Passing Up High Variance +ev Plays

[no not baxter 0]

I posted this in the T challenge thread but thought it would be good if a lot of people could see it.Okay, so this has been a rough subject for me throughout my poker career. What do you guys think about passing up on +ev spots for less marginal or for lower variance spots. Should we be taking every +ev spot we can get or should we be trying to lower the variance and not take some of the +ev spots because they are so high variance. Does it matter the stage in the tourney? If there are times where we should pass up on some ev, what type of dynamics are we looking for?

[TB17 0]

Will post this to start discussion since this is exactly what we were discussing saturday nightFrom villains perspective.PokerStars Game #17185864162: Tournament #86191283, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2008/05/03 - 23:29:50 (ET)Table '86191283 73' 9-max Seat #8 is the buttonSeat 1: Damauler12 (10515 in chips)Seat 2: 1Newbie (14130 in chips)Seat 3: patricia_81 (9420 in chips)Seat 4: yorgi73 (1624 in chips) is sitting outSeat 5: Jordan21703 (12070 in chips)Seat 6: streelhead1 (30059 in chips)Seat 7: BadBoyBilly5 (6635 in chips)Seat 8: nomorebeats (4505 in chips)Seat 9: GetGased (6614 in chips)Damauler12: posts the ante 251Newbie: posts the ante 25patricia_81: posts the ante 25yorgi73: posts the ante 25Jordan21703: posts the ante 25streelhead1: posts the ante 25BadBoyBilly5: posts the ante 25nomorebeats: posts the ante 25GetGased: posts the ante 25GetGased: posts small blind 150Damauler12: posts big blind 300*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Damauler12 [Jd Jc]1Newbie: raises 450 to 750patricia_81: foldsyorgi73: foldsJordan21703: foldsstreelhead1: calls 750BadBoyBilly5: calls 750nomorebeats: foldsGetGased: foldsDamauler12: raises 9740 to 10490 and is all-in1Newbie: raises 3615 to 14105 and is all-instreelhead1: foldsBadBoyBilly5: folds*** FLOP *** [6h 5d Ks]BadBoyBilly5 said, "10s"*** TURN *** [6h 5d Ks] [3c]*** RIVER *** [6h 5d Ks 3c] [Qh]Damauler12 said, "sigh"*** SHOW DOWN ***Damauler12: shows [Jd Jc] (a pair of Jacks)1Newbie: shows [Kh Ad] (a pair of Kings)1Newbie collected 22855 from potI think we can all agree that it's +ev for villain to ship it. But is it ok to risk 35 bb's and only be left with 10 when you're most likely behind.

[Poker Addict 0]

Early in MTT's I pass up on a lot of spots. Do you have any specific examples or situations that come to mind?EDIT: sure an example gets posted while I am posting.

[copernicus 0]

Imo, yes, pass on them if they are for your whole stack or a substantial portion of your stack, unless its early in the tourney and youre below average. Eg a 9 outer for your whole stack that is getting a little more than 2:1 is probably the right play in the first few levels and youre just holding your own or losing some.In later stages I think you avoid those situations and play more pot control, rather than getting it all in on a draw.

[no not baxter 0]

I will try to find the hand that triggered this discussion.

[Poker Addict 0]

On that specific example I ship or flat it. QQ+ I am absolutely shoving. But with two players the best I am hoping for is obviously them to fold or call with tens. The second best scenario is for them to call with two overs for a race. But I have been changing up my play on these to help reduce the variance on some races. Here you could definitely make a case for calling with what should be the best hand and re-evaluating on the flop.

[RDog 0]

Gambooooooooooooool

[onlyme386 0]

I don't mind passing a +ev spot if it means I'm calling off a lot of chips, like an LP shover on my BB. I think I fold a lot wider range here than a lot of good players because I just hate calling off ever. Let's say you have A4 to an LP shover with m=4 you think is shoving very wide. Our stack is currently in a good position, perfectly in the reshove zone with an m of 8. If we fold, we preserve this stack and will have plenty of good +ev situations in the future where we can make a lot of chips. If we call and win, our stack is m=12, which is a nice increase, but unless blinds are increasing soon where this would drop to m=9 it is not really a substantial increase. We are out of a comfortable reshove zone, and in a sort of awkward spot where we aren't big stacked either. If we call and lose, we are dropped to an m of 4, where we can't resteal effectively and will be looking for a spot to open shove with most likely marginal Cev.I like to think of this as secondary Cev, the effect of a play on our stack that will limit our ability to make plays in future hands.

