Bubble Play

[aggie3 0]

Bodog No-Limit Hold'em Tourney $3K Guaranteed (rebuy) Big Blind is t1500 (7 handed) Hero (t20518)BB (t62180)UTG (t47220)UTG+1 (t25808)MP (t39262)MP1 (t25146)Button (t41416)Preflop: Hero is SB with 8s As 4 fold, Button raises to t4300, Hero??The button just moved to our table 2 rounds ago so we've got no read. We are down to 21 with 18 getting the money. There are two really short stacks of 5000-6000 at another table. chip average is about 27000. My question: is this a clear fold because of the shortstacks or do we shove to accumulate chips? And if this is a fold, what are our requirements to move in?

[ABigMotivation 0]

I think it'd be too nitty to fold here. You already have 750 committed and he was raising from the button... Im not saying you should shove but i think you can afford a call and still last long enough to make money with the two short stacks still around. I hate these situations but A8 plus is my requirement to call or move in if im desperate.

[HighwayStar 8]

If you're gonna do anything, go all in.Flat calling is baaaaad.I probably shove here unless something leads me to believe he's opening incredibly tight. Perfect resteal with fold equity and a half decent hand (even though you are really turning into 72o with the shove)

[aggie3 0]

I think it'd be too nitty to fold here. You already have 750 committed and he was raising from the button... Im not saying you should shove but i think you can afford a call and still last long enough to make money with the two short stacks still around. I hate these situations but A8 plus is my requirement to call or move in if im desperate.

So say we just call here how do we play the flop? we're oop and minus a huge flop i'm not sure how we play even if we flop an ace. Personally I think we have to shove/fold, no?

[Tehtoe 3]

So say we just call here how do we play the flop? we're oop and minus a huge flop i'm not sure how we play even if we flop an ace. Personally I think we have to shove/fold, no?

We don't just call here.

[HighwayStar 8]

I'm bored so I'll do the maths for youLet's give him a respectable opening range. On the bubble this is probably higher than usual, so let's say 25%66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+When you shove you're he has to call 16218 to win about 27000 (with antes)So he's getting 27:16 ish or 1.69: 1 (no caculator)Given those odds I'd say he's calling with about the top 5% of hands 88+,AJs+,KQs,AKoSo 80% of the time he folds.20% of the time he calls and you are about 33:67 dog against his range (approx) equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 67.896% 66.91% 00.99% 256626268 3793060.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }Hand 1: 32.104% 31.12% 00.99% 119343708 3793060.00 { A8s }So80% of the time you end up with 27k= + 7k6.7% of the time you end up doubling to 42kish = + 22k13.3% of the time you end up bust = - 20k0.8*7 + 0.067*22 + .133 *-20k = +4.4k approxSo the EV of this shove is + 4400Which definitely merits doing itI could have a go at work out the EV of flat calling here, but I'm guessing it's probably about - the same amount since you're C/Fing most flops.I'd guess he's probably opening with more and calling with more which probably doesn't have much effect on the overall EV

[copernicus 0]

Clear push, youve got his range crushed. On value I would push back with 66+, A9+,KQ. If I had any read at all that hes attempted to steal this is a decent stack to resteal all in.

[copernicus 0]

If you're gonna do anything, go all in.Flat calling is baaaaad.I probably shove here unless something leads me to believe he's opening incredibly tight. Perfect resteal with fold equity and a half decent hand (even though you are really turning into 72o with the shove)

I dont think youre turning this hand into a bluff with a shove. We are +EV on hand strength even against the range he will call with.

[copernicus 0]

I'm bored so I'll do the maths for youLet's give him a respectable opening range. On the bubble this is probably higher than usual, so let's say 25%66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+When you shove you're he has to call 16218 to win about 27000 (with antes)So he's getting 27:16 ish or 1.69: 1 (no caculator)Given those odds I'd say he's calling with about the top 5% of hands 88+,AJs+,KQs,AKoSo 80% of the time he folds.20% of the time he calls and you are about 33:67 dog against his range (approx)equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 67.896% 66.91% 00.99% 256626268 3793060.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }Hand 1: 32.104% 31.12% 00.99% 119343708 3793060.00 { A8s }So80% of the time you end up with 27k= + 7k6.7% of the time you end up doubling to 42kish = + 22k13.3% of the time you end up bust = - 20k0.8*7 + 0.067*22 + .133 *-20k = +4.4k approxSo the EV of this shove is + 4400Which definitely merits doing itI could have a go at work out the EV of flat calling here, but I'm guessing it's probably about - the same amount since you're C/Fing most flops.I'd guess he's probably opening with more and calling with more which probably doesn't have much effect on the overall EV

I think his raising range is much wider...no less than 35% and could be ATC. His range to call a push has to be wider also, because of the possibility that youre restealing light. Id put his calling range at 55+, A8+, any connected broadways, suited broadway 1 gappers.

