Current Polls

[Nimue1995 1]

what part of the economy is "****ed for at least 4-5 years" If thats supoosedly the entire economy its nonsense. Oh...unless there are tax increases. In that case we are "****ed "

You're such a ray of sunshine Cope.

[copernicus 0]

You're such a ray of sunshine Cope.

Actually there is lots of sunshine in my statement. Just dont let the "if" happen.

[CaneBrain 95]

Obama's lead grows. USA Today poll (most unbiased I could find) had Obama winning the debate (I thought he tied....but apparently expectations for him were low).McCain is in real trouble thanks to the economic woes. Should have picked Romney.....the shine is off Palin.

[copernicus 0]

Obama's lead grows. USA Today poll (most unbiased I could find) had Obama winning the debate (I thought he tied....but apparently expectations for him were low).McCain is in real trouble thanks to the economic woes. Should have picked Romney.....the shine is off Palin.

Swing states are still up in the air, and McCain has actually improved in a couple and slipped in a couple. The shine isn't off Palin with conservative voters which is all she was intended to capture. She had 60,000 people turn out for a rally last week. If she's a disaster in the debate that could change, but I don't think she will be.And dont count on the economy helping Obama if things get worse. There can be a flight to experience as easily as flight to change.The election still comes down to a handful of votes in a handful of states.

[CaneBrain 95]

Swing states are still up in the air, and McCain has actually improved in a couple and slipped in a couple. The shine isn't off Palin with conservative voters which is all she was intended to capture. She had 60,000 people turn out for a rally last week. If she's a disaster in the debate that could change, but I don't think she will be.And dont count on the economy helping Obama if things get worse. There can be a flight to experience as easily as flight to change.The election still comes down to a handful of votes in a handful of states.

My point about Palin was that she does nothing to help them with undecideds now because of the economy. Romney would have helped there. (Big AP story this morning about how a bunch of undecideds have left the fence for Obama in the last week)fwiw, I think she will be ok in the debate.....she was good at the convention and she will have plenty of prep time. Plus, Biden is a dope and debating a woman requires some caution and subtlety....not Biden's strong suits. But she sounded ridiculous on the Couric interview and she is just as much an economic novice as McCain (he admitted it himself...a mistake) and Obama keeps getting stronger on polls that ask about the economy.I was looking at the electoral map today online.....and McCain really needs to win Ohio and Florida and Viriginia and North Carolina and Nevada to win this thing. All the other states look locked in. So that is quite a task.....to win all five toss-up states. Unless, there are a lot of people lying about wanting to vote for Obama which as we know is possible.....fun to play around with: http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboardI found a tie scenario too:McCain wins: TX, FL, OH, NC, SC, GA, MS, AL, AK, AZ, NV, ID, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, UT, MO, LA, AR, TN, KY, IN, NH, WV, VA, = 269 electoral votesObama wins: WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, HI, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, NJ, MD, DC, DE, CT, RI, MA, ME, VT = 269 electoral votes

[copernicus 0]

My point about Palin was that she does nothing to help them with undecideds now because of the economy. Romney would have helped there. (Big AP story this morning about how a bunch of undecideds have left the fence for Obama in the last week)fwiw, I think she will be ok in the debate.....she was good at the convention and she will have plenty of prep time. Plus, Biden is a dope and debating a woman requires some caution and subtlety....not Biden's strong suits. But she sounded ridiculous on the Couric interview and she is just as much an economic novice as McCain (he admitted it himself...a mistake) and Obama keeps getting stronger on polls that ask about the economy.I was looking at the electoral map today online.....and McCain really needs to win Ohio and Florida and Viriginia and North Carolina and Nevada to win this thing. All the other states look locked in. So that is quite a task.....to win all five toss-up states. Unless, there are a lot of people lying about wanting to vote for Obama which as we know is possible.....fun to play around with: http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboardI found a tie scenario too:McCain wins: TX, FL, OH, NC, SC, GA, MS, AL, AK, AZ, NV, ID, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, UT, MO, LA, AR, TN, KY, IN, NH, WV, VA, = 269 electoral votesObama wins: WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, HI, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, NJ, MD, DC, DE, CT, RI, MA, ME, VT = 269 electoral votes

There are other states far from locked in, and the Bradley effect isnt considered in any of the polls (by definition). MI,OR and WA in particular are from Obama locks.As I said weeks ago, Obama will be a 52:48 favorite going into the elections, and thats too close for his comfort given the Bradley effect.

