Ncaa Football Wk2

[Tactical Bear 3]

I will get my record posted as soon as I do all the math and figure out exactly how much I want to kill myself.To be honest, I am not at all displeased with week one. I got absolutely murdered -- including going 1-3 in on-the-fly unposted plays -- but it really would have been much worse had I not been as disciplined as I was. During baseball season, I've had at least 3 separate 15 unit downswings, and that's risking significantly less than a unit/game. You want to know what is REALLY scary? I am absolutely in love with this week's card. I'll probably have 50x in play between NFL and NCAA football.Huzzah! Congratulations to everybody who faded me. Enjoy your mansions, assholes.Initial leans should be up by Thursday/Friday, and a tentative card submitted by Friday afternoon.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

To be honest, I am not at all displeased with week one. I got absolutely murdered --

That statement confuses me.I lost last night but I killed on the weekend. I friggin hate Tennessee.I don't see a lot in the NFL that looks really tasty right now. SOOOOOOo tempted to go against the Cowboys but I don't bet Dallas games. I hope I'm wrong but I smell an upset in that game.Dallas has OL problems... got a newbie starting at LG.... secondary is suspect as well.If Barber can pound out 100+.. they will control the game.... other wise... I dunno.

[Tactical Bear 3]

That statement confuses me.

I was way more disciplined than I've been in the past. I kept myself in check.Strongest initial leans for the weekend:New Mexico, Duke, UL Monroe, Cincy, Nevada, La Tech, Houston

[powerpoker 0]

I will get my record posted as soon as I do all the math and figure out exactly how much I want to kill myself.To be honest, I am not at all displeased with week one. I got absolutely murdered -- including going 1-3 in on-the-fly unposted plays -- but it really would have been much worse had I not been as disciplined as I was. During baseball season, I've had at least 3 separate 15 unit downswings, and that's risking significantly less than a unit/game. You want to know what is REALLY scary? I am absolutely in love with this week's card. I'll probably have 50x in play between NFL and NCAA football.Huzzah! Congratulations to everybody who faded me. Enjoy your mansions, assholes.Initial leans should be up by Thursday/Friday, and a tentative card submitted by Friday afternoon.

I agree...i love this week's card as well.Better luck this week.I have a full slate of games for saturday and sunday that i like and i will most likely put those up on friday night/sat morning before game time...still got some things to review before i make them final. I will however be playin thursday's game with SC going on the road against Vandy.SC -10 vs Vandy- I was skeptical about this game when the line first came out and then I saw that they announced Smelley as the starting qb for this week which should only help SC. Last week Vandy ran the ball all over Miami Oh. for 269 yards and 166 of that from thier qb Nickson due to getting to the outside and simply being faster than the redhawks. I dont see a repeat performace of that against a SC defense that looked excellent last week pitching a shutout over NCST and only allowing a total of 138 yards and 10 first downs. If SC can shut down Nickson and the rest of the running game early i dont expect Vandy to be able to score enough pts to hang inside the number. Nickson threw for only 91 yards last week and if they have to rely on him they could be in trouble. Last week in the win over Miami Oh. vandy's defense let up 340 yards of offense yet only allowed 17 pts due to 4 miami to's. I expect some pts off turnovers here or at least to set up some short feilds for the SC offense to work with. The 4 to's that SC had last week all came at the hands of beecher who wont be playing this week. By the end of the third and into the fourth quarter i expect the vandy defense to struggle due to being on the field a lot and simply wear down much like NCST did last week.SC -9.5 -120 (buy the half pt)Tomorrow i will have a write up of Friday's game and maybe a few for saturdays card as well...good luck.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

I was way more disciplined than I've been in the past. I kept myself in check.Strongest initial leans for the weekend:New Mexico, Duke, UL Monroe, Cincy, Nevada, La Tech, Houston

I have to think this was a joke.If it was.. ya got me... cuz I looked up all those and ummm... if I were playing all these... I would be on exactly the opposite side.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I have to think this was a joke.If it was.. ya got me... cuz I looked up all those and ummm... if I were playing all these... I would be on exactly the opposite side.

