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No offense, but that logic doesn't work
None taken, but it's something I take into consideration when looking.wow another OT game in the Wild-Avalanche series.edit: Can I get a run in the AZ-SF game please?
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Arizona 4, SF 3Backing SF is torturous. Just... why do I have money on (pauses to look up name) J. Sanchez? God. Dammit dammit dammit.
Jonathan Sanchez is awesome. He has huge strikeout numbers. His numbers for this year would be alot better if he didnt have to face the Brewers and the D-backs in 2 of his first 3 starts since they both destroy lefties.
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Jonathan Sanchez is awesome. He has huge strikeout numbers. His numbers for this year would be alot better if he didnt have to face the Brewers and the D-backs in 2 of his first 3 starts since they both destroy lefties.
Yeah, I know. I liked Sanchez here, and was pretty excited to fade RJ in his first start back, but, like I said, backing the Giants is torturous. Aurilia lined out to 3rdCastillo singled to left-centerLewis hit for OrtmeieirLewis struck out swingingBocock struck out lookingJust having to look at that makes me stabby.
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Giants best chance to take a lead.Pinch-hitter, Randy Winn, Aaron Rowand, Ray Durham, Bengie Molina.How do you even watch the Giants in their half of the inning? It's gotta be fun to watch Cain/Linecum, etc., but leading off a game with Winn (a league average hitter, at best, and 3 years past his prime), Rowand, Durham ( (OPS+ under 90 last year, in the THREE hole), and Bengie Molina (career OPS+ of 87, hitting cleanup)?

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DSOfaoisfjioasjoidfj!!!At the very same instant, Molina hits a sac fly to give the Giants the lead and Nate hits a 2-out, 3-run bomb to give the Pirates a 2-run lead in the ninthPlease, please, please, please ship.

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Tuesday Leans:No plays as of yet. Just initial impressions.Marlins (Olsen) EVEN vs. Braves (Jurjens)This one's pretty standard for meReds +102 (Harang) at Cubs (Dempster)Also pretty standard. I love Harang, and don't think he gets nearly enough love. Dempster has pitched well this year, but he's been a below-league-average pitcher out of the pen the last two years. I'll take Harang and a price all day. Toronto -133 (Marcum) at Baltimore (Trachsel)I'd like this better if it were a little lower, like -125ish. I think I'm going to hope the price comes down. I hate taking chalk, as a rule, but Trachsel's peripherals (6BB, 3K, .195 BABIP) are terrible. He's not pitching as well as his 3.00 ERA suggests. I just hate taking chalk.Royals +118 (Bale) at Seattle (Batista)Pretty much the EXACT same thing as the Rockies bet. Batista should never be a favorite, nor should an offense that features Wilkerson, Vidro, Betancourt and Sexson among others. Seattle was one of the most overrated teams in baseball, so I'll fade them all year, or until people catch on.Rockies +118 (Jimenez) at San Diego (Wolf)Odds and I get to fade San Diego's offense and Randy Wolf. Okay. If I must. Wang

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Tuesday Leans:No plays as of yet. Just initial impressions.Marlins (Olsen) EVEN vs. Braves (Jurjens)This one's pretty standard for meReds +102 (Harang) at Cubs (Dempster)Also pretty standard. I love Harang, and don't think he gets nearly enough love. Dempster has pitched well this year, but he's been a below-league-average pitcher out of the pen the last two years. I'll take Harang and a price all day. Toronto -133 (Marcum) at Baltimore (Trachsel)I'd like this better if it were a little lower, like -125ish. I think I'm going to hope the price comes down. I hate taking chalk, as a rule, but Trachsel's peripherals (6BB, 3K, .195 BABIP) are terrible. He's not pitching as well as his 3.00 ERA suggests. I just hate taking chalk.Royals +118 (Bale) at Seattle (Batista)Pretty much the EXACT same thing as the Rockies bet. Batista should never be a favorite, nor should an offense that features Wilkerson, Vidro, Betancourt and Sexson among others. Seattle was one of the most overrated teams in baseball, so I'll fade them all year, or until people catch on.Rockies +118 (Jimenez) at San Diego (Wolf)Odds and I get to fade San Diego's offense and Randy Wolf. Okay. If I must. Wang
I don't know much about baseball betting, but I think I know a little about baseball.Explain, if you wouldn't mind, why the Fla/Atl game is 'standard'. Is it because Jurjenns is a rookie and it's at Fla?
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I don't know much about baseball betting, but I think I know a little about baseball.Explain, if you wouldn't mind, why the Fla/Atl game is 'standard'. Is it because Jurjenns is a rookie and it's at Fla?
It's a little complicated, but it boils down to something like:- Everyone likes Atlanta- Nobody likes Florida- Atlanta will get more action than Florida at whatever the "real" price is- The sports books know all of this- The books' lines will reflect their knowledge of public perception- Therefore, Atlanta will trade at an overvalued price, and Florida will trade at an undervalued priceViscerally, people are going to see Atlanta at what they perceive to be a cheap price, when in reality the book counts on this, and is offering them Atlanta at an inflated price, relative to the actual likely outcome. Just a very, very standard contrarian trade, based on the overreactions of the betting public.WangEDIT- This is the same reason I try to fade the Mariners and get on the Giants and Pirates as much as possible. I am still thinking about betting the latter two teams -- especially San Fran -- but I think I might have missed my window.
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I think there is alot of value in betting the royals right now. They are playing really well, but no one gives two craps about them outside of KC. At first blush I think the KC/Sea is your best bet and would hammer that

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I think there is alot of value in betting the royals right now. They are playing really well, but no one gives two craps about them outside of KC. At first blush I think the KC/Sea is your best bet and would hammer that
Yeah, the Royals are probably underrated (Butler can fucking RAKE), which is what makes that play doubly easy.That being said, I don't really believe in hammering anybody. I try to keep all my bets at 1 unit, except for the very, very rare case where I convince myself there's so much value I'm willing to fade the variance.WangEDIT- I'm talking specifically about baseball. I'll tend to make more variable plays on other sports.
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I also think betting against the cubs is an excellent strat. So many cubs fans out there, betting up their lines. Take for example the vegas odds of the cubs winning the world series. The cubs are almost always in the top five worst odds, and that's obscene. Just stupid cub fans betting with their hearts. I love the cubs, and have bet them exactly one time over the years, and that was in the Chicago/braves series, after they had a 1-0 lead, and a braves fan wanted to bet me, straight up, even with spotting me game one, just so he could have some action on the game.

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