Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 603
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

So are you all taking Houston at +2 tomorrow against Clevland?

Link to post
Share on other sites
hey wang.. Paul Casey is 45-1.. thoughts?
None. I used to unload on Paul Casey on a semi-regular basis, and he let me down time and time again. He's foreign, so he's probably undervalued. I am unable to think clearly right now, because my Memphis futures are going up in flames in the first round.Are you kidding me with this shit? Down 6 with ten minutes left, and Cal-St. is 7-12 from 3? Fucking FUCK
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wang,I read the first half of the thread just now, and quickly scanned through the rest. I want you to know that I really enjoyed reading it and will become a serious follower of the thread. I plan to incorporate sports betting into my life (probably the dumbest thing I have ever said). About halfway through, I thought you tossed the reigns over to BigDMcGee.I read on another poker site (I'm an okay limit holdem player. I've played my original $100 deposit since 2003 and won maybe 15k or so. Not a record keeper) that Doyle Brunson says "you can close your eyes and play college hoop home dogs all year long, and come out a winner." Any thoughts on this? Contrarian laws apply? I went poking around for sports betting stuff because I plan to take $1,000 next hoop season, play the home dogs, and bonus hunt the online sportsbooks like I used to with online poker pre UIGEA. Does the UIGEA effect the movement of money for sports bettors?Basically, you have a another devoted student. And I'll probably spend most of my time from now until next college hoops season studying and not betting.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Wang,I read the first half of the thread just now, and quickly scanned through the rest. I want you to know that I really enjoyed reading it and will become a serious follower of the thread. I plan to incorporate sports betting into my life (probably the dumbest thing I have ever said). About halfway through, I thought you tossed the reigns over to BigDMcGee.I read on another poker site (I'm an okay limit holdem player. I've played my original $100 deposit since 2003 and won maybe 15k or so. Not a record keeper) that Doyle Brunson says "you can close your eyes and play college hoop home dogs all year long, and come out a winner." Any thoughts on this? Contrarian laws apply? I went poking around for sports betting stuff because I plan to take $1,000 next hoop season, play the home dogs, and bonus hunt the online sportsbooks like I used to with online poker pre UIGEA. Does the UIGEA effect the movement of money for sports bettors?Basically, you have a another devoted student. And I'll probably spend most of my time from now until next college hoops season studying and not betting.
well he didn't really "toss the reigns" over to me, he just stopped posting as much. Betting home dogs is usually a solid contrarian play, because the reason they are dogs is because the public is in love with the away team. But it's more important to see how the public is wagering on a specific game, than to see if they home team is a dog.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Any thoughts about the bonus hunting the online sportsbooks? What percentage of my bankroll should I have an any one event? Things seem like they can get real dicey when on any given night I could have bet like 8 or 9 games.......Once again, very interested in the contrarian approach to sports betting. Seems to make sense. I'm an old catholic school kid, and I once heard the story of the priest who would bet a few times a year. He'd wait until even Grandma Jones loved the Patriots, and then he'd call in the other team. Probably just an old bookie's tale.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Any thoughts about the bonus hunting the online sportsbooks? What percentage of my bankroll should I have an any one event? Things seem like they can get real dicey when on any given night I could have bet like 8 or 9 games.......Once again, very interested in the contrarian approach to sports betting. Seems to make sense. I'm an old catholic school kid, and I once heard the story of the priest who would bet a few times a year. He'd wait until even Grandma Jones loved the Patriots, and then he'd call in the other team. Probably just an old bookie's tale.
Conservative is always better. My spiritual ascendent John Maynard Keynes said: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Fucking right, Maynard, you dick. I basically use a 100x main bankroll, with a 50x roll set aside as "futures and emergency funds." 1x = 1% of my bankroll. Standard plays are 2x, big plays are 3x, very big plays are 4x. Having 16 big plays in a day means I having half of my bankroll in play. That's happened sometimes, when I have to put plays in the night before hand or early in the morning on a busy day. Always fun...The NCAA tournament is a Contrarian's wet dream. I am playing it close to the vest and I'm still going to lose at least 30x.EDIT- Does anybody have half a fucking clue how Stephen F. Austin keeps it inside the number? How does Cornell not get blown out of the fucking gym?
Link to post
Share on other sites
Conservative is always better. My spiritual ascendent John Maynard Keynes said: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Fucking right, Maynard, you dick. I basically use a 100x main bankroll, with a 50x roll set aside as "futures and emergency funds." 1x = 1% of my bankroll. Standard plays are 2x, big plays are 3x, very big plays are 4x. Having 16 big plays in a day means I having half of my bankroll in play. That's happened sometimes, when I have to put plays in the night before hand or early in the morning on a busy day. Always fun...The NCAA tournament is a Contrarian's wet dream. I am playing it close to the vest and I'm still going to lose at least 30x.EDIT- Does anybody have half a fucking clue how Stephen F. Austin keeps it inside the number? How does Cornell not get blown out of the fucking gym?
Haha....too funny about John Maynard Keynes quote. Seems very true. I'm very excited to keep reading. Was there ever a Sports Gambling 101 or did we skip that class and head right for 201? How do you determine you wager size, be it 2x, 3x or 4x? What criteria have to align for me to upgrade a play?
Link to post
Share on other sites
Haha....too funny about John Maynard Keynes quote. Seems very true. I'm very excited to keep reading. Was there ever a Sports Gambling 101 or did we skip that class and head right for 201? How do you determine you wager size, be it 2x, 3x or 4x? What criteria have to align for me to upgrade a play?
You should be flat betting for now, until you get a feel for what separates plays. All plays to win 2x.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wang,I had a shitty day in real life, but I had time to suck down a Guinness and look at the Herald. I saw Arizona +1 to Utah.....I mean Arizona had so much bad press for limping into this tournament and they shouldn't be there, etc....I had to be confused by Utah only being a 1 pt favorite, so naturally I played Arizona. Then we had Cleveland State vs Wake Forest. I was pretty certain everyone and their grandmother was gonna bet Wake, so I bet Cleveland State plus 8 even though Cleveland State beat Syracuse at Cuse earlier the year. Finally, you got Siena only a 3 pt dog to THE Ohio State University. How can OSU only be a 3 pt favorite here???? It's almost as if the book is begging you to bet OSU, so I took Siena. Thank you. My friends were baffled by my picks, but I said Wang is my boy and I subscribe to contrarianism even if I don't fully understand it. Sorry for posting late, but I had a really shitty day in real life. Cost me about double what I made with my starter bankroll on sports. Had to text in bets to my bookie, then I got drunk cuz today sucked. Good looks, Wang.Jack