Really? You'd be playing all incredibly public favorites? I AM SO SHOCKED! Of course you would, Hollywood. My approach to the sports-wagering market pretty much involves consistently fading people who use "cuz" and "ummm" and "ya" and 3 ellipses (as well as a 2/3 ellipsis) in a single "sentence." Give me your brilliant analysis. Tell me why the books are giving money away on A&M vs. New Mexico, or Cincy at Oklahoma?

[CaneBrain 95]

What is the line on Miami at Florida? If the books give the Gators too much credit (or Miami too little) I am jumping on the Canes to cover....

[Tactical Bear 3]

What is the line on Miami at Florida? If the books give the Gators too much credit (or Miami too little) I am jumping on the Canes to cover....

Last I saw it was 'Canes +21. One of the more split-action games on the board this week.

[CaneBrain 95]

Last I saw it was 'Canes +21. One of the more split-action games on the board this week.

Thats a joke. As soon as the Canes recruited a couple of decent QBs they went from talented team with no passing game to legit spoiler who should be feared going forward. (though I dont think they will be legit contenders for a BCS bowl until next season) The bookies will come around on Miami soon enough.I am going to put $400 (4 units) on the Canes to cover. Prediction : UF 31 UM 21

[Tactical Bear 3]

Thats a joke. As soon as the Canes recruited a couple of decent QBs they went from talented team with no passing game to legit spoiler who should be feared going forward. (though I dont think they will be legit contenders for a BCS bowl until next season) The bookies will come around on Miami soon enough.I am going to put $400 (4 units) on the Canes to cover. Prediction : UF 31 UM 21

With all the other great games on the board, I won't be touching that ****fest. Neither outcome -- FL 52 UM 14 or FL 38 UM 20 -- would really surprise me.

[CaneBrain 95]

With all the other great games on the board, I won't be touching that ****fest. Neither outcome -- FL 52 UM 14 or FL 38 UM 20 -- would really surprise me.

I know it was week one against a cupcake.....but I just get the feeling Miami is going to turn some heads this year. The overall talent level at the program is still very high. I am usually right on about them. We shall see.I dont blame you for not touching it though. Especially so early in the season. Dont be surprised if Miami keeps it ultra close. Much closer than 18 anyway.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

Really? You'd be playing all incredibly public favorites? I AM SO SHOCKED! Of course you would, Hollywood. My approach to the sports-wagering market pretty much involves consistently fading people who use "cuz" and "ummm" and "ya" and 3 ellipses (as well as a 2/3 ellipsis) in a single "sentence." Give me your brilliant analysis. Tell me why the books are giving money away on A&M vs. New Mexico, or Cincy at Oklahoma?

Wowyou've got anger issues dude.Seriously... lighten up Francis.I only said that IF I was playing those games...I would be going the other way.How did you do last week?

[Tactical Bear 3]

How did you do last week?

Something like 1-4, -13x. Draw some meaningful conclusions from that, please. I don't even know why I bother with people unwilling to listen to reason. If you want to play ultra-public favorites, I should be happy. It's the tendency of casual gamblers to only play good teams against bad teams that allows me to show a longterm profit in this game, so trying to talk you out of it isn't just masochistic, it's -EV. Contrarianism wouldn't work if there weren't a "public" to fade. Best of luck this week, Holly. I barely even wish you significant physical pain.Wang

[HollywoodAFD 0]

Something like 1-4, -13x. Draw some meaningful conclusions from that, please. I don't even know why I bother with people unwilling to listen to reason. If you want to play ultra-public favorites, I should be happy. It's the tendency of casual gamblers to only play good teams against bad teams that allows me to show a longterm profit in this game, so trying to talk you out of it isn't just masochistic, it's -EV. Contrarianism wouldn't work if there weren't a "public" to fade. Best of luck this week, Holly. I barely even wish you significant physical pain.Wang

Wow... once again. Count to 10 bro... just making conversation.If you remember... all I said was exactly what you said to another poster.That IF I were going to play those that you listed..I would likely be on the other side.No need to hate. I didn't do that well last week either. 5-3 +5xAny action tonight?

[Tactical Bear 3]

Any action tonight?

All football games are a pass. I'd love to bet against the Giants, but not with the Skins. I want nothing to do with the NCAA games going on tonight. I'll have a super-full card come Saturday/Sunday, so I feel no need to gamble for action.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

All football games are a pass. I'd love to bet against the Giants, but not with the Skins. I want nothing to do with the NCAA games going on tonight. I'll have a super-full card come Saturday/Sunday, so I feel no need to gamble for action.

