antistuff 0 Posted September 21, 2008 Share Posted September 21, 2008 I am not seeing anybody cap with anything except aces, kings, and aks in this game at this limit. the player in question has played 15 hands and not raised preflop once yet. there is also a timing thing here, he is hitting the button as fast as he can, his actions are normally a little paused. i really want to fold this turn. Full Tilt PokerLimit Holdem Ring gameLimit: $2/$46 playersConverterPre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with K K UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Button calls, Hero calls.Flop: 2 5 T (12.5SB, 3 players)Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Button folds, Hero calls.Turn: 9 (9.75BB, 2 players)Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero?? Link to post Share on other sites
SGFULTON83 0 Posted September 21, 2008 Share Posted September 21, 2008 I am not seeing anybody cap with anything except aces, kings, and aks in this game at this limit. the player in question has played 15 hands and not raised preflop once yet. there is also a timing thing here, he is hitting the button as fast as he can, his actions are normally a little paused. i really want to fold this turn. Full Tilt PokerLimit Holdem Ring gameLimit: $2/$46 playersConverterPre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with K K UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Button calls, Hero calls.Flop: 2 5 T (12.5SB, 3 players)Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Button folds, Hero calls.Turn: 9 (9.75BB, 2 players)Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero??Very possible you are up against AA, I slow way down here with all the possibilities out there, but I think fold would be the best move here. I put villian on AA or trips. If you can't see laying it down then call, and c/c the river. Only hands you can beat is QQ or JJ Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Show Down Monkey thinks he has AA at least 70% of the time, and even the flush got their, but he still thinks calling down is pretty much the play. 'Nanars: shipped, imo. Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 (Implied value: in a short game, you really want the good, aggressive players to see you fold after capping the first two rounds?) Link to post Share on other sites
AdamC 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Well, at this point, there's $42 in the pot, and you're putting in $4. Whether you put him on two pair, pocket aces, or trips, the math doesn't change. You'd need a king, and there are two left. You're about 8% to hit, and you'd have to put in what amounts to 9% of the pot, so on direct numbers. Implied odds if you do hit would take the pot over the amount neccesary to call. In no limit, you would fold, I think, but here I'd have to call. Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Well, at this point, there's $42 in the pot, and you're putting in $4. Whether you put him on two pair, pocket aces, or trips, the math doesn't change. You'd need a king, and there are two left. You're about 8% to hit, and you'd have to put in what amounts to 9% of the pot, so on direct numbers. Implied odds if you do hit would take the pot over the amount neccesary to call.It's not about drawing to a king, it's about our equity against his range. There are hands in it we beat. Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 I'm folding this never. Calldown and scoop when he shows you QQ. Link to post Share on other sites
checkymcfold 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 you need at least 2-300 hands on a guy before you're even considering folding KK to this guy, or see him limp QQ, maybe. Link to post Share on other sites
Biff Goods 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 if he is SO tight that he is ONLY capping AA or KK then why is he leading out when the flush hits on the turn leaving himself open for a check raise when he is drawing slim or dead? Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 if he is SO tight that he is ONLY capping AA or KK then why is he leading out when the flush hits on the turn leaving himself open for a check raise when he is drawing slim or dead?its HU and he has the ace of clubs so there is no way i could have a flush? Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 its HU and he has the ace of clubs so there is no way i could have a flush?Not that I think this is particularly relevant to the question at hand, but even if he has the Ac, QcJc and KcQc are almost always in my range here, and KcJc at least half the time. Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Not that I think this is particularly relevant to the question at hand, but even if has the Ac, QcJc and KcQc are almost always in my range here, and KcJc at least half the time.i had a brain fart, you are absolutly correct. Link to post Share on other sites
SGFULTON83 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Results? Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Results?i hit a king and raised his aces. Link to post Share on other sites
AdamC 0 Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 It's not about drawing to a king, it's about our equity against his range. There are hands in it we beat.I'm thinking about what I need to win this hand under the worst circumstances as a method of showing him that there is NO reason to fold. He felt like he was against aces, and based on that read, you do the math with the worst in mind, and that means drawing to the king. And as it turned out, that's exactly what was happening. Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 i don't have the odds to draw to a king. Link to post Share on other sites
checkymcfold 0 Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 I'm thinking about what I need to win this hand under the worst circumstances as a method of showing him that there is NO reason to fold. He felt like he was against aces, and based on that read, you do the math with the worst in mind, and that means drawing to the king. And as it turned out, that's exactly what was happening.if he is sure the guy has aces, he should fold his kings. the argument we're making is that he can't have enough info on the guy to do that over his sample size, even if it does lean very, very close to it. Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 I'm thinking about what I need to win this hand under the worst circumstances as a method of showing him that there is NO reason to fold. He felt like he was against aces, and based on that read, you do the math with the worst in mind, and that means drawing to the king. And as it turned out, that's exactly what was happening.You don't do the math vs. the one hand you "put him on." You calculate your equity vs. his entire range. We do not have enough information to say AA is his entire range (and probably never will.) This is a calldown every time given this situation/information. We aren't expecting to win very often, but folding can be a gigantic mistake. Calling down is pretty much never a very big mistake. Make your marginal laydowns with the bottom of your range. Don't try to be a hero. Link to post Share on other sites
wrto4556 0 Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 noone wants to cap the flop against a basic unknown? Link to post Share on other sites
Mattnxtc 0 Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 noone wants to cap the flop against a basic unknown?That was my first instinct and would probably do it 100% of the time on a flop like this. I would slow down on the turn though and just b/c Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 Yeah, I didn't comment on flop play, but I'm capping flop and b/c most of the time. If I do just call the flop 3 bet, it's because I'm c/r the turn. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 Interesting thread.I also cap the flop. As played, I call down. He doesn't have to have QQ all that often for us to be profitable here. Link to post Share on other sites
RabidTortuga 0 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 I'm late to the party, but my first thought was this is QQ and JJ exactly as often as it's AA and TT. I love the button mash read, though, almost like he's clicking "raise any" before the action gets to him.I'm calling down here all the time. Link to post Share on other sites
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