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Im leaving for Vegas first thing Friday morning, give me some damn locks Wang. Tigers > Sox in all 3???
Haha, you're hilarious. Are you really leaving for Vegas Friday Morning? If so, I'll definitely ship you a few weekend golf locks. Too bad you're not going to be there on Thursday Morning; Anthony Kim is a LOCK to outplay Furyk this weekend. Somehow I have like 5x on it. I'm retarded.I bet against the Tigs every single game in the Royals series, and that worked out okay (for them, not me). If the Tigers see Gavin Floyd or Beurhle, just drill them. They both suck so bad, but gamblers love them.Have fun in Vegas, Big Bear. Regards,Derek
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Haha, you're hilarious. Are you really leaving for Vegas Friday Morning? If so, I'll definitely ship you a few weekend golf locks. Too bad you're not going to be there on Thursday Morning; Anthony Kim is a LOCK to outplay Furyk this weekend. Somehow I have like 5x on it. I'm retarded.I bet against the Tigs every single game in the Royals series, and that worked out okay (for them, not me). If the Tigers see Gavin Floyd or Beurhle, just drill them. They both suck so bad, but gamblers love them.Have fun in Vegas, Big Bear. Regards,Derek
Yeah, Amy and I are leaving at 6am fri. morn for about a week. Gordy and his wife are there right now for a bridge tournament. Gonna bet some baseball games heavy for sure, forgot about the Canadian open this weekend. Hopefully can still squeeze in some prop bets on the weekend. We'll have to plan a casino trip downtown for the following weekend. If u stir up any locks, send em my way!!later D
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Yeah, Amy and I are leaving at 6am fri. morn for about a week. Gordy and his wife are there right now for a bridge tournament. Gonna bet some baseball games heavy for sure, forgot about the Canadian open this weekend. Hopefully can still squeeze in some prop bets on the weekend. We'll have to plan a casino trip downtown for the following weekend. If u stir up any locks, send em my way!!later D
You know it, man. I'll give you a call later this week. Give Amy and Gordy my best. And, uh, hope you don't run into your probation officer out there anywhere. What're the odds? I mean, that it happens again....?
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Haha, you're hilarious. Are you really leaving for Vegas Friday Morning? If so, I'll definitely ship you a few weekend golf locks. Too bad you're not going to be there on Thursday Morning; Anthony Kim is a LOCK to outplay Furyk this weekend. Somehow I have like 5x on it. I'm retarded.I bet against the Tigs every single game in the Royals series, and that worked out okay (for them, not me). If the Tigers see Gavin Floyd or Beurhle, just drill them. They both suck so bad, but gamblers love them.Have fun in Vegas, Big Bear. Regards,Derek
As a Sox fan, I agree with this.
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So what happens when you get a good and traditionally overvalued and popular team like the Cubs vs a hot and newly popular team with a great, newly traded for ace pitcher ( Brewers and CC). Do you figure the public sentiment will even out, or do you bet against CC and actually bet on the cubs?

