Zach6668 513 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Ok, I get it, he plays each game as a 50/50 flip.So it's not exact science, but it's definitely a good start. Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 I wrote a computer program that randomly generates results for each remaining game. Then it tallies each team's position and repeats, millions of times. When the simulation "plays" a game it assumes each team has an equal chance of winning, with no regard for record, injuries, matchups, or streaks. To help flush out each teams highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for 1000 of the simulation runs. Here is an interactive chart that gives you a feel for how playing the season 10 million times sheds light on the possible finishing scenarios.The simulations make sense -- probably would be way to complicated to factor in trades, injuries, etc. And as one gets closer to the end of the year lower teams play the spoiler role, etc... anyways.I really don't get what he means to do with the forced wins/loses though. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 I think it means that he gives the teams a chance to run the table, or lose every game, something that might not always happen over a 10 M sample? Dunno. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 with that win over Florida we went from under 2% to 5.9%. I love these math wizards.http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern...MapleLeafs.html wow i love this site...amazing stuff Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 Anyone interested in giving me odds on a Dallas-Ottawa last longer in the playoffs bet? I'll take Ottawa. Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Anyone interested in giving me odds on a Dallas-Ottawa last longer in the playoffs bet? I'll take Ottawa.Odds? Should be a straight up bet, don't ya think? I'll take Dallas... Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 I'll do even money, what about our habs-dallas. Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 I'll do even money, what about our habs-dallas.I'll take Dallas.. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 I want Toronto. Link to post Share on other sites
thehidden 0 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Leafs to make the playoffs what kind of odds you giving me on this one. Odds are 5% they make it which equates to 20-1 I willing to take much lower give me the odds and the dollar amount. This should be free money for you but I just have a stupid hunch, just like the Colorodo Rockies last year in baseball.These Armenians in Toronto love to throw away money on the Leafs.i'll give you 4:1 on 25 if you take the leafs and I get they don't Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 I have one for you who last longer in the playoffs I want Dallas you can take your beloved Habs. It goes by round than games. IE both go into second round Dallas loses in 6 Montreal loses in 7 games, Montreal wins the bet.Gruven Ive been on Dallas as well, looks like were attempting some dp on DM Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Gruven Ive been on Dallas as well, looks like were attempting some dp on DMyou know whats funny? As quick as I am to drop a wager if I think I've got the high side, DM and I have never bet against each other. Generally speaking, he's a sharp hockey guy and we rarely see things from opposite sides.. Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 you know whats funny? As quick as I am to drop a wager if I think I've got the high side, DM and I have never bet against each other. Generally speaking, he's a sharp hockey guy and we rarely see things from opposite sides..Ya this prick doesn't bet with his heart. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted March 4, 2008 Author Share Posted March 4, 2008 Original post updated to include new bet and TSN predicted wins. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Original post updated to include new bet and TSN predicted wins.The monster bet I think is a lock , no? Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 lol @ monster.bet Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted March 4, 2008 Author Share Posted March 4, 2008 The monster bet I think is a lock , no?Honestly I'm not sure. I haven't checked since last update but I don't recall any of my players (White, Pronger and Brind'Amour are injured) going on a run. I would assume you still have a nice lead. I'll try to update in next day or so. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted March 10, 2008 Author Share Posted March 10, 2008 Date: September 13th, 2007Wager: I say my FCP Yahoo fantasy hockey team (Johnson + Johnson) will finish ahead of Serge's team (Mustangs).With: SergeAmount: $20.00Odds: evenOutcome: SHIP IT BOGO!*Final Score:Johnson and Johnson 410Mustangs 376*actually just add it to the total I'll pick up in September. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted March 10, 2008 Share Posted March 10, 2008 Date: September 13th, 2007Wager: I say my FCP Yahoo fantasy hockey team (Johnson + Johnson) will finish ahead of Serge's team (Mustangs).With: SergeAmount: $20.00Odds: evenOutcome: SHIP IT BOGO!*Final Score:Johnson and Johnson 410Mustangs 376*actually just add it to the total I'll pick up in September. You might not be picking up much...And might be actually shipping me money this year.. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted March 10, 2008 Author Share Posted March 10, 2008 You might not be picking up much...And might be actually shipping me money this year..You may be right, my big cash ins will be in 3 years and 5 years. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Updated to include latest bet with Serge and the following update:Date: October 5th, 2006Wager: Canadian Gothic vs Mustangs: who will win an AHL championship first.With: SergeAmount: We each put $100.00 into the pot each October.Off season 2006: $100 each, pot = $200.00Off season 2007: $100 each, pot = $400.00Off season 2008: $100 each, pot = $600.00Odds: evenOutcome: Ongoing Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 ******************************************************Date: March 1st, 2008Wager: Ottawa Senators vs three other Eastern Conference playoff teams (my choice) in a last longer bet. Teams TBD.With: SergeAmount: $50.00Odds: evenOutcome: Ongoing****************************************************** If the playoffs started right now I'd be picking New Jersey (vs Ottawa), Boston (vs Montreal) and Philadelphia (vs Pittsburgh) for you Serge. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 If the playoffs started right now I'd be picking New Jersey (vs Ottawa), Boston (vs Montreal) and Philadelphia (vs Pittsburgh) for you Serge.most likely those wont be matchups....Hopefully you will give me Toronto and Florida and New Jersey Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 most likely those wont be matchups....Hopefully you will give me Toronto and Florida and New JerseyHuh? They have to PLAY the Senators..... I must have misunderstood this bet from the start.... I thought Dale got to pick any three teams in a last longer... Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Huh? They have to PLAY the Senators..... I must have misunderstood this bet from the start.... I thought Dale got to pick any three teams in a last longer...no the bet was ....He can have ANY three teams of his choice....Ottawa has to last longer than all of them...Not necessarily the Sens opposition, but that would be the first logical team. Link to post Share on other sites
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