HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 2 units on Ohio St. +8.51 unit on Ohio St. MLCommon boys, lets do it.You gonna loseTexas by 17 Link to post Share on other sites
rocketpoker828 0 Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 You gonna loseTexas by 17want to bet? $10, pokerstars or full tilt? obv since you're confident, i'll take OSU+17 Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 want to bet? $10, pokerstars or full tilt? obv since you're confident, i'll take OSU+17NoI have a rule against betting on my alma mater.However... for funsies... I'll go 10 on PS with you heads up. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 NoI have a rule against betting on my alma mater.However... for funsies... I'll go 10 on PS with you heads up.yeah, giving away 8.5 points seems like a blast for me..and.. I'm pretty sure you've bet on Texas earlier this season..speaking of fun, 6-3 halftime is great for us OSU and under 51.5 bettors.. Link to post Share on other sites
rocketpoker828 0 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 ship to onelessdonk (toledo) holly, gg, congrats Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Noticed early on the San Diego Pittsburgh game. 62% of the public is backing San Diego on the spread.It opened at -6.5 for Pittsburgh, and now -6.0.Any thoughts? Or still too early? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Noticed early on the San Diego Pittsburgh game. 62% of the public is backing San Diego on the spread.It opened at -6.5 for Pittsburgh, and now -6.0.Any thoughts? Or still too early?my thoughts are, if the public is backing San Diego at 62 percent, I'm going to pound the fck out of pittsburgh. Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 yeah, giving away 8.5 points seems like a blast for me..and.. I'm pretty sure you've bet on Texas earlier this season..speaking of fun, 6-3 halftime is great for us OSU and under 51.5 bettors..Wow.... just wow!Congrats on your win BigDCongrats on my HORNS WIN ! !One of the best games I've watched in a while.Not so good for my Ohio State buddyship to onelessdonk (toledo) holly, gg, congratsShip it? Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Yeah my thoughts were to pound Pittsburgh too. My thoughts are though, is it still too early to bet on that? Like do you think the public might change their vote? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Yeah my thoughts were to pound Pittsburgh too. My thoughts are though, is it still too early to bet on that? Like do you think the public might change their vote?oh, I'm definitely waiting.. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 One of the best games I've watched in a while.I've never agreed with you moreNot so good for my Ohio State buddyCongrats, Hollywood, you finally posted something that made me laugh. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 I have arrived here, thanks to BigdMcgee and Ottawa Biatch who recruited me..When i get a chance later tonight I will read this thread from the beginning....I am now a follower... Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Any thoughts on the BCS Championship Game yet? I noticed a huge chunk of the public is betting Florida on the spread, although the bookies are moving the line about a point and a half to encourage betting for Oklahoma. So it looks like a game we just don't touch?I was just wondering if you guys wanted to help each other out though and post when you start seeing the reverse line trends. Right now in the NBA, the big one I see today early is the Knicks @ Thunder. Both sports.com and the vegasinsider.com have 95% of the public backing the Knicks on the spread, and 100% of the public backing the Knicks on the ML. The line hasn't moved though from -2 yet across all Vegas and Offshore Lines. I'm jumping on this now, incase I think the Thunder might get favoured in this one. Betting 1 unit on the Thunder +2. The other one I might be touching too is the New Orleans/Lakers game, but still waiting for just a bit more information.Thoughts and comments appreciated! Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Any thoughts on the BCS Championship Game yet? I noticed a huge chunk of the public is betting Florida on the spread, although the bookies are moving the line about a point and a half to encourage betting for Oklahoma. So it looks like a game we just don't touch?I was just wondering if you guys wanted to help each other out though and post when you start seeing the reverse line trends. Right now in the NBA, the big one I see today early is the Knicks @ Thunder. Both sports.com and the vegasinsider.com have 95% of the public backing the Knicks on the spread, and 100% of the public backing the Knicks on the ML. The line hasn't moved though from -2 yet across all Vegas and Offshore Lines. I'm jumping on this now, incase I think the Thunder might get favoured in this one. Betting 1 unit on the Thunder +2. The other one I might be touching too is the New Orleans/Lakers game, but still waiting for just a bit more information.Thoughts and comments appreciated!I'm not playing this game because I want Florida to win more than I think Oklahoma will win.(did that make sense?)I hate OU so much that I could never bet on them. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Any thoughts on the BCS Championship Game yet? I noticed a huge chunk of the public is betting Florida on the spread, although the bookies are moving the line about a point and a half to encourage betting for Oklahoma. So it looks like a game we just don't touch?I don't like it, because at my picks site http://www.wagerline.com/Handicapping/cons...p;select_type=0the picking is extremely even on both sides I'm going to watch the betting, however... there might be late action on the big 12, after how awful it's done against the spread this year. Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Thanks dudes. That's what I thought. Any thoughts on the NBA games tonight? Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Bets tonight.1 Unit on OKC Thunder +2.0 over NY Knicks1 Unit on CHI Bulls -9.0 over SAC Kings1.5 Units on NO Hornets +7.0 over LA Lakers0.5 Units on NO Hornets ML over LA Lakers Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Any thoughts on the BCS Championship Game yet? I noticed a huge chunk of the public is betting Florida on the spread, although the bookies are moving the line about a point and a half to encourage betting for Oklahoma. So it looks like a game we just don't touch?I've seen you post this question before and I think there's a small concept you're missing. Even if the bookies aren't taking a side in a game, it doesn't mean that there is no edge. The bookies know pretty well what the "optimal line" on a game should be and they also know the amount of action on each side. So if they are deviating from that line, there is an edge on the side from which they deviated. So as a contrarian, it's important not only to be in tune with what the final betting splits are, but the progression of those splits, the reaction of the bookies, and the public perceptions of each team. So in this game, since the early action is on Florida and the line is moving to favor betting on Oklahoma, there will be a small edge on Oklahoma based off of the bookies idea of the optimal line. And that idea is what we, as contrarians, put our faith in. And the public perception is unreasonably high on Florida and that is the perception that we aim to bet against.This edge is smaller than a spot where the bookies are taking a clear preference, but often in these big games with heavy action they will take a more variance averse line and simply balance action. But anyway, in this spot, I like Oklahoma. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Bets tonight.1 Unit on OKC Thunder +2.0 over NY Knicks1 Unit on CHI Bulls -9.0 over SAC Kings1.5 Units on NO Hornets +7.0 over LA Lakers0.5 Units on NO Hornets ML over LA LakersI have those same to games also. I also have LAC+12.5 over Dallas ( Dallas is a top 6 bet on team, LAC is a bottom 3). The betting isn't as heavy as I'd hoped on Dallas, but I have a good friend of mine, who's also a sucker, whom I want to keep happy, so I'm giving him action on this game. I still like LAC, but I don't love them or anythingThe other games I like are Houston +3.5 over PhillyCharlotte +9.5 over bostonClippers/Dallas under 183.5 but I haven't got any action on them yet. I'm still small time, and as I'm learning, I'm restricting my bets with other forum members or RL friends, to remove the vig. Once I'm confident in this system ( and have a nicish BR built up) I'm going to start booking my bets with an online book, probably that bet exchange place. Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 I've seen you post this question before and I think there's a small concept you're missing. Even if the bookies aren't taking a side in a game, it doesn't mean that there is no edge. The bookies know pretty well what the "optimal line" on a game should be and they also know the amount of action on each side. So if they are deviating from that line, there is an edge on the side from which they deviated. So as a contrarian, it's important not only to be in tune with what the final betting splits are, but the progression of those splits, the reaction of the bookies, and the public perceptions of each team. So in this game, since the early action is on Florida and the line is moving to favor betting on Oklahoma, there will be a small edge on Oklahoma based off of the bookies idea of the optimal line. And that idea is what we, as contrarians, put our faith in. And the public perception is unreasonably high on Florida and that is the perception that we aim to bet against.This edge is smaller than a spot where the bookies are taking a clear preference, but often in these big games with heavy action they will take a more variance averse line and simply balance action. But anyway, in this spot, I like Oklahoma.Thanks dude, very interesting. Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 I have those same to games also. I also have LAC+12.5 over Dallas ( Dallas is a top 6 bet on team, LAC is a bottom 3). The betting isn't as heavy as I'd hoped on Dallas, but I have a good friend of mine, who's also a sucker, whom I want to keep happy, so I'm giving him action on this game. I still like LAC, but I don't love them or anythingThe other games I like are Houston +3.5 over PhillyCharlotte +9.5 over bostonClippers/Dallas under 183.5 but I haven't got any action on them yet. I'm still small time, and as I'm learning, I'm restricting my bets with other forum members or RL friends, to remove the vig. Once I'm confident in this system ( and have a nicish BR built up) I'm going to start booking my bets with an online book, probably that bet exchange place.I don't know about the Boston game yet. The line started at 8, I think and has now moved to 9.5, so I'm not too strong on it. The Clippers game looks good too though, but I just don't think it's heavy enough yet. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 I don't like it, because at my picks site http://www.wagerline.com/Handicapping/cons...p;select_type=0 Hey, I'm a little confused about this site. Does this site combine info from the "top 20 sportsbooks" that it lists at the top of the page or is the information about the betting coming from just the one site?Edit: I finally broke down and opted to make a deposit to try out this contrarian thing. Can someone post links to good reliable sites that show the betting trends? Is the one above the best there is? I'm sure there are links in occasional posts along these 8 pages, but I'd rather not look through them all if someone just happens to know of a few good ones offhand. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Oh yeah, and looking through the NBA picks you guys made tonight I didn't see anyone betting on Minnesota at +4 against Memphis even though more than 2/3 action seems to be going in on the latter. Am I missing something? Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Just made a silly bet bc I wanted some action on the late games.0.5 unit parlay onLA Kings ML over AnaheimCalgary ML over San JoseNO Hornets ML over LA Lakersodds (10.3) Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Hey, I'm a little confused about this site. Does this site combine info from the "top 20 sportsbooks" that it lists at the top of the page or is the information about the betting coming from just the one site?Edit: I finally broke down and opted to make a deposit to try out this contrarian thing. Can someone post links to good reliable sites that show the betting trends? Is the one above the best there is? I'm sure there are links in occasional posts along these 8 pages, but I'd rather not look through them all if someone just happens to know of a few good ones offhand.Best website IMO is http://www.vegasinsider.com/ Link to post Share on other sites
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