Off Broadway (fr) (5/10)

[CobaltBlue 662]

Bodog 5/10 NLHE (8-handed)Cobalt ~$1.2kMP ~$1.4kCobalt is BB w/ . Been playing TAG. MP isn't too notable. Played with him before, so we're somewhat familiar. I know that I'm better than he is, but he's decent.Pre-flop:3 folds, MP calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Cobalt checksFlop ($30): (3 players)SB checks, Cobalt bets $20, MP calls, SB foldsTurn ($70): (2 players)Cobalt bets $45, MP callsRiver ($160): (2 players)Cobalt bets $90, MP raises to $225, Cobalt ?

[tskillz187 0]

Getting more than 2.5:1 on the call and he's representing a ridiculously small range here. You have the Kc so that's hurting his flush range here. I think he might think he's value betting something like 10J or this is just a flat out bluff.

[Dictius 0]

Does the villain have a history of value betting thin? If not, I doubt villain would value bet a T here. The board is pretty scary and he can't expect to get paid by an Ace. Does the villain ever bluff raise the river?If you've seen him bluff raise a few times before then I'd be inclined to call.He is really representing the flush here, so you could probably shove and get him to fold since you know he can't have the nut flush and he has to be somewhat scared of a full house.

[NoBBiR 0]

Does the villain have a history of value betting thin? If not, I doubt villain would value bet a T here. The board is pretty scary and he can't expect to get paid by an Ace. Does the villain ever bluff raise the river?If you've seen him bluff raise a few times before then I'd be inclined to call.He is really representing the flush here, so you could probably shove and get him to fold since you know he can't have the nut flush and he has to be somewhat scared of a full house.

I like you.

[Temporary Nuts 1]

I'd only call villain here if I could call him with A-K, since it's essentially the same hand, and bluffraising the flopped nuts seems kind of... well... stupid.I think this is a sad fold, and curse the temporary nuts into the grave

[Metternich 0]

don't think I'm ever folding here, and there's no way I'm shoving because your lack of a PFR eliminates a FH from your range. So that leaves call.

[Dictius 0]

don't think I'm ever folding here, and there's no way I'm shoving because your lack of a PFR eliminates a FH from your range. So that leaves call.

Cobalt could easily have QT or T3 here. If he doesn't raise KJ preflop he isn't raising QT and possibly not raising AT either. The nut KcXc flush is definitely in Cobalt's range though.I think the river is a bet/fold situation generally.If there was evidence of the villain bluffraising the river on a scare card or value betting thinly with something like AQ or a lone T then I just call.If there was evidence that the villain was often capable of or was even proud of making big laydowns eg folding a non-nut flush, then I would consider shoving (but probably not actually have the balls to do it). Probably need a pretty strong read to make this play though.

[MikeBauer26 0]

Disclaimer: the authour of this reply is playing for 1% of the above stakes and is currently on a rush of making awesome good calls. You might want to discount that. Cobalt's bets look kinda indecisive and villain might be picking up on that and repping a flush that he drew "for cheap".So if he is repping a flush as Dictius suggest, what good can come from raising him?Villain will fold his bluffs and perhaps his flushes a decent amount of the time.Villain will call with all of his full-houses.From villains perspective Cobalt's Full House hands would have either raised preflop or fired harder at the flop and he has to put Cobalt almost exactly on QT to fold his flush to a raise. That said, yeah, it's a bluff catcher basically. But I call.

[shinzilla 0]

Shoving is terrible, as I doubt we'd ever get a worse hand to call. His line screams flush to me, but getting the pot odds that we are, I think a call is +EV. I think the probability of villain having a FH is very low, as a set or two pair would have raised the flop for value/protection against the flush draw. He could be playing trips he picked up on the turn very weird and we might be chopping for the straight, so call. Also, the statement that AK and KJ are essentially the same hand here is wrong, as KJ beats the trip 10's that villain can be turning into bluffs.

