uncooper 1 Posted October 27, 2009 Share Posted October 27, 2009 Yea, I was not picky at all. If it had more than 2/3rds public on one side, I took the anti-public side. I agree with you in that one needs to bet more units on their stronger plays. However, I guess it goes to show you that Wang may have been on to something. I believe I bet about 400 games (like I said I posted my record somewhere in this thread) and was only down 7 units. I'm not lying to you. I kept records on it. I believe that Wang's theory may be on to something, but one needs to refine it. Screen down the number of games, and bet more units on your stronger plays. I'm just not smart enough to do it.Just because a game has 66% action on one side does not mean the books are taking a position. I think you want to look at % wagered but also line movement, and compare advanced statistics to popular ones to identify bias in public perception. Also look at overall public money wagered.We also don't know what sample size is required to evaluate winrate. Wang posted about this earlier. I suspect that it's at least 1000 bets. If you were betting 1x on every team that had less than 33% action, you probably ran pretty good to basically break even. Link to post Share on other sites
Canary3 1 Posted October 27, 2009 Share Posted October 27, 2009 What a terrible year to bet contrarian in the NFL Link to post Share on other sites
Banner17 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Just because a game has 66% action on one side does not mean the books are taking a position. I think you want to look at % wagered but also line movement, and compare advanced statistics to popular ones to identify bias in public perception. Also look at overall public money wagered.We also don't know what sample size is required to evaluate winrate. Wang posted about this earlier. I suspect that it's at least 1000 bets. If you were betting 1x on every team that had less than 33% action, you probably ran pretty good to basically break even.Uncooper, thank you very much. This breaks Wang's theory down very well. The problem I had was indentifying line movement. It requires you to eyeball the lines from 11pm EST the night before up to gametime. I just can't be by the computer that much. I'm not wagering enough to justify it. As for the advanced statisitics, the only one I looked at was a pitchers ERA vs FIP. I'm not sure what else to look for. I would suspect there would be stuff for hitter like batting average and runs scored vs OPS % and %age of runs scored in scoring opportunities or something like that. I dunno. As for hoops, football and hockey, I have no idea what kind of stats you're looking at there to distinguish descrepencies between public perception and reality.If you have answers for these, I'm all ears...... Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Uncooper, thank you very much. This breaks Wang's theory down very well. The problem I had was indentifying line movement. It requires you to eyeball the lines from 11pm EST the night before up to gametime. I just can't be by the computer that much. I'm not wagering enough to justify it. As for the advanced statisitics, the only one I looked at was a pitchers ERA vs FIP. I'm not sure what else to look for. I would suspect there would be stuff for hitter like batting average and runs scored vs OPS % and %age of runs scored in scoring opportunities or something like that. I dunno. As for hoops, football and hockey, I have no idea what kind of stats you're looking at there to distinguish descrepencies between public perception and reality.If you have answers for these, I'm all ears......Well, sir.. you're in luck.these sites track line movementhttp://contests.covers.com/index.aspx?t=0http://www.vegasinsider.com/ Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Uncooper, thank you very much. This breaks Wang's theory down very well. The problem I had was indentifying line movement. It requires you to eyeball the lines from 11pm EST the night before up to gametime. I just can't be by the computer that much. I'm not wagering enough to justify it. As for the advanced statisitics, the only one I looked at was a pitchers ERA vs FIP. I'm not sure what else to look for. I would suspect there would be stuff for hitter like batting average and runs scored vs OPS % and %age of runs scored in scoring opportunities or something like that. I dunno. As for hoops, football and hockey, I have no idea what kind of stats you're looking at there to distinguish descrepencies between public perception and reality.If you have answers for these, I'm all ears......For baseball you can also check the BP-adjusted standings. The public often thinks that good teams are better than they really are, or thinks that bad teams are worse than they really are. This is especially true if they have run far from expectation in one-run games or if a pitcher's BABIP is very far off from .290 (league average). You don't want to get carried away with this, since our mantra is "It's built into the line," but I think it can help identify value. Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Well, sir.. you're in luck.these sites track line movementhttp://contests.covers.com/index.aspx?t=0http://www.vegasinsider.com/ but they only show the percentage of people that are betting the line, not the total $ wagered... also, The chargers line opened at -17 and is at -16.5 now with 77% of the action on them. Bet Raiders now or wait till its closer to game day? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 but they only show the percentage of people that are betting the line, not the total $ wagered... also, The chargers line opened at -17 and is at -16.5 now with 77% of the action on them. Bet Raiders now or wait till its closer to game day?A line moving the wrong way is always a good sign. I doubt it's going to move much further that way though. Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 A line moving the wrong way is always a good sign. I doubt it's going to move much further that way though.want to point outMiami open at -7. 92% action on them. current line at -6.5 Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted October 31, 2009 Share Posted October 31, 2009 A line moving the wrong way is always a good sign. I doubt it's going to move much further that way though.on a 6 unit system, how many do you think is reasonable for the raiders to cover? Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted November 2, 2009 Share Posted November 2, 2009 on a 6 unit system, how many do you think is reasonable for the raiders to cover?ended up putting four units on raiders covering and two on them staying under 41.5... been a good week betting contrarian. +12 units Link to post Share on other sites
