Russell_Gammon 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 can someone give me a proper answer to the following hypothetical situation:final table of a tournament, 6 players left, payoffs as follows: 1st-$20m, 2nd-$10m, 3rd-$5m, 4th-$3m, 5th-$2m, 6th-$1m.Each player starts the hand with exactly 50xBB, you are in the BB.All 5 other players shove to you, you are holding Aces. Action?? Link to post Share on other sites
Vtlaxer09 4 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Ban. FYP Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 FYP?FYP. Link to post Share on other sites
FARGOpokerND 22 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 hahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahaahaaahahahahahahaaaa*DEEEEEEP BREATH*HAHAHAHAHHAHHHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHHHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHAAAAHAAAAAAhaaaaaaaaaahaa Link to post Share on other sites
Vtlaxer09 4 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 FYP.you just blew my mind. Link to post Share on other sites
ROBBBIGG 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 fold, but this q has been asked a lot before Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 If you call and win you win $20m.You will win about 50% of the time.So if you run the situation 6 times you will win $60m.If you fold, you assume that you get second place for $10m.If you run it 6 times, you get $60m.It may sound odd but this situation might be closer than you think. Link to post Share on other sites
BeaverStyle 1 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I don't fancy folding the nuts... not one bit! Link to post Share on other sites
Vtlaxer09 4 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 fold, but this q has been asked a lot beforewhy would you ever fold here?Assuming we're playing against decent opponents, we can expect their range to be pretty decentIf the holdings are AsAc, KhQh, AdKd, Ah10h, QcQs-you will win 67.27%If the holdings are AsAc, TT, JJ, QQ, KK you are favored 44% of the time.If the holdings are sharing cards even more like.. AsAc, AhKh, QdQs, AdKd, JcJh then you are favored 48.64%. NEVER FOLD AA unless you're in a satty. Link to post Share on other sites
FARGOpokerND 22 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 If you call and win you win $20m.You will win about 50% of the time.So if you run the situation 6 times you will win $60m.If you fold, you assume that you get second place for $10m.If you run it 6 times, you get $60m.It may sound odd but this situation might be closer than you think.You are actually off a bit i think.I went to cardplayer's odds calculator.It only fits 5 hands, so first I inputted AA vs KK QQ JJ TT and AA was only 44% to win.Then I inputted it against KQ JT 98 76. It was 36% chance to win. Versus 5 random hands, there is no way it would be 50% in the long run. I'm sure pokerstove could figure it out...But to get back on topic. This is the dumbest question in the world to begin with and warrants nothing but sarcastic answers and ban comments. Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Ban! FYP!FYP Link to post Share on other sites
cdipierr 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Hate this question, but assuming you call and lose, and there are no chops, you still win $4.2m So basically by calling, your expected value = .5*20m + .5*4.2 = $14.2m This is better than 2nd place money. I think you call. Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 You are actually pretty far off.I went to cardplayer's odds calculator.It only fits 5 hands, so first I inputted AA vs KK QQ JJ TT and AA was only 44% to win.Then I inputted it against KQ JT 98 76. It was 36% chance to win. Versus 5 random hands, there is no way it would be 50%. I'm sure pokerstove could figure it out...But to get back on topic. This is the dumbest question in the world to begin with and warrants nothing but sarcastic answers and ban comments.I acctualy used pokerstove to get 50% equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 50.773% 50.38% 00.39% 286409952 2243952.00 { AA }Hand 1: 00.091% 00.00% 00.09% 15552 503856.00 { KK }Hand 2: 20.651% 20.56% 00.09% 116900928 503856.00 { QQ }Hand 3: 08.130% 07.27% 00.86% 41348448 4874832.00 { AKs }Hand 4: 01.746% 00.89% 00.86% 5051376 4874832.00 { AKo }Hand 5: 18.608% 18.52% 00.09% 105287472 503856.00 { JJ }And if you're saying out equity in general is less than 50%, then it is even more of a case to fold. Again 5 random hands it's acctually 49%.Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 48.925% 55.93% 00.47% 1730302 14548.17 { AA }Hand 1: 10.216% 11.03% 00.74% 341341 23000.08 { random }Hand 2: 10.191% 11.00% 00.74% 340432 23014.33 { random }Hand 3: 10.220% 11.03% 00.75% 341159 23322.42 { random }Hand 4: 10.254% 11.08% 00.74% 342666 23019.42 { random }Hand 5: 10.194% 11.01% 00.74% 340549 23001.58 { random }Something i missed of in the first analysis is how much we pocket if we call and lose, seeing as barring ties there'll be 5 players eliminated in the same spot, in this case does the 6th-2nd prize money get equally spread around? Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I'm sad this is generating actual discussion.Assuming you will never see a chopped pot:If you fold, you are guaranteed 10 and sometimes (say, 1/5) you overcome the chip defecit and win. So, you're really netting like 12 maybe, but 10 is guaranteed.If you call, (you pretty much have to assume that you're gonna be against a mix of pocket pairs, AK/AQ and then a random hand or two) if you win 50% of the time and get 2nd 40% or more, I'm pretty sure you're gonna net more than 12.Don't fold.Did I say Ban? Link to post Share on other sites
FARGOpokerND 22 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Something i missed of in the first analysis is how much we pocket if we call and lose, seeing as barring ties there'll be 5 players eliminated in the same spot, in this case does the 6th-2nd prize money get equally spread around?Yes. If they all start out the same in chips, it gets spread evenly. Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Assuming we're 50% equity if we call our equity when calling is $12.1m.Assuming there are no ties when we fold, then our EV is going to be somewhere over $10m, the over bit depending on how big a HU advantage you have.So yeh, it's a call. Link to post Share on other sites
RhinestoneCowboy 2 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 This is a stupid thread that has a situation that will never happen. That being said:That is a lot of money on the table. I fold and guarantee myself some extra $$$. People are lying to themselves if they think this is a 100% call. Link to post Share on other sites
Vandees 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 You fold. You don't even have to look at your hand. Why would you? I'd fold w/out looking and figure out how to spend my $6.5M after taxes.If you were in a 6 person game, all even in chips, and you could be guaranteed 2nd, how could you call? I don't understand the call comments. I really dont. Link to post Share on other sites
rogerwilco 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 You fold. You don't even have to look at your hand. Why would you? I'd fold w/out looking and figure out how to spend my $6.5M after taxes.If you were in a 6 person game, all even in chips, and you could be guaranteed 2nd, how could you call? I don't understand the call comments. I really dont.Nit. Link to post Share on other sites
acesup85 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 I would call every single time just for the fact that you have AA and are freerolling for the 20m. The worst thing that could happen is that 2 guys chop the pot. In that case you would get paid a chop of 3rd through 6th. If only 1 person beats you then you make a little more. I don't see how you fold when you have the best hand unless you are in a tournament where you don't need to win and can coast to the prize to the point where it isn't worth the call to lose. Link to post Share on other sites
MyPlayIsRAB 0 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 fold, because if 5 people are allin first hand you can probably outplay the person who wins the pot, even if youre down 5-1 in chips hu Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 fold, because if 5 people are allin first hand you can probably outplay the person who wins the pot, even if youre down 5-1 in chips hu Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 Is this on absolute? Cause there I call.On PokerStars I foldOn Fulltilt I flip a coinLive I call and slow rollHome game I hit the dealer for messing with the deckPlay money? I go to cardplayer and get the correct odds. Link to post Share on other sites
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