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I need a place to come and bitch and moan about my sports bets. This will be that place. Nobody around here bets sports, I don't think, but (shrug) who knows.Right now it's basically just bases, EuroCup, and my purely-action golf/tennis wagers.I have a few requests:1) Do not jinx my fucking action. If something good happens, don't say "nice bet!" or "good win!" until the gun goes off. I am dead serious about this.Actually it was just the one. If anybody has any questions -- about a particular wager or sports-betting in general -- feel free to ask. A summary of my current action:Saturday Bases:Houston +138 (1x)Colorado +162 (1x)Dodgers -121 (to win 1x)I'll probably be adding more games later. I'm leaning SF, MIL, CINCY, PIT, PHILATennis:Federer to NOT win Wimbledon -122 (to win 2x)That Houston game is going to be hilarious. Brandon Backe's going to get lit the fuck up. And Federer is going to roll, obviously. I should be laying that kinda chalk that he LOSES A SET from here on out. Haha, notice that all of my plays/leans are NL teams. I'm a genius.Good luck to everyone.

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My advice for the next few days while it still applies...bet more AL, unless you hate money. It looks like all your bets or possible bets are all on NL teams, while the AL has been kicking the ever loving shit out of the NL in inter-league play. GL. Also, still awaiting your reply in the NBA draft thread......

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My advice for the next few days while it still applies...bet more AL. It looks like all your bets or possible bets are all on NL teams, while the AL has been kicking the ever loving shit out of the NL in inter-league play. GL. Also, still awaiting your reply in the NBA draft thread......
A brief, Socratic exercise:Why do you know the AL has been dominating the NL? Because you dug and found this information yourself? Or because EVERYONE is talking about it? Because it's on every radio broadcast and Sportscenter?What is the average, casual gambler likely to do with the AL's recent domination of the NL? What are the Sports Books going to do with the lines, given the public's perception of the strength of the AL and NL? So, given the current landscape, which league do you think will have more value?As far as your NBA ROY/bad-team correlation, are you sure you're not just seeing a correlation between LOTTERY TEAMS and bad records? The worse a team is one year, the higher they pick in the draft. The worse a team is one year, the worse said team will be next year. Good teams don't produce ROY candidates very often, this is true, but it's NOT because "good teams means fewer shots for young players."It would look something more like this:1) Good teams rarely get high draft picks, meaning they don't get lottery talent in the draft.2) Good teams often draft for need, or draft longer-term projects, instead of drafting the best-available player3) Good teams often don't have space in the rotation for young playersBad teams produce ROY candidates NOT because they are bad THIS YEAR, but because they were bad LAST YEARWang
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A brief, Socratic exercise:Why do you know the AL has been dominating the NL? Because you dug and found this information yourself? Or because EVERYONE is talking about it? Because it's on every radio broadcast and Sportscenter?What is the average, casual gambler likely to do with the AL's recent domination of the NL? What are the Sports Books going to do with the lines, given the public's perception of the strength of the AL and NL? So, given the current landscape, which league do you think will have more value?
Obv. if the line is too good to pass up, then the value is in the underdog...but in my sportsbetting experiences (which I haven't done in a little while), betting on baseball is more about taking the matchups than going off of the price, since it's usually much closer to even on the games than other sports.
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Obv. if the line is too good to pass up, then the value is in the underdog...but in my sportsbetting experiences (which I haven't done in a little while), betting on baseball is more about taking the matchups than going off of the price, since it's usually much closer to even on the games than other sports.
What? In all sports, your only goal is to find value. Matchups play some part, but do you really think you are going to out handicap the fucking sportsbooks? It's not like they're totally unaware that the AL has been smashing the NL recently. The books are not in the habit of just giving money away...
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What? In all sports, your only goal is to find value. Matchups play some part, but do you really think you are going to out handicap the fucking sportsbooks? It's not like they're totally unaware that the AL has been smashing the NL recently. The books are not in the habit of just giving money away...
Ugh...I give up with you. You seem to be good at taking something I say, picking out one part of it, totally ignoring the rest, and posting one of these replies. Good day.
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Ugh...I give up with you. You seem to be good at taking something I say, picking out one part of it, totally ignoring the rest, and posting one of these replies. Good day.
Well, it sounds to me like you're saying there's more value in AL teams, because they've been winning vs. the NL recently. Is that a mischaracterization?
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Sassy federer bet.... thoughts behind it? I mean, he's won the last five, so I can't imagine there's much value betting on him, however after winning the last five, I'd think I'd need a better price than that to bet against him, seems like a stay away to me, but what do I know