[SilentButDeadly3 0]

I think it definitely matters at the stage of the tournament. I think most would agree that they would pass up a flip on the first hand of a tourney, where as if it was with 3 tables left to make you CL if you win, they probably wouldn't pass that up. It's all about risk/reward, what is the risk of x play and what is the reward of x play. I think most would agree the first hand there is little reward for the risk. Where as the second option, you're suddenly a massive favorite to Final Table and get a big score.

[silkyjonson 1]

I think some deciding factors should always be:1) your financial situation and bankroll2) the level of competitionif there are a couple really weak players at the table, why are we going to take a marginal situation when we are likely to have the weaker players make a big mistake down the road, if we take a close EV situation and lose we never get to that chance.3) your image, the more that FE factors in the less variance you will have obviously when restealing etc.4) your skill set, are you good deep when it gets shorthanded? can you play the short stack well? is having the big stack fit your game? who is on your left?For example if you are just building your bankroll and all of a sudden you find yourself deep in a major that you satty'd into I would think it would be better to pass up some high variance +ev spots for some more solid spots and to lock up a higher pay jump if possible. The reason I think this is the right move is that obviously its +ev to maximize your chances of winning and taking the top prize, but if you can give your bankroll a huge boost you will be able to give yourself way more chances to pick up ev down the road by having more buyins and being able to exploit more edges.I try to consider a lot of these factors and I think they should factor into your decisions when thinking about +ev situations especially marginal ones.

[no not baxter 0]

Full Tilt Poker Game #6292762084: The Sunday Mulligan (46345636), Table 89 - 3000/6000 Ante 750 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:22:10 ET - 2008/05/05Seat 1: colenel decker (154,608)Seat 4: DuckU (56,068)Seat 5: no not baxter (171,726)Seat 6: adammc (217,366)Seat 7: mx4ever (109,508)Seat 8: ckingusc (242,010)Seat 9: apestyles (78,224)colenel decker antes 750DuckU antes 750no not baxter antes 750adammc antes 750mx4ever antes 750ckingusc antes 750apestyles antes 750no not baxter posts the small blind of 3,000adammc posts the big blind of 6,000The button is in seat #4*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to no not baxter [8h Th]mx4ever foldsckingusc foldsapestyles foldscolenel decker foldsDuckU raises to 55,318, and is all inno not baxterAlright, so I think DuckU ( a very good player) is shoving a very wide range like any two cards. It is 52,318 to call into 69,568. So my pot odds are 1.32 to 1 (or I need 42.9% equity). Now, if you put in T8s versus a random hand in pokerstove your equity is 52.334% which is more than enough. Anyways, it comes out to where he needs to be shoving like 54% of hands for it to be a +ev call. I think he is shoving more than that, but whatever, lets not discuss this hand as much as lets discuss the whole hand on a broader level. I am risking 1/3 of my chips on ten high. Do I really want to make this high of a variance play?

[Vick12 0]

NNB,That's pretty much the basis of my argument in the Challenge thread. W/ the HH posted above, I think the UTG is getting odds to call my shovel there and it can be seen as a +ev play. I just think it's spewy and deciding to take a coinflip for 33+ BB's to me is suicidal. Some DISAGREED w/ me...and that's totally cool. They see calling w/ AK there "standard".PMJ...I see u....comments on my hand from a fellow TAG?

[Vick12 0]

I think some deciding factors should always be:1) your financial situation and bankroll

This should NEVER be in your decision process imho. Once you have bought in, the amount you have invested or could potentially win is IRRELEVENT to decision making.

