HighwayStar 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 How big of a mistake is not betting this river? Only 20 hands with him I haven't seen anything abnormal yet.PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comPreflop: Hero is BB with , 4 folds, SB raises, Hero callsFlop: (4 SB) , , (2 players)SB bets, Hero raises, SB callsTurn: (4 BB) (2 players)SB checks, Hero bets, SB callsRiver: (6 BB) (2 players)SB checks, Hero checksTotal pot: $24 (6 BB) | Rake: $1I bet this river against a lot of opponents. Some people are dying to CR you there, sometimes with air too, but sometimes with the nuts. I guess I'm willing to put 2 bets in against plenty of people too. So yea I bet there a lot.I guess I'm sometimes worried about him having a better 9 but bleh.Happy Christmas/whatever else for Political Correctness to you all. Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 I continue to refuse to practice winning quitting habits. It costs me tons of money, but it also ruined my Christmas Eve, basically. New Year's resolution, anyway. Link to post Share on other sites
Painter567 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Merry Christmas LHE'ers! Link to post Share on other sites
Mattnxtc 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Merry Christmas all. Havent been around in a while because I screwed up, but slowly grinding my way back fortunately. Once I get a good infusion of RB I will be back at limit though. Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Take a shot, Matty? Good luck on the rebuild. Link to post Share on other sites
Flushgarden 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Position + the best starting hand + aggression = winning 10% of the time Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Position + the best starting hand + aggression = winning 10% of the timeGetting 11:1? Link to post Share on other sites
Flushgarden 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Getting 11:1?I'm gonna smoke 11:1 bowls right now. Link to post Share on other sites
Flushgarden 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Spew?Villain is 37/11/1.2 over 80 hands.PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comPreflop: Hero is BB with , 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checksFlop: (3.33333 SB) , , (3 players)Hero bets, 1 fold, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button callsTurn: (4.66667 BB) (2 players)Hero bets, Button callsRiver: (6.66667 BB) (2 players)Hero bets, Button callsTotal pot: $52 (8.66667 BB) | Rake: $2Results:Button had , (two pair, nines and fives).Hero had , (one pair, fives).Outcome: Button won $50 Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Spew?PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comPreflop: Hero is BB with , 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checksFlop: (3.33333 SB) , , (3 players)Hero bets, 1 fold, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button callsTurn: (4.66667 BB) (2 players)Hero bets, Button callsRiver: (6.66667 BB) (2 players)Hero bets, Button callsTotal pot: $52 (8.66667 BB) | Rake: $2Results:Button had , (two pair, nines and fives).Hero had , (one pair, fives).Outcome: Button won $50im on the fence, its really close. Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 You're like 50/50 on the flop. You have like no fold equity, and your pot equity changes a ton on the turn, and you'll be OOP. Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 lets look at the hand up to point where the button raises the flop. you really don't think the button raises wide enough to 3 bet and blast most turns? Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 lets look at the hand up to point where the button raises the flop. you really don't think the button raises wide enough to 3 bet and blast most turns?I think it's a fine play. Assuming he's a typical, nonLAGgy player, though, he rarely has a hand that our pair outs are good against, and he's never folding any of those hands. From a pure This Hand Only Value standpoint, calling is probably a better play. But I jam so much here that I think it's probably a jam. Just pointing out some factors. Link to post Share on other sites
tuckermitchell 1 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 You're like 50/50 on the flop. You have like no fold equity, and your pot equity changes a ton on the turn, and you'll be OOP.I'm not gonna lie, I feel like I have totally been wrong in what I thought FE and PE were. Can someone maybe break this down to me in retard so that I can see if I was wrong or right? Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 I'm not gonna lie, I feel like I have totally been wrong in what I thought FE and PE were. Can someone maybe break this down to me in retard so that I can see if I was wrong or right?What the terms mean in general or what the numbers are in this particular hand? Link to post Share on other sites