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Sassy federer bet.... thoughts behind it? I mean, he's won the last five, so I can't imagine there's much value betting on him, however after winning the last five, I'd think I'd need a better price than that to bet against him, seems like a stay away to me, but what do I know
It was purely an action bet, but I think there's more likely to be an overlay betting him to lose at -122 than to win at +121. I mean, one side or the other HAS to have value unless the line is within a few cents of perfect (in which case my -EV is worth the action sweat I get).My thoughts when I placed the bet were:The books have priced Federer lately as if he's not the player he was 2 years ago.The books are more likely to grossly overprice the favorite than vice/versa. It's not like the books are EVER going to offer an overlay on Federer, Woods, or anybody like that, since they're going to get so much action...It would have caused me severe mental anguish -- above and beyond the pain I get from an average retarded guaranteed losing wager -- to take Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Roddick, etc. The only guy I considered playing was Andy Murray, and I couldn't find him at the price I wanted. Wang
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I got $500 on Miami Heat to get back to the playoffs next season.getting 2.2-1 odds.
I would be very concerned that the Heat blow things up, and trade Marion for (garbage). If they can run Wade, Marion, Beasley, Chalmers, J.Williams, Ricky Davis, Udonis Haslem, etc., out there on a nightly basis, they could win 41 games, maybe. If they can stay healthy, they'll be fine.Big "if" though, perhaps.Wang
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Good bets, Wang-bo. There's so much equity there that God himself couldn't cost you. Look at that fag, looking down in envy of all that value. GO BACK TO YOUR HOLE, HOMO! WANG'S A LOCK! YOU'RE NOT STOPPING THIS SHIT!

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I want nothing more than to find a play in the Copa Europa Finale, but I think the only possible angle is Germany (without Ballack), and I hate this German squad with a hideous passion. So, unless I'm running really bad around 230EST, I'll be passing this.For bases:Cincy +149 (1x) [There is no way Laffey and the Indians should be laying this much chalk to anybody; Bronson Arroyo's BIPA should feel free to regress to the mean aaaaany time now]San Fran +136 (1x) When Cincy's down 5-1 around 2:15EST, I'll consider chasing with:Los Angeles (N) +124I also lean Gorzelanny/Shitsburgh +108, but I've dropped at least 6 units bombing El Gorzo, and Andy Sonnanstine might be undervalued for Tampa, so I'll likely pass.I lean KC -111, but I hate Brian Bannister. As a side-note, did anybody see the NL's record yesterday? Good call, Freak16820-3 feels about right, today.Wang

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Luckily I couldn't get that Dodgers bet in. 2-0.Early leans for tomorrow:Washington at FloridaOAK at LA AngelsSan Diego at the RockiesKC at BaltyMets at Cardinals (There's a zero percent chance I'll ever bet this, even if it ends up being a perfectly fine contrarian position.)Tamba Bay laying LOTS of chalk at home vs. the Sox (I'm excited about this one already. Hopefully the Sox keep getting drilled and the books move the line the opposite way. Reverse line-movement means this'll be a double.)Milwaukee at the D'bagsI'll look at the pitching matchups, do some more "research" and try to get this trimmed to a 3 games or so. Part of my "trim the fat" initiative (which may go by the wayside, now that Copa Europa is el fin).Wang