[craiger 0]

I don't know...you guys are forgetting he is raising into the BB that is the chip leader...I think I would put his range about the same that a normal button raise is. Push or fold. Without reads, I would just fold.

[MovingIn 0]

I think it'd be too nitty to fold here. You already have 750 committed and he was raising from the button... Im not saying you should shove but i think you can afford a call and still last long enough to make money with the two short stacks still around. I hate these situations but A8 plus is my requirement to call or move in if im desperate.

The survival mindset on the bubble is in itself nitty. With nearly everybody thinking the same thing, this is the time to take advantage and build a stack to challenge for the final table and the top money.If you don't shove this hand PF, call with full intention of shoving post-flop. If you can't shove with A8s or without a read of the new guy, fold.

[TravisG 0]

instashove. if he calls you with JJ so be it you'll hit an ace on the flop... anyways, he'll fold most of the time.

[Mercury69 3]

Fold-o, friend-o.Well, looks like I'm outnumbered...My thinking, without math, is this: Button has me covered and has no real reason to go to war with me without a tighter range than most of you are giving him. If I fold, I lose my blind but I begin the next hand with optimal position to recoup those chips and more. If I call and his range is tighter than anticipated and has me either dominated or in a race, I could be eating felt. Even if he has ATC, it's still a total crapshoot.I still fold.Hands that are beating my ass into the ground: A9+ (20 hands), any PP (78 hands) Hands I'm racing against: any two Broadway (50+ hands)Almost 150 hands are beating me and if you subtract hands he won't be shoving with, you're really only beating around 50% of his range.I realise my "analysis" is lacking hard data, but you don't have hard data here, only estimates.If you value your tourney life and don't have a problem losing your SB, I really think the optimal move here is folding and using your position on the next few hands to work some magic.

[HighwayStar 8]

Shove >>Fold >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Flat CallIf you think he's opening absolutely anything, shove is hugely profitable. I'm sceptical that he is opening that huge a range given how often he gets reshipped by your stack size. I guess given it's the bubble it's wider than usual.

I think his raising range is much wider...no less than 35% and could be ATC. His range to call a push has to be wider also, because of the possibility that youre restealing light. Id put his calling range at 55+, A8+, any connected broadways, suited broadway 1 gappers.

You call here the shove with QT suited? QJo?I know my ranges were a bit off, just fancied doing the calculation.I'm guessing if youw iden the opening range, and widen the calling range, the overall EV of the shove doesn't change a huge amount. Probably slightly more in favour of the shove?

[copernicus 0]

Shove >>Fold >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Flat CallIf you think he's opening absolutely anything, shove is hugely profitable. I'm sceptical that he is opening that huge a range given how often he gets reshipped by your stack size. I guess given it's the bubble it's wider than usual.You call here the shove with QT suited? QJo?I know my ranges were a bit off, just fancied doing the calculation.I'm guessing if youw iden the opening range, and widen the calling range, the overall EV of the shove doesn't change a huge amount. Probably slightly more in favour of the shove?

For some reason I misremembered heros hand thinking he had AJs not A8s. That changes things a lot, and while I still probably shove back, that could be wrong at this level...not to preserve my tourney life, but because there are a lot more hands that dominate me. (At high buy-ins I still think its a clear shove). Calling is out of the question, so its shove or fold.

[Eight_Tabler 0]

Wow, I think this is a really close one... The best mtt players are the ones who are not afraid to bubble and play for the win. That said, most players are afraid of bubbling, and will avoid bigger stacks without good cards. With that line of reasoning, I think the key to this hand is the BB's stack. He has more chips than the button, so the button's raise in this spot carries more strength than usual in my mind. Without any real reads on the button, that makes this hand a fold imo... I think I shove AJ+ (maybe A10+), and most pairs, but I don't know, that range might be too nitty. I think if you do shove here you are getting called a good % of the time since the button will be getting a pretty good price, and he might just put you some sort of semi-weak resteal.Now, if the button was raising a lot and trying to run over the bubble, then I like shoving for sure. I also like shoving if the button had more chips, and the BB had less chips.No matter what I hate calling.

[rbakken2504 0]

Shoving is by far the best play here....as one of the posts stated earlier with a nitty range from the button....you have a decent reshove stack, and may even get called by KQ, QJ or something of that likes....no reason to play for bottom of the pay structure, right here with no read on the button i still shove 90% of time, fold 10% and never call....like so many have said, calling here is absolutely horrendous

[GeneralGeeWhiz 0]

Turbo shove fist pump high five.