SuitedAces21 2,722 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 I don't see why one has to rule out the other.ouch. Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 No offense, but that logic doesn't workNone taken, but it's something I take into consideration when looking.wow another OT game in the Wild-Avalanche series.edit: Can I get a run in the AZ-SF game please? Link to post Share on other sites
Moneyball16 0 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Arizona 4, SF 3Backing SF is torturous. Just... why do I have money on (pauses to look up name) J. Sanchez? God. Dammit dammit dammit.Jonathan Sanchez is awesome. He has huge strikeout numbers. His numbers for this year would be alot better if he didnt have to face the Brewers and the D-backs in 2 of his first 3 starts since they both destroy lefties. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Jonathan Sanchez is awesome. He has huge strikeout numbers. His numbers for this year would be alot better if he didnt have to face the Brewers and the D-backs in 2 of his first 3 starts since they both destroy lefties.Yeah, I know. I liked Sanchez here, and was pretty excited to fade RJ in his first start back, but, like I said, backing the Giants is torturous. Aurilia lined out to 3rdCastillo singled to left-centerLewis hit for OrtmeieirLewis struck out swingingBocock struck out lookingJust having to look at that makes me stabby. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Giants best chance to take a lead.Pinch-hitter, Randy Winn, Aaron Rowand, Ray Durham, Bengie Molina.How do you even watch the Giants in their half of the inning? It's gotta be fun to watch Cain/Linecum, etc., but leading off a game with Winn (a league average hitter, at best, and 3 years past his prime), Rowand, Durham ( (OPS+ under 90 last year, in the THREE hole), and Bengie Molina (career OPS+ of 87, hitting cleanup)? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Velez singled to shortstopWinn reached on fielder's choice, Winn reached first and Velez advanced to third on S. Drew's throwing errorPlease. One time. Fluky win. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Bases Loaded for the Giants, with the "heart" of the order coming up Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 They've gotta get something here.. And you were saying? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 They've gotta get something here.. And you were saying?Saito put a runner in the 9th, giving the Pirates a puncher's chance.FLUKE FLUKE FLUKE FLUKE FLUKE! Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Giants get a run.. woo Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 I think Durham just beat out a Double-Play ball. Tie game. Runners on the corners with one out. Sac fly please, my favorite of the Molina brothers Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Wow McLouth with a 3 run HR off Saitoand Molina with a sac fly to put the Giants up 1. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 DSOfaoisfjioasjoidfj!!!At the very same instant, Molina hits a sac fly to give the Giants the lead and Nate hits a 2-out, 3-run bomb to give the Pirates a 2-run lead in the ninthPlease, please, please, please ship. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 If I lose both of these, today will be the most gut-wrenching of all my pedestrian gambling nights. Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 done with my games.. hope your teams finish it out, GL wang. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Just please hold. Matt (pauses to look up name) Capps, please hold. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 PITTSBURGH HOLDS! Where's Nate McLouth? Somebody get that man a fucking beer. Link to post Share on other sites
KowboyKoop 0 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 1. Greinke did not leave the team last year. It was 2006.2. You bet against he who is Zack Greinke?? Shame shame. Greinke > offense Link to post Share on other sites
JoeyJoJo 18 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 2. You bet against he who is Zack Greinke?? Shame shame. Greinke > offenseI believe you are mistaken. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Tuesday Leans:No plays as of yet. Just initial impressions.Marlins (Olsen) EVEN vs. Braves (Jurjens)This one's pretty standard for meReds +102 (Harang) at Cubs (Dempster)Also pretty standard. I love Harang, and don't think he gets nearly enough love. Dempster has pitched well this year, but he's been a below-league-average pitcher out of the pen the last two years. I'll take Harang and a price all day. Toronto -133 (Marcum) at Baltimore (Trachsel)I'd like this better if it were a little lower, like -125ish. I think I'm going to hope the price comes down. I hate taking chalk, as a rule, but Trachsel's peripherals (6BB, 3K, .195 BABIP) are terrible. He's not pitching as well as his 3.00 ERA suggests. I just hate taking chalk.Royals +118 (Bale) at Seattle (Batista)Pretty much the EXACT same thing as the Rockies bet. Batista should never be a favorite, nor should an offense that features Wilkerson, Vidro, Betancourt and Sexson among others. Seattle was one of the most overrated teams in baseball, so I'll fade them all year, or until people catch on.Rockies +118 (Jimenez) at San Diego (Wolf)Odds and I get to fade San Diego's offense and Randy Wolf. Okay. If I must. Wang Link to post Share on other sites