[onlyme386 0]

Full Tilt Poker Game #6292762084: The Sunday Mulligan (46345636), Table 89 - 3000/6000 Ante 750 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:22:10 ET - 2008/05/05Seat 1: colenel decker (154,608)Seat 4: DuckU (56,068)Seat 5: no not baxter (171,726)Seat 6: adammc (217,366)Seat 7: mx4ever (109,508)Seat 8: ckingusc (242,010)Seat 9: apestyles (78,224)colenel decker antes 750DuckU antes 750no not baxter antes 750adammc antes 750mx4ever antes 750ckingusc antes 750apestyles antes 750no not baxter posts the small blind of 3,000adammc posts the big blind of 6,000The button is in seat #4*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to no not baxter [8h Th]mx4ever foldsckingusc foldsapestyles foldscolenel decker foldsDuckU raises to 55,318, and is all inno not baxterAlright, so I think DuckU ( a very good player) is shoving a very wide range like any two cards. It is 52,318 to call into 69,568. So my pot odds are 1.32 to 1 (or I need 42.9% equity). Now, if you put in T8s versus a random hand in pokerstove your equity is 52.334% which is more than enough. Anyways, it comes out to where he needs to be shoving like 54% of hands for it to be a +ev call. I think he is shoving more than that, but whatever, lets not discuss this hand as much as lets discuss the whole hand on a broader level. I am risking 1/3 of my chips on ten high. Do I really want to make this high of a variance play?

Yeah, I'm folding here all day. There was another hand we talked about a few weeks ago when you were at the FT of something on FTP (i think you got 2nd, it was during your sick week) that was a very similar situation. Find that HH too

[HighwayStar 8]

I probably muck the T8hh there.You know DuckU is good so why take a 50:50 shot to double him to a stack he can use, for a largish proportion of your chips. Can probably find a better spot where he does the same thing.The AK vs JJ coinflip relates to playing style I guess. I'd almost always take a flip for a huge stack in the middle stages of the tournaments. Yea you're safe with 30/40 BB's but having 80+ gives you so much play. I'm way better with a big stack than a middling stack.On the other end of the scale I'm ridiculously nitty with a supershort stack.This is in the middle stages of the tournament, after the antes kick in. Early on you can just about pass and late on it's probably still a call but generally I try to gamble less late on.

[silkyjonson 1]

This should NEVER be in your decision process imho. Once you have bought in, the amount you have invested or could potentially win is IRRELEVENT to decision making.

I completely disagree. If you are on a short bankroll I think you should maximize your chances of getting a deep score, whereas if my BR is really healthy I'm trying to maximize my chance of winning. Im not talking about folding Aces or AK or anything retarded like that I'm talking about a player who is good, knows where he has +ev (slight) edge infront of him but chooses to pass it up and wait for a better spot (for example in NNB's example a few hands above vs. Duck U) where he has some FE. Know if the player we are discussing is good enough to know +ev when he spots it giving his BR a big boost will allow for him down the road to continue to get into +ev situations by being able to play in more tournies = more profit in the long run.

[Vick12 0]

Full Tilt Poker Game #6292762084: The Sunday Mulligan (46345636), Table 89 - 3000/6000 Ante 750 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:22:10 ET - 2008/05/05Seat 1: colenel decker (154,608)Seat 4: DuckU (56,068)Seat 5: no not baxter (171,726)Seat 6: adammc (217,366)Seat 7: mx4ever (109,508)Seat 8: ckingusc (242,010)Seat 9: apestyles (78,224)colenel decker antes 750DuckU antes 750no not baxter antes 750adammc antes 750mx4ever antes 750ckingusc antes 750apestyles antes 750no not baxter posts the small blind of 3,000adammc posts the big blind of 6,000The button is in seat #4*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to no not baxter [8h Th]mx4ever foldsckingusc foldsapestyles foldscolenel decker foldsDuckU raises to 55,318, and is all inno not baxterAlright, so I think DuckU ( a very good player) is shoving a very wide range like any two cards. It is 52,318 to call into 69,568. So my pot odds are 1.32 to 1 (or I need 42.9% equity). Now, if you put in T8s versus a random hand in pokerstove your equity is 52.334% which is more than enough. Anyways, it comes out to where he needs to be shoving like 54% of hands for it to be a +ev call. I think he is shoving more than that, but whatever, lets not discuss this hand as much as lets discuss the whole hand on a broader level. I am risking 1/3 of my chips on ten high. Do I really want to make this high of a variance play?