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So what happens when you get a good and traditionally overvalued and popular team like the Cubs vs a hot and newly popular team with a great, newly traded for ace pitcher ( Brewers and CC). Do you figure the public sentiment will even out, or do you bet against CC and actually bet on the cubs?
You pass this game. Gun to my head, I take the Cubbies, but only because the Brewers came by their hype much more recently, and much less deservedly. Don't listen to me, though. Until today, I'd lost 11 of my last 13 baseball bets. Eek.
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So pretty much bet against the jets early and often at the start of this season?
Maybe i guess it depends on the line, there reciver Clowney from v-tech that they picked up middle of the season last year had an outstanding game 1 in the preseason (4 rec, 163 yrds, 2 td's). Most likely will be a 3rd reciever but if the O-line holds up and Coles does what he is capable to do as there number 1 reciver this team could def put up points. Im curious to see what the O/U numbers would be for there games since we all know Farve will be throwing it all over the place, and i like there Rb Thomas Jones, hes solid when he is needed. If they are at home catching a big number i can see some value in them.
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what do you think the line's gonna be? Between a touchdown and 10 I'd think.
If it's that high, I probably won't play it. I think it's going to be Jets by a FG, maybe has high as 4.5. They'll probably just let the Jets get pounded, then give up the hook late.
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I just checked, and the Jets opened at 3 pt. favorites at The Greek. There was no movement after the Favre trade, which is awesome for my purposes.
There might be some after he plays the preseason, if he does well tons of money will pour in on the jets. He starts next preseason game against the redskins so we will see how it goes.
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I just checked, and the Jets opened at 3 pt. favorites at The Greek. There was no movement after the Favre trade, which is awesome for my purposes.
Wouldn't you rather miami get as many points as possible, or is it good, because you know vegas is trying to get people to bet on the jets...Also, when, if ever, do you bet on the money line as opposed to betting on the spread? is there ever more value in the money line? what is the typical money line for a 1, 3, 4, 7 and 10 point spread?
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There might be some after he plays the preseason, if he does well tons of money will pour in on the jets. He starts next preseason game against the redskins so we will see how it goes.
Don't you think a lot of money is pouring in on the Jets already?? And the line still hasn't moved. Hmmm...
Wouldn't you rather miami get as many points as possible, or is it good, because you know vegas is trying to get people to bet on the jets...Also, when, if ever, do you bet on the money line as opposed to betting on the spread? is there ever more value in the money line? what is the typical money line for a 1, 3, 4, 7 and 10 point spread?
It is good, because it means the books are taking a hard line with JoeBlowPublic. Money is pouring in on the Jets, and the books probably like Miami catching a field-goal at home. Miami was already a super-unpopular home dog, meaning there is probably value in taking Miami, especially since they really weren't as bad as their record suggested last year. There is a strong tendency for teams that have terrible records one year to exceed expectations the next. The same concept applies in reverse. This is all subject to lots of change, especially since we're a looong ways away from the start of the regular season. As for your second question:Assuming no juice, I would expect to see the following approximate money lines for the above favorites.1pt: -1052.5pts: -1203pts: -1503.5pts: -180 6.5: -2507.0: -2907.5: -33010.0: -475These could be way off, and of course ever situation is different, but I'd imagine these would be serviceable for your purposes. Notice how costly it is to buy/sell half-points around the big numbers, for obvious reasons.
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Don't you think a lot of money is pouring in on the Jets already?? And the line still hasn't moved. Hmmm...It is good, because it means the books are taking a hard line with JoeBlowPublic. Money is pouring in on the Jets, and the books probably like Miami catching a field-goal at home. Miami was already a super-unpopular home dog, meaning there is probably value in taking Miami, especially since they really weren't as bad as their record suggested last year. There is a strong tendency for teams that have terrible records one year to exceed expectations the next. The same concept applies in reverse. This is all subject to lots of change, especially since we're a looong ways away from the start of the regular season. As for your second question:Assuming no juice, I would expect to see the following approximate money lines for the above favorites.1pt: -1052.5pts: -1203pts: -1503.5pts: -180 6.5: -2507.0: -2907.5: -33010.0: -475These could be way off, and of course ever situation is different, but I'd imagine these would be serviceable for your purposes. Notice how costly it is to buy/sell half-points around the big numbers, for obvious reasons.
So a couple questions.. what detirmes if you take the money line vs the points? are there ever circumstances where there's a large difference between the money line and the point spread?
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So a couple questions.. what detirmes if you take the money line vs the points? are there ever circumstances where there's a large difference between the money line and the point spread?
If I'm playing a game for a double (or triple or something), I might play the moneyline, too, to save myself some money or some stress.For example, I really liked Lithuania +2 vs. Argentina in Olympic basketball. It was a double, one unit Lithuania +2 -104 (wagering 1.04 units to win 1.00 units), one unit Lithuania to win +125 (wagering .80 units to win 1.00 units). If Argentina wins by 9 or something, I saved myself a little money. Of course, I would have blown a gasket if Argentina had won by a point or two.Luckily Lithuania won, so it didn't matter. I ended up winning 2x, and would have no matter what method I'd used to get both units down. I'm almost always betting TO WIN x # of units (instead of risking x # of units). Honestly, it probably works out the same no matter which way I get it down in the long-run.If I'm backing a favorite and I don't want to deal with the stress of sweating a cover in a close game, I might just lay the chalk and play the money line. A lot of it is just my personal preference, based on my mood and current risk preference.
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Don't you think a lot of money is pouring in on the Jets already?? And the line still hasn't moved. Hmmm...It is good, because it means the books are taking a hard line with JoeBlowPublic. Money is pouring in on the Jets, and the books probably like Miami catching a field-goal at home. Miami was already a super-unpopular home dog, meaning there is probably value in taking Miami, especially since they really weren't as bad as their record suggested last year. There is a strong tendency for teams that have terrible records one year to exceed expectations the next. The same concept applies in reverse.
I dont know how much the money is pouring we are still a few weeks away...i think more money might come in after this preseason game. Regardless of how good of qb farve it there is no way he will pick up the entire offense and the timing down in 3 weeks. I dont know if ill play this game, but most likely that week my degenerate gamblingitis will take over and ill prob just bet it...lol
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So I got into an argument with a fellow sports bettor today. He's a smart guy, and I ran my basic contrarian methodology by him:Wang says: "The books know the true odds of an outcome, and are profit maximizers who will take risks if it means increased profitability. They will knowingly put themselves in jeopardy if they know it will increase their equity."He says: "I disagree. I think the books are totally risk-averse, and are simply going for split action. In almost all cases, they'll put out numbers that guarantee them as close to even action as they can get. Sometimes this is impossible, since sharps would capitalize too quickly in many cases, but most of the time, the book is just trying to balance action out."I responded, and said even if he is right -- if books are chiefly concerned with getting split action -- my methodology is still just as profitable.What was my argument? Can anybody fill in my response? Who do I not care whether the books are trying to get split action?

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Even if the bookies are completely risk averse, they still hold what we will call (for argument's sake) "perfect knowledge" of the true odds, as well as a very accurate perception of the public opinion. So even if they are looking to split the action exactly evenly, they will move the line from the true odds to gain action on the opposite side of the public. In doing so, the create a more favorable line opposite the public, making it profitable to bet against what was the original majority.Any of this make sense?

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Even if the bookies are completely risk averse, they still hold what we will call (for argument's sake) "perfect knowledge" of the true odds, as well as a very accurate perception of the public opinion. So even if they are looking to split the action exactly evenly, they will move the line from the true odds to gain action on the opposite side of the public. In doing so, the create a more favorable line opposite the public, making it profitable to bet against what was the original majority.Any of this make sense?
Exactly right.
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Read the whole thread, I know nothing about sportsbetting. Very interesting. A couple questions (answer and ignore whatever you want, obv), how long have you been sportsbetting? What is the smallest a "unit" can be? What is your unit size? Is this a profession for you? What is "laying chalk"? Very cool thread and I've enjoyed the read.

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