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Plays for MondizzleCleveland (Sowers) at Chicago (A) (Floyd) Money Line Cleveland +140 (1x)Kansas City (Greinke) at Baltimore (Burres) Money Line Kansas City -105 (to win 1x)Los Angeles (N) (Stults) at Houston (Oswalt) Money Line Houston -146 (to win 1x)An atypical day on the bases for the WangMan. I'm playing two favorites, and I'm backing a very chalky ace at home against an offense that's been inept the past few games.ALSO ON TAPRed Sox (Masterson) at Tampa Bay (Shields) -141 Yay! More #1 starters and home chalk! I am going to kill myself!Oakland (Smith) +128 at Los Angeles (A) (Garland) That feels better. Backing an anonymously solid starter for an underrated team and fading John Garland and the retardedly lucky Angels. Also, when I'm bored, instead of forcing action and playing more games, I pick a few totals and play each of them for 1/4x each, just to give myself a sweat. I'm sure they're neutral EV at best, but it's better than trying to force a play on the nationally televised Mets/Cardinals game. "Making bad bets... to SAVE money. Okay."Wang

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I would be very concerned that the Heat blow things up, and trade Marion for (garbage). If they can run Wade, Marion, Beasley, Chalmers, J.Williams, Ricky Davis, Udonis Haslem, etc., out there on a nightly basis, they could win 41 games, maybe. If they can stay healthy, they'll be fine.Big "if" though, perhaps.Wang
First off, if they want to win more games, they should never ever play Ricky Davis. They dont call him the Ebola virus for nothing. Honestly they should bar him from the arena and fumigate his locker then burn it. you think I am kidding too. I'm not. Watching him for a season (i saw about 20 games live idk why) made me somewhat insane.secondly, its the Eastern Conference......I dont need them to win 41 games necessarily to make the playoffs.My guess is they win 38 and are the 7 seed. That is gross just to type.edit: I also have 100 bucks at 2-1 odds that the Miami Hurricanes win 8 games.
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First off, if they want to win more games, they should never ever play Ricky Davis. They dont call him the Ebola virus for nothing. Honestly they should bar him from the arena and fumigate his locker then burn it. you think I am kidding too. I'm not.secondly, its the Eastern Conference......I dont need them to win 41 games necessarily to make the playoffs.My guess is they win 38 and are the 7 seed. That is gross just to type.
I think the East is getting a little better near the bottom, but I still agree with your assessment. The Heat's chances this year really depend on what the front office decides. Can they win an NBA championship with a core of Beasley, Wade, Marion? If not, who gets moved, and for whom? I still think there's a chance they blow it up, and look to 2010/2011, especially if they like Chalmers/Beasley as much as I think they will.That being said, they might run a solid group out there for 50 or so games before realizing they're not going to really contend, which means Wade/Marion and co. will lock in 40 wins and a playoff spot. My gut says "good bet," but I haven't spent more than 3 minutes thinking about it. If you see NBA over/under totals for wins, you might be able to get a good hedge spot if the Heat open high enough.Wang
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edit: I also have 100 bucks at 2-1 odds that the Miami Hurricanes win 8 games.
Top of my head, they have, what, 12 starters back? They should have something like 18 seniors (many VHT recruits) in the 2-deep. They've got some tough games on the schedule, including at Florida, and a 3-game stretch where they play NC, FSU, and UCF at home. If they want 8 non-bowl wins, they'll have to win 6 of these 9 games:at Texas AMNCFSUUCFWake Forestat UVAVa Techat Ga Techat NC StateI hope I didn't jinx you by locking in losses to FL, and assuming wins vs. Charleston Southern and Duke.The big games, I think, are going to be FSU, UCF, and Wake at home in consecutive weeks starting in late September. If they can get 2 of those three, I think you're in good shape. But if they lose 2/3, you'll have work to do. Luckily Miami misses Clemson, and plays Va Tech, FSU, and NC at home this year. HUGE scheduling advantage for you.If they get blown out by NC at home, watch out.Wang
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Top of my head, they have, what, 12 starters back? They should have something like 18 seniors (many VHT recruits) in the 2-deep. They've got some tough games on the schedule, including at Florida, and a 3-game stretch where they play NC, FSU, and UCF at home. If they want 8 non-bowl wins, they'll have to win 6 of these 9 games:at Texas AMNCFSUUCFWake Forestat UVAVa Techat Ga Techat NC StateI hope I didn't jinx you by locking in losses to FL, and assuming wins vs. Charleston Southern and Duke.The big games, I think, are going to be FSU, UCF, and Wake at home in consecutive weeks starting in late September. If they can get 2 of those three, I think you're in good shape. But if they lose 2/3, you'll have work to do. Luckily Miami misses Clemson, and plays Va Tech, FSU, and NC at home this year. HUGE scheduling advantage for you.If they get blown out by NC at home, watch out.Wang
I admit I like my Heat bet better than this one. I worry they are a year away from turning it around. The schedule is favorable and I am getting odds so that made me take the bet.
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4-1 yesterday, +3.28 units. My big passes (Texas, Washington, San Diego) were 2-1, but I'm okay because the San Diego/Colorado game would have put me through the wringer.I'm going to be fading the Angels almost for sure again tonight with the A's. Apart from that I lean Royals, Rays, Indians, Padres, and the Giants. I'm also considering torturing myself with a legit totals play in the Astros/Dodgers game. OVER 8.5. I can't imagine these teams could score that many runs in 20 innings, so obviously I'll be playing it.Wang