NNB I am w/ you 100% here. DuckU is a solid player and the hand ranges you put him are pretty much ATC, which I agree 100% w/. However...U HAVE 10 HIGH!!!! I do realize this a +ev play from a pokertove standpoint, but calling here is just spewy to me. Maybe this is a HUGE leak in my game because I would fold almost 100% there and move on. I think we find much much better spots to get involved. Also, you have a great stack at this stage of the mtt. You are obv a contender to win the mtt and at this table you are a bigger stack. I know it's not 2003 and just running people over doesn't happen anymore, but isn't THIS where you want you skill to come out? I think we find better spots to steal blinds or resteal from stealers. Heck...we may even get a few hands down the stretch here!I say fold...and as a great player u find a better spot.

[onlyme386 0]

NNB I am w/ you 100% here. DuckU is a solid player and the hand ranges you put him are pretty much ATC, which I agree 100% w/. However...U HAVE 10 HIGH!!!! I do realize this a +ev play from a pokertove standpoint, but calling here is just spewy to me. Maybe this is a HUGE leak in my game because I would fold almost 100% there and move on. I think we find much much better spots to get involved. Also, you have a great stack at this stage of the mtt. You are obv a contender to win the mtt and at this table you are a bigger stack. I know it's not 2003 and just running people over doesn't happen anymore, but isn't THIS where you want you skill to come out? I think we find better spots to steal blinds or resteal from stealers. Heck...we may even get a few hands down the stretch here!I say fold...and as a great player u find a better spot.

Looking at the lineup of that table, I'm not sure NNB wants to bank on the skill coming out. There are some sick players sitting there. I have a ton of respect for nnb's game but he's not at the level of Duck, cking, ape yet

[outsider13 0]

NNB I am w/ you 100% here. DuckU is a solid player and the hand ranges you put him are pretty much ATC, which I agree 100% w/. However...U HAVE 10 HIGH!!!! I do realize this a +ev play from a pokertove standpoint, but calling here is just spewy to me. Maybe this is a HUGE leak in my game because I would fold almost 100% there and move on. I think we find much much better spots to get involved. Also, you have a great stack at this stage of the mtt. You are obv a contender to win the mtt and at this table you are a bigger stack. I know it's not 2003 and just running people over doesn't happen anymore, but isn't THIS where you want you skill to come out? I think we find better spots to steal blinds or resteal from stealers. Heck...we may even get a few hands down the stretch here!I say fold...and as a great player u find a better spot.

Agree 100%. I play T high 0% of the time in this situation. I can't even think of a time to call with T high ever other than to a shorty shove when I have them well covered. That's a good fold imo.1k posts....weeeee.

[HighwayStar 8]

This should NEVER be in your decision process imho. Once you have bought in, the amount you have invested or could potentially win is IRRELEVENT to decision making.

I disagree too, though I've been shouted down for saying it in the past.95% of the time BR shouldn't factor, but if I was on the Final few tables of the Million I'd find it hard to resteal with 45 suited even given the perfect spot to.

[outsider13 0]

Looking at the lineup of that table, I'm not sure NNB wants to bank on the skill coming out. There are some sick players sitting there. I have a ton of respect for nnb's game but he's not at the level of Duck, cking, ape yet

I think it's better to be the shover rather than the shovee though in this situation.

[silkyjonson 1]

Full Tilt Poker Game #6292762084: The Sunday Mulligan (46345636), Table 89 - 3000/6000 Ante 750 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:22:10 ET - 2008/05/05Seat 1: colenel decker (154,608)Seat 4: DuckU (56,068)Seat 5: no not baxter (171,726)Seat 6: adammc (217,366)Seat 7: mx4ever (109,508)Seat 8: ckingusc (242,010)Seat 9: apestyles (78,224)colenel decker antes 750DuckU antes 750no not baxter antes 750adammc antes 750mx4ever antes 750ckingusc antes 750apestyles antes 750no not baxter posts the small blind of 3,000adammc posts the big blind of 6,000The button is in seat #4*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to no not baxter [8h Th]mx4ever foldsckingusc foldsapestyles foldscolenel decker foldsDuckU raises to 55,318, and is all inno not baxterAlright, so I think DuckU ( a very good player) is shoving a very wide range like any two cards. It is 52,318 to call into 69,568. So my pot odds are 1.32 to 1 (or I need 42.9% equity). Now, if you put in T8s versus a random hand in pokerstove your equity is 52.334% which is more than enough. Anyways, it comes out to where he needs to be shoving like 54% of hands for it to be a +ev call. I think he is shoving more than that, but whatever, lets not discuss this hand as much as lets discuss the whole hand on a broader level. I am risking 1/3 of my chips on ten high. Do I really want to make this high of a variance play?

