Something That Has Been Confusing Me..

[Danny Dingleberry 0]

yo, this might sound a bit doonghi (retarded) to most of you, but it's something I haven't really been able to fully grasp. Now.... lets say we're playing hold em, we're OOP, so we're check calling here, we get a naked flush draw on the flop, so we're 37% or whatever to make our flush once all the cards are out. Now, if we're playing a smart opponent, and he bets pot, we're going to call because we're getting 2-1 on about 2-1 right?And we know that if we miss on the turn, our opponent WILL bet pot again, and we're not going to get the right odds to draw to the river (we're going to assume he's not paying off our made flush) So then we're getting 2-1 on about 4-1. So we can't call here. So, effectively, we know if we don't make our flush on the turn (which would be able a 19% shot or so) we can't draw to the river against this opponent. So we're really taking 2-1 pot odds on what is really only a 4-1 shot. amirite? or am i doing it wrong? does this even make sense to anyone?do i go back to school and take a probility course or what?

[Merby 3]

You're correct to be concerned about your analysis.The only time you use the 2:1 stat on the flop is when there will be *NO MORE BETTING* i.e. you are facing an allin bet on the flop.For all other calculations, (mathematically) you should not call unless you're getting 4-to-1 pot odds.The 4-to-1 figure is obtained through the following reasoning. There are 47 unknown cards left in the deck: 9 are my flush cards and 38 are not. Therefore I need 38-to-9 odds about 4-to-1 to mathematically justifying calling here.

[antistuff 0]

your math is right. generally you can call a PSB hu on the flop with a naked flush draw. this is because of the combined chances of 1) getting a free turn card (huge)2) making your hand and getting paid off huge (doesn't have to happen very often)3) you could end up bluffing your opponent off the best hand (he checks the turn and you fire at a blank river)i wouldn't make a hobby of calling them on the turn though unless you had two over cards or a gut shot to go with it (in which case you should quite often be the one betting). you can call them on the turn if you are deep enough and you know your opponent would call a huge all in over bet on the river a decent percent of the time. the real lesson here is that you have to understand the implied odds that you are getting from the opponent you are playing considering their range in whatever spot you are in and how they play. it can be right to call a psb on the flop in position with something as weak as say a gut shot and a back door flush (it won't be very often, just saying though).

[pokerfan1080 0]

I'm fairly certain Merby is correct. An all-in situation is the only time to use odds with more than one card to come. All other situations you only use the odds with one card to come.But, there is that little concept called "implied odds", or as I like to call it, "the excuse we use to chase a draw". It's a good concept IF you have a really good read that your opponent will pay you off on the end.

[Merby 3]

I'm fairly certain Merby is correct. An all-in situation is the only time to use odds with more than one card to come. All other situations you only use the odds with one card to come.But, there is that little concept called "implied odds", or as I like to call it, "the excuse we use to chase a draw". It's a good concept IF you have a really good read that your opponent will pay you off on the end.

You are correct that there may be implied odds, good bluffing situations and so on which allow you to call bets that do not give you the correct odds. I neglected to point those out on purpose, because the most common flaw of new poker players is their tendency to play hands long past the point that they should have folded.As you pointed out, pokerfan, many new players will use the "implied odds" mantra as an excuse to call a bet when they should be folding their hand. I think it is a *very* good idea to start off learning to play in these situations *only* based on the pot odds you are facing. Once you are comfortable knowing when the math tells you to call or fold can you, you will be in a good habit of "needing a coherent and concrete" reason as to why you are not playing based on the mathematics (eg: I've seen that this guy gets married hands if he plays post-flop, so I stand a good chance getting paid off when I hit my flush).

[Danny Dingleberry 0]

i understand pot odds/implied odds etc etc. In this example (should have made it more clear) we're not going to get implied odds... villian is making us pay to draw and won't give us the extra bet if we make our draw

[pokerfan1080 0]

You are correct that there may be implied odds, good bluffing situations and so on which allow you to call bets that do not give you the correct odds. I neglected to point those out on purpose, because the most common flaw of new poker players is their tendency to play hands long past the point that they should have folded.As you pointed out, pokerfan, many new players will use the "implied odds" mantra as an excuse to call a bet when they should be folding their hand. I think it is a *very* good idea to start off learning to play in these situations *only* based on the pot odds you are facing. Once you are comfortable knowing when the math tells you to call or fold can you, you will be in a good habit of "needing a coherent and concrete" reason as to why you are not playing based on the mathematics (eg: I've seen that this guy gets married hands if he plays post-flop, so I stand a good chance getting paid off when I hit my flush).

I agree with you about implied odds, that's why I bolded and changed the text size of the IF in my reply. Takes a really good read for it to work.

[pokerfan1080 0]

i understand pot odds/implied odds etc etc. In this example (should have made it more clear) we're not going to get implied odds... villian is making us pay to draw and won't give us the extra bet if we make our draw

Then the odds you need to consider in this hand is with one card to come, therefore, you need 4:1 pot odds to call as Merby explained. The 37% (2:1) you stated is with two cards to come, you are actually 20% (4:1).

[copernicus 0]

Now switch seats. You've got TPTK facing a possible flush draw. Stacks are reasonably deep (say 30 bbs). Standard raise and call preflop. You bet 2/3 pot pricing out the 4:1 flop draw, you bet 2/3 pot again on the turn clearly pricing out that 4:1 draw, the flush card hits on the river and villain goes all in.Thought process: "I priced out the flush draw on the flop and on the turn, so he shouldnt really have a flush, he's bluffing trying to force me out with 2d best hand.Uh oh....if I call then I've made his play on the flop and turn, because it means that he really had implied odds to draw on the flop and turn."Is this a paradox or is there a straightforward decision to fold or call?

[pokerfan1080 0]

Now switch seats. You've got TPTK facing a possible flush draw. Stacks are reasonably deep (say 30 bbs). Standard raise and call preflop. You bet 2/3 pot pricing out the 4:1 flop draw, you bet 2/3 pot again on the turn clearly pricing out that 4:1 draw, the flush card hits on the river and villain goes all in.Thought process: "I priced out the flush draw on the flop and on the turn, so he shouldnt really have a flush, he's bluffing trying to force me out with 2d best hand.Uh oh....if I call then I've made his play on the flop and turn, because it means that he really had implied odds to draw on the flop and turn."Is this a paradox or is there a straightforward decision to fold or call?

Paradox indeed. But, I've caught more than one player trying to pull this move on me before when they tried to represent the made flush draw on the river. However, I've been caught paying off a flush draw as well.I'm not sure there is a straightforward decision in this situation. If there is, I'm missing it.

[copernicus 0]

Paradox indeed. But, I've caught more than one player trying to pull this move on me before when they tried to represent the made flush draw on the river. However, I've been caught paying off a flush draw as well.I'm not sure there is a straightforward decision in this situation. If there is, I'm missing it.

I dont think there is either. It depends a lot on how much he bets compared to the pot and the stack, with the basic assumption being that he had the draw, find a good reason why he doesnt have it before you call.