jeff_536 3 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Tuesday Leans:No plays as of yet. Just initial impressions.Marlins (Olsen) EVEN vs. Braves (Jurjens)This one's pretty standard for meReds +102 (Harang) at Cubs (Dempster)Also pretty standard. I love Harang, and don't think he gets nearly enough love. Dempster has pitched well this year, but he's been a below-league-average pitcher out of the pen the last two years. I'll take Harang and a price all day. Toronto -133 (Marcum) at Baltimore (Trachsel)I'd like this better if it were a little lower, like -125ish. I think I'm going to hope the price comes down. I hate taking chalk, as a rule, but Trachsel's peripherals (6BB, 3K, .195 BABIP) are terrible. He's not pitching as well as his 3.00 ERA suggests. I just hate taking chalk.Royals +118 (Bale) at Seattle (Batista)Pretty much the EXACT same thing as the Rockies bet. Batista should never be a favorite, nor should an offense that features Wilkerson, Vidro, Betancourt and Sexson among others. Seattle was one of the most overrated teams in baseball, so I'll fade them all year, or until people catch on.Rockies +118 (Jimenez) at San Diego (Wolf)Odds and I get to fade San Diego's offense and Randy Wolf. Okay. If I must. WangI don't know much about baseball betting, but I think I know a little about baseball.Explain, if you wouldn't mind, why the Fla/Atl game is 'standard'. Is it because Jurjenns is a rookie and it's at Fla? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 I don't know much about baseball betting, but I think I know a little about baseball.Explain, if you wouldn't mind, why the Fla/Atl game is 'standard'. Is it because Jurjenns is a rookie and it's at Fla?It's a little complicated, but it boils down to something like:- Everyone likes Atlanta- Nobody likes Florida- Atlanta will get more action than Florida at whatever the "real" price is- The sports books know all of this- The books' lines will reflect their knowledge of public perception- Therefore, Atlanta will trade at an overvalued price, and Florida will trade at an undervalued priceViscerally, people are going to see Atlanta at what they perceive to be a cheap price, when in reality the book counts on this, and is offering them Atlanta at an inflated price, relative to the actual likely outcome. Just a very, very standard contrarian trade, based on the overreactions of the betting public.WangEDIT- This is the same reason I try to fade the Mariners and get on the Giants and Pirates as much as possible. I am still thinking about betting the latter two teams -- especially San Fran -- but I think I might have missed my window. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 I think there is alot of value in betting the royals right now. They are playing really well, but no one gives two craps about them outside of KC. At first blush I think the KC/Sea is your best bet and would hammer that Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 I think there is alot of value in betting the royals right now. They are playing really well, but no one gives two craps about them outside of KC. At first blush I think the KC/Sea is your best bet and would hammer thatYeah, the Royals are probably underrated (Butler can fucking RAKE), which is what makes that play doubly easy.That being said, I don't really believe in hammering anybody. I try to keep all my bets at 1 unit, except for the very, very rare case where I convince myself there's so much value I'm willing to fade the variance.WangEDIT- I'm talking specifically about baseball. I'll tend to make more variable plays on other sports. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 I also think betting against the cubs is an excellent strat. So many cubs fans out there, betting up their lines. Take for example the vegas odds of the cubs winning the world series. The cubs are almost always in the top five worst odds, and that's obscene. Just stupid cub fans betting with their hearts. I love the cubs, and have bet them exactly one time over the years, and that was in the Chicago/braves series, after they had a 1-0 lead, and a braves fan wanted to bet me, straight up, even with spotting me game one, just so he could have some action on the game. Link to post Share on other sites
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