gobears 0 Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I'm surprised at the double digit leads in these two battleground states - obv it's all about the economy now.New state polls out today in New Hampshire and Virginia show good numbers continuing for Obama. Two new polls in Virginia and one in New Hampshire show him leading by double-digits:VirginiaSuffolkObama 51McCain 39SurveyUSAObama 53 (+2 vs. last poll, Sept. 19-21)McCain 43 (-2)Obama now leads by 4.9 points in the RCP Average for VirginiaNew HampshireSurveyUSAObama 53McCain 40Obama leads by 8.0 points in the RCP Average for New Hampshire Link to post Share on other sites
flyingdonkey 0 Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Nice to see the Obama's numbers are getting better after Palin's "win" in the debate. Link to post Share on other sites
fatman 1 Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Nice to see the Obama's numbers are getting better after Palin's "win" in the debate.It's got nothing to do with the debate. Unless something big happens this election is obviously all about the economy. Link to post Share on other sites
vbnautilus 48 Posted October 8, 2008 Share Posted October 8, 2008 Obama has risen above the nomination line for the first time in the view that excludes states closer than 5%. Link to post Share on other sites
SCYUKON 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Here - Political statistics as done by a poker player. Obama in a landslide according to his research. Math dudes- take a lookhttp://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Here - Political statistics as done by a poker player. Obama in a landslide according to his research. Math dudes- take a lookhttp://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ the only thing important now is the calendar. Kerry was a lock at this point also. Link to post Share on other sites
vbnautilus 48 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 the only thing important now is the calendar. Kerry was a lock at this point also.No he wasn't. 2004:2008: Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 No he wasn't. 2004:2008:Popular vote. and there was no Bradley effect to deal with. Link to post Share on other sites
flyingdonkey 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Popular vote. and there was no Bradley effect to deal with.Since he's half black does the mean the Bradley Effect will be cut in half?!With the increased AA and youth vote, it will be more than enough to trump the supposed Bradley Effect. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Since he's half black does the mean the Bradley Effect will be cut in half?!With the increased AA and youth vote, it will be more than enough to trump the supposed Bradley Effect.You dont understand what the Bradley effect is. And the youth vote? Why will they show up this time? Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 My contention has always been that this will be closer than anyone thinks, regardless of the polls. Link to post Share on other sites
flyingdonkey 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 You dont understand what the Bradley effect is. And the youth vote? Why will they show up this time?Poor Cop... no sense of humor. Anyways... yeah I do know what the Bradley Effect is.Also, don't for get the "white guy who is afraid to tell his friends he's going to vote for a black guy" vote. I'm sure BG and Nutzbuster fall into that category. Am I right? Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Poor Cop... no sense of humor. Anyways... yeah I do know what the Bradley Effect is.then your statement makes no sense. Link to post Share on other sites
flyingdonkey 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 then your statement makes no sense.Sigh... Link to post Share on other sites
vbnautilus 48 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 You dont understand what the Bradley effect is. And the youth vote? Why will they show up this time?It's another bias in the polls because they can't get cell-phone only households which are primarily younger voters. Current polls therefore tend to underestimate the youth vote. Also, I'll see if I can find the popular vote polls from 2004 october but I'm very skeptical that Kerry had a real lead in October or that he was "a lock" in any sense. Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Bradely rules... Link to post Share on other sites
vbnautilus 48 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 OK found it. This time in 2004 Bush was ahead 46% to 45%. http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htmIn fact in 2004 neither candidate ever crossed the 50% mark like Obama has. This is not the same situation as 2004. Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 It's another bias in the polls because they can't get cell-phone only households which are primarily younger voters. Current polls therefore tend to underestimate the youth vote. Also, I'll see if I can find the popular vote polls from 2004 october but I'm very skeptical that Kerry had a real lead in October or that he was "a lock" in any sense.I can't remember exactly (I want to say it was a Newt radio interview?) where they said, like 2 days before the election, that Kerry had a combined 7% overall lead over Bush. Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 OK found it. This time in 2004 Bush was ahead 46% to 45%. http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm well, there ya go Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 It's another bias in the polls because they can't get cell-phone only households which are primarily younger voters. Current polls therefore tend to underestimate the youth vote. Also, I'll see if I can find the popular vote polls from 2004 october but I'm very skeptical that Kerry had a real lead in October or that he was "a lock" in any sense.They are adjusting for cell phone only households, as much as 10%. He had a 7% lead at this point, according to CNN. Link to post Share on other sites
vbnautilus 48 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 He had a 7% lead at this point, according to CNN.Where are you getting that from?Tipp: Bush 47 Kerry 44GWU: Bush 49 Kerry 46Zogby: BUsh 46 Kerry 45ABC:CNN/USA Today/Gallup, October 10: Bush 48 Kerry 50Check here: http://www.pollingreport2.com/wh2004a.htm Bush was ahead in 47/50 polls taken thoughout October across all polling companies. . I just don't see how you can support the statement that Kerry was a lock at this time in 2004. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Where are you getting that from?Tipp: Bush 47 Kerry 44GWU: Bush 49 Kerry 46Zogby: BUsh 46 Kerry 45ABC:CNN/USA Today/Gallup, October 10: Bush 48 Kerry 50Check here: http://www.pollingreport2.com/wh2004a.htm Bush was ahead in 47/50 polls taken thoughout October across all polling companies. . I just don't see how you can support the statement that Kerry was a lock at this time in 2004.I dont know where CNN got it. And I see youre still ducking the question in the Ayers thread. Link to post Share on other sites
vbnautilus 48 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 I dont know where CNN got it. And I see youre still ducking the question in the Ayers thread.No, I mean where do you get your info about the CNN poll, the link I posted shows CNN Kerry +2. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 No, I mean where do you get your info about the CNN poll, the link I posted shows CNN Kerry +2.I dont know if it was a CNN poll. I was watching CNN and they said "At this point Kerry had a 7 point lead in________" I dont know if it was their poll, the Smurf poll, whatever. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Obama (according to the polls which I only trust so much) has a much bigger lead at this point than Gore or Kerry had. Much bigger. There is no need to ignore reality. That said, this election is not over. Not at all. Link to post Share on other sites
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