Palin Is Becoming An Embarrasement To Her Own Party

[copernicus 0]

Yeah but in some sense it will have to be that way. We are talking about what to do with the future. You never really know what's going to work until you do it. All a politician running for office can do is detail his/her plans and the reasons behind them.

And its up to us to figure out who's lying (more).

[vbnautilus 48]

Again, I dont buy it. Id like to see some numbers supporting that a reverse Bradley effect was what caused the differences and to what extent.

The magnitude of the difference between poll results and election results for Obama across states was related to the proportion of black voters in the state. I'll pull up references later if necessary.

[copernicus 0]

The magnitude of the difference between poll results and election results for Obama across states was related to the proportion of black voters in the state. I'll pull up references later if necessary.

when you get a chance Id like to see them.

[AngloBoy 0]

And its up to us to figure out who's lying (more).

But that's why History has seen this tactic work so many times before, and why the future will see it work again in the future.Most people don't vote with their heads they vote with their hearts. If you can get them emotional, and give them hope, they will run with you.

[copernicus 0]

But that's why History has seen this tactic work so many times before, and why the future will see it work again in the future.Most people don't vote with their heads they vote with their hearts. If you can get them emotional, and give them hope, they will run with you.

Not the undecideds that will swing this election.

[CaneBrain 95]

1-1.5% is far from irrelevant in this election.

At this point it is. At a later time, it might not be (depending on the specific state and what not).

[CaneBrain 95]

Plus, I think Reagan's positions were clear, he had a direction. "Change and hope" isn't a position, it's a soundbite. When pressed for details Obama constantly flip-flops and contradicts himself, depending on his audience on hand. Reagan never felt a need to flip flop (although he certainly failed when given a chance to cut govt -- he wasted a golden opportunity.)But yeah, I think at some level the appeal of Obama and Reagan are the same -- a message of optimism and change. But the similarity ends there.

I really think this is not a statement you can make yet. Reagan is remembered for his actions as President not for his message during a campaign. I think people are taking what both candidates say too seriously. Both have promised way more than they can ever deliver. If Obama is elected, then we will found out if he is more than a message of optimism and change.And people hate on flip-flopping way too much. Sometimes changing your mind makes sense. Obama was against drilling. Then, he said, if it helps get a comprehensive energy packed passed he can live with some more drilling. I dont see how something like that is a big deal. Circumstances change.....minds should be able to change as well.

[Nimue1995 1]

Not the undecideds that will swing this election.

LOL and you say you have no faith Cope? What makes you think those undecideds are any more than people that just haven't been paying attention or don't even care? But you have faith that somehow they'll go with McCain anyway.

[Sal Paradise 57]

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/04/j...alin-hypocrisy/This one?

that was awesome. "but in dick morris' defense, he's a lying piece of shit." haha.

Not the undecideds that will swing this election.

I think I have to disagree with you on your stance on the undecideds being "thinkers." I'm pretty much of the opinion that anybody who is undecided at this point really hasn't been paying attention at all either because they're too busy playing fantasy football or talking about what happened on desperate housewives. I'm a firm believer that most people in the world are incredibly stupid. anybody with any intelligence has been paying close attention to this election and has pretty much made up their mind, at least 90% of the way. the ones left over, or the "undecideds", are the ones who typically couldn't care less about politics but will probably make their decision at the last minute. people that do this don't respond to logic and reasoning or what they consider is truly best for the country, but they respond to base emotions and visual appeal, both of which obama holds an advantage in.

[Loismustdie 0]

that was awesome. "but in dick morris' defense, he's a lying piece of shit." haha.I think I have to disagree with you on your stance on the undecideds being "thinkers." I'm pretty much of the opinion that anybody who is undecided at this point really hasn't been paying attention at all either because they're too busy playing fantasy football or talking about what happened on desperate housewives. I'm a firm believer that most people in the world are incredibly stupid. anybody with any intelligence has been paying close attention to this election and has pretty much made up their mind, at least 90% of the way. the ones left over, or the "undecideds", are the ones who typically couldn't care less about politics but will probably make their decision at the last minute. people that do this don't respond to logic and reasoning or what they consider is truly best for the country, but they respond to base emotions and visual appeal, both of which obama holds an advantage in.

I think most undecideds would find this to be a complete fabrication of what they are about.

[copernicus 0]

LOL and you say you have no faith Cope? What makes you think those undecideds are any more than people that just haven't been paying attention or don't even care? But you have faith that somehow they'll go with McCain anyway.

Because those who dont care and arent paying attention at this point arent voting. I dont have "faith" that anyone will go in a particular way. All the candidates can do is make sure they communicate the issues in a way thats understood.

[Sal Paradise 57]

I think most undecideds would find this to be a complete fabrication of what they are about.

of course they would, they're stupid.

[CaneBrain 95]

I think most undecideds would find this to be a complete fabrication of what they are about.

There is no end to people's ability to delude themselves. Just because they think it is a fabrication does not mean Sal is wrong. I think he has pretty much nailed 60-75% of the undecideds. There are some people who have considered all the issues and been paying attention and they just cant decide. But that group strikes me as a small one.

[vbnautilus 48]

when you get a chance Id like to see them.

I don't normally link to blogs, but this one has some actual data on it, as well as some additional arguments for why the bradley effect is in question:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/per...ley-effect.htmlAlso a link to a Harvard paper showing that the Wilder/Bradley effect which existed in the past no longer exists:http://people.iq.harvard.edu/%7Edhopkins/wilder13.pdf

[Loismustdie 0]

I got your embarassment right here, DN.