Math Question

[antistuff 0]

so i have this hand

Full Tilt PokerPot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring gameBlinds: $0.50/$19 playersConverterStack sizes:UTG: $96.75UTG+1: $93.50MP1: $38.80Hero: $155.30MP3: $40.50CO: $80.45Button: $46.60SB: $72.10BB: $12Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with 3 A K T UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $4.5, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.Flop: T 4 7 ($19.5, 4 players)UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $12, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $55.5

how do i calculate this?he calls a certain percent of the time and he folds a certain percent of the time.the question is will he fold enough to make my shove profitable given that when he calls my equity is probably around 35%? lets pretend we play this game ten times and he folds half the time. so five times i win $32. five other times i put in $29 more (thats all he can call) to win 35% of a will be a $92 pot. <- this is where im stucki guess i want to know how to write an equation so that likee is my equity against the range he calls with f is how often he foldsi think i grasp this intuitively but i don't actually know how to do the numbers.

[uncooper 1]

e is my equity against the range he calls with f is how often he folds

I think:p is the size of the pot before the shover is the amount you need to risk shovingBasically you want to break the possible outcomes into percentages and then calculate the value of those outcomes:- he folds- he calls, you win- he calls, you lose(f * p) is what you win from him folding(1 - f) * e * (p + 2r) = is what you expect to win from him calling, you winr is what you lose from him calling, you loseso the overall expected value of the shove is:(f * p) + [(1 - f) * e * (p + 2r)] - r = EVAnd now, bluffdan or frez or actuary will come in here and find my mistakes

[Killrus 0]

i dunno, I bet you lose that particular hand more often than not.

[I_fold08 1]

math is idiotic

[antistuff 0]

math is idiotic

and your favorite game is stud8?thats irony!!

[copernicus 0]

I think:p is the size of the pot before the shover is the amount you need to risk shovingBasically you want to break the possible outcomes into percentages and then calculate the value of those outcomes:- he folds- he calls, you win- he calls, you lose(f * p) is what you win from him folding(1 - f) * e * (p + 2r) = is what you expect to win from him calling, you winr is what you lose from him calling, you loseso the overall expected value of the shove is:(f * p) + [(1 - f) * e * (p + 2r)] - r = EVAnd now, bluffdan or frez or actuary will come in here and find my mistakes

In the bolded it should be (p+r), you collect p+2r when you win but your profit from the play is only p+r

[uncooper 1]

In the bolded it should be (p+r), you collect p+2r when you win but your profit from the play is only p+r

This makes sense.