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Crazy Overbets On Action Boards


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Just need a quick sanity check - I ran into this hand today, and other ones in the past -- 2 pair on the board, or some other similar type hand (4 or 5 card straight on board, etc).Is there ever a situation where CO in this situation doesn't have the nuts? And even if he doesn't, it looks like a giant bluff, but it is not worth our while to protect our $15 or so n the pot to at best chop, correct?Meh, converter is down and the other one screwed up, so I will edit it and hope to not screw up myself:Seat 2 - Button ($31 in chips)Seat 3 - Hero ($100.50 in chips)Seat 5 - BB ($116.80 in chips)Seat 6 - UTG ($179.90 in chips) Seat 1 - CO ($185.65 in chips)Hero - Posts small blind $0.50SB - Posts big blind $1*** POCKET CARDS ***Dealt to Hero [J :spade: 10 :spade:] UTG FoldCO - Calls $1Buton FoldHero - Calls $0.50BB - Checks*** FLOP *** [K :spade: 10 :diamond: 10 :club: ]Hero - ChecksBB - ChecksCO - Checks*** TURN *** [K :spade: 10 :diamond: 10 :club: ] [4 :diamond: ]Hero - Bets $3BB - Calls $3CO - Calls $3*** RIVER *** [K :spade: 10 :diamond: 10 :club: 4 :diamond: ] [4 :club: ]Hero - Bets $9BB - Calls $9CO - Raises $101 to $101Hero???

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I think you can fold here. The odds that he's doing this with 4x or any hand that you beat is REALLY REALLY remote. When you're right, you win half of the pot.So, in reality, you're basically calling $101 to win $20 if you're right and just dumping off $101 when you're wrong.

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Edit: wrong thread.What Acid said. You're asking the wrong question. It's not is this *Ever* not the nuts. It's do we make enough by calling to pay off the few times it is the nuts.

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I think the question should be, "is there any spot where you can fold JT, in a cash game?" The answer is absolutely no! Exactly two hands beat you, KK and 44. Put your money in. That foolish re-raise is what you're looking for, isn't it? Occasionally, they'll have KK or 44, but if that were the situation, don't you think their raise would be a little more enticing? Looking for value? If the CO has a ten, then you chop, everything else, you win...........it's easy....call.

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I think you can fold here. The odds that he's doing this with 4x or any hand that you beat is REALLY REALLY remote. When you're right, you win half of the pot.So, in reality, you're basically calling $101 to win $20 if you're right and just dumping off $101 when you're wrong.
I agree with this. and always work on this line.Edit: after looking this hand over, I think we're behind K,10 here. its a foldmy thinking for this stems from BB calling turn ad calling river.BB obviously doesnt hold anything strong. probably not even a 10. why wouldnt he re-pop river. So, my immediate reaction is BB held a K, but then since he called the river, on a board like that. its probably more likely BB has a 4. which eliminates 4,4 from villain.so if villain limps KK preflop..then i guess fold. ooops.. never mind.. C/O has K,10.. lol fooooold!! thats my new thought now. I feel strongly on him holding K,10
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Oh yeah, K10, I totally overlooked that! Completely, a possible hand. Nevertheless, I still think you should call. Unless you know the villain likes to overbet the nuts. The small value bet still applies to K10. The more I've thought about it, the more I think it's a chop, and he's trying to push you off.If you think it's a chop, and still fold, but are okay with that because it's "only fifteen bucks", then you've got a leak in your game. It's giving away money.

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I Agree with the folders...One of the biggest improvements to my game end of last year was to stop the losses resulting from my "Haha... it's a split pot. U no bluff me, man"-moves.Save the rake and (most of the time) some chips here.

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Oh yeah, K10, I totally overlooked that! Completely, a possible hand. Nevertheless, I still think you should call. Unless you know the villain likes to overbet the nuts. The small value bet still applies to K10. The more I've thought about it, the more I think it's a chop, and he's trying to push you off.If you think it's a chop, and still fold, but are okay with that because it's "only fifteen bucks", then you've got a leak in your game. It's giving away money.
Your mentality is backwards. The reward is very very small if we're right here yet the risk is very high. I would fold here if it were "only $15,000" that I stood to win if I was risking 5x as much to win it.
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What's ESPECIALLY telling about this hand is the checked flop. do u c y? I think this is a fold.
Yeah, this should be KK or mostly KT like all of the time here. If he had Tx, he's likely raising the turn with a bet and a call. If he had 44 and turned a set, the same thing probably happens.
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What's ESPECIALLY telling about this hand is the checked flop. do u c y? I think this is a fold.
Yeah, this should be KK or mostly KT like all of the time here. If he had Tx, he's likely raising the turn with a bet and a call. If he had 44 and turned a set, the same thing probably happens.
Are you guys high?This was an unraised pot.The flop check doesn't tell us a whole hell of a lot, imho.Btw, we should lead this flop.
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Btw, in order to figure out whether to call or fold here... compare the % he has us beat, the % we have him beat, and the % we chop... of the % we chop, half that dead money already in the pot is the overlay... if our expected return when comparing the times we win the full pot, and the times we lose the full pot, cannot be offset by the overlay, we need to fold.

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Your mentality is backwards. The reward is very very small if we're right here yet the risk is very high. I would fold here if it were "only $15,000" that I stood to win if I was risking 5x as much to win it.
How can you say that my mentality is backwards? You're folding to a 5x raise, if you stand to win??? That doesn't make sense, you're going to win!! Don't you want you're money in there with the winning hand? Even if it's a chop, you are still profiting. You only fold if you think you're hand isn't the best one.Now, I realize that I already said I think it's a chop, the more I thought about it. But, now I've stepped away, and come back to re-read. I definitely think that the hero's JT is best. I don't think he's got KT, at all. Frankly, I think the raise to $101 is a bluff. Maybe, maybe, the villian has a 4. Either way, the money should be in.You want the math? The pot odds are approx 2:3. So, if in this situation, you win 40% of the time, you will be breaking even. I don't know about you guys, but when I make a full house, I win waaayyyyyyy more than 40% of the showdowns. How often do you guys think he's got KK, 44 or KT?My money would be all-in.
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This is a standard fold. Really. I agree with Zach's assertion that we should've led the flop though. My money's on 44 or K10. He's doing this with a hand we beat less than 5% of the time here.

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