Wang's Bases

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I also think betting against the cubs is an excellent strat. So many cubs fans out there, betting up their lines. Take for example the vegas odds of the cubs winning the world series. The cubs are almost always in the top five worst odds, and that's obscene. Just stupid cub fans betting with their hearts. I love the cubs, and have bet them exactly one time over the years, and that was in the Chicago/braves series, after they had a 1-0 lead, and a braves fan wanted to bet me, straight up, even with spotting me game one, just so he could have some action on the game.

If that's true, it's a good idea, but it's not always true. Put these NL teams in descending order based on the amount of public money bet on each team so far this year:Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies I'll let everyone give it a shot if you want.

[jeff_536 3]

It's a little complicated, but it boils down to something like:- Everyone likes Atlanta- Nobody likes Florida- Atlanta will get more action than Florida at whatever the "real" price is- The sports books know all of this- The books' lines will reflect their knowledge of public perception- Therefore, Atlanta will trade at an overvalued price, and Florida will trade at an undervalued priceViscerally, people are going to see Atlanta at what they perceive to be a cheap price, when in reality the book counts on this, and is offering them Atlanta at an inflated price, relative to the actual likely outcome. Just a very, very standard contrarian trade, based on the overreactions of the betting public.WangEDIT- This is the same reason I try to fade the Mariners and get on the Giants and Pirates as much as possible. I am still thinking about betting the latter two teams -- especially San Fran -- but I think I might have missed my window.

Okay, makes sense.

If that's true, it's a good idea, but it's not always true. Put these NL teams in descending order based on the amount of public money bet on each team so far this year:Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies I'll let everyone give it a shot if you want.

Mets, Phillies, Cards, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres

[timwakefield 68]

Can you explain to somebody who knows almost nothing about sports betting what it means to say Pittsburgh +125? Does that mean you have bet on Pittsburgh to win and they are the underdog so they pay +125 on a 100 bet when they win?

[wsox8 10]

Can you explain to somebody who knows almost nothing about sports betting what it means to say Pittsburgh +125? Does that mean you have bet on Pittsburgh to win and they are the underdog so they pay +125 on a 100 bet when they win?

Pitt +125 means that they are the underdog and you'd be betting on them to win. You bet $100 to win $125 (example)Toronto -160 Example: you have to bet $160 to win 100.In baseball and hockey (soccer) there are also run lines or puck lines.. This means that you bet on a team -1.5 or +1.5 and the team must win - (or lose by less than +) 1.5 runs/goals.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Okay, makes sense.Mets, Phillies, Cards, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres

Not bad. The real list as of tonight (with your order in parentheses): 1.Mets (1)2.Braves (4)3.Padres (8)4.Phillies (2)5.Dodgers(6)6.Cubs(5)7.Diamondbacks (7)8.Cardinals(3)You only whiffed on a couple (Padres, Cardinals). It surprises a lot of people that the Braves are so popular, but it shouldn't given their national (and especially Southern) appeal. Cardinals are a relatively medium or smallish sized market, but people generally conflate their history with current popularity. Cubs are only the sixth most popular team for bettors in the NL, so fading the Cubs wouldn't really work out all that well. Phillies, Padres and Braves are high up on my to-fade list. For some reason I haven't found any good spots to bet against the Mets yet. It might be a mental block, but I'll find a some spots. The Marlins vs. Braves game today was a fucking wet dream for me. Marlins are 25th most popular, Braves are 5th most. Anybody wanna guess the top 7 in the AL this year?? I bet there'll be some surprises in there....WangPS- I lost about 2/3 of a unit or so tonight, assuming the Rockies end up getting one hit by Randy-fucking-Wolf. Holliday: 0/4 3K. Good game, faggot.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

Anybody wanna guess the top 7 in the AL this year?? I bet there'll be some surprises in there....Wang

I am shocked the cubs are so low...AL: 1) Yankees2) Red Sox3) Angels4) Detroit5) Toronto ( I hope canada counts in your numbers)6) Seattle7) Texas

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I am shocked the cubs are so low...AL: 1) Yankees2) Red Sox3) Angels4) Detroit5) Toronto ( I hope canada counts in your numbers)6) Seattle7) Texas

