D-betting, Right Spot?

[HangukMiguk 8]

My table image was very loose at this point (in reality, I was just seeing a lot of good hands) I have also been c-betting half the time on the flop. Should I still be c-betting this?At the river, I'm not 100% sure I'm ahead, but I know if I check, he's going to bet an amount I can't call to see a showdown. Therefore, is this a smart spot to put in a defensive bet?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)Button (t1285)SB (t2815)BB (t1060)UTG (t1115)UTG+1 (t1440)MP1 (t1505)Hanguk (t2780)CO (t2045)Preflop: Hanguk is MP2 with 7 , 7 . 3 folds, Hanguk raises to t90, CO calls t90, Button calls t90, 2 folds.Flop: (t315) 5 , 9 , 2 (3 players)Hanguk checks, CO checks, Button bets t300, Hanguk calls t300, CO folds.Turn: (t915) Q (2 players)Hanguk checks, Button checks.River: (t915) 8 (2 players)Hanguk bets t330, Button calls t330.Final Pot: t1575

[jmbreslin 0]

On the flop either CB or check-fold. Check-calling 300 chips there with your 77 is terrible.And on a completely unrelated note, please change your avatar - it's just brutal to watch.

[outsider13 0]

I probably would have avoided this situation right from the start. This is still super early and raising a mid-low pocket pair in the 4.40 this far out of position is usually trouble. You'll get called down with anything and it's so hard to gauge where you are. I would usually limp with small pairs this far out. If I hit great, if not, I let it go. That's just the way I roll in these in the first 3 levels.As played, I would have lead out that flop. You being out of position really hurts you, so if you showed strength preflop, that might be your only chance to get this pot. Lead out 150-200 chips, if he calls, that's your cue to let it go.

[copernicus 0]

I'll open raise any pair from any position with deepish stacks, since low pairs generally are going to be set (with a bigger pot to take down) or fold, but you can pick up a signifcant number of pots unchallenged. The problem here is that you have to bet the flop. This isnt a C-bet (which is really meant as a bluff), its a value bet, because you are very likely to be ahead with that flop but its vulnerable and you want to keep control of the hand.If he just flats the flop you can fire again, because any non-ace is more likely than not to have missed his two overs.If he flats the turn then its a tough decision to fire again, depending a lot on stack sizes, the river card, and whether villain is a calling station or a solid player who may be justly cautious with 88,TT,JJ or trapping with a monster because youve shown a willingness to bet into him.

[Alex916F 0]

Even with loose image I am double barreling flop and turn. If homeboy is that stupid to get to the river with a worse hand his river bluff deserves to be rewarded (with you folding). Flop is just way to dry to c/c v. 2 opp. showing no strength. As played I like the D-bet on the river but I know ur rarely getting called with a worse hand. Peace

[Mercury69 3]

On the flop either CB or check-fold. Check-calling 300 chips there with your 77 is terrible.And on a completely unrelated note, please change your avatar - it's just brutal to watch.

I tend to agree, although I'd factor in a Check-Raise (I really like the flop and I'm guessing the Button is holding high cards and missed completely), even without much of a read on villain. Check-calling is just begging to be drawn out on. Per Harrington, you want ot get as much info on your opponents hand as early as possible so you can either win the most chips possible or lose the least amount possible.

[sactownjoey 0]

And on a completely unrelated note, please change your avatar - it's just brutal to watch.

Concur. I wouldn't have found it hard to watch until I had kids...On the hand itself, every card that comes of (that's not a 7), makes this a harder hand to play for me so I would have either b/f the flop and turn or c/r the flop and folded to significant strength.

[HangukMiguk 8]

Thanks for the info on the flop/turn.Before I show results, I want to touch on the second question. Forgetting the mistakes on the flop, and focusing on the river, considering I'm willing to believe he'll bet a big amount on the river, that will make my hand uncallable, when I still believe I have the best hand, is the defensive bet right?

[copernicus 0]

Concur. I wouldn't have found it hard to watch until I had kids...

geez, I dont like Phil Hellmuth much, but this is going too far.

[copernicus 0]

Thanks for the info on the flop/turn.Before I show results, I want to touch on the second question. Forgetting the mistakes on the flop, and focusing on the river, considering I'm willing to believe he'll bet a big amount on the river, that will make my hand uncallable, when I still believe I have the best hand, is the defensive bet right?

If you think you have the best hand then a big bet isnt uncallable..thats what inducing bluffs is all about.to answer your question you need to know how often he checks, how often he bluffs, how often he has a better hand, and how big a bet you expect him to make.

[HangukMiguk 8]

geez, I dont like Phil Hellmuth much, but this is going too far.

Well done.

If you think you have the best hand then a big bet isnt uncallable..thats what inducing bluffs is all about.to answer your question you need to know how often he checks, how often he bluffs, how often he has a better hand, and how big a bet you expect him to make.

I was expecting a pot size bet (900 of my remaining 2100) on the end.

[copernicus 0]

Well done.I was expecting a pot size bet (900 of my remaining 2100) on the end.

Okay, we know your defensive bet of 330 didnt result in a raise or a fold. Lets assume your hand is best 33% of the time and that he would bet you out 2/3 of the time that you would have checked and will still check 1/3 of the time.Your EV for the defensive bet is just 33% * 330 extra you win, 110.If you check and will always fold to his bet, then your EV is 1/3 *915* 1/3 or 103, a little less but you havent committed any extra chips for it so your variance goes down without the D bet.What if you check and will call his bet? Then your EV is the same 103 when he doesnt bet, but when he does bet pot=2/3*(1830*.333-915*.666)....ie no additional value. However, any time your hand has better than a 1/3 chance of winning you gain value over check/fold and you only need to raise that to 33.7% of the time you win to be better than a D bet, though again with greater variance.You can play around with your hand equity and his bet frequency but given his lack of aggression 33% is probably at the bottom of your hand equity. Ie if you have >33% equity and he is going to bet anything up to the pot, inducing a bluff is better than D betting is about the same as checking.

[MovingIn 0]

Open for 100, lead the flop, lead the turn if we get that far... and only your reads can help you decide how to play the river if you get that far. As played, I think button is playing our lack of postflop aggression, putting us on missed overs or something similarly weak.

[jmbreslin 0]

Concur. I wouldn't have found it hard to watch until I had kids...

Seriously. I could actually feel the horror that kid's parents must have felt at that moment.Thanks for changing it, much better to look at now. Is that Lacey Chabert? She's certainly blossomed nicely since Party of Five...

[HangukMiguk 8]

Seriously. I could actually feel the horror that kid's parents must have felt at that moment.Thanks for changing it, much better to look at now. Is that Lacey Chabert? She's certainly blossomed nicely since Party of Five...

I forgot to check back in on this thread, so I was reading the opinions on the dbet.Yes, that is Lacey Chabert. She is one of my three major celeb crushes right now, and for good reason obv.