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I want an article on tournament poker downswings. I'm on a 4 month downswing now and it starts to get boring. I'm literally winning zero all ins in important situations (like, for chipleading stacks or heavily life-supplying chips deep in tournaments), like flips or even 65/35's, but i win almost any flip against super-shorties which don't help me that much. Also at all my FTs the past 4months i got redicolous bad beats and sick coolers (like flush over flush, AA cracked AIPF and so on) All in All my situational bad luck is pretty huge for 4 months now (it all started with my sunday hundred grand ft). I'm even already -ROI at OPR where i was 90% 4 months ago, and i swear its not tilting or bad playing.
I know how you feel. 1.5 months ago I felt the same exact way. Losing all my flips in critical situations etc etc etc. I actually switched games(went to 6max NLHE) to snap myself out of it. It got to a point with me where it was starting to affect my confidence/play. I dont know enough about poker to give you any advice but thats what i ended up doing.
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Seriously, though, for anyone who hasn't met Dustin, do so. I tried to explain him to my wife, and it's pointless. Words can't describe.
Dustin:3/4 Male porn star1/8 High School English teacher1/16 Hippie1/16 Bum100% good guy.
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Dustin:3/4 Male porn star1/8 High School English teacher1/16 Hippie1/16 Bum100% good guy.
For some reason I was expecting that not to add up to 1.
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I know people who are a lot smarter than me have put a lot of thought into this, but I'm not so sure I believe in long term swings. At least I don't think we should ever tell ourselves we are in the midst of one. The only way something that happened 500 hands ago or 5000 hands ago or 20000 hands ago can be possibly connected to the hand you're currently playing is in your mind, and I think it hurts us to think of ourselves as being on a downswing or upswing. I know we've heard this a million times but the cards have no memory. We need to figure out how much our bankroll needs to be so that we're comfortable with the mathematical probability of going broke (Which is impossible to determine, but we can make our best educated guess.) and if we reach that point, or if we're forced to move down, we still shouldn't attribute it to a "swing". It might seem like I'm oversimplifying things, but thinking about whether or not you're on a downswing can only hurt you psychologically, no matter how mentally tough you think you are. I know its hard to ignore, and I'm not offering an alternative or a solution, just identifying something that may be a problem.I dunno if this makes any sense to anyone but me, or if I should even post this, but I see people talking about swings so much like they actually exist. Some people might have a bit of a skewed outlook regarding their results, it would help them to think about them a bit differently.
this post shows a pretty good deal of understanding. when i'm speaking of "downswings" (and i believe that many others do the same) i'm talking about the spots in your lifetime graph where you run HIGHLY below expectation. they are not real (just as the "impending" upswing is not :club: ). however, it becomes easier to convey an idea when speaking about them as though they were real. speaking of them in other terms is confusing as you experienced. goodluck.
100% good guy.
ty for the lover everyone.
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Nice post. I'm curious, everyone talks about your passion for the game.......do you get like the rest of us where you actually hate the game when things aren't going well?

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my misclicks are all preflop, and i explained to you how they're worth about -.02BB/100. in many cases they're actually +. i could probably prove that they actually increase the hourly. :club:
pfffft. people can make math show anything they want. for example, by not turning on his computer at all, navy could have significantly improved his hourly. math is pointless, it's all feel.
You're not the most popular person ever, but I'm not complaining.Navy, I barely know you, but from what I've heard I know you'll be fine. The most important thing is that you have an absolutely spanking jacket, and that's more valuable than any book, training video or cliche sentence could ever be.
FYP
For some reason I was expecting that not to add up to 1.
pfffft. people can make math show anything they want. for example, navy is clearly the equal of two good men, yet that equation only shows one. math is pointless!
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I know how you feel. 1.5 months ago I felt the same exact way. Losing all my flips in critical situations etc etc etc. I actually switched games(went to 6max NLHE) to snap myself out of it. It got to a point with me where it was starting to affect my confidence/play. I dont know enough about poker to give you any advice but thats what i ended up doing.
