Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 You know, I understand that any value I find on baseball lines will be invisible in the short run. If I'm finding a 2-3% edge, it's pretty likely I'll have lots of losing nights, weeks, and -- Goddammit -- months. That being said, I still lose my fucking mind at least twice a week. In short: I need a place to bitch and moan about my bases bets. Monday April 14Twins +145 @ Detroit (DET 11, MIN 9)Look, I'm a huge Tigers fan, and I really had no idea how to handle this situation. Coming into the season, I thought Detroit was going to be one of the most popular, most overpriced teams in the league, and therefore their opponents would have a TON of value. So I decided I'd place my bets at the beginning of the day, fading the Tigers if I had to, and then root like hell for them after the first pitch. Tonight, the Twins blew TWO separate 5-run leads, and Nick Punto hit a rocket to leftfield which defensive replacement Ryan Raburn misplayed, but still caught, with runners on first and second to end the game. I would have been TOTALLY okay with losing this bet, except I'd already divorced myself from the prospect of a Tigers win, and started counting my money. When the Tigers rallied, I had no idea what I was rooting for, and was going to be unhappy no matter what. I might have to just dodge the Tigers all year...Tampa Bay + 125 vs. NYA (Yankees 8, Rays 7)Around the same time the Twins were blowing their lead, the Rays were storming back against the Yankees, eventually erasing a 6 run deficit, only to eventually lose by a run anyway. God. Dammit. Now I'm on KC (up 3-1 against SEA), SanFran (tied at 3 against Arizona, disaster looming), and Pittsburgh (up a run with Zach Duke on the mound against the Dodgers).There's a very real possibility that I'll end up an ulcer-inducing 0-5 tonight, and I will probably end up trying to smother myself with a plastic bag. If somebody blows a save or a five run lead, there will be pills involved.Wang Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Arizona 4, SF 3Backing SF is torturous. Just... why do I have money on (pauses to look up name) J. Sanchez? God. Dammit dammit dammit. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Pit 2, LAD 2 Dodgers still threatening in the bottom of the fifthWhy, again, do I have money on Pittsburgh and (pauses to look up name) Zach fucking Duke? Link to post Share on other sites
timwakefield 68 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 You make your bets online? And also, do you do this as a job the way some of us play cards as a job? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 At this point, my hopes for a break-even night are pinned squarely on:Molina, Aurilia, Castillo, Ortmeir, and Bocock. I am going to be sick.Also, Kuroda -- LA's starter -- doubled in that tying run for the Dodgers. Link to post Share on other sites
chgocubs99 0 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Pit 2, LAD 2 Dodgers still threatening in the bottom of the fifthWhy, again, do I have money on Pittsburgh and (pauses to look up name) Zach fucking Duke?Zach Duke is pretty good, FYI Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 You make your bets online? And also, do you do this as a job the way some of us play cards as a job?Yes to the first. And I do this as a job the way I used to play cards as a "job" when I had a real job already and decided I wanted a challenge and some extra money. So, you know, serious effort and an expectation of long-term profit, but no RELIANCE on said profit. And, also, it makes me crazy.Wang Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Zach Duke is pretty good, FYIYeah, he was great last year with his 41K, 25BB, and 14 HR allowed in 107IP. Not to mention the ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY HITS. I knew what I was getting into, though. Also, I'm on a pitcher, Grienke, who had to leave the team last year because he was having anxiety attacks...Wang Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 I'm unhappy that I pushed on the over in the Texas-Anaheim game.. So many stranded runners esp in the 8th. Link to post Share on other sites
chgocubs99 0 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Yeah, he was great last year with his 41K, 25BB, and 14 HR allowed in 107IP. Not to mention the ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY HITS. I knew what I was getting into, though. Also, I'm on a pitcher, Grienke, who had to leave the team last year because he was having anxiety attacks...WangOh, I guess I was thinking of someone else. Don't the Pirates have (or used to have) a high strikeout ratio left handed pitcher? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 I'm unhappy that I pushed on the over in the Texas-Anaheim game.. So many stranded runners esp in the 8th.Yeah, I think MLB totals are probably tough to beat, but I don't know. Jennings and Santana both fucking suck hard fucking balls. I had a lean towards Texas there, and passed, so I was rooting against my lean. I also leaned Boston +130 vs. Indiana and Westbrook, and passed because of where the money was coming in, and flipped when I saw Boston came back from 3 down to win.Pittsburgh takes the lead only to give one back, and -- knowing Zach Duke -- then some. KC extends to 4-1. Luckily I get to fade Washburn at least 20 more times this year. At this point, if I can escape with a KC win, and losses in the Giants and Pirates games, I'll be able to maintain my sanity. 