Sports! (betting)

[Tactical Bear 3]

quick question since i dont bet baseball that often, how often do you bet RL's. Like tonight with brewers being such a massive favorite would you consider the run line int that game and drop them down to like -140 or so?

I dunno, I'm so rarely on big favorites that I rarely feel the need to play a runline. Sometimes, like if I'm laying a lot of chalk with Tampa Bay or Boston against the Los Angeles Angels, I'll consider it. I have played probably 3-5 runlines this year, and at least twice I've simply split my bet up into halves, half a unit on the moneyline and half on the runline, so I won't go on a killing spree if my team wins by a run. It doesn't really change your equity, any. If you have an edge on the moneyline, you have an edge on the runline, but I also really, really hate laying chalk, so to keep myself sane I have played a few runlines to "save myself some money" when my squad gets blown out.Case in point: the Nats were laying -145 at home with Lannan on the mound against De La Rosa and the Rox while in the midst of a 9 game losing streak, so I put half a unit on the ML and half on the RL to make it a little easier to stomach. But, again, it doesn't change anything in the longrun, and it's rarely an issue for me because I don't play a ton of big favorites. Teams that are laying -220 are generally off my radar.

What's on tap for tonight Wang?

Whoops. A little late. All I'm doing now is praying that Hurricane Fay doesn't wipe out the last game of my Devil Rays/Angels series and cost me that bet. I really, really like the under in the Croatia/Spain game. It's comically low, and really has no chance of hitting. I wouldn't feel comfortable playing it at 160, let alone 150...Wang

[Tactical Bear 3]

Okay, so I had to go in to work today to deal for like 2 hours because we were really short handed for a while, and that's what management does. This 22 year old kid was playing 5/10 and running like a freight train, and kept checking his phone. Somebody asked what he was doing, and since he loves talking about himself almost as much as I did, he started running his mouth about how much money he bets on sports, and how much he wins, and how he kills the books and moves lines and stuff. Whatever, I was dealing so I tried to keep my mouth shut. One of my best friends, who happens to know how seriously I take my sports-wagering habit, starts egging him on. Douche: "Yeah, so I have a lot of balls in the air today. I've got a loooot of money on the games today, you know?"Friend: "Oh yeah? Who do you have today? Like Boston, Philly, Milwaukee? The Angels?" Douche: "You know it."Friend: "Huh. Those teams were pretty big favorites, all of them. That's a lot of chalk."Douche: "Yeah, well, not how I do it."Friend: "What?"Douche: "The key is, you get your bets in early. All these games, Vegas opens the lines for the favorites really low, hoping people will bet the underdogs, so they can move the lines and get the best of both worlds. I put my bets in right when they release the lines."Friend: "Oh yeah? Who do you have for tomorrow, then?"Douche: "Oh, I haven't put my bets in for tomorrow's games yet."Friend: "So, not RIGHT when they release the lines...?"Douche: "I can usually get away with waiting until the day of."Friend: "Hmmm... well, that's still a lot of chalk."Douche: "Well, not if you do it the way I do it."Friend: "No matter how soon you get your bets in, you're going to be laying one-to-two on most of those ga-"Douche: "Oh yeah asshole? What if you parlay the juice away? I bet you didn't think about that. Instead of laying two-to-one on two games, I'm getting almost even money, just like that. It's just like betting an even-money team, except I have TWO GOOD TEAMS."Friend: "You're right. I'd never thought of that."At this point I just started laughing. I went from totally quiet, to just sobbing at the table. I actually had to set the deck down between hands to wipe the tears out of my eyes. "Parlay the juice away." Oh my GOD are you serious?Douche: (to me) "What are you laughing at?"Friend: "He's laughing at you because you are an idiot."Douche: "Yeah, whatever. I bet more on every game than you make here in a week, dude. Straight cash, man. Straight. Cash."Anyway, I wish I'd thought of that. Parlay the juice away... oh lord.

