Ak Late In Live Tourney

[gt9550 0]

Here's the scenario. It was a $100 buy in tourney at foxwoods, players start with 5k, blinds go up every 20 min. It's late in the tourney, down to 13 players. 20 places paid, 11-20th paid the same and then final table was better money. The blinds were at 2000-4000 with a 400 ante. Average stack was about 46k. I had 68k in chips when this hand came down: My table had 6 players, the tables had just shuffled and I was only familiar with a couple of them. The girl that was UTG moved all in for 61k. Seemed a bit overzealous to me but what do I know. I was next to act and looked down at AK offsuit. What is my play here? I will include all the results later, but figure without details I can get some good analysis so thanks in advance.

[copernicus 0]

Aces are a big part of her range with an adjusted M of a little above 4, far outweighing the times she has AA, KK. the rest of the time your flipping from a little behind with decent odds. Easy call imo.

[KentuckySlim 0]

Here's the scenario. It was a $100 buy in tourney at foxwoods, players start with 5k, blinds go up every 20 min. It's late in the tourney, down to 13 players. 20 places paid, 11-20th paid the same and then final table was better money. The blinds were at 2000-4000 with a 400 ante. Average stack was about 46k. I had 68k in chips when this hand came down: My table had 6 players, the tables had just shuffled and I was only familiar with a couple of them. The girl that was UTG moved all in for 61k. Seemed a bit overzealous to me but what do I know. I was next to act and looked down at AK offsuit. What is my play here? I will include all the results later, but figure without details I can get some good analysis so thanks in advance.

I would generally stick it all in here. With AA or KK, one would likely not shove 15 BB utg b/c they want action. I'm not terribly disappointed with a coin flip and I think a worse ace could definitely be possible, even likely, 6 handed. This would give you a great shot to win with 20% of the chips in play if you win it. If you're up against AA or KK 6-handed or someone wakes up with a monster behind you, that's just bad luck.Obvi no read makes this tough. Also, I play almost exclusively online - don't know if that makes a difference...

[sandro 0]

lets see.. you made it this far in the tourny and now you're willing to flip a coin for your life???even though you're pretty positive that you're not dominated, i still think you have a case for folding... i would have faith in my play and know that my chances would be way better if i just folded and played at my level...i say fold...unless of course this tourny doesnt mean all that much to you, in which case i would call instantly and hope for the best.... it's nice time to gamble....

[copernicus 0]

lets see.. you made it this far in the tourny and now you're willing to flip a coin for your life???even though you're pretty positive that you're not dominated, i still think you have a case for folding... i would have faith in my play and know that my chances would be way better if i just folded and played at my level...i say fold...unless of course this tourny doesnt mean all that much to you, in which case i would call instantly and hope for the best.... it's nice time to gamble....

Against 88+,AQs-A9s,KQs,ATo+ youre a 57:43 favorite and youre getting odds. Winning puts you solidly into the FT, and folding leaves you an adjusted M of 4+. I dont think its even close to a fold. In a SnG on the bubble it may be a fold, thats the ony time.

[Berwatchey 0]

Against 88+,AQs-A9s,KQs,ATo+ youre a 57:43 favorite and youre getting odds. Winning puts you solidly into the FT, and folding leaves you an adjusted M of 4+. I dont think its even close to a fold. In a SnG on the bubble it may be a fold, thats the ony time.

hmm, i know its definately personal preference, but i would say despite knowing your slightly ahead in all likelyhood. even at 57 to 43 you lose this pot almost as much as you win it. i would avoid flipping here and wait for a better spot, but i'm more cautious than some.if you are confident in your post flop play i'd say muck and find a better spot.(which you will certainly find if you are patient.) maby even show your mucked A K after everyone folds. it would buy you a rep as uber tight. and give you a chance to make some good steals.

[copernicus 0]

hmm, i know its definately personal preference, but i would say despite knowing your slightly ahead in all likelyhood. even at 57 to 43 you lose this pot almost as much as you win it. i would avoid flipping here and wait for a better spot, but i'm more cautious than some.if you are confident in your post flop play i'd say muck and find a better spot.(which you will certainly find if you are patient.) maby even show your mucked A K after everyone folds. it would buy you a rep as uber tight. and give you a chance to make some good steals.

With an adjusted M of 4+ you dont have time to "wait for a better spot". I might be able to buy waiting for FIV with a weaker hand, but 57:43 (minimum!) is way too big an edge to pass up at this stage of the tourney. Your goal is top 3, and you arent getting there folding AK against a wide range pusher.I honestly didnt expect a single answer of fold.

[KentuckySlim 0]

hmm, i know its definately personal preference, but i would say despite knowing your slightly ahead in all likelyhood. even at 57 to 43 you lose this pot almost as much as you win it. i would avoid flipping here and wait for a better spot, but i'm more cautious than some.if you are confident in your post flop play i'd say muck and find a better spot.(which you will certainly find if you are patient.) maby even show your mucked A K after everyone folds. it would buy you a rep as uber tight. and give you a chance to make some good steals.

57 to 43 is a pretty big favorite.With this blind structure, i can't imagine there will be a ton of postflop play.

[gt9550 0]

Thanks for the replies. Some pretty good analysis. To let you know what happened, I called. She showed QQ which surprised me because I would not expect that big a move with such a strong hand. I was hoping for a weaker ace or maybe a middle pair. Door card was a Q and was sent home questioning the play. Looks like the overwhelming majority say the call was correct. Any other insights are greatly appreciated.

[copernicus 0]

Thanks for the replies. Some pretty good analysis. To let you know what happened, I called. She showed QQ which surprised me because I would not expect that big a move with such a strong hand. I was hoping for a weaker ace or maybe a middle pair. Door card was a Q and was sent home questioning the play. Looks like the overwhelming majority say the call was correct. Any other insights are greatly appreciated.

there isnt enough difference between QQ (57:43) and middle pair (55:45) to worry about. Anything not AA or KK is +EV. And the cursing when QQ hits her set on the flop and you river a J for the straight is worth the 4 point swing lol.She also made the right play in pushing, you shouldnt have been surprised. With an M of 4 all a smaller bet PF can do is let someone get away from AK when they miss the flop. At some point you are always playing for your tourney life or to double up with less than AA, unless youre a wire to wire chip leader.