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Okay, I'm on the Astros/Dodgers OVER 8.5. Playing totals makes me feel sick, but I couldn't pass up the chance to fade the second comings of Bert Blyleven and Pedro Martinez. (1 unit)Washington + 135 (1 unit)Giants -115 (to win 1 unit)I was going to play KC against the Orioles, but -- try as I might -- I can't bring myself to bet against Radhames Liz after he's been so good to me. Pass KC.That number makes no sense on the Texas/Yankees game. Should Joba be -197 vs ANYONE? Least of all the best hitting line-up in baseball? I'm tempted to take Texas at the big number, which is a sure-fire sign I should be staying away. Somehow, the contrarian in me sees value in the Yankees. I am confused. Pass Texas. I'm passing Poopburgh, Oakie, and Cleveland, too. What a craptastic card.

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Okay, I'm on the Astros/Dodgers OVER 8.5. Playing totals makes me feel sick, but I couldn't pass up the chance to fade the second comings of Bert Blyleven and Pedro Martinez. (1 unit)Washington + 135 (1 unit)Giants -115 (to win 1 unit)I was going to play KC against the Orioles, but -- try as I might -- I can't bring myself to bet against Radhames Liz after he's been so good to me. Pass KC.That number makes no sense on the Texas/Yankees game. Should Joba be -197 vs ANYONE? Least of all the best hitting line-up in baseball? I'm tempted to take Texas at the big number, which is a sure-fire sign I should be staying away. Somehow, the contrarian in me sees value in the Yankees. I am confused. Pass Texas. I'm passing Poopburgh, Oakie, and Cleveland, too. What a craptastic card.
why do you keep betting on the Nationals against the Marlins? dont you know FL owns them? And Washington is starting a triple A pitcher tonight too (though the fish are starting Hendrickson....lets call that a wash).not trying to berate you.....I actually want to hear your thoughts on why. I bet on sports in a very casual manner....and I do pretty well. (I heart the NY Giants. I made so much on them during the last playoffs.) But I want to learn more about sports betting. I liked your idea about hedging on the Heat. I need to take this more seriously if I am going to spare poker funds on it.
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