1) LA Angels2) Yankees3) Detroit4) Mariners5) Boston6) Indians7) BlueJays

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Unless something changes dramatically, I'm going to be on the Nationals vs the Mets, the Reds vs the Cubs, the Pirates vs the Dodgers, and probably the Royals vs the Angels and the Orioles vs Contreras/White Sox. Tomorrow's card is great. I could fade Sabathia and Indians chalk vs. the Tigers, but I don't know enough about the guy the Tigs are throwing out there, which probably means a lean and an eventual pass unless the line moves some more. I might be on Tampa as a favorite against Minnesota (hernandez suuuucks), too. Actually, I think I can find a play in every game except San Fran/Zona, because I refuse to bet on Zito until he's getting like +250.Wang

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

Unless something changes dramatically, I'm going to be on the Nationals vs the Mets, the Reds vs the Cubs, the Pirates vs the Dodgers, and probably the Royals vs the Angels and the Orioles vs Contreras/White Sox. Tomorrow's card is great. I could fade Sabathia and Indians chalk vs. the Tigers, but I don't know enough about the guy the Tigs are throwing out there, which probably means a lean and an eventual pass unless the line moves some more. I might be on Tampa as a favorite against Minnesota (hernandez suuuucks), too. Actually, I think I can find a play in every game except San Fran/Zona, because I refuse to bet on Zito until he's getting like +250.Wang

what's the SF/Zona line?I almost had the Indians instead of Texas.. I figured big state, dengerate gamblers... but the Indians have a large and hardcore fan base, and I think Texas has like zero hard core fans.I am shocked that the angels are higher than the yankees, but I imagine thtere's a little anti yankee back lash along with their lack luster prospects this year. Boston being five was the only real shocker for me on the list, otherwise I think I did pretty well.

[jeff_536 3]

Not bad. The real list as of tonight (with your order in parentheses): 1.Mets (1)2.Braves (4)3.Padres (8)4.Phillies (2)5.Dodgers(6)6.Cubs(5)7.Diamondbacks (7)8.Cardinals(3)You only whiffed on a couple (Padres, Cardinals). It surprises a lot of people that the Braves are so popular, but it shouldn't given their national (and especially Southern) appeal. Cardinals are a relatively medium or smallish sized market, but people generally conflate their history with current popularity. Cubs are only the sixth most popular team for bettors in the NL, so fading the Cubs wouldn't really work out all that well. Phillies, Padres and Braves are high up on my to-fade list. For some reason I haven't found any good spots to bet against the Mets yet. It might be a mental block, but I'll find a some spots. The Marlins vs. Braves game today was a fucking wet dream for me. Marlins are 25th most popular, Braves are 5th most. Anybody wanna guess the top 7 in the AL this year?? I bet there'll be some surprises in there....WangPS- I lost about 2/3 of a unit or so tonight, assuming the Rockies end up getting one hit by Randy-fucking-Wolf. Holliday: 0/4 3K. Good game, faggot.

Did you pound the Jays like you should have?

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Did you pound the Jays like you should have?

On them. Won a unit. You'll notice in that instance, I was betting a relatively popular team vs. an unpopular one, but only because there was a different contrarian path to take: Trachsel fucking sucks, and I think I'm more aware of that than the betting public. Well, now they know.

[jeff_536 3]

On them. Won a unit. You'll notice in that instance, I was betting a relatively popular team vs. an unpopular one, but only because there was a different contrarian path to take: Trachsel fucking sucks, and I think I'm more aware of that than the betting public. Well, now they know.

Marcum is also better than most people think. He's among the best fourth-starters in MLB. The Jays got pitching this year.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Marcum is also better than most people think. He's among the best fourth-starters in MLB. The Jays got pitching this year.

Yup, which is why I was very comfortable with the fade. Wouldn't do me much good to have, like, Nate Robertson (deceased) on the hill. I was actually on Seattle (AND Felix Hernandez) the other day in a very similar situation, which had me weirded out.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I am on ten (TEN!) games tonight:I am on the following teams:TexasHoustonColoradoClevelandPittsburghOaklandTampa BayTampa BayTampa BayKansas CityMilwaukeeBaltimoreI am having second thoughts about the Cleveland bet, and I might end up buying my way out of it before game time. We'll see. Maybe I'll do something stupid. Tampa Bay with Shields on the mound vs. a yet-to-implode Livan Hernandez. I must be missing something here...Wang

[JoeyJoJo 18]

I am on the following teams:Tampa BayTampa BayTampa BayI must be missing something here...