This table is pretty sick in general so there is an argument that your not going to find great spots. I still think I would fold though, if you call and lose your stack takes a big hit and you dbl a strong player. Your stack right now still is a good resteal size and you can raise/fold, if you lose this raise folding is going to be difficult and your going to be risking your life on every hand, IMO those factors lead to a fold, if your stack was a little healthier than I think, a call is fine. But also you have position on him, so he will still be pushing ATC in the future if you let this one go and you may have a more favourable spot in a few hands.

[TB17 0]

Looking at the lineup of that table, I'm not sure NNB wants to bank on the skill coming out. There are some sick players sitting there. I have a ton of respect for nnb's game but he's not at the level of Duck, cking, ape yet

Regardless, even if hes the worst player at the table, there is definitely a better spot here.

[Vick12 0]

I completely disagree. If you are on a short bankroll I think you should maximize your chances of getting a deep score, whereas if my BR is really healthy I'm trying to maximize my chance of winning. Im not talking about folding Aces or AK or anything retarded like that I'm talking about a player who is good, knows where he has +ev (slight) edge infront of him but chooses to pass it up and wait for a better spot (for example in NNB's example a few hands above vs. Duck U) where he has some FE. Know if the player we are discussing is good enough to know +ev when he spots it giving his BR a big boost will allow for him down the road to continue to get into +ev situations by being able to play in more tournies = more profit in the long run.

Silky...I know u are a solid player but this is just wrong. If you are playing in a mtt that is out of your bankroll...well...YOU SHOULDN'T BE PLAYING!!! I know in a perfect world people all use perfect bankroll management and NEVER play above their heads!!! =)Your decision making process in a SINGLE MTT should have NOTHING to do with how many more mtt's you can play in later. ALL poker decisions in mtt's should only have to do w/ that particular mtt. If you ARE INDEED basing decisions on how healthy your roll is instead of playing to win the MTT...YOU ARE SIMPLY PLAYING MTT'S WRONG. Isn't that the definition of "dead money/scared money"?

[silkyjonson 1]

Full Tilt Poker Game #6292762084: The Sunday Mulligan (46345636), Table 89 - 3000/6000 Ante 750 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:22:10 ET - 2008/05/05Seat 1: colenel decker (154,608)Seat 4: DuckU (56,068)Seat 5: no not baxter (171,726)Seat 6: adammc (217,366)Seat 7: mx4ever (109,508)Seat 8: ckingusc (242,010)Seat 9: apestyles (78,224)colenel decker antes 750DuckU antes 750no not baxter antes 750adammc antes 750mx4ever antes 750ckingusc antes 750apestyles antes 750no not baxter posts the small blind of 3,000adammc posts the big blind of 6,000The button is in seat #4*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to no not baxter [8h Th]mx4ever foldsckingusc foldsapestyles foldscolenel decker foldsDuckU raises to 55,318, and is all inno not baxterAlright, so I think DuckU ( a very good player) is shoving a very wide range like any two cards. It is 52,318 to call into 69,568. So my pot odds are 1.32 to 1 (or I need 42.9% equity). Now, if you put in T8s versus a random hand in pokerstove your equity is 52.334% which is more than enough. Anyways, it comes out to where he needs to be shoving like 54% of hands for it to be a +ev call. I think he is shoving more than that, but whatever, lets not discuss this hand as much as lets discuss the whole hand on a broader level. I am risking 1/3 of my chips on ten high. Do I really want to make this high of a variance play?

This table is pretty sick in general so there is an argument that your not going to find great spots. I still think I would fold though, if you call and lose your stack takes a big hit and you dbl a strong player. Your stack right now still is a good resteal size and you can raise/fold, if you lose this raise folding is going to be difficult and your going to be risking your life on every hand, IMO those factors lead to a fold, if your stack was a little healthier than I think, a call is fine. But also you have position on him, so he will still be pushing ATC in the future if you let this one go and you may have a more favourable spot in a few hands.