AKProdigy 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Table was pretty loose passive preflop... wasn't really paying too much attention other than that.small sample size but:UTG is 6/0/1 through 17SB is 71/0/0.1 through 17PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)MP ($59.35)Button ($28.15)SB ($19.60)Hero ($53)UTG ($26.60)Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 , 8 . UTG raises to $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.50.Flop: ($4) Q , J , T (4 players)SB checks, Hero bets $3, UTG raises to $11.5, Button folds, SB raises to $18.6, Hero?Snap call? Link to post Share on other sites
ROBBBIGG 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 If UTG doesn't have AK/a set it's likely KQ diamonds vs 2 pair if opponents aren't insane Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 UTG is 6/0/1 through 17SB is 71/0/0.1 through 17 OK, I never fold here in real time, but if their aggression factors are for real and I interpret them correctly, then we need to fold. Link to post Share on other sites
Naismith 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 OK, I never fold here in real time, but if their aggression factors are for real and I interpret them correctly, then we need to fold.Totally with you on this. On paper, I look at this and say that even if we're good, we're dodging most of the deck and a lot of times we're not good.While it's happening, I go, "I CALL I GOT THE NUTSish EAT THAT YOU TWO GOT TRAPPED!" Link to post Share on other sites
AKProdigy 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 OK, I never fold here in real time, but if their aggression factors are for real and I interpret them correctly, then we need to fold.To be fair, the UTG has played one hand, so his aggression factor is irrelevant, and the other player is loose passive who's committed to going all in if he calls, so he shoved. I almost didn't want to include the aggression factors because I really don't think you can analyze this hand based on "low aggression factors means they have the goods" since the sample size is minimal and the stack sizes.I'm actually interested on the hand ranges you'd put both of them on. Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteSpade 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 OK, I never fold here in real time, but if their aggression factors are for real and I interpret them correctly, then we need to fold.17 hands is nothing at this point. I don't think you can look at aggression factor this early. I'm a donkey so I prob push to their shorter stacks and hope to be against an utg set and SB's two pair or draw. Link to post Share on other sites
drcossack 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 To be fair, the UTG has played one hand, so his aggression factor is irrelevant, and the other player is loose passive who's committed to going all in if he calls, so he shoved. I almost didn't want to include the aggression factors because I really don't think you can analyze this hand based on "low aggression factors means they have the goods" since the sample size is minimal and the stack sizes.I'm actually interested on the hand ranges you'd put both of them on.$50 NL?It's not AK; he'd have re-raised preflop.I get the feeling that he has 98 diamonds and he's freerolling. KQ diamonds also comes to mind.I ship it in, puke if he actually does have AK, and hope the board gives us a chop. Link to post Share on other sites
AKProdigy 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 $50 NL?It's not AK; he'd have re-raised preflop.I get the feeling that he has 98 diamonds and he's freerolling. KQ diamonds also comes to mind.I ship it in, puke if he actually does have AK, and hope the board gives us a chop.It could be AK. His range could be anything preflop... he's limped into several pots and hasn't raised one. He's your typical loose passive player preflop. Link to post Share on other sites
Naismith 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 It could be AK. His range could be anything preflop... he's limped into several pots and hasn't raised one. He's your typical loose passive player preflop.Also, we don't have the second nuts here. We're not just losing to AK. Link to post Share on other sites
AKProdigy 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 Also, we don't have the second nuts here. We're not just losing to AK.Agreed, but it's only part of one of their ranges. My thinking was something like this on the spot:a ) I'm dominated by a straight, but even if I lose to UTG, as long as I'm ahead of SB on the river, its a breakeven call (neglecting EV, just saying win/loss on river)b ) If their both drawing, they take away each other's outs (i.e., sets, 2P, maybe FD (unlikely))c ) I'm inclined to think AK could possibly be a large part of SB's range, except TT+ is also likely here as well. Link to post Share on other sites
tskillz187 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 They have 50bb stacks or less, this is a tell that they suck. I don't care what their aggro factor is, their range is wider than AK and Kxdd, I shove here pretty happily. Link to post Share on other sites