[LJB723 0]

I call, the only club combo I see him having is QcJc, maybe Qc9c, from his early position limp. But I would expect a pair/fd to raise that flop to get the money in. I doubt he is raising the river with a smaller flush than Q-high. I he has a FH, well done to him. No-one ever has a hand when I have one!

[simo_8ball 0]

Shoving is terrible, as I doubt we'd ever get a worse hand to call.

Unless villain has a history of open limping, I think AT and TT+ are out of his range, and QT is somewhat unlikely too. He would usually raise with two pair plus on the flop, so that weights his range to flush draws even more.I really like shoving. I think his range consists of a lot of low flushes, and I think he would be making a huge mistake in calling without a full house. ESPECIALLY given you have the Kc, so he can't have the nut flush.What is your range here for betting the flop, betting the turn, and then bet/shoving the river? It cannot be a 3 street bluff because that would be crazy. It's very unlikely to be a low flush because you aren't value shoving the river.The only possible hands villain beats are made hands good enough to bet all three streets turned into bluffs on the river. By contrast this is exactly how you play QT, AT, and maybe the nut flush too.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Unless villain has a history of open limping, I think AT and TT+ are out of his range, and QT is somewhat unlikely too. He would usually raise with two pair plus on the flop, so that weights his range to flush draws even more.I really like shoving. I think his range consists of a lot of low flushes, and I think he would be making a huge mistake in calling without a full house. ESPECIALLY given you have the Kc, so he can't have the nut flush.What is your range here for betting the flop, betting the turn, and then bet/shoving the river? It cannot be a 3 street bluff because that would be crazy. It's very unlikely to be a low flush because you aren't value shoving the river.The only possible hands villain beats are made hands good enough to bet all three streets turned into bluffs on the river. By contrast this is exactly how you play QT, AT, and maybe the nut flush too.

I was literally going to type in the exact same thing that you wrote here. I think that his raise indicates that we're beaten, but his range of hands that he plays like this that beats us is ridiculously small. I would expect that he raises Qxcc or Jxcc (combo draws) on the flop most of the time. If he flopped 2 pair with QT or AT, he's probably raising that flop to protect his hand. If he turned trips, he's probably raising the turn too.His range is really heavily weighted towards flush draws with SCs like 89cc or lower. I think that some amount of the time he's also turning an Ax hand into a bluff figuring that he's no good with it, but that's a small % of the time.Basically, I think that he's got us beat enough that calling here isn't profitable, but if he knows how to find the fold button, I also LOVE shoving here because there are almost no hands in his range that should be able to call us. The caviat to us shoving is that he's gotta be able to find the fold button with a flush. If he can't fold, then I'd fold. Otherwise, I'd shove.

[Temporary Nuts 1]

The caviat to us shoving is that he's gotta be able to find the fold button with a flush. If he can't fold, then I'd fold. Otherwise, I'd shove.

People fold flushes?

[Acid_Knight 2]

People fold flushes?

On a paired board where a guy with the betting lead the whole hand bet/3bets the river and you can't really have better than like the 4th nut flush? Yeah, sometimes they do.

[shinzilla 0]

Unless villain has a history of open limping, I think AT and TT+ are out of his range, and QT is somewhat unlikely too. He would usually raise with two pair plus on the flop, so that weights his range to flush draws even more.I really like shoving. I think his range consists of a lot of low flushes, and I think he would be making a huge mistake in calling without a full house. ESPECIALLY given you have the Kc, so he can't have the nut flush.What is your range here for betting the flop, betting the turn, and then bet/shoving the river? It cannot be a 3 street bluff because that would be crazy. It's very unlikely to be a low flush because you aren't value shoving the river.The only possible hands villain beats are made hands good enough to bet all three streets turned into bluffs on the river. By contrast this is exactly how you play QT, AT, and maybe the nut flush too.

lol way too rub it in with the picture, but you're right. I hadn't thought about that line, as a b/3b bluff line on the river is one that I don't think I've ever incorporated into my game. But you're absolutely correct. Good analysis. Shows how much progress I need to make before I start playing Cobalt stakes.

[simo_8ball 0]

lol way too rub it in with the picture, but you're right.