tuckermitchell 1 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 What the terms mean in general or what the numbers are in this particular hand?well, what the numbers in this particular hand would go a long way to telling me what the terms meant, but both would probably help. Also Dutch, keep in mind I am super high right now.also x2... "Girl you gotta 10 piece baby don't be stingy." I ****ing hate how catchy that damn commercial is. Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 I guess the actual definition varies a bit from person to person, but I would say that your pot equity is the value of the pot the is statistically "yours." If you have 65h vs. KK on Ks-4h-3h, you have better than 40% equity, and jamming is negative pure value, cards face up. If it's 3-way, and the other guy has AA, you still have almost the exact same equity, but each bet you put in that's matched in both spots only represents 33.333% of the pot, and since your share of the pot is better than 40%, jamming is pure equity profit.Fold equity is the value your hand earns by folding out better hands. If the pot is 5BB, your river bluff has to fold him out 1 in 5 times to show a profit. Thus if your FE is 20% (him folding 20% of his range), you need the pot to lay you 5:1 to make betting break-even. Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 fold equity is a kind of ambiguous term. it is related to the likeliness that your opponent will fold to your bet. if you see numbers given for this (he folds 20% of the time) they are educated guesses.in the hand posted before the term isn't numerical at all, its meant more like "he isn't going to fold to your turn and river bets enough to make them profitable as bluffs". your equity in the pot is the average of the equity between your hand and each of the hands in your opponents range. you can get very crazy analyzing lhe hands in this fashion. figuring his range on each street, your equity against it, what you should do, then consider his tendencies, what future cards might fall, how they can effect your equity and/or your opponents actions.... you actually can quantize all of this with just a couple of "educated guesses" (mostly about their range) and do lots of long drawn out crazy algebra. but really if you play enough poker and think long and hard enough about it you will find yourself intuitively "feeling" these things. of course actually doing the math on these things never hurt anybody either. for a great example of this go look at the thread in the lhe section started by tactical bear called "calculating bluff equity and breakeven points". Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Wang's thread was, I recall, more for semi-bluffing (edit: which is exactly what we were talking about, but I was talking about regular bluffing, for some reason), but it's definitely good to understand that. Edit: That thread will show you why if we literally have no FE (i.e. he never folds turn or river), it's a slightly less profitable option to jam this flop and lead the turn (and the river, if he just calls the turn), in a vacuum.Anti is correct in that practically speaking, your equity is actually against his estimated range, not his exact hand, which you really can't guess at like ever.I'm not sure if I'm making sense. I think I am, but I'm very tired. Link to post Share on other sites
mhoward29 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Merry Christmas everyone. Family time all day today so no poker! Im kind of excited about that after yesterday. Then traveling starting tomorrow morning and wont be back til Sunday night. Happy holidays to you and yours. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 even >+ 12 > -60 > even > -25 > +15 > + 10 to finish 1k hands. Tables a bit too solid at the end - too many 27/16/2s. Hopeuflly there'll be an influx of atms later.My entire house is asleep as per usual for christmas Link to post Share on other sites
tuckermitchell 1 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 I guess the actual definition varies a bit from person to person, but I would say that your pot equity is the value of the pot the is statistically "yours." If you have 65h vs. KK on Ks-4h-3h, you have better than 40% equity, and jamming is negative pure value, cards face up. If it's 3-way, and the other guy has AA, you still have almost the exact same equity, but each bet you put in that's matched in both spots only represents 33.333% of the pot, and since your share of the pot is better than 40%, jamming is pure equity profit.Fold equity is the value your hand earns by folding out better hands. If the pot is 5BB, your river bluff has to fold him out 1 in 5 times to show a profit. Thus if your FE is 20% (him folding 20% of his range), you need the pot to lay you 5:1 to make betting break-even. fold equity is a kind of ambiguous term. it is related to the likeliness that your opponent will fold to your bet. if you see numbers given for this (he folds 20% of the time) they