Same here... I hope the Giants get slaughtered though. Think I'll grill and sit on the couch with no action.

[DinkDonk 1]

Same here... I hope the Giants get slaughtered though. Think I'll grill and sit on the couch with no action.

I think if the Giants win convincingly in the first game or two of the season, they could get to a point where they are incredibly overvalued, so I'm rooting for a Giants rout.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I think if the Giants win convincingly in the first game or two of the season, they could get to a point where they are incredibly overvalued, so I'm rooting for a Giants rout.

This is definitely the proper choice. I had the 'Skins in a few contests selections (pick every NFL game), so the optimal outcome, obviously, was 'Skins cover, but a Giants blowout win would've been fine, too. Unfortunately, the Giants won looking ugly. Blargh. I am trying to put together an NCAAF card, and am struggling mightily. I have at least 15 games I think I have to play. That's 60x without juice and without bigger plays. After the beating I took week 1, it's very possible if I put my bets in all at once I'd have close to my entire roll in play on the first Saturday in September. I am probably going to have to move some money from my secondary (read: golf and contests) bankroll to avoid having a heart attack. My biggest leans for college football at present are:New Mexico +2.5 at home vs. Texas AMUL Monroe +13 at ArkansasSan Jose St. +26.5 at NebraskaNevada +10 at home vs. Tex. TechDuke +6 at home vs. NorthwesternCincy +21.5 at OklahomaTemple +7 at home vs. UConnOSU and Ohio, under 46If I had to fill out a card right now with my 8 favorite games, that would be it, I think. I'm also looking pretty hard at UCF, Buffalo, Boston College (anti-public favorite, and potentially a huge play if it rounds into form), Wazzu, and a handful of others. I think my late action will depend on how the early games go, but probably not, because I am degenerate.Wang

[powerpoker 0]

This is definitely the proper choice. I had the 'Skins in a few contests selections (pick every NFL game), so the optimal outcome, obviously, was 'Skins cover, but a Giants blowout win would've been fine, too. Unfortunately, the Giants won looking ugly. Blargh. I am trying to put together an NCAAF card, and am struggling mightily. I have at least 15 games I think I have to play. That's 60x without juice and without bigger plays. After the beating I took week 1, it's very possible if I put my bets in all at once I'd have close to my entire roll in play on the first Saturday in September. I am probably going to have to move some money from my secondary (read: golf and contests) bankroll to avoid having a heart attack. My biggest leans for college football at present are:New Mexico +2.5 at home vs. Texas AM--indifferent but this line is dropping i believe due to AM's bad loss last week.UL Monroe +13 at Arkansas--pass for meSan Jose St. +26.5 at Nebraska--ugh..i like another nebraska route hereNevada +10 at home vs. Tex. Tech-- i dont mind the play...should be high scoring as the "pistol" offense should put up pts.Duke +6 at home vs. Northwestern---this is a play for me toCincy +21.5 at Oklahoma--i like it...but im passing this gameTemple +7 at home vs. UConn--play for me as wellOSU and Ohio, under 46-- i like itIf I had to fill out a card right now with my 8 favorite games, that would be it, I think. I'm also looking pretty hard at UCF, Buffalo, Boston College (anti-public favorite, and potentially a huge play if it rounds into form), Wazzu, and a handful of others. I think my late action will depend on how the early games go, but probably not, because I am degenerate.Wang

good luck...i also like buff and boston college..washington i would like better if the number hits 10 or 10+ (there still a young one man offense and byu can score)

[Tactical Bear 3]

I think it is hilarious that A&M is getting less than 3 against a WAC team. New Mexico DID win its first bowl game in 40 some-odd years last season, though. Is Dennis Franchione still coaching in New Mexico? I think Rebecca Lobo should be their mascot. I just love that line. 2.5 is such a mean number for the books to put out there. "Go ahead guys. Loaaaad up on the Aggies. We'll give you the extra half-point just so none of you miss it."I like this bet way too much, so there's no way it cashes, but I'm pretty excited about it nonetheless. Duke catching less than a TD is pretty sweet, too. That Duke team is actually not as terrible a football team as most are accustomed to seeing. I forgot to mention CMU @ Georgia. It was probably a very, very bad thing for my bankroll that Georgia Southern scored 21 on Georgia last week. 18 first downs? Really? I'd be surprised if GayFever manages half that number.