Link to post
Share on other sites

Wang,So by aligning yourself with the books, you get a +EV bet because you assume the books are gambling in spots where they allow money to come in on one side? You assume that the books can very easily move a line as the money comes in one-sided but choose not to because they know more than the average betting man?Because no matter who I bet on, I still have to win 53% of my picks to break even at a standard 10% juice book. (I understand this is where matchbook becomes vitally important.) So can I really expect that my contrarian outlook is going to return over 53% winners over the long-term?Jack

Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh where oh where did my Wang go? Oh where oh where can he be?Dude, it ain't no thing to me if you're having a tough time. I'm not going to criticize. I'm thirsty for more contrarian sports betting theory, and I am getting none. I need constant information, and the daily disappointment of the No Wang Posts is upsetting. Sad, but on my way home, I think "I wonder if Wang hit me back".......nope. grrr.

Link to post
Share on other sites
What's the word on Pitt -2? Seems public perception of Villanova is really high, while Pitt has squeaked through some games. 55% action on Nova right now.
When the public takes the underdog over the favorite, and the line doesn't move, I pound the favorite, for what it's worth.
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure there is more to it than just fading the public, but I have been tracking exactly that since last Friday. I play anything that the public is 65% or greater on. My record thus far is 16-13-1. However, tomorrow Sunday 3/29/09, there are 13 plays that go against public. Some of them are very public like Boston -11 to OKC and Phoenix Suns -5.5 to Sacramento. I'm assuming fading the public opinion as viewed thru wagerline is akin to a stock screen. It narrows down the world of possibilities, from there you homework a bit, and make some selections. Same days more than others. Thoughts?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, so I just reread the thread. I have totally caught the sports betting bug. I'm kinda excessive with everything I do, so I ordered 3 books on sports betting from amazon. First one to come is Michael Konik Smart Money. Anyone read it? It's a story and not much strategy, but it's wicked good. Konik rolls into Vegas with his swinger girlfriend, and bets hundreds of thousands per weekend for a large sports betting syndicate. All while getting full RFB comps and testing the ceiling mirror out with his girlfriend and the hooker she chose. The other two are Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong and Weighing the Odds by King Pao. Since I first read the thread on 3/20/09, I'm 25-17-1 for a positive 20 units which has grown my bankroll 20% playing a standard 2x unit plays. I may have been doing things wrong since I was looking at wagerline consensus as my source for public plays. Since I have found that it's just a private competition on an online sportsbook, and Vegas Insider is the better place to look. I'll start to use both to get a feel. Someone had posted some confusion about situations when the public perception is drastically different between wagerline and VI. I would say if there is any confusion in your mind, your best option is to do nothing -- there are no called strikes in investing. You can sit at the plate and wait forever for the perfect pitch.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...

I heard that if you bet on any NBA team other than the Lakers to win the championship on Bodog, Bodog will refund you your bet if the Lakers win. So, you bet on Cleveland and Cleveland wins, you win. If Cleveland doesn't win, but the Lakers do, you get your bet back. If neither Cleveland nor the Lakers win, you lose.Thoughts?

Link to post
Share on other sites
I heard that if you bet on any NBA team other than the Lakers to win the championship on Bodog, Bodog will refund you your bet if the Lakers win. So, you bet on Cleveland and Cleveland wins, you win. If Cleveland doesn't win, but the Lakers do, you get your bet back. If neither Cleveland nor the Lakers win, you lose.Thoughts?
Sounds like a freeroll to take every team in the east, at least the top 3 anyway.Portland in the second round might give LA problems but ultimately I think they get through the west pretty easy so as long as they get to the finals, that's easy money.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Announcements


×
×
  • Create New...