Sports! (betting)

[Moneyball16 0]

Was looking at baseball futures tonight and saw some possible +EV bets for yall. These odds are from bodog. There may be better prices out there.Brewers at 15-1 to win the world series or 7-1 to with the national league pennant. Baseball Prospectus between there 3 playoff odds reports has them somewhere between 80-88%(before last nights loss) to make the playoffs and from there even though they are unlikely to have home field they still have a devastating 1-2 punch which is very important in the playoffs.The Rays at 7-1 to win the world series and 4-1 to win the AL pennant. According to BP they will probably make the playoffs over 90 % of the time(sorry Yankee fans) and in the playoffs they will most likely face the AL playoff retard either the ChiSox or the Twins in the first round with home field advantage plus if they make the WS AL has home field too. This is a very good team. You have to give them respect for leading the hardest division in baseball at this point and they have the makings of a decent playoff team with good defense and good frontline pitching with Kazmir and Shields. Having Percival as your closer is a definite beat though.Other possible good bets that Im not so sure on-Red Sox. 6-1 to repeat, 2.5-1 to win pennant.White Sox. 8-1 to win pennant.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Was looking at baseball futures tonight and saw some possible +EV bets for yall. These odds are from bodog. There may be better prices out there.Brewers at 15-1 to win the world series or 7-1 to with the national league pennant. Baseball Prospectus between there 3 playoff odds reports has them somewhere between 80-88%(before last nights loss) to make the playoffs and from there even though they are unlikely to have home field they still have a devastating 1-2 punch which is very important in the playoffs.The Rays at 7-1 to win the world series and 4-1 to win the AL pennant. According to BP they will probably make the playoffs over 90 % of the time(sorry Yankee fans) and in the playoffs they will most likely face the AL playoff retard either the ChiSox or the Twins in the first round with home field advantage plus if they make the WS AL has home field too. This is a very good team. You have to give them respect for leading the hardest division in baseball at this point and they have the makings of a decent playoff team with good defense and good frontline pitching with Kazmir and Shields. Having Percival as your closer is a definite beat though.Other possible good bets that Im not so sure on-Red Sox. 6-1 to repeat, 2.5-1 to win pennant.White Sox. 8-1 to win pennant.

The Rays at 4-1 to win the pennant is probably just a slight -EV bet. Using a cheap/quick/dirty version of the log5 method, they'd probably be around 22-25% to win the pennant if they make the playoffs. Obviously, it really depends on where in the range that falls, since at 22% it's a loser, but at 23% it's a winner. If I were so inclined, I'd figure each all the playoff scenarios using pythagorean W/L, and BP 3rd order W/L, but I already hold a pretty good sized Rays ticket purchased much earlier in the year, so I won't be adding on.Wang

[Theraflu 1,035]

The Rays at 4-1 to win the pennant is probably just a slight -EV bet. Using a cheap/quick/dirty version of the log5 method, they'd probably be around 22-25% to win the pennant if they make the playoffs. Obviously, it really depends on where in the range that falls, since at 22% it's a loser, but at 23% it's a winner. If I were so inclined, I'd figure each all the playoff scenarios using pythagorean W/L, and BP 3rd order W/L, but I already hold a pretty good sized Rays ticket purchased much earlier in the year, so I won't be adding on.Wang

Poor Evan. I like the Aybar baseball family as much as the next guy, but I'll be pretty surprised if anyone starts calling him The Almighty Aybar. David Price will be interesting to watch. And it's a pretty good story to see the Mitochondrial Kid back on the field. (I'm trying to work out a good nickname for him, but that's all I got. That, and a bunch of mitochondrial jokes that no one gets.)

[Tactical Bear 3]

Poor Evan. I like the Aybar baseball family as much as the next guy, but I'll be pretty surprised if anyone starts calling him The Almighty Aybar. David Price will be interesting to watch. And it's a pretty good story to see the Mitochondrial Kid back on the field. (I'm trying to work out a good nickname for him, but that's all I got. That, and a bunch of mitochondrial jokes that no one gets.)