[powerpoker 0]

I think it is hilarious that A&M is getting less than 3 against a WAC team. New Mexico DID win its first bowl game in 40 some-odd years last season, though. Is Dennis Franchione still coaching in New Mexico? I think Rebecca Lobo should be their mascot. I just love that line. 2.5 is such a mean number for the books to put out there. "Go ahead guys. Loaaaad up on the Aggies. We'll give you the extra half-point just so none of you miss it."I like this bet way too much, so there's no way it cashes, but I'm pretty excited about it nonetheless. Duke catching less than a TD is pretty sweet, too. That Duke team is actually not as terrible a football team as most are accustomed to seeing. I forgot to mention CMU @ Georgia. It was probably a very, very bad thing for my bankroll that Georgia Southern scored 21 on Georgia last week. 18 first downs? Really? I'd be surprised if GayFever manages half that number.

The line here dropped in the NM game from 3 to 2.5...Neither team looked good last week at all. Rebecca Lobo line...awesomeI completely agree with duke being better this year...that line went from 6 to 6.5 here...hoping it goes to 7 by the weekend...so i can buy it to 7.5. CMU does look yummy but they seem to never show up for these games on the road against BCS squads...they focus soley on winning the MAC each year. But if i did bet the game i couldnt pass up the points either.

[powerpoker 0]

Week 2 0-1YTD 10-7Lets see if we can get back to .500 for the week in the navy/ball st. game.Navy/ball st. (-8) O/U 59These two teams are offensive powerhouses, one by air the other on the ground. Neither team has a good defense which should make for another exciting high scoring friday night game like last weeks Rice/SMU game. Ball st. is returning 11 offensive starters this year and its between them and CMU on which offense is the best in the MAC. They have a great QB WR combo with nate davis and dante love. Davis had 30 td's last year and with all these starters back there should be no reason he cant put up similar if not better numbers than last year. On the defensive side of the ball...well...yea there not that good. They remind me of CMU where they can score but you have to hold your breath when there on D. They averaged giving up 5.0 a carry last year and against Navy they could be in trouble. Navy of course is the power running squad that always seems to lead the nation in running every year. Last week they put up a ridiculous 558 rushing yards against townson. I dont think they will put up that much but i think they will run for at least 300 on the ball st. D. The only thing that is a negative about navy's offense is the o-line they are young but since they arent playing against a great D-line i dont think it should be a problem. There Defense last year was bad to say the least giving up 36 ppg but they were a young D. This year should be better, but not here against this explosive offense. Both teams can reach 30 in this game and i like to go over the total of 59.Navy/Ball st. over 59

[powerpoker 0]