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

I have a friend who thinks you can parlay the juice away too. I've had the same conversation with him three times over the last couple years explaining to him what's going on.That's a good friend you got by the way.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Yeah, I only surround myself with people who will say what needs to be said, even when it shouldn't be said. All of my friends would defend me even when I am totally wrong, and I do the same. My buddy just needled the guy endlessly while I was there. Caught him with a few inconsistencies that made it seem like he was lying. The douche said, at one point, "Hey, you do things your way, and I do things mine, okay? Why do you care so much?" or something like that, and my friend said, and I quote nearly verbatim: "Well, because I have decided I hate almost everything about you. I wish I could say this is for your own good or that I'm trying to prove a point, but that's not it. The thing is, I hate you and want to make you feel bad about yourself."He's probably a terrible person, much like myself.On a separate note, how excited are you for college football? I'm going to make a thread in general sports where we can track 2008 records and posted plays and offer analysis. I wish I had mod powers, because I'm going to be really hardcore about some shit in that thread.Wang

[speedz99 145]

This one time, I bet this guy, like, a dollar, that these guys, from Georgie, I think, had found the real Bigfoot, and weren't just, like he said, totally faking it. It was awesome.

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

The under looks pretty good in the Spain-Croatia game. This is like watching a late 90's Knicks-Heat game.I can't believe there's a 17-year old starting point guard on a Gold Medal contending Olympic team.Can't say I'm excited for college football. I've only watched one game since I became older than college athletes, but I am excited to piggy back all your football picks this year if you don't mind.

[Tactical Bear 3]

The under looks pretty good in the Spain-Croatia game. This is like watching a late 90's Knicks-Heat game.I can't believe there's a 17-year old starting point guard on a Gold Medal contending Olympic team.Can't say I'm excited for college football. I've only watched one game since I became older than college athletes, but I am excited to piggy back all your football picks this year if you don't mind.

I need a place to come and bitch and moan about my sports bets. This will be that place. Nobody around here bets sports, I don't think, but (shrug) who knows.I have a few requests:1) Do not jinx my ****ing action. If something good happens, don't say "nice bet!" or "good win!" until the gun goes off. I am dead serious about this.Actually it was just the one.

Please remember Rule 1. When the Croats go 12-12 in the second half from beyond the arc and the game ends up in OT, I am going to be an irrationally angry panda.Easiest way to become interested in a sport = gamble. I've got no clue how I'll do on the NFL, but there's at least a 30% chance I'll be break-even-or-better, so I am going to bet that (heavily), too. Matchbook's liquidity has been pretty crappy for NFLX action so far, and I just saw that the comission on everything except baseball is 2% instead of 1%, so I am slightly concerned that my edge just disappeared. I can not wait until an overtime game costs me a total AND a side when some bullshit cornerback falls on his ass. "Thanks, buddy. I had a 5 point margin on the total and a 5 point cushion on the side, but you have the wrong cleats in and/or are drunk."I've been taking such a beating over the past two weeks on bases (good news: all the local bookies I know are hurting really bad right now, too, so I'm probably not making any mistakes) that I don't think any bad run will be able to tilt me. Remember I said this when I drop a ten-unit bomb on a Hawaii game (THEY DON'T KICK OFF UNTIL 1030 PM I CAN MAKE IT ALL BACK) in late October.Wang

[Tactical Bear 3]

Probably going to end up on:GaysRoxCainHotlantaTigers/Rangers under/shitfestI'll probably have a few more totals to add, too, if I get around to it.Also, I dropped a pretty irresponsible bomb on the Chicago White Sox to win the World Series at 19-1 today. I don't know why I got that price, but it certainly seems like value. I am hoping they pull away from Minny so I can just sell it off, but the way I see it:According to BPro, they have a 75% chance of making the playoffs.Assume they have a 40% chance of beating the Angels, Rays, or Sox, and are a coinflip against the NL..75% x 40% x 40% x 50% = 6%I am break even at 5% (19-1 = 1/20), so I have value. Now, if they're something like 42%, 42%, 53%, then I'm all the way up over 7%. If they are, like I tend to believe is the worst case scenario, something like 45, 45, 50 (keeping constant, of course, the 75% chance to make the playoffs), then they have a 7.5% chance of winning the world series. If that's the case, I have a very, very, very significant overlay. Of course, they may fare worse than 45% against the Red Sox, but should fare no worse than that against the Rays, and SIGNIFICANTLY better than that against the Angels. I think the White Sox are worse than the Red Sox, slightly worse than the Rays, and significantly better than the Angels. I think my overlay here is pretty significant, but I invested a large enough chunk in this that I'm willing to sell it off to lock up a small profit. This was more a learning exercise than anything.EDIT: I should mention that I tend to trust BPro's numbers a little too readily. If the Sox's odds to make the Playoffs are 62.5%, then my initial, pessimistic set of numbers would be completely breakeven. I think I'm in good shape though. Hopefully they make the playoffs and aren't huge dogs at any point.