[Nimue1995 1]

My point about Palin was that she does nothing to help them with undecideds now because of the economy. Romney would have helped there. (Big AP story this morning about how a bunch of undecideds have left the fence for Obama in the last week)fwiw, I think she will be ok in the debate.....she was good at the convention and she will have plenty of prep time. Plus, Biden is a dope and debating a woman requires some caution and subtlety....not Biden's strong suits. But she sounded ridiculous on the Couric interview and she is just as much an economic novice as McCain (he admitted it himself...a mistake) and Obama keeps getting stronger on polls that ask about the economy.I was looking at the electoral map today online.....and McCain really needs to win Ohio and Florida and Viriginia and North Carolina and Nevada to win this thing. All the other states look locked in. So that is quite a task.....to win all five toss-up states. Unless, there are a lot of people lying about wanting to vote for Obama which as we know is possible.....fun to play around with: http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboardI found a tie scenario too:McCain wins: TX, FL, OH, NC, SC, GA, MS, AL, AK, AZ, NV, ID, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, UT, MO, LA, AR, TN, KY, IN, NH, WV, VA, = 269 electoral votesObama wins: WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, HI, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, NJ, MD, DC, DE, CT, RI, MA, ME, VT = 269 electoral votes

Doesn't it go to the House for the tiebreaker then? That could be bad for McCain. Or is it the Senate? Either one would be bad for McCain.

[vbnautilus 48]

I was looking at the electoral map today online.....and McCain really needs to win Ohio and Florida and Viriginia and North Carolina and Nevada to win this thing. All the other states look locked in.

Other states that are not "locked in" for Obama: CO, MN, MI, NH. CO & NH in particular are all over the place. Although McCain being so close in NC is a really bad sign for him I think. I agree with the gist of your post that almost everything will have to go McCain's way to win this thing. But these things swing back and forth, and all that matters is which way it is swinging on Nov 4 (see the EV count over time below).

[copernicus 0]

Doesn't it go to the House for the tiebreaker then? That could be bad for McCain. Or is it the Senate? Either one would be bad for McCain.

It goes to the House, but each state gets one vote, period. Given the number of smaller states that are Red, if the state goes with their popular vote, it would probably be a McCain win.

[hblask 1]

Doesn't it go to the House for the tiebreaker then?

I thought it went to the Florida supreme court first.

[copernicus 0]

I thought it went to the Florida supreme court first.

Only if the Republicans win the EV and the Dems run to FL to turn it into a tie.

[Pack149 0]

Although McCain being so close in NC is a really bad sign for him I think. I agree with the gist of your post that almost everything will have to go McCain's way to win this thing.

I live in NC. I honestly dont think Obama has a chance here no matter how close the polls are now

[KramitDaToad 0]

Doesn't it go to the House for the tiebreaker then? That could be bad for McCain. Or is it the Senate? Either one would be bad for McCain.

House for the President. Senate for the VP.If the house is undecided by late Jan (inauguration day), the VP-elect gets the job until the house works it out. (Which would likely be Biden as it stands now) However if the Senate is also undecided (and we're at a huge chain of ifs now) Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female President.

[copernicus 0]

House for the President. Senate for the VP.If the house is undecided by late Jan (inauguration day), the VP-elect gets the job until the house works it out. (Which would likely be Biden as it stands now) However if the Senate is also undecided (and we're at a huge chain of ifs now) Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female President.

Be careful when you day "the House for President". Its the house with 1 state = 1 vote. That is critical when the EV tie is decided by a minority of larger blue states.

[KramitDaToad 0]

Be careful when you day "the House for President". Its the house with 1 state = 1 vote. That is critical when the EV tie is decided by a minority of larger blue states.

I know, however don't the Dems 'control' 27 states in the house now along with expectations to add a few more in November

[copernicus 0]

I know, however don't the Dems 'control' 27 states in the house now along with expectations to add a few more in November

These economic problems could shift things back to the GOP (number of states with "Dem control", not the overall number of seats). Thats why the Dems wont pass the bailout on their own...they are afraid they will lose seats if they pass the bailout and things dont improve. Also casting a vote for that is different than a popular vote loss threatens their future seats. But the chances of a tie are almost nil, so why ruminate about it.

[Nimue1995 1]

House for the President. Senate for the VP.If the house is undecided by late Jan (inauguration day), the VP-elect gets the job until the house works it out. (Which would likely be Biden as it stands now) However if the Senate is also undecided (and we're at a huge chain of ifs now) Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female President.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! HORROR STORY!!!!!!

[KramitDaToad 0]

I thought it went to the Florida supreme court first.