troyomac 0 Posted November 3, 2009 Share Posted November 3, 2009 I have a sports betting question not related to contrianism, but I figured this would be the best place to ask...I've noticed lately that lines seem to be very different at halftime, than they are before the game starts, like today the Saints were -11.5 before the game started, but the 2nd half line was -3.5 (you would think it would be half or 5.5, no?). This was with them getting the ball to start the 2nd half too. Similarialy, I noticed the LA Lakers were -11 vs the Mavericks prior to the game starting. At half, the Mavs were up by 7, and the 2nd half line was Lakers -7.Are these not spots when we should be hammering bets down on the Saints and Mavs? Why do the lines move in weird ways like that? Link to post Share on other sites
MaxStPolish 4 Posted November 4, 2009 Share Posted November 4, 2009 I have a sports betting question not related to contrianism, but I figured this would be the best place to ask...I've noticed lately that lines seem to be very different at halftime, than they are before the game starts, like today the Saints were -11.5 before the game started, but the 2nd half line was -3.5 (you would think it would be half or 5.5, no?). This was with them getting the ball to start the 2nd half too. Similarialy, I noticed the LA Lakers were -11 vs the Mavericks prior to the game starting. At half, the Mavs were up by 7, and the 2nd half line was Lakers -7.Are these not spots when we should be hammering bets down on the Saints and Mavs? Why do the lines move in weird ways like that?Simply put, i think it's because half the game has been played. Meaning you can now process that half of game into a new line. The falcons looked pretty strong in that first half. And the fact that NO got the pick 6 TD to make it a two score game..and the book feels Atl still feels they are in this game, so for the final score to be more than 17 points difference is already a lot.Very dumbed down response, but someone more eloquent could explain.And I can't believe I'm just seeing this post for the first time. Hot. Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted November 10, 2009 Share Posted November 10, 2009 Thoughts on Adam Meyer anyone? Link to post Share on other sites
Canary3 1 Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 great day for contrarians today in the NFL! Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 great day for contrarians today in the NFL!+9x for me. 1 more if the Browns represent tomorrow night. Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 great day for contrarians today in the NFL!yup!I knew you were posting your contrarian picks in the sports betting thread... you sneaky basterd! Link to post Share on other sites
Canary3 1 Posted November 17, 2009 Share Posted November 17, 2009 yup!I knew you were posting your contrarian picks in the sports betting thread... you sneaky basterd!lol I wouldn't call it sneaky. Come on Cleveland.... just one touchdown Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Interesting week upcoming for contrarians in the NFL. It was getting a little boring (though still profitable) to just bet the Rams, Panthers, and Bucs every week. There is a lot of contrarian value in the current matchups/lines, and on a bunch of teams that most of us probably haven't been backing all year. Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 came across this site while looking at porn, no lie!http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-bett...k-spy-insights/havnt really searched around it much, but i see it has trends from "multiple sportsbooks" which is awesome. has a bunch of handicappers, and betting tools... can one of you guys give this site a review for me? any one familiar with pregame.com? Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/12/lu...ms-week-14.html Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted January 8, 2010 Share Posted January 8, 2010 St Peters +2.5Wash St. +2.5E Wash +15All these games saw the favorite get all the action, but the lines dropped.Non-contrarian pick tonight:San Diego -3 Link to post Share on other sites
MaxStPolish 4 Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 So it seems like the whole world is on dallas's nuts on the road getting a FG today, actually less than at a lot of books now (+2.5).I liked Minny from the onset, but this game just seems to reek of contrarian value......and you are getting the home team, with AP, Favre, strong lines, etc. etc. Just seems like amazing value. Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 So it seems like the whole world is on dallas's nuts on the road getting a FG today, actually less than at a lot of books now (+2.5).I liked Minny from the onset, but this game just seems to reek of contrarian value......and you are getting the home team, with AP, Favre, strong lines, etc. etc. Just seems like amazing value.I don't think there's been value on the Vikings all season. They are ridiculously public. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted February 27, 2010 Share Posted February 27, 2010 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/w...-hate-the-twinsAn interesting article on Dave Cameron believing the Twins are undervalued for the coming season. Some decent discussion in the comments section as well. Link to post Share on other sites
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