powerpoker 0 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 I will be here quite frequently once football starts back up again Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 7, 2008 Author Share Posted July 7, 2008 I will be here quite frequently once football starts back up againGood. I am more excited for college football than I can express.Monday afternoon bases:Royals +183 Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Good. I am more excited for college football than I can express.Monday afternoon bases:Royals +183Wang,I have been saying for a while now to friends that college football is the best sport to bet on. I tell them that there are so many damn teams that there is no way Vegas can accurate handicap all of them all the time......there are always going to be a few teams that get slept on for a month each year (or teams that are overrated for a month).Thoughts? Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Good. I am more excited for college football than I can express.Monday afternoon bases:Royals +183Wang,I have been saying for a while now to friends that college football is the best sport to bet on. I tell them that there are so many damn teams that there is no way Vegas can accurately handicap all of them all the time......there are always going to be a few teams that get slept on for a month each year (or teams that are overrated for a month).Thoughts? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Wang,I have been saying for a while now to friends that college football is the best sport to bet on. I tell them that there are so many damn teams that there is no way Vegas can accurately handicap all of them all the time......there are always going to be a few teams that get slept on for a month each year (or teams that are overrated for a month).Thoughts?I'd say your approach needs revision. I agree that there are lots of profitable opportunities in college football, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the book "not getting around" to properly evaluating the teams. Those teams that are underrated or overrated are, more than likely, perfectly evaluated by the books. The books won't "sleep on" a particular team, and there is no way you -- even if you watch a lot of football and do a lot of research -- can out-cap the books. Yet there are still some very, very profitable opportunities, which arise when the PUBLIC overrates or underrates a team, and Vegas capitalizes on those misconceptions. If the public LOVES team A but HATES team B, and they are evenly matched, playing at a neutral site, the book is going to install team A as favorites, take LOTS of action on Team A, and have an overlay because team B will cover more than half the time. You can't beat the book, Cane, but you can definitely take advantage of the public by fading super-public squads and aligning yourself with the books.Wang Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Craptastic card. I'm looking Giants, Rockies, Redlegs. Maybe a play on Texas (kid making his first start against the Angels [who suck, by the way]). Might take a little poke with Los Braves on the road.Should get picks up later. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Craptastic card. I'm looking Giants, Rockies, Redlegs. Maybe a play on Texas (kid making his first start against the Angels [who suck, by the way]). Might take a little poke with Los Braves on the road.Should get picks up later.appreciated your insight earlier.by the by, Nolasco threw another gem last night. Link to post Share on other sites
PMJackson21 0 Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Craptastic card. I'm looking Giants, Rockies, Redlegs. Maybe a play on Texas (kid making his first start against the Angels [who suck, by the way]). Might take a little poke with Los Braves on the road.Should get picks up later.Betting against your boy Chad Billingsley at home? You are a true contrarian. Link to post Share on other sites
CBass1724 1 Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Aren't the Dodgers due to let up 34 hits tonight? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Betting against your boy Chad Billingsley at home? You are a true contrarian. I looked at the game, but that ended up being my easiest pass. I want to play the Braves on the road but not against C-Note. I ended up agonizing, and taking Texas (winner), Cincy (easy loser, fucking Harang), and decided to lay the chalk with the Padres (in progress, but sure to lose). At this point, I'll take 1-2 Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 It appears I should've taken that poke with ATL... My passes are a gut-wrenching 3-0 today Link to post Share on other sites