[powerpoker 0]

I dunno, I'm so rarely on big favorites that I rarely feel the need to play a runline. Sometimes, like if I'm laying a lot of chalk with Tampa Bay or Boston against the Los Angeles Angels, I'll consider it. I have played probably 3-5 runlines this year, and at least twice I've simply split my bet up into halves, half a unit on the moneyline and half on the runline, so I won't go on a killing spree if my team wins by a run. It doesn't really change your equity, any. If you have an edge on the moneyline, you have an edge on the runline, but I also really, really hate laying chalk, so to keep myself sane I have played a few runlines to "save myself some money" when my squad gets blown out.Case in point: the Nats were laying -145 at home with Lannan on the mound against De La Rosa and the Rox while in the midst of a 9 game losing streak, so I put half a unit on the ML and half on the RL to make it a little easier to stomach. But, again, it doesn't change anything in the longrun, and it's rarely an issue for me because I don't play a ton of big favorites. Teams that are laying -220 are generally off my radar.Whoops. A little late. All I'm doing now is praying that Hurricane Fay doesn't wipe out the last game of my Devil Rays/Angels series and cost me that bet. I really, really like the under in the Croatia/Spain game. It's comically low, and really has no chance of hitting. I wouldn't feel comfortable playing it at 160, let alone 150...Wang

thanks, i like the splitting up your bets, on the RL and ML.

On a separate note, how excited are you for college football? I'm going to make a thread in general sports where we can track 2008 records and posted plays and offer analysis. I wish I had mod powers, because I'm going to be really hardcore about some shit in that thread.Wang

very, im absolutely in favor in college football having its own thread dedicated to records and analysis.

This one time, I bet this guy, like, a dollar, that these guys, from Georgie, I think, had found the real Bigfoot, and weren't just, like he said, totally faking it. It was awesome.

i remember that, it was good times. Tough beat though, tough beat

[powerpoker 0]

SF/CHI Under 36.5. Thats about it...more preseason action for tomorrow and saturday though.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I finally get the fade the Greatest Collection of Basketball Talent Ever. Argentina +20.5 -110 (2x)Argentina sucks. They'll lose 94-70.Lithuania +5.5, +103 (2x)Goodbye today's bases money.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Bodog has the Braves at 500/1 to win the NL. However, they also have the Braves at 250/1 to win the WS. Does not compute.Also, I just put $5 on the Blue Jays to win the WS at 250/1...and somehow think that's pretty legit.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Bodog has the Braves at 500/1 to win the NL. However, they also have the Braves at 250/1 to win the WS. Does not compute.Also, I just put $5 on the Blue Jays to win the WS at 250/1...and somehow think that's pretty legit.

It's not. Baseball Prospectus has them at a little less than a 1.05% chance of making the playoffs. Give them a 50% chance of winning each playoff round -- which is unfairly optimistic -- and I get the true price being a little closer to 750-1

[Tactical Bear 3]

Man, I won BOTH overnight games by a half-point. In both cases I saw the numbered offered lower. I almost just took Argentina +19.5 at Matchbook, and then did the math real quick, and realized I wasn't even getting a real juice reduction, so I took it at Olympic +20.5. Aaaaand I would have lost my mind had I not. Pretty much the same thing with Lithuania. Next time I start really bitching, just remind me of the time I won two Olympic basketball games by the hook.

[tskillz187 0]

Man, I won BOTH overnight games by a half-point. In both cases I saw the numbered offered lower. I almost just took Argentina +19.5 at Matchbook, and then did the math real quick, and realized I wasn't even getting a real juice reduction, so I took it at Olympic +20.5. Aaaaand I would have lost my mind had I not. Pretty much the same thing with Lithuania. Next time I start really bitching, just remind me of the time I won two Olympic basketball games by the hook.