Changing games didn't help me a lot but I'm still confident. I know that I'm a pretty good tournament player and that I'm just on the downswing of my life. I mean it probably sounds stupid/whiny but I won _0_ All Ins where I was not a short stack. For the past 4 months i only entered FTs as last in chips or close to it. And I'm still 100% sure that my play is not the reason for it. It's like I get a big stack, lose an all in or two (maybe flips, maybe suckouts) and then I'm short, just going along and stealing , and that's it. I'm starting to wonder if people who win that much in tournaments with fields that big (like TJ, GrinderMJ and so on) just run way too good. Okay, those guys probably play a sick amount of tournaments, but if i take someone like jcashx who fts a lot recently , i just think that some players run way better than some others. no offense to jcashx, but I railed most if not all of his fts and sometimes before he went to the ft. he didn't play all that great, he just ran way too good (recent example: hitting OESD after trying to bluff3bet and failing). of course he didn't play bad or anything, but he just didn't seem to lose. that doesn't mean he wins every all in, but that he probably gets paid off a lot when he makes flushes postf or if he gets dealt AA. and don't ask, of course I'm jealous.It seems to me that in tournaments with player fields of like >2k (basically every regular stars guarantee and most of the lower buyins), you can't play nearly enough in your lifetime to even out variance. the only thing you can do is lower variance by playing good, and then you either run good or you don't.
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Changing games didn't help me a lot but I'm still confident. I know that I'm a pretty good tournament player and that I'm just on the downswing of my life. I mean it probably sounds stupid/whiny but I won _0_ All Ins where I was not a short stack. For the past 4 months i only entered FTs as last in chips or close to it. And I'm still 100% sure that my play is not the reason for it. It's like I get a big stack, lose an all in or two (maybe flips, maybe suckouts) and then I'm short, just going along and stealing , and that's it. I'm starting to wonder if people who win that much in tournaments with fields that big (like TJ, GrinderMJ and so on) just run way too good. Okay, those guys probably play a sick amount of tournaments, but if i take someone like jcashx who fts a lot recently , i just think that some players run way better than some others. no offense to jcashx, but I railed most if not all of his fts and sometimes before he went to the ft. he didn't play all that great, he just ran way too good (recent example: hitting OESD after trying to bluff3bet and failing). of course he didn't play bad or anything, but he just didn't seem to lose. that doesn't mean he wins every all in, but that he probably gets paid off a lot when he makes flushes postf or if he gets dealt AA. and don't ask, of course I'm jealous.It seems to me that in tournaments with player fields of like >2k (basically every regular stars guarantee and most of the lower buyins), you can't play nearly enough in your lifetime to even out variance. the only thing you can do is lower variance by playing good, and then you either run good or you don't.
Reserving this for a response later.
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I'm curious, everyone talks about your passion for the game.......do you get like the rest of us where you actually hate the game when things aren't going well?
there's a part of me that semi-regrets the lifestyle i live. i desire to make a lot of money with very little work, and wouldn't mind being able to do that without ever going to sleep with less money than i woke with. of course it's all theoretical that a winning player actually "loses" money.my only hate for the actual game is that i love it too much. it's like a cheating spouse you could complain about but never stop loving. i wish i didn't think about it so much. it's unhealthy. i forgo certain aspects of relationships with people i care about because i can't let the game go. i've tried to work on it. the only way i let go of the game is with chemicals which is even more unhealthy. even during this stretch i've woke up every morning super refreshed with a strong desire to play the game.
pfffft. people can make math show anything they want. for example, by not turning on his computer at all, navy could have significantly improved his hourly. math is pointless, it's all feel.
we'll talk about why i think this is incorrect later on AIM.
FYP
i laughed.
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FYP
GODDAMMITI didn't copy your joke. Hell, all I read was "navybuttons" and "downswing"great minds and allor gay minds. Either way, I'm ok with it.
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tournaments
i doubt very few people in this world can wrap their minds around how long the long term in tournaments is. sure we can say "you need 100 buy-ins or whatever," but that's not an understanding. it's not that we're dumb, but it's like trying to wrap your mind around the grahm's number of poker.note: this is just what my gut instinct tells me. i don't have any data to back it up. i could very easily be wrong.
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GODDAMMITI didn't copy your joke. Hell, all I read was "navybuttons" and "downswing"great minds and allor gay minds. Either way, I'm ok with it.