1-4 is a lot better than 0-5.(makes sign of the cross and looks skyward)Wang Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Clockwork: Dogers 4, Pirates 3 Still threatening Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Tonight I was also on Toronto -124 at Balt LOSSOak-WSox UNDER 9 WINAriz-SF OVER 7.5 pendingand KC-SEA UNDER 8 pendingsorry to take over your thread..I like totals when I have enough information. I really liked the under in Chicago because I know the Sox tend to struggle against pitchers they have never faced and Buehrle is usually one to help keep it under the total.Go Royals... and Greinke is throwing another great game. Link to post Share on other sites
SuitedAces21 2,722 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 MLB games are hard to handicap. There is so much variation in daily performance I am wondering if a longterm worthwhile profit is realistic.Or am I an idiot? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Tonight I was also on Toronto -124 at Balt LOSSOak-WSox UNDER 9 WINAriz-SF OVER 7.5 pendingand KC-SEA UNDER 8 pendingsorry to take over your thread..I like totals when I have enough information. I really liked the under in Chicago because I know the Sox tend to struggle against pitchers they have never faced and Buehrle is usually one to help keep it under the total.Go Royals... and Greinke is throwing another great game.Buehrle fucking sucks. I am so glad he pitched well tonight, because I am going to drill his ass all year. I leaned Baltimore today, too, and didn't get to put the bet in because I forgot someone's birthday. I am running the worst today.Rowand doubles to lead off the inning, and Durham immediately lines into a DP. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 MLB games are hard to handicap. There is so much variation in daily performance I am wondering if a longterm worthwhile profit is realistic.Or am I an idiot?There's a lot of variance, and MLB is probably my worst sport, but if a team is undervalued, there's value to be found there regardless of variance. Variance is just unluckiness. That being said, I might not be able to beat MLB Link to post Share on other sites
Ouch-8s 4 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 MLB games are hard to handicap. There is so much variation in daily performance I am wondering if a longterm worthwhile profit is realistic.Or am I an idiot?I don't see why one has to rule out the other. Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 MLB games are hard to handicap. There is so much variation in daily performance I am wondering if a longterm worthwhile profit is realistic.Or am I an idiot?Yeah definitely can be, but I find it easier than other sports. I've read a lot of places that people are the most profitable in baseball, but obviously that depends on a lot of things. I just hate when the closer blows it for a team that I was on.Also, it's such a long season so it leaves plenty of time to pick and choose the best spots and plays. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Yeah definitely can be, but I find it easier than other sports. I've read a lot of places that people are the most profitable in baseball, but obviously that depends on a lot of things. I just hate when the closer blows it for a team that I was on.Also, it's such a long season so it leaves plenty of time to pick and choose the best spots and plays. Blown 5-run leads are... significantly worse than blown saves. Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Buehrle fucking sucks. I am so glad he pitched well tonight, because I am going to drill his ass all year. I leaned Baltimore today, too, and didn't get to put the bet in because I forgot someone's birthday. I am running the worst today.Rowand doubles to lead off the inning, and Durham immediately lines into a DP.There was no way he should have been such a huge favorite today. I'll give you that... He definitely needs a lot of help from his fielders to do well, but when he's pitching I usually look for it to go under. And he can give you six solid innings almost every outing. Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Blown 5-run leads are... significantly worse than blown saves.True.. unless the blown 5-run lead is a blown save Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 There was no way he should have been such a huge favorite today. I'll give you that... He definitely needs a lot of help from his fielders to do well, but when he's pitching I usually look for it to go under. And he can give you six solid innings almost every outing.Why? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Dear Jason Bay:****ing die.Regards,Wang Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Why?Mainly because he's normally near the top when it comes to quality starts. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Mainly because he's normally near the top when it comes to quality starts.No offense, but that logic doesn't work Link to post Share on other sites
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