You just never know how a young team will react to the rare tripleheader.Or are you saying you're on them for 3 units?Or was it just a mistake?Or do I not know anything about sports betting?(That last one isn't exclusive to the first two.)

[SBriand 4]

I suddenly feel like betting...Edit:I will start off slowBrewersRangersOrioles

[CobaltBlue 662]

Last season I think I had a thread (or at least posted in one) like this. I put together a spreadsheet with formulas where I compared home/away win-loss records and pitcher records in order to put together a formula of winning percentage, which I then compared to lines and took ones that looked like good value. I think I mostly broke even or finished up a bit. Eventually, I got tired of the effort and wasn't sure it was +EV, so I gave up. The notion of straight betting on unpopular teams over popular ones is somewhat intriguing.My brother and I always wondered if you could fade the Yankees every game and make a profit on the season.

[Dirtydutch 8]

Hey Wang, is there a good book on sports betting you'd recommend?

[Shimmering Wang 1]

You just never know how a young team will react to the rare tripleheader.Or are you saying you're on them for 3 units?Or was it just a mistake?Or do I not know anything about sports betting?(That last one isn't exclusive to the first two.)

If I weren't trying to keep my bets at one unit per, I would be on them for multiple units. I gave my roommate the password and username to my offshores with orders to buy-back anything more than a 1-unit play on any team. He's doing it, too, because this is the kind of thing he does. That being said, I love love love Tampa tonight.

I suddenly feel like betting...Edit:I will start off slowBrewersRangersOrioles

COOL! Orioles are stuck three runs without getting an out! Tonight is going to be a disaster!!

Last season I think I had a thread (or at least posted in one) like this. I put together a spreadsheet with formulas where I compared home/away win-loss records and pitcher records in order to put together a formula of winning percentage, which I then compared to lines and took ones that looked like good value. I think I mostly broke even or finished up a bit. Eventually, I got tired of the effort and wasn't sure it was +EV, so I gave up. The notion of straight betting on unpopular teams over popular ones is somewhat intriguing.My brother and I always wondered if you could fade the Yankees every game and make a profit on the season.

It's a little more complicated than that, but it makes sense economically, doesn't it? Combine sports analysis with economic and behavioral price analysis.You have to know what teams are popular with bettors, what information they are acting on, etc. You also have to find a big enough edge to compensate for house vig, and know what individual players (specifically, pitchers) are popular because they are overperforming, and which are unpopular because they are underperforming, and assume those fluky performances are going to lead to a regression to the mean. If some pitcher has 3 wins, and an ERA under 1.00 in three starts, but opponents are only hitting .167 on balls-in-play against him, well, I am going to fade his ass if he becomes a big favorite.

Hey Wang, is there a good book on sports betting you'd recommend?

Yes. www.matchbook.com it is the only book. If you're going to bet on sports, then you have to be booking your bets here. It's a betting-exchange, and commission is 1%-2%, as opposed to 4.5% at sports books.

I just read the Bill James wiki page, and I'm fascinated. Is there a particular book or collection I should start with?

Huh. Somebody else can answer this better. The book MONEYBALL was the one that got me interested. It's a human-interest story about a maniacal GM finding and exploiting market inefficiencies and laughing at people who don't believe in computers.Wang

[Dirtydutch 8]

Good to know but I actually meant a book about sports betting strategy.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Good to know but I actually meant a book about sports betting strategy.

Haha, sorry. I don't know, actually. I learned by losing my ass, taking econ classes, and discussing options with like-minded friends.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Disaster Report:Tonight is going to be a disaster.

[SBriand 4]

Disaster Report:Tonight is going to be a disaster.

shhh...Contreras will get back to normal.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I suddenly feel like betting...Edit:I will start off slowBrewersRangersOrioles

Rangers will win, Orioles and Brewers are going to lose. Hope you got some good prices.Wang

[wsox8 10]

Disaster Report:Tonight is going to be a disaster.

Definitely possible for me too.