Poor Evan? Poor me; I had a deal in place for 1$ David Price and 1$ Chris Davis aaaall set to go down in my keeper league (I'm way out of it, and rebuilding for next year), and then LongoBongo has to fuck his hand up and I can't unload him.But, yeah, it's pretty cool to see Rocco back. I am rooting for him. He made a great catch in rightfield the other day that probably cost me a good chunk of money.

[powerpoker 0]

i forgot to put up my plays for the day booked a small wintenn-4 (L)A's +110 (w)Parlay Clev (-145)wDodgers (-140)wI havent decided on everything i want for tomorrow yet

[Tactical Bear 3]

i forgot to put up my plays for the day booked a small wintenn-4 (L)A's +110 (w)Parlay Clev (-145)wDodgers (-140)wI havent decided on everything i want for tomorrow yet

Oh, me too. 7 team parlay:A's, Phillies, Indians, Royals, Cubs, Giants, and whichever team covered in the Angola/Greece game. 500 dollars to win a Porsche.

[powerpoker 0]

Oh, me too. 7 team parlay:A's, Phillies, Indians, Royals, Cubs, Giants, and whichever team covered in the Angola/Greece game. 500 dollars to win a Porsche.

awesome...what kind of porsche

[powerpoker 0]

wash +2.5mia over 34colts over 37.5kc -2seattle +2WSX/A's under 8 -105

[Tactical Bear 3]

Lotsa leans for NFL X tonight. I haven't been going nuts for preseason football just yet, but it appears I am going to be this evening. I am sure that has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that I have lots of free time starting around 8pm.Baltimore -1 Miami +3.5 Atlanta -3 Kansas City -1 Denver -3 Chicago Bears -2.5 St Louis Rams -3.5 (though I won't play this game at this number)If I play any of these, I will post them w/corresponding size and juice around 6PM

[Tactical Bear 3]

The Nats opened at like -145 last night/this morning. That number has dropped, but what a sick line for a team that's in the midst of their second 8 game losing streak in less than a month.Washington -140 (1x)Washington -1.5 +147 (1x)That way I can count this as two separate losses.

[powerpoker 0]

wash +2.5mia over 34colts over 37.5kc -2seattle +2WSX/A's under 8 -105

ok so these two overs are starting to piss me off. Both Indy and Atl had first and goals from around the 5 and both had to settle for FG's in the first half...this game should be a lot higher score than just 16 at the first half. Jacksonville's offense was non existent in the first half having the ball inside the 5 and fumbling it on the 2 (fantastic...sigh). still got a second half where all these nflx games get decided.covered the baseball game though...weeeee

[Tactical Bear 3]

If Carl Pettersson doesn't win the Wyndham today, I will be a very unhappy bear, considering I went a disastrous 2-14 yesterday.Coming soon to a thread near you: Sports betting and Tilt Control: The Epic Ballad of the Shattered Remote

[powerpoker 0]

If Carl Pettersson doesn't win the Wyndham today, I will be a very unhappy bear, considering I went a disastrous 2-14 yesterday.Coming soon to a thread near you: Sports betting and Tilt Control: The Epic Ballad of the Shattered Remote

Lol...nice...ill be lookin forward to it. Ive been there pleanty of times, last year i had a horrid weekend in pro and college ball i was 1-15. I went 0-10 on saturday and went 1-4 on sunday and then lost the monday night game. Anyway today looks like another small w...had 7 plays in baseball. Shame i didnt play my lean toward TB in NFLX but oh well.Had clev (L), fla (L), SF (W), Arz/Hou over (L), Min RL (W), PHI-TB parlay (W)

[Tactical Bear 3]

Lol...nice...ill be lookin forward to it. Ive been there pleanty of times, last year i had a horrid weekend in pro and college ball i was 1-15. I went 0-10 on saturday and went 1-4 on sunday and then lost the monday night game. Anyway today looks like another small w...had 7 plays in baseball. Shame i didnt play my lean toward TB in NFLX but oh well.Had clev (L), fla (L), SF (W), Arz/Hou over (L), Min RL (W), PHI-TB parlay (W)