PMJackson21 0 Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 It appears I should've taken that poke with ATL... My passes are a gut-wrenching 3-0 todayHeh yeah I was wondering if you did. He looked real good through 4 then had control issues in the 5th and 6th, walked a bunch of guys, and then gave up big hits. Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 He looked real good through 4 then had control issues in the 5th and 6th, walked a bunch of guys, and then gave up big hits.Seems to happen quite a bit with him. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 I must really love laying chalk with the Padres, because I'm doing it again.Padres -105 I like the Red Sox today (yes, the Red Sox -230) a lot, but there's no way I'm going to get on that pain-train. Boston's a legit play, though. Minnesota is getting waaaay too much love, and the books aren't fucking around. "Here. Go ahead. You can have Minny +220. Load up, faggots, and we'll see you on the other side."I see other potential plays on:KC even moneyCleveland +143Texas +127Toronto -150 (ultra borderline)Cincy +165And I am probably going to take a shot with San Fran Sanchez vs. Santana, +191 Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Can we get your up to date results maybe at the bottom of your picks everyday? Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Can we get your up to date results maybe at the bottom of your picks everyday?The problem with that kind of record keeping is this:If I come in here at 3PM and post my plays, it would look something like this:SF +108Minny -123CLE +130etc.But what I decide I'm going to play in the middle of the afternoon, I don't lock in until about half-an-hour before gametime. So while you guys see +108, -123, and +130, what I'm getting is something like:SF +113Minny -119CLE +135This is especially true because I play a lot of anti-public sides. MY records -- as in, the number of units I have won/lost betting on bases during the year -- will not correspond to the records of my posted plays (since post odds and play odds tend to vary greatly). If I were a tout or some shit, I'd give a ****, or make an effort to post plays only when I find good numbers. But I'm not, and I don't really give a shit, so I'm unwilling to give the effort.That being said, I will keep track of my record starting today, since if I fancy myself a sports-betting resource, I should be able to prove it. RECORD TRACKER:0-0 +0.00 units Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Fair enough.Oh wait, that post took a turn I didn't see coming. You're doing it. Nice. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 For the purposes of clarity and... well, mostly because it's embarrassing, I'm not going to be tracking my golf outrights, golf matchups, golf top5s, tennis futures, or Olympics bets. I will keep everyone apprised of my action, but I probably won't be tracking it. My golf stuff is usually in fractions of a unit, and I don't want to look at the red numbers.For the Scottish Open I have Henrik Stenson (25-1) and Soren Hansen (28-1) as my outrights. For the PGA event, I have John Merrick to finish top 10 (6-1) an Charl Schwartzel to finish top 10 (12-1). I have a Henrik Stenson boner the size of Georgia, so get used to seeing that name. I played John Merrick because he is actually this guy, and Charl Schwartzel because he is this guy. Beware if you blindly tail me. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 EDIT- Charl Schwartzel is playing the Scottish Open, Merick the John Deere.I don't think that was clear. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 14-5 is the current score in Boston. I don't know why I have such an extreme aversion to playing heavy favorites. I know the math doesn't change or anything, and an edge is still an edge, but it feels so... square. Even when it probably isn't. I mean, I'm a contrarian for ****'s sake; I get off on discomfort. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Matchbook is down, so it looks like I'm going to have to pay real juice. Ugh. Current leans, in order of preference:Cleveland, Colorado, KC, Washington, San Fran, Texas. Already turned off the marlins/pads game. Wang Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Matchbook is down, so it looks like I'm going to have to pay real juice. Ugh. Current leans, in order of preference:Cleveland, Colorado, KC, Washington, San Fran, Texas. Already turned off the marlins/pads game. WangPhear the Phish. GL. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Matchbook is down, so it looks like I'm going to have to pay real juice. Ugh. Current leans, in order of preference:Cleveland, Colorado, KC, Washington, San Fran, Texas. Already turned off the marlins/pads game. WangHoopsie. That last game is going to be a pass for sure. The game is off the board most places, and apparently will stay that way, since Texas is yanking their starter, and instead just throwing their entire bullpen at the Angels tonight. Too bad. I hate the Angels.Wang Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Aaaaand I'm down. On the followingCleveland +148 (Byrd) at Detroit (Bonine)A Bonine fade. That guy sucks. Still rooting for the Tigers, though.Chicago (Vazquez) at KC +114 (Bannister)I don't like Bannister all that much. I like Vazquez. I don't like this play at all.San Fran (Sanchez) +200 at NY Mets (Santana)Okay, Sanchez is really good, and Santana shouldn't be commanding this price against ANYONE. Wait a second, there's something fishy going on here. I might buy out of this one if I can do so cheaply. That number seems too big...Arizona (Owings) at Washington (Lannan) +113I ONLY GET TO BET ON WASHINGTON AND I HATE IT.Colorado + 225 (Rusch) at Milwaukee (Sheets)Hopefully Sheets gets a blister. All bets are risking 1x.GoodluckWang Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted July 10, 2008 Author Share Posted July 10, 2008 I took this screen-capture a while back while sweating a Dodgers bet. I thought I would share Link to post Share on other sites
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