are educated guesses.in the hand posted before the term isn't numerical at all, its meant more like "he isn't going to fold to your turn and river bets enough to make them profitable as bluffs". your equity in the pot is the average of the equity between your hand and each of the hands in your opponents range. you can get very crazy analyzing lhe hands in this fashion. figuring his range on each street, your equity against it, what you should do, then consider his tendencies, what future cards might fall, how they can effect your equity and/or your opponents actions.... you actually can quantize all of this with just a couple of "educated guesses" (mostly about their range) and do lots of long drawn out crazy algebra. but really if you play enough poker and think long and hard enough about it you will find yourself intuitively "feeling" these things. of course actually doing the math on these things never hurt anybody either. for a great example of this go look at the thread in the lhe section started by tactical bear called "calculating bluff equity and breakeven points".I'm not gonna lie to you folks, I CANNOT believe you guys are doing all these kind of math equations when you are playing in every hand on every street. I understand FE somewhat for Unlimited Hold Them applications but it never seemed really appropriate in terms of LHE because of the odds vs a single bet in a LHE hand. Also, I always thought I was more from the math/perfect play type group of poker players and I am starting to realize that while I understand the math in outs and other simple things, I'll probably never ever get to this point in my realtime math analysis of a hand. It's not that I'm not going to try to get here, I just don't think this is something that will be an effective way for me to play. The more I read and the more that I study the less and less I feel like I'm any good. It really gets me twisted too considering my winrate is pretty decent up to 1/2. Meh who knows, I'm gonna try to get in about 2.5K hands today of .25/.50 and see where that gets me.Merry whatever the **** you're celebrating today guys. Oh, and go gogogogogogogo Celtics. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Ufff, I just won a seat in hyper turbo to the $55 80k and it's too late to unregister.Guess I'll be playing that instead. Link to post Share on other sites
Flushgarden 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 I'm not gonna lie to you folks, I CANNOT believe you guys are doing all these kind of math equations when you are playing in every hand on every street. I understand FE somewhat for Unlimited Hold Them applications but it never seemed really appropriate in terms of LHE because of the odds vs a single bet in a LHE hand. Also, I always thought I was more from the math/perfect play type group of poker players and I am starting to realize that while I understand the math in outs and other simple things, I'll probably never ever get to this point in my realtime math analysis of a hand. It's not that I'm not going to try to get here, I just don't think this is something that will be an effective way for me to play. The more I read and the more that I study the less and less I feel like I'm any good. It really gets me twisted too considering my winrate is pretty decent up to 1/2. Meh who knows, I'm gonna try to get in about 2.5K hands today of .25/.50 and see where that gets me.Merry whatever the **** you're celebrating today guys. Oh, and go gogogogogogogo Celtics.I dont think anybody does precise math while their in a hand, in fact its not really possible because you cant really put somebody on a specific hand. It just takes a lot of time analyzing hands while you're not playing, and a lot of actual playing, and eventually you'll get a feel for where you're at equitywise most of the time...or at least enough so that you can make a profitable move a majority of the time.That hand I posted earlier was a bit of a spew I guess, but it might not always be against all opponents.And yes, go Celtics. Link to post Share on other sites
Flushgarden 0 Posted December 25, 2008 Share Posted December 25, 2008 Flushgarden's (filling in for Bob) feel good hand of the day...because I've never seen this before and I came out on the good end of it.PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comPreflop: Hero is BB with , :asUTG calls, MP raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP caps, Hero calls, UTG callsFlop: (12.5 SB) , , (3 players)Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP caps, Hero calls, UTG callsTurn: (12.25 BB) (3 players)Hero bets, UTG calls, MP callsRiver: (15.25 BB) (3 players)Hero checks, UTG bets, MP calls, Hero callsTotal pot: $73 (18.25 BB) | Rake: $3Results:Hero had , (two pair, Aces and nines).UTG had , (two pair, Kings and nines).MP had , (two pair, Kings and nines).Outcome: Hero won $70 Link to post Share on other sites
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