Don't take this the wrong way, but there is really no point it posting your record (3-3 today, for example, including the parlay as one play) AFTER the games are complete. If you want to keep a record, you should. It would be awesome. But post all plays BEFORE they go off (with the price/juice and size [risk 1x, to win 1x, risking 3x, etc.] or else it's not much good. Keep in mind I don't keep a record for anyone here, and am about to talk about a golf outright I just hit:Okay, so I narrowly avoided going insane today. I had McCarron (125-1) and Pettersson (35-1) picked out on Wednesday as my potential golf-outrights. One would have been a tail, and the other was one of my favorite golfers on tour. So I hemmed, and I hawed, and I finally decided to go with McCarron. When I decided to play a 1x bet on him to win outright, I saw the price on him had dropped to 100-1. I was still going to play it, but finally I thought, "If you only had a slight lean at 125-1, then you should probably back off when the price gets 20% shorter."So I got a piece of Petterson at 35-1. Did anybody see what happened on the golf course today? Pettersson went in with a 2 stroke lead over.... Scott McCarron. I was sick. The difference between a Pettersson win (+35x) and a McCarron win (-1x) doesn't really do it justice. Passing McCarron to play Pettersson was potentialy 136x swing. Think about that, real quick. The difference between my play and my pass if McCarron won was MORE THAN THE SIZE OF MY ENTIRE BANKROLL.And Pettersson started falling apart. It looked disastrous for him at one point. I ended up escaping with a win, but it took all my (inconsiderable) fortitude not to throw up more than twice.

[powerpoker 0]

Don't take this the wrong way, but there is really no point it posting your record (3-3 today, for example, including the parlay as one play) AFTER the games are complete. If you want to keep a record, you should. It would be awesome. But post all plays BEFORE they go off (with the price/juice and size [risk 1x, to win 1x, risking 3x, etc.] or else it's not much good. Keep in mind I don't keep a record for anyone here, and am about to talk about a golf outright I just hit:Okay, so I narrowly avoided going insane today. I had McCarron (125-1) and Pettersson (35-1) picked out on Wednesday as my potential golf-outrights. One would have been a tail, and the other was one of my favorite golfers on tour. So I hemmed, and I hawed, and I finally decided to go with McCarron. When I decided to play a 1x bet on him to win outright, I saw the price on him had dropped to 100-1. I was still going to play it, but finally I thought, "If you only had a slight lean at 125-1, then you should probably back off when the price gets 20% shorter."So I got a piece of Petterson at 35-1. Did anybody see what happened on the golf course today? Pettersson went in with a 2 stroke lead over.... Scott McCarron. I was sick. The difference between a Pettersson win (+35x) and a McCarron win (-1x) doesn't really do it justice. Passing McCarron to play Pettersson was potentialy 136x swing. Think about that, real quick. The difference between my play and my pass if McCarron won was MORE THAN THE SIZE OF MY ENTIRE BANKROLL.And Pettersson started falling apart. It looked disastrous for him at one point. I ended up escaping with a win, but it took all my (inconsiderable) fortitude not to throw up more than twice.

no problem...i keep a record for myself, i have no prob throwing them up here, i usually put them in in the morning after i get done work, and after i get done at the sportsbook i fall asleep before i hit the computer again.

[leftygolfer 7]

Bear/Wang,This guy is a former Chicago sports talking head.Thought you would enjoy his website The Tips for Smart Play make sense?

[Tactical Bear 3]

Bear/Wang,This guy is a former Chicago sports talking head.Thought you would enjoy his website The Tips for Smart Play make sense?