AWESOMEno problemindeedpossible. me too
i doubt very few people in this world can wrap their minds around how long the long term in tournaments is. sure we can say "you need 100 buy-ins or whatever," but that's not an understanding. it's not that we're dumb, but it's like trying to wrap your mind around the grahm's number of poker.note: this is just what my gut instinct tells me. i don't have any data to back it up. i could very easily be wrong.
this is something that i have no doubt of. i'm not a math guy, seriously, but it seems really really obvious to me that the LONG TERM is completely unobtainable in tournaments, no matter how many you play. it's like thinking the long term of hitting the lottery is obtainable or something.
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Yeah, the sick part is that every number you ever hear thrown out for how many hands you need to play to get an idea of your win rate is grossly skewed towards the low end. No doubt in my mind its in the millions of hands. I remember when these discussions came up a couple years ago, everyone kind of accepted 50k, 100k as logical answers and those are really LOL.

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Yeah, the sick part is that every number you ever hear thrown out for how many hands you need to play to get an idea of your win rate is grossly skewed towards the low end. No doubt in my mind its in the millions of hands. I remember when these discussions came up a couple years ago, everyone kind of accepted 50k, 100k as logical answers and those are really LOL.
good lord, if it's only 100k hands then june says i am very very bad at poker.
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Reserving this for a response later.
uhhh i'm excited :club: . when is later?edit:
i doubt very few people in this world can wrap their minds around how long the long term in tournaments is. sure we can say "you need 100 buy-ins or whatever," but that's not an understanding. it's not that we're dumb, but it's like trying to wrap your mind around the grahm's number of poker.note: this is just what my gut instinct tells me. i don't have any data to back it up. i could very easily be wrong.
Yeah, I don't even try to wrap around anything because i have simply no idea how to think about it. If you play cash games you get a feel for it, but in tournaments the variety of situations is just so huge that i don't even want to try to understand on my own. that's why i want someone with math skills to go into it (maybe cop,actuary, simo? if you're reading this?)
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Spinpoker could be a quick way to pump up your bankrolljust putting that out there.
the JW Marriott in Summerlin has a small casino, and this game is in there!I got Sylvia hooked on it. We played for 45 minutes and never went broke and enjoyed endless drinks.Dustin was right: this game could break the house. :club:
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Great Post Navy I basically went through the same thing. I had basically a 6 week break even streak (without bonus's and such) including running 30 buyins under expectation for two months... it can be a horrible horrible game. But I have really worked on showing up with the right state of mind. For a while when I sat down to play I was going on feeling like I was going to lose... sure enough I found a way to. Confidence is so key. But we all have leaks and one thing I have found that is great about being a poker player is that you have an excuse to invest in yourself and make sure that you are a well rounded person because in the end that is going to make you a better poker player. Recently I have taken up playing tennis probably 5 times a week (weather and partner permitting) and getting out and exercising has helped my poker game so much. It is amazing how much more energy I have and how much easier it is to make the right decisions.Anywho I am rambling but great post! :club:

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Dustin:3/4 Male porn star1/8 High School English teacher1/16 Hippie1/16 Bum100% good guy.
When Dustin picked me up at the airport in Vegas in June 2007, before I'd ever met him before, I was pretty sure I was being abducted, raped, killed for my organs, etc.I was wrong. Turns out he just dresses like a porn star english teaching hippie bum.Good guy tho, and it kills me to see him go through this, because it means it will happen to me sooner rather than later.
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Good guy tho, and it kills me to see him go through this, because it means it will happen to me sooner rather than later.
i disagree. i would say later for you. i've thought about what i've been going through a lot (capt. obvious), and i would say that it should happen maybe twice every 4-5 years of full time play. my guess is our game could be dead before it ever happens to you.
But we all have leaks and one thing I have found that is great about being a poker player is that you have an excuse to invest in yourself and make sure that you are a well rounded person because in the end that is going to make you a better poker player.
i agree with this more than i can express. although i doubt that the best are "well rounded" in that they probably are too obsessed with the game, the absolute world class players probably have a bunch of intangibles that many players cannot fully comprehend.
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good read, though i do NOT like bryce paradis getting his name capitalized when you are using i rather than I. please fix that, then i can really concentrate on the story & let it stew around in the ole brainpan.

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i would say that it should happen maybe twice every 4-5 years of full time play.
Does this mean twice in the world every 4-5 years or twice per (full time) capita?
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