CaneBrain 95 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 Bottom line:There's really no real way for McCain to pull this thing off if he doesn't take Pennsylvania. If he can win that state, he has several scenarios to the White House (he'd still need to get lucky in other states, but it's realistic). If he doesn't, he's going home with the parting gift.I think we'll know pretty early on if this is going to be an Obama victory or if it's going to be a nail biter based on early Pennsylvania polls. Those are the ones I'm going to be looking at on Tuesday. If they resemble the current polls, McCain's going to lose. In order for me to get nervous on election day, I'd have to see the early Penn. polls start to be noticeably different from what we're seeing right now. If not, we're going to know who the next President is before 5 o'clock.qft Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 Bottom line:There's really no real way for McCain to pull this thing off if he doesn't take Pennsylvania. If he can win that state, he has several scenarios to the White House (he'd still need to get lucky in other states, but it's realistic). If he doesn't, he's going home with the parting gift.I think we'll know pretty early on if this is going to be an Obama victory or if it's going to be a nail biter based on early Pennsylvania polls. Those are the ones I'm going to be looking at on Tuesday. If they resemble the current polls, McCain's going to lose. In order for me to get nervous on election day, I'd have to see the early Penn. polls start to be noticeably different from what we're seeing right now. If not, we're going to know who the next President is before 5 o'clock.youre going to have to wait for the results, not the exit polls. Link to post Share on other sites
Flushgarden 0 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 The exit polls have been very wrong in the past. Link to post Share on other sites
85suited 0 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 There will be a legal challenge if some how mccain wins - you will wait for monthsFYP Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 FYPI only expect courts to get involved if McCain loses and Ohio is the difference maker. Link to post Share on other sites
RealMagnetic 0 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 I was just reading about the Bradley Effect. It is based on an election that happened in 1982. In all likelihood they have improved the polling methods since then to minimize of even eliminate any errors. You know how quickly things evolve in this country! So the effect may be minimal. Link to post Share on other sites
Flushgarden 0 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 I'm starting to feel like McCain has a real chance. On the yahoo political dashboard McCain is trending up in PA, OH, VA, and NC, which are obviously key for him. If the trend continues he can definitely take them all down...it may come down to Florida again. If he wins those states he doesn't need to win any of the western battleground states. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 I was just reading about the Bradley Effect. It is based on an election that happened in 1982. In all likelihood they have improved the polling methods since then to minimize of even eliminate any errors. You know how quickly things evolve in this country! So the effect may be minimal.They dont adjust for it because there isnt large enough a sample to make an assessment of its value. There are also more recent possible examples, including Bobby Jindal in 2003. You may even see a "reverse" Bradley effect, with Black voters unwilling to tell a pollster that they arent voting for Obama. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 I'm starting to feel like McCain has a real chance. On the yahoo political dashboard McCain is trending up in PA, OH, VA, and NC, which are obviously key for him. If the trend continues he can definitely take them all down...it may come down to Florida again. If he wins those states he doesn't need to win any of the western battleground states.Thats McCain's 3% chance. He has to win PA, OH, VA, NC and FL. He literally cannot win the election without all five of those states. I dont think he will even get 4 but thats just a guess I suppose. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 Thats McCain's 3% chance. He has to win PA, OH, VA, NC and FL. He literally cannot win the election without all five of those states. I dont think he will even get 4 but thats just a guess I suppose.If he can swing CO then he can lose VA or NC. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Level? I sure hope so.GW/Battleground Bush +4Rasmussen Bush +1.7TIPP +2.6FOX News Kerry +2CNN/USAT/Gallup Bush +2CBS/NY Times Bush +3 (oops liberal elites got it right on!!!)ARG Kerry +1Newsweek Bush +6realclearpolitics avg 2004 Bush +22004 results Bush +3POLLS ARE ALWAYS WRONG!!!realclearpolitics avg 2008 Obama +6.4MCCAIN IS REALLY UP!!!I didn't say McCain was really up. Nice reading.Bottom line:There's really no real way for McCain to pull this thing off if he doesn't take Pennsylvania. If he can win that state, he has several scenarios to the White House (he'd still need to get lucky in other states, but it's realistic). If he doesn't, he's going home with the parting gift.I think we'll know pretty early on if this is going to be an Obama victory or if it's going to be a nail biter based on early Pennsylvania polls. Those are the ones I'm going to be looking at on Tuesday. If they resemble the current polls, McCain's going to lose. In order for me to get nervous on election day, I'd have to see the early Penn. polls start to be noticeably different from what we're seeing right now. If not, we're going to know who the next President is before 5 o'clock.I don't think McCain has a real chance. I just hope the map doesn't look completely blue. That 1984 map would make me want to kill myself if I was a dem. I don't want to experience that. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 I don't think McCain has a real chance. I just hope the map doesn't look completely blue. That 1984 map would make me want to kill myself if I was a dem. I don't want to experience that. that's ridiculous. Link to post Share on other sites
RealMagnetic 0 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 Hey, well the republicans are due for an buttkicking right??? Link to post Share on other sites
akoff 0 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 that's ridiculous.oh happy times from the 80's....que the music. oh what a night.... Link to post Share on other sites
akoff 0 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 that's ridiculous. Link to post Share on other sites
Nimue1995 1 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 Ahh those were the days back when Montana had 4 electorial votes. Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 that's ridiculous.I agree. What kind of insane state would vote for Mondale over Reagan? Link to post Share on other sites
strategy's_touch 0 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 I agree. What kind of insane state would vote for Mondale over Reagan?the very same that will be putting al franken into the senate Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 the very same that will be putting al franken into the senate....and Jesse "the body" Ventura as the governor. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 the very same that will be putting al franken into the senateDont count on it. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Ahh those were the days back when Montana had 4 electorial votes. ..and Iowa had 8. But most importantly... CA only had 47. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Dont count on it.intrade has it split pretty evenly. intrade also has obama winning in a landslide... Link to post Share on other sites
Fluffdog87 2 Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Go Obama! Link to post Share on other sites
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