"Mike North is giving his picks live from Las Vegas this week! North is up 700 units after the first week." I stopped reading right there. He's a tout, plain and simple. His "Smart Play" tips are pretty common sense, except the ones that don't make sense or are retarded. Fuck you, Mike North; if every game is playable, I'm playing every fucking game. And some of them are simple vagaries that do nobody any good. "Do your research" doesn't really SAY anything. "Stay away from favorites in TV games" is just bad advice. Stay away from POPULAR favorites in TV games is better advice, but "STAY AWAY FROM POPULAR TEAMS NO MATTER WHAT" is the advice I give, which is even better. Tampa was throwing Kazmir as a favorite vs. Dice-K and the Sox at home on the Wednesday or Sunday Night game. Who do you think got most of the action there? The Rays as favs or the Sox as Dogs? Of course I played the favorite in a nationally televised game. Because I am not retarded. Knowing where public money is coming in is a very large chunk of the battle. THe rest is just experience and tinkering.

[PMJackson21 0]

Wang - I was musing about this earlier; with Favre going to the Jets, how much value will there be betting against them early in the year? Huge, right? I have to figure the public loves Favre + a NY team = huge amounts of money on the Jets.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Wang - I was musing about this earlier; with Favre going to the Jets, how much value will there be betting against them early in the year? Huge, right? I have to figure the public loves Favre + a NY team = huge amounts of money on the Jets.

Well, it will be pretty easy to tell. If all the clowns at covers.com and the wagerline tards are hammering the Jets the first few games of the year, you can bet I'll be on the other side. I've already got Miami penciled in for week 1.

[Tactical Bear 3]

The line on the Astros (Wolf) Brewers (Sabathia) tilt is pretty hilarious. The Brewers are being offered at -275. Are the Astros only fielding 8 players or something? Don't get me wrong: I really don't like that Astros lineup (note to Cecil Cooper: stop hitting Miggy 3rd), but it's not like Randy Wolf sucks THAT bad. If I weren't trying to keep all MLB bets singles, I would be on the Devil Rays for about a third of my bankroll tonight.Look the Rays' and Angels' third order records (Hint: the difference between the Rays and the Angels is about the same as the difference between the Angels and the Mariners, or the Mets and the Nationals). Then Look at Andy Sonnanstine's FIP (3.5) and Garland's (4.7). Then look at where the game is being played (fucking Florida). So the Angels are about 10 full wins better than the Angels so far, have a significantly better pitcher on the mound, and are playing at home. What's the price of this game? Rays -140? Rays -150? Jesus, -170 or something?No. Rays -105. "Well, Derek," I am sure you are all asking, "don't you always say the books are really good at their jobs? That there's a reason for every line they put out there? That if a bet looks too good to be true, it surely is?"I would respond: shut the fuck up, you chorus of faggots. And then I would laugh in your retarded faces, because the Angels are getting hammered. Rays -104 (1x)Houston +272 (1x) I am sure I'll end up on Seattle as well, but that's about it.

[Tactical Bear 3]

If I weren't trying to keep all MLB bets singles, I would be on the Devil Rays for about a third of my bankroll tonight.

Okay, so I cheated. Tampa Bay to win the series -110, (2x)I don't know why I do this. I think I've already jinxed Tampa Bay to the point of no return. These bets are dead.EDIT: As I was typing this, Juan Rivera hit a homerun. Awesome.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I'm calling my shot right now. If the Angels meet the Rays or White Sox in the ALDS or ALCS, I am going to blow the fuck up. I may be completely and totally unable to control my action. Every single one of my baseball plays this year has been a 1-unit grind play. All of them, except for a few "okay I know I am cheating but eff you" plays like the series play today. That being said, don't doubt that if Rays/Angels goes off in the ALDS, I will be on the Rays +125 for like 10x.

[powerpoker 0]

I'm calling my shot right now. If the Angels meet the Rays or White Sox in the ALDS or ALCS, I am going to blow the fuck up. I may be completely and totally unable to control my action. Every single one of my baseball plays this year has been a 1-unit grind play. All of them, except for a few "okay I know I am cheating but eff you" plays like the series play today. That being said, don't doubt that if Rays/Angels goes off in the ALDS, I will be on the Rays +125 for like 10x.

completely agree

[powerpoker 0]

quick question since i dont bet baseball that often, how often do you bet RL's. Like tonight with brewers being such a massive favorite would you consider the run line int that game and drop them down to like -140 or so?

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

What's on tap for tonight Wang?