Ya, I found the pic and just had to use it.FWIW, I don't think you need to use these plays to beat the games. This is an exceptional circumstance/opportunity.It is important not to unknowingly close off options though.

[CobaltBlue 662]

I think you guys mostly keyed in on it. It's a very rare spot, but just because it's rare doesn't excuse you from making the correct decision. The correct answers are that we need to fold or shove. He's almost never raising with a worse hand, so we either need to go ahead and concede, or we need to pull the superstar move and shove (because he can't have the nut flush and he's rarely rarely got a full house). If he has a flush (as he probably does), I do think he's going to have to fold the river.To answer the earlier question, I don't think he'd raise trips or bluff-raise the river here very often at all.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I think you guys mostly keyed in on it. It's a very rare spot, but just because it's rare doesn't excuse you from making the correct decision. The correct answers are that we need to fold or shove. He's almost never raising with a worse hand, so we either need to go ahead and concede, or we need to pull the superstar move and shove (because he can't have the nut flush and he's rarely rarely got a full house). If he has a flush (as he probably does), I do think he's going to have to fold the river.To answer the earlier question, I don't think he'd raise trips or bluff-raise the river here very often at all.

Raising trips would be horrible. Bluff raising, not so much.So, you shove or fold?Oh, also, it's awesome when you shove her vs a player who doesn't know better and they snap call a 7 high flush and think "what a moron, who shoves a straight there when it's obvious I have a flush"

[simo_8ball 0]

Oh, also, it's awesome when you shove her vs a player who doesn't know better and they snap call a 7 high flush and think "what a moron, who shoves a straight there when it's obvious I have a flush"

QFT.

[SlapStick 0]

I don't play against anyone nearly good enough to make that play, never even entered my mind. Not that I'm complaining

[NoBBiR 0]

Raising trips would be horrible. Bluff raising, not so much.So, you shove or fold?Oh, also, it's awesome when you shove her vs a player who doesn't know better and they snap call a 7 high flush and think "what a moron, who shoves a straight there when it's obvious I have a flush"

That's why that move is so hot. If he is a standard station, he's just going to call and be like, "LOL I HAZ FLUSH, WHAT R U DOIN?" But if he can fold... It makes me wet in the pants to make the guy fold a medium flush here, so much that I want to get in a situation like this now just to see if I have the cajones to bet/shove this river.

[Dictius 0]

So did the villain fold or what?

[Webslinger516 0]

I'm very interested in the outcome of this hand. Even if he did end up calling, shoving is a really advanced play. I don't think I have the stones to make that move. Generally, I'd whine about suckouts and whatnots and fold.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Acid and Simo are right on the money, but I think I can write "Read dependent on whether he can fold a flush" about 1,000 more times and still contribute. I think asking him to fold the flush involves a read on villain's ability that has both a lower AND upper limit.Lower limit: Can he fold any flush here enough to make this play profitable?Upper limit: Even if (Cobalt) is better than villain, is villain advanced enough not to wet his pants when we shove and think things through?Reason I include the upper limit is because I think Cobalt's range is tight too. IMO, if we're the villain and know Cobalt as well as he knows us, our range for Cobalt includes Q10, A10, KJ, and about 30%/20%/50% spread respectively. Villain may also feel like the river was a good card to hit the river a little harder with a made boat since another draw got there. We need villain to fold about 3.4ish~ times for every one time we get called in order to make this profitable. That's a lot to ask from someone who we need to be good enough to fold a flush in general but not too good to look us up with it (because he put some thought on it) 1 out of every 4 times.

[CobaltBlue 662]

So, you shove or fold?

Obviously I went the dumb route...cried a bit and called. The more I thought about it, the more I absolutely hate it. I think there was some lingering feeling of "...but I flopped the nuts." To be honest, shoving would've been a lot easier mentally if I'd had something like KcQ. Oh, and for the record, I could easily have AT or QT here...probably not T3 as often, but it's possible. I do think villain might've been able to fold, but he actually had a much stronger hand than I would've figured. He showed up with .