Not if things keep going this wayFlorida Polls

Quinnipiac				09/27 - 09/29	836 LV	51	43	Obama +8PPP (D)				09/27 - 09/28	941 LV	49	46	Obama +3FOX News/Rasmussen	09/28 - 09/28	500 LV	47	47	TieSurveyUSA			09/27 - 09/28	599 LV	47	48	McCain +1

If McCain can't stem the tide here he is in trouble

[CaneBrain 95]

I really did not think Obama could win Florida but maybe I was wrong. Still a long way to go but....(from the AP) WASHINGTON - Recently trailing or tied, Democrat Barack Obama now leads Republican John McCain in a trio of the most critical, vote-rich states five weeks before the election, according to presidential poll results released Wednesday.The Democrat's support jumped to 50 percent or above in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania in Quinnipiac University surveys taken during the weekend — after the opening presidential debate and during Monday's dramatic stock market plunge as the House rejected a $700 billion financial bailout plan.Combined, these states offer 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory on Election Day, Nov. 4.Pollsters attributed Obama's improved standing to the public's general approval of his debate performance, antipathy toward GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and heightened confidence in the Illinois senator's ability to handle the economic crisis.The fresh polling is the latest troublesome turn for McCain, the Arizona senator who is trying to regain control of the campaign conversation amid increasingly difficult circumstances for Republicans. It comes on the eve of a debate between Palin and her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden, and as the financial crisis shapes the presidential race in unpredictable ways.For now and probably for the next month, the race will be entirely about who can best handle an economy in peril.The war in Iraq, national security and foreign policy issues — McCain's strengths — have largely fallen by the wayside as each campaign tries to chart a course to the presidency in extraordinarily choppy economic waters.The new surveys show Obama leading McCain in Florida 51 percent to 43 percent, in Ohio 50 percent to 42 percent and in Pennsylvania 54 percent to 39 percent.Since 1960, no president has been elected without winning two of those three states.The results are notable because they show Obama in a strong position in the pair of states that put Bush in the White House in 2000 and kept him there four years later — Florida and Ohio, with 27 and 20 electoral votes, respectively.Obama has been struggling to break into a comfortable lead in both states; for weeks he had been mostly about even with McCain in Ohio while lagging for months in Florida, even after being the only candidate on the air and spending some $8 million on advertising.Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes, is a different story.Obama is trying to hang onto the state Democrat John Kerry won four years ago, though McCain has mounted a stiff challenge as he seeks to benefit from his rival's trouble with working-class voters who question his liberal voting record and, perhaps, his race.The telephone polls, which were taken before and after last week's McCain-Obama debate, have margins of error ranging from plus or minus 2.8 percentage points to plus or minus 3.4

[flyingdonkey 0]

I wonder how much it pains Dick Morris to say this..."The polls now make it clear that McCain lost the first debate, and has lost ground during the entire gambit of suspending his campaign, going off the trail, going to Washington, and working on the bailout. He was tied, or 1 to 2 percent behind when he made the suspension announcement, and he is now 5 to 6 percent behind. The fallout in the electoral map does not make for a pretty picture. Core Republican states like Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Arizona, and North Carolina are now really toss ups, and even states like South Carolina and Georgia are in play."http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?s=al&am...omo_code=6BE8-1

[flyingdonkey 0]

More bad news for the Mccain Campaign.http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/...1846065,00.html

[vbnautilus 48]

More bad news for the Mccain Campaign.http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/...1846065,00.html

three weeks too early imohowever, expect another "gambit" from mccain pretty soon

[CaneBrain 95]

three weeks too early imo

this is a real danger. Dont want to peak too soon.This is encouraging though if you are an Obama supporter (from the time article linked above):For McCain, the most troubling sign may come not from the details of the poll, which are grim for Republicans, but from the historical context. No Democrat has crossed the 50% threshold in the general election since before Ronald Reagan was elected, let alone do so a month before the election.However, a bad sign for Obama is that I saw a bumper sticker today that said "Obamanos". Awful.

[CaneBrain 95]

There are other states far from locked in, and the Bradley effect isnt considered in any of the polls (by definition). MI,OR and WA in particular are from Obama locks.As I said weeks ago, Obama will be a 52:48 favorite going into the elections, and thats too close for his comfort given the Bradley effect.

It looks like MI is a lock....according to McCain anyway. OR and WA are also locks too. This was not one of your best posts.At this point, McCain needs to win Ohio, FL, NC, VA, and NV just to have a chance. If he wins, it means something crazy happened in the next month.

[vbnautilus 48]

Obama close to his peak in electoral votes. No wonder McCain campaign getting desperate and switching to negative.