dapokerbum 0 Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 So a friend of mine was telling me that he has this feeling that Ernie will win the US Open. I told him NO WAY will he win since he is going through a swing change and that has been affecting his play this year and that it will probably come along next year.So I told him that if he gave me 3 - 1 odds I would bet $20 that he wouldn't even make the cut.Is that enough odds or did I get hustled? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 So a friend of mine was telling me that he has this feeling that Ernie will win the US Open. I told him NO WAY will he win since he is going through a swing change and that has been affecting his play this year and that it will probably come along next year.So I told him that if he gave me 3 - 1 odds I would bet $20 that he wouldn't even make the cut.Is that enough odds or did I get hustled?I think those are terrible odds. Els is a world class player, top ten.. and even if he's going through a swing change, missing the cut is unlikely. In majors, he's only missed the cut 4 times since 1995 (granted 2 of those times have been at that Masters i nthe last 2 years) and he has never missed a cut at the US Open. Maybe you know more about his current game, with the swing change, than I do, but I think that him missing the cut is going to happen way less than 25% of the time. I could be wrong. What you should have done instead, I think is slow played the fact that you knew about his swing change, and given him something like 8-1 on els winning, as that would be a really bad bet for your friend. Link to post Share on other sites
dapokerbum 0 Posted June 4, 2008 Author Share Posted June 4, 2008 I think those are terrible odds. Els is a world class player, top ten.. and even if he's going through a swing change, missing the cut is unlikely. In majors, he's only missed the cut 4 times since 1995 (granted 2 of those times have been at that Masters i nthe last 2 years) and he has never missed a cut at the US Open. Maybe you know more about his current game, with the swing change, than I do, but I think that him missing the cut is going to happen way less than 25% of the time. I could be wrong. What you should have done instead, I think is slow played the fact that you knew about his swing change, and given him something like 8-1 on els winning, as that would be a really bad bet for your friend. And this is why I am NOT a professional gambler! He has missed 5 of his last 7 starts, so I think it is very probable. He will get killed by Torrey if he can't keep the ball in the fairway. Link to post Share on other sites
freak2304 0 Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 Personally, I'd need 8-1 or better to take the miss the cut bet. I agree that you should've given him really good odds on Els to win instead, though. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted June 5, 2008 Share Posted June 5, 2008 And this is why I am NOT a professional gambler! He has missed 5 of his last 7 starts, so I think it is very probable. He will get killed by Torrey if he can't keep the ball in the fairway.i'm sure if your buddy loves Els so much that he thinks he's going to win, that you could have got a better price than 3-1 to miss the cut, is my point. Never fast play knowledge like you know someone's going through a swing change.. even if you think he's about 2-1 or 1.5-1 to miss the cut, what matters here is what your friend thinks, and since he thinks Els is going to win, he would have thought the idea that Els missed the cut to be outlandish, and probably would have given you something like 10-1 or better. Just saying. Link to post Share on other sites
dapokerbum 0 Posted June 5, 2008 Author Share Posted June 5, 2008 i'm sure if your buddy loves Els so much that he thinks he's going to win, that you could have got a better price than 3-1 to miss the cut, is my point. Never fast play knowledge like you know someone's going through a swing change.. even if you think he's about 2-1 or 1.5-1 to miss the cut, what matters here is what your friend thinks, and since he thinks Els is going to win, he would have thought the idea that Els missed the cut to be outlandish, and probably would have given you something like 10-1 or better. Just saying.This is all very true. I guess that's why prop bets are so dependent on the odds. I guess next time i do a prop bet i should try to take as much as I can get. i just threw out a random number thinking that if he missed it then cool I get $60 bucks. If not then I lose the $20 bucks I was going to bet anyway. Apparently that is not a good way to look at prop bets Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted June 5, 2008 Share Posted June 5, 2008 This is all very true. I guess that's why prop bets are so dependent on the odds. I guess next time i do a prop bet i should try to take as much as I can get. i just threw out a random number thinking that if he missed it then cool I get $60 bucks. If not then I lose the $20 bucks I was going to bet anyway. Apparently that is not a good way to look at prop bets yeah, totally.. I mean, if Els' real odds are 2-1, then you made a nice bet, got nice vaule... but if you could have gotten 10-1 on the bet, then you made a horrible bet, 'cause you left all that value on the table if you win. prop bets take a little while to get used to, and require a ruthlessness Link to post Share on other sites
dapokerbum 0 Posted June 12, 2008 Author Share Posted June 12, 2008 http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/us-open/to-miss-the-cutDid a check to see what kind of odds were being given. Looks like it is 2 - 1We'll see what happens come friday. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafs 142 Posted June 14, 2008 Share Posted June 14, 2008 I guess you forgot that it was Ernie Fucking Els.I used a 1st rounder on him in a pool for this week. Friday's come and gone. We'll see what happens come Sunday. Link to post Share on other sites
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