With no Ginobs and a hobbled Nocioni! You had a lock before that. Always bet on Arg to cover against USA, they have the past 4 times they've met.Edit: Indianapolis they won, Athens they won, last yr with no Nocioni, Oberto, Ginobili, or Hermann, they cover, and then this cover.

[powerpoker 0]

i got 10 plays today...weeeewashington +260dodgers +115astros +190reds/rockies over 11.5 -105fla/arz under 9 -110toronto -110wsox RL +110nflxeagles +2.5eagles/pats under 37tenn +3all bets are 1 unitbtw nice cover on both games bear/wang

[Tactical Bear 3]

i got 10 plays today...weeeewashington +260dodgers +115astros +190reds/rockies over 11.5 -105fla/arz under 9 -110toronto -110wsox RL +110nflxeagles +2.5eagles/pats under 37tenn +3all bets are 1 unitbtw nice cover on both games bear/wang

Washington +263 (1)I haven't looked at the rest of the card yet. Lean ATL, PIT, MINNY.Slight lean to Tampa, but that number scares me. Tampa +165? That number is way too high. Probably a pass.Also lean Zona, Balty, and Toronto and Seattle both as home favs.

[CobaltBlue 662]

It's not. Baseball Prospectus has them at a little less than a 1.05% chance of making the playoffs.

I think 1% sounds too low. I just need them to be 3% to make it breakeven, right? They're playing 4 games below their X W-L and would be essentially tied for 4th in the AL if they were playing up to it. The Rays are 5 games over and the Twins are 3 games over. If they catch some breaks, I think they can pull out the WC. Obviously, it's not very likely to happen at all, but it could still be a fun time.Clearly, getting 250-1 on the Jays seems better than getting 250-1 on the Braves or Rangers or 300-1 on the Rockies. Heck, the Tigers are 100-1 somehow.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I think 1% sounds too low. I just need them to be 3% to make it breakeven, right? They're playing 4 games below their X W-L and would be essentially tied for 4th in the AL if they were playing up to it. The Rays are 5 games over and the Twins are 3 games over. If they catch some breaks, I think they can pull out the WC. Obviously, it's not very likely to happen at all, but it could still be a fun time.Clearly, getting 250-1 on the Jays seems better than getting 250-1 on the Braves or Rangers or 300-1 on the Rockies. Heck, the Tigers are 100-1 somehow.

Why do you think 1% seems low? You're right that the Bluejays are outperforming their record, but that doesn't change the fact that they're 5 full games behind the Red Sox (a team that is ALSO significantly underperforming w/r/t their Pythag and 3rd order W/L), even farther behind the Rays, and still have a (fucking luck-sack) Twins team to contend with. Plus, the BlueJays have an incredibly tough schedule left (opp. 3rd order winning %age as of Aug. 18 of .571, the most difficult of any team in the running), though they do play 55% of their games at home, which is a few more than the Sox, and tons more than the Twinkies. But B-Pro takes all of this (actually, I don't know if they adjust for strength of schedule, but it is definitely not in the Jays' favor if they didn't) into account, and that's where they got the 1%. You have absolutely no reason to believe 1% is low, as far as I can tell. Besides, the difference between 1% and 3% is not 2%, it's 300%; there is almost no chance BPro is off by that significant a margin. To put it into poker terms, that's like going from a 6 outer to an 18 outer, which is absurdly significant. Yeah, the Tigers are an even longer shot than the Jays, but that doesn't mean your Jays bet has any equity. These longshots are almost always really bad bets, especially this late in the season.Wang