Eastern Michigan +21.5 vs. MSU- Michigan state comes home after a loss at Cal and EMU comes off a shutout of D1-AA indiana st. EMU is much improved squad this year and should be able to hang inside the number against MSU. EMU's offensive returns 4 of 5 lineman which only let up 17 sacks last year. Also last year they were running a version on of the spread offense and this will be thier second year. Spread offense's always give Big10 teams trouble and we saw that last week trying to stop the cal offense. Cal was able to put up over 200 yds on the ground last week and EMU should be able to run the ball somewhat effectively as well. The more they run the ball, the more the clock runs which only helps us since we have to be beat by more than 3 td's. Mich st. should be able to move the ball against EMU's smaller defense although they had trouble running the ball last week. EMU played really well down the stretch last year and it hopefully carries over into this year. EMU +21.5SJSU vs. Nebraska (-26)- SJSU is a mess of a football team right now. They came into this season with a new QB, and right off the bat they needed thier 3rd string QB to throw a TD with 8 seconds left at home to beat UC Davis, a 1-AA school, 13-10. QB troubles already for SJS is not something you want when you have to travel on the road to face Nebraska who looked impressive in thier win against western mich last week. Nebraka's QB Ganz looked very good last week throwing for 345 yds, 4 td's and 2 ints. SJSU gave up 193 yds passing last week at home. Nebraska did have a rather bad showing in the third quarter last week giving up 194 yrds of offense and 15 first downs, WMU only had 19 first downs and 350 yards of O for the enitre game. If nebraska can stay focused for all 4 quarters they could win this game by 5 td's +. Another blowout for nebraska here there just to big, to fast and to talented for SJSU. NEB -26Oregon St. vs PSU (-16.5)- I got this game in before it was annoucned that 2 starters on the D-line for PSU are going to be suspended for this game. Even with these two starters out of the game they should be able to stop the running attack of the beavers. When OSU was forced to pass last week agaisnt stanford they had multiple turnovers, and i expect the same this week. Having to travel cross country to into a hostile environment after coming off a home conference loss will not be easy. On the other side of the ball, OSU was smacked around for over 200 rushing yards which doesnt look good coming to play PSU where they are undersized against a massive O-line. PSU rushed for 334 yds against 1-AA costal carolina. I think turnovers and in the trench play will determine the result here. All signs point to PSU. If this line crossed the 17 pt. mark it would lose a lot of value. PSU -16.5AFA/Wyoming- Air Force comes into this game with 8 new starters on offense and 6 new starters on defense. Last week wyoming won a close game at home 21-20 against ohio. AFA strength is running the ball and wyoming played great against the run last week only allowing 38 yards rushing. They did let up a special teams TD right after they scored a TD otherwise the game wouldnt have been as close. I doubt with such a young defensive they should get much pressure on the wyoming qb who is being protected by a veteran front line. The qb for wyoming has to limit his mistakes this week if they want to win. Either way you look at, Wyoming at home should come back and put together a solid effort on both off and def against a young and inexperienced AF team. Generally speaking if wyoming wins the game you should at least get a push out of it. WYOMING -3CAL -13/WSU- If you read my synopsis last week about WSU the same should hold true this week. They will again have a hard time scoring in this game. Cal is coming off a shootout win with Mich St. where they held the MSU rushing game to just 81 yds on 31 carries. The only weapon WSU has is a running game. If they fall behind early it will be tough for them to come back with a first year quarterback and coach who still look to get on the same page. WSU's defense wore out in the second half last week and i expect the same this week with cal punishing them in the run game. Cal ran for over 200 yds last week against a better defense than WSU has and WSU let up 174 themselves. 13 is a lot giving up on the road i just see 1 team being able to score while the other is still trying to figure out how to move the ball effectively. Cal -13Toledo/ARZ -22.5- There is nothing i could say negative about ARZ last week with a 70-0 shutout over idaho to open the season. The offensive scoring was great but the real stats i found that were amazing were the defensive ones. Arz only gave up 112 yds total in the game and had 5 take-a-ways. Everyone figured that arz's offense would pick up tremendously this year with thier qb all thier top recievers rb and 5 offensive lineman back. They again should have no trouble scoring pts against a weak toledo defense even with 9 starters back. Toledo usually can put points on the board but they are a much better home team than road team and this is their first game so im not sure what to expect out of thier offense. Hopefully arz will get a somewhat repeat perfomance out of the defense and create some TO's and create pts and short fields for themselves. ARZ -22.5 I have more games on tap for saturday and will do those writeups tomorrow night, while waiting for some fav's to be bet up to give me a better price on the dogs.

[rocketpoker828 0]

Toledo/ARZ -22.5- There is nothing i could say negative about ARZ last week with a 70-0 shutout over idaho to open the season. The offensive scoring was great but the real stats i found that were amazing were the defensive ones. Arz only gave up 112 yds total in the game and had 5 take-a-ways. Everyone figured that arz's offense would pick up tremendously this year with thier qb all thier top recievers rb and 5 offensive lineman back. They again should have no trouble scoring pts against a weak toledo defense even with 9 starters back. Toledo usually can put points on the board but they are a much better home team than road team and this is their first game so im not sure what to expect out of thier offense. Hopefully arz will get a somewhat repeat perfomance out of the defense and create some TO's and create pts and short fields for themselves. ARZ -22.5

Toledo's offense is horribly inconsistent, and their defense is nothing to write home about. I like taking Arizona even as such a big favorite.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Ball St. Navy Under 62 +102 (2)I am bored.