LJB723 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 These mutants love to play with crap like K9 too. I call and hate myself in the morning. Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Agreed, but it's only part of one of their ranges. My thinking was something like this on the spot:a ) I'm dominated by a straight, but even if I lose to UTG, as long as I'm ahead of SB on the river, its a breakeven call (neglecting EV, just saying win/loss on river)b ) If they're both drawing, they take away each other's outs (i.e., sets, 2P, maybe FD (unlikely))c ) I'm inclined to think AK could possibly be a large part of SB's range, except TT+ is also likely here as well.If we're behind, we have no way to suck out. If we're ahead, it ain't by much.If only one of them is ahead, we're not making more than we lose. Link to post Share on other sites
AimHigher 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I would have snap called while playing, but if I play around in sharkscope with ranges I think are reasonable we need about 3:1 to make a break even call.I wouldn't worry too much about SB except for the times he shows up with K9, there are way more combinations of combidraws and two purrs he is showing up with if he is playing 70 something % about his hands. UTG is the d00d whose range is crushing us.We gots to fold, yo! Link to post Share on other sites
No_Neck 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 These mutants love to play with crap like K9 too.that really made laugh out loud! Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Totally with you on this. On paper, I look at this and say that even if we're good, we're dodging most of the deck and a lot of times we're not good.While it's happening, I go, "I CALL I GOT THE NUTSish EAT THAT YOU TWO GOT TRAPPED!"I think I'm good with this Link to post Share on other sites
ROBBBIGG 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 UTG raised preflop, everyone called. Link to post Share on other sites
AKProdigy 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 I would have snap called while playing, but if I play around in sharkscope with ranges I think are reasonable we need about 3:1 to make a break even call.I wouldn't worry too much about SB except for the times he shows up with K9, there are way more combinations of combidraws and two purrs he is showing up with if he is playing 70 something % about his hands. UTG is the d00d whose range is crushing us.We gots to fold, yo!I kind of disagree. What range do you put him on? I think we're ahead of his range. I think he turns up AK much less than a set or overpair or even TPTK. It's the combined probability that one of them has the straight that makes this a tough call. Link to post Share on other sites
AimHigher 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I kind of disagree. What range do you put him on? I think we're ahead of his range. I think he turns up AK much less than a set or overpair or even TPTK. It's the combined probability that one of them has the straight that makes this a tough call.UTG?Before the flop, something like:KQ, AJ - AK, TT+After the flop, something like:TT - AA, AK. We have 39% equity against that range. If you want to get more liberal and throw AQ and KQ in there then we are still flipping with his range. Link to post Share on other sites
AKProdigy 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 UTG?Before the flop, something like:KQ, AJ - AK, TT+After the flop, something like:TT - AA, AK. We have 39% equity against that range. If you want to get more liberal and throw AQ and KQ in there then we are still flipping with his range.Your right, I had him on a range of TT+,AQ+ and hes about a 52-48 favourite (I thought i was a slight fav at 55-45), and a slight underdog if you throw in KQ in there as well. As i mentioned earlier though, I think his outs are taken away by SB, and if you put in a range for SB (basically a lot of combinations of face cards, plus TT+) SB's equity drops a lot, enough for me to make a call. I don't know, I think either way its marginal. As mtdesmoines mentioned, if we're behind we have no outs which is a huge factor. Link to post Share on other sites
AimHigher 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Your right, I had him on a range of TT+,AQ+ and hes about a 52-48 favourite (I thought i was a slight fav at 55-45), and a slight underdog if you throw in KQ in there as well. As i mentioned earlier though, I think his outs are taken away by SB, and if you put in a range for SB (basically a lot of combinations of face cards, plus TT+) SB's equity drops a lot, enough for me to make a call. I don't know, I think either way its marginal. As mtdesmoines mentioned, if we're behind we have no outs which is a huge factor.How do we take our equity vs UTG and the equity vs SB and work out if we have sufficient pot odds to call? The split pot is what is confusing me. Link to post Share on other sites
AKProdigy 0 Posted April 6, 2008 Author Share Posted April 6, 2008 How do we take our equity vs UTG and the equity vs SB and work out if we have sufficient pot odds to call? The split pot is what is confusing me.To make it simple:Player 1 - 50% equityPlayer 2 - 30% equityPlayer 3 - 20% equityPlayer 1 has 5$ invested (and covers)Player 2 goes all in for $20Player 3 goes all in for $40So a call would mean that his return = [(20*3)*(0.5)] (MAIN POT) + [(40-20)*2*(0.5/(0.5+0.2))] (SIDE POT) ~ 57-58 (too lazy to use a calc)Edit: Actually that's not exactly correct, because your assuming that the 2nd best hand has the same equity ranges, but best method of estimation without knowing the exact hand Link to post Share on other sites
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