DinkDonk 1 Posted September 21, 2008 Share Posted September 21, 2008 Although your theory is pertinent, it isn't in line with contrairanism. Contrarianism is simply the idea that the majority of people are wrong so bet the other way. If a line moved across a number..that in itself could make me look at it more closely. To be an effective true contrarianist... you would have to play every single game for the numbers to have any true value. To simply say that the masses are generally wrong so taking the Panthers against the Vikes makes that a good bet is false. Good luck everyone!While this is pretty true, it's not at all the basis of the theory. I'm going to go do something more productive and smash my face into a wall, though. GL Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted September 21, 2008 Author Share Posted September 21, 2008 While true this is pretty true, it's not at all the basis of the theory. I'm going to go do something more productive and smash my face into a wall, though. GLThat seems to work well for me sometimes too.Washington -3 over Ari Won 2 unitsDog of the week is Cinn +13.5 at Giants Won 2 unitsLong game of the week Minn -3 over Carol Won 6 unitsTotal for the year: + 29 unitsIf I could play the Dallas game.... which I can not... I would go 5 units on Dallas -3. Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 I like Under 50.5 in the Dallas/GB game tonight.I love SD -9 and really love under 44.5 tomorrow. Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 That seems to work well for me sometimes too.Washington -3 over Ari Won 2 unitsDog of the week is Cinn +13.5 at Giants Won 2 unitsLong game of the week Minn -3 over Carol Won 6 unitsTotal for the year: + 29 unitsIf I could play the Dallas game.... which I can not... I would go 5 units on Dallas -3.Heh. Ok I'll take the bait. The idea is that since the bookmakers can handicap a lot better than we can, no handicapping we do is going to give us an advantage. They know what a good line is for a game. They also know where everyone bets. In order to either balance action or gain a larger advantage, they will move the line to account for public opinion. Since the public generally has a very poor perception of teams and games, and the bookmakers have a great perception on those things, why would we bet with the public and against the books?The line will be moved to garner more action from the generally wrong public. I want to be on the side that isn't drooling on itself calling in for -EV action. You are welcome to do what you wish with your money, I am simply attempting to explain the theory.BTW are you and BigDMcgee friends? Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Heh. Ok I'll take the bait. The idea is that since the bookmakers can handicap a lot better than we can, no handicapping we do is going to give us an advantage. They know what a good line is for a game. They also know where everyone bets. In order to either balance action or gain a larger advantage, they will move the line to account for public opinion. Since the public generally has a very poor perception of teams and games, and the bookmakers have a great perception on those things, why would we bet with the public and against the books?The line will be moved to garner more action from the generally wrong public. I want to be on the side that isn't drooling on itself calling in for -EV action. You are welcome to do what you wish with your money, I am simply attempting to explain the theory.BTW are you and BigDMcgee friends?I think you misunderstood me... I wasn't making fun of you or anything.... I was agreeing with you. I understand the theory.I don't know BigDMcgee. Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 I like Under 50.5 in the Dallas/GB game tonight.I love SD -9 and really love under 44.5 tomorrow.I also LOVE the unders on the Dallas game...but I am not allowed to play on this game. I'll dig into tomorrows game and get back with you in a bit on my thoughts for MNF. Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 3-0 +10 units for NFLI wish I could have placed that 5 unit bet on the Cowboys..... but...whatever... How bout them BOYS !?!? Link to post Share on other sites
showstopper24 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 The Browns are so god dam awful. Derek Anderson should drop dead. I'd rather watch a gold fish be our quarterback. BRADY! BRADY! BRADY! Link to post Share on other sites
ltrainkoja55 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 That seems to work well for me sometimes too.Washington -3 over Ari Won 2 unitsDog of the week is Cinn +13.5 at Giants Won 2 unitsLong game of the week Minn -3 over Carol Won 6 unitsTotal for the year: + 29 unitsIf I could play the Dallas game.... which I can not... I would go 5 units on Dallas -3.Hey Hollywood-- I am a Dallas Fan as well so you are always okay in my book but you have to start putting these plays in before the games are over. I am drinking because Dallas games make me nervous but it seems that you say your winning bets are after the games are completed. I have been drinking so tell me if I am wrong. I also do not understand how a Dallas fan can bet for the skins. Seems like not betting on dallas, you should not be able to pick skins games. Same bias judgement! I bet against the skins and lost. I feel like I lost because of my own bias. I feel like you have a good feel for games but you need to post before kickoffs. Go Cowboys my friend! Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy Hillis 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Hey Hollywood-- I am a Dallas Fan as well so you are always okay in my book but you have to start putting these plays in before the games are over. I am drinking because Dallas games make me nervous but it seems that you say your winning bets are after the games are completed. I have been drinking so tell me if I am wrong. I also do not understand how a Dallas fan can bet for the skins. Seems like not betting on dallas, you should not be able to pick skins games. Same bias judgement! I bet against the skins and lost. I feel like I lost because of my own bias. I feel like you have a good feel for games but you need to post before kickoffs. Go Cowboys my friend!Are you drinking? Link to post Share on other sites
ltrainkoja55 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Are you drinking?yes i am --- point? Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Hey Hollywood-- I am a Dallas Fan as well so you are always okay in my book but you have to start putting these plays in before the games are over. I am drinking because Dallas games make me nervous but it seems that you say your winning bets are after the games are completed. I have been drinking so tell me if I am wrong. I also do not understand how a Dallas fan can bet for the skins. Seems like not betting on dallas, you should not be able to pick skins games. Same bias judgement! I bet against the skins and lost. I feel like I lost because of my own bias. I feel like you have a good feel for games but you need to post before kickoffs. Go Cowboys my friend!I did put these games in before they were over. Look who started this thread. These were posted days before kickoff.I don't bet against the skins just because I hate them. My hatred for any team doesn't cloud my mind like my love for the Boys does. Link to post Share on other sites
ltrainkoja55 0 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 I did put these games in before they were over. Look who started this thread. These were posted days before kickoff.I don't bet against the skins just because I hate them. My hatred for any team doesn't cloud my mind like my love for the Boys does.woops--- my apologies--- that is why you have a winning record while i am .500 and losing due to juice---- congrats on a good sunday! Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 looks like Vegas was right on with the Vikings line but they were way off with the Atl-KC game. If Atlanta was a 7.5 point fav against KC as they should have been I would have been all over it. Instead the short line of 4.5 made me take KC. Great week for me overall survived my survivor pool with Buff. The pool is down to 500 already with a 1000 players out in the first 3 weeks. Clev is going to have a rough year because of there schedule always look at which Conference crossover div each Div will play they got the 2 toughest div to play against NFC East and AFC SouthTENN, JACK, INDY, Houston, PHili, Wash, Dall, NYGiants. Also the 2 add on games are @ buff and home to Den. They do not have one easy game.When betting team wins over under always look at which teams will get NFC west and AFC east, as well as what the 2 addon games are. Link to post Share on other sites
Sam Donaldson 0 Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 Betting against the Jets seems to be a good thing so far. Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 Betting against the Jets seems to be a good thing so far.I think avoiding Jets and Patriots games right now is a good idea. Link to post Share on other sites
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