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Baltimore to win the AFC North +805 (risking 2x)I've been mulling this play over for a while. Baltimore was pretty unlucky last year. They lost a ton of fumbles and had some injury problems in the defensive backfield. I think Cleveland is badly overrated, and the only difference between Baltimore and Pitt's schedule is:Pitt: New England and San DiegoBalty: Oakie and MiamiHmm. In terms of win expectancy, it's almost like Balty starts with a full-game head-start or something. I'll take 8-1 on those odds. Go Balty.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Why do you think 1% seems low? You're right that the Bluejays are outperforming their record, but that doesn't change the fact that they're 5 full games behind the Red Sox (a team that is ALSO significantly underperforming w/r/t their Pythag and 3rd order W/L), even farther behind the Rays, and still have a (fucking luck-sack) Twins team to contend with. Plus, the BlueJays have an incredibly tough schedule left (opp. 3rd order winning %age as of Aug. 18 of .571, the most difficult of any team in the running), though they do play 55% of their games at home, which is a few more than the Sox, and tons more than the Twinkies. But B-Pro takes all of this (actually, I don't know if they adjust for strength of schedule, but it is definitely not in the Jays' favor if they didn't) into account, and that's where they got the 1%. You have absolutely no reason to believe 1% is low, as far as I can tell. Besides, the difference between 1% and 3% is not 2%, it's 300%; there is almost no chance BPro is off by that significant a margin. To put it into poker terms, that's like going from a 6 outer to an 18 outer, which is absurdly significant. Yeah, the Tigers are an even longer shot than the Jays, but that doesn't mean your Jays bet has any equity. These longshots are almost always really bad bets, especially this late in the season.Wang

ESPN had the Jays at 3.8% to make the playoffs as of yesterday (down to 3% today =/). Any idea where they're getting that number from? However, I calculated it out assuming that they're flipping once they get to the playoffs...and there really wasn't much value in the play...I think it was breakeven at best. Oh, and Boston's only one game below their X W-L from what I see. If they can string together some wins against the AL East and Twins, they have some shot. Yeah, they mostly have to run like the sun, but I give a 3% chance of that happening. =)Anyway, upon closer examination, I do think there was decent value in my ChiSox and Dbacks bets, so I upped those.Also, more "realistic" poker terms are going from a 1% to win a hand to 3% to win a hand. =)

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I think ESPN uses www.coolstandings.com for their reports. CoolStandings has the Jays at 3% to make the playoffs. Even so, they'd be a weaker playoff team playing two roadies and a home series in the Playoffs, making them dogs in at least 2 of the 3 matchups. It's not like their true value is really 7-1 if they make the playoffs, anyway. As for Boston, coming into tonight, BPro had them at 2 wins below their Pythagorean W/L records, and about 6 games below their EqR Pythag (basically, instead of counting runs, we count how many runs they SHOULD have scored, ignoring timely hitting, etc.). Six runs is a pretty substantial difference, but this is just quibbling. Your bet doesn't have much value because the Jays are such long shots that you aren't getting a good price even at +25000. Given that the most optimistic numbers we've seen have you at break-even, and the other set has you as a big loser, I think it's only safe to conclude you're more likely to be a loser here than a winner.

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

Baltimore to win the AFC North +805 (risking 2x)I've been mulling this play over for a while. Baltimore was pretty unlucky last year. They lost a ton of fumbles and had some injury problems in the defensive backfield. I think Cleveland is badly overrated, and the only difference between Baltimore and Pitt's schedule is:Pitt: New England and San DiegoBalty: Oakie and MiamiHmm. In terms of win expectancy, it's almost like Balty starts with a full-game head-start or something. I'll take 8-1 on those odds. Go Balty.

Kyle Boller.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Kyle Boller.

I'm well aware. They are the best team in that conference though in terms of total talent. Put Pitt and Balty on a neutral field two months from now, I think Balty would be a favorite (or at least a pick'em).

[Tactical Bear 3]

Solid baseball card today:Royals +160 (1) Standard fade of Kenny Rogers, with the added bonus of getting to back Brandon Duckworth (with a name like that, how can I not like him) making his first start of the year.Cubs/Nats under 7.5 (1) Cubs are going to score at least 8 against Bergmann. No choice here, though. Pirates + 308 (1) CC Sabathia is pitching and hitting in every lineup spot tonight. Pirates are in trouble.Diamondbacks -115 (1) BlarghTwins +154 (1) Angels suck, blah blah blah. Jays +128 (1) Just a Matsuzaka fade. I hate that guy. Burnett has outpitched his 4.51 ERA by almost a full run, whereas Matsuzaka has been almost a run-and-a-half WORSE than his ERA suggest. Give me Burnett any day. Apart fromt his, I have a few big golf sweats, but after last Sunday I don't have the energy to watch.