flush/straight draws

[JistTheFist 0]

sorry bro... but I've played in those freeroll tournaments at the "poker pubs" and "big league poker" and normally the guy with the early chip lead isn't the good player at all...it's the guys who call 4XBB from out of position holding 3,5 just cuz it's suited and get lucky, hit a flop, and eliminate four guys in one hand cuz it's a freeroll and everyone's playing like idiots...BUT, I wasn't trying to say he's not good, he could be very very tight and just be getting an amazing string of cards...  but the thing is, after he plays so many hands, eventually I will label him as loose...  also,.... I mean he played a suited ace from out of position, I'm guessing he really isn't that good. so I can put him on an ace and an undercard very easily....  BUT, even if he has Ax(overcard)I can give him 12 outs... 9-flush plus three over.I'm somewhere beteen 55-60% now... and since the point of tournaments is to finish in first place, and not just to stay alive... and since it WAS a freeroll, I'm going make this call because 55-60% of the time... I'm gonna get an easy coast into first place.

what you call "fold equity" is retarded.....this dude limped into a four-way pot...he's facing two decent-sized bets, with a player behind him to act still.... if he was going to play any pair 6's through aces he most likely would have raised preflop... he has no "fold equity" he has"I'm willing to double up whoever wants to stay in this hand" equity....he wasn't playing a big stack expertly.... what you call"chip-stack play" I call"chip spewing".you seem like the guy who gets the chip lead, and loses it in 5 minutes because you think you are allowed to play like an idiot now. just because you have chips to give away doesn't mean you need to be the ubor-aggressor and give them... in fact, one of my close friends... I LOVE when he gets big-stacked in tourneys... because he loves to give it away, and I know how to take it from him.

[JistTheFist 0]

I don't see how you can say the OP's play wasn't incorrect when the 2nd in chips guy is still to act after him, the guy who can do him most damage, is still to act after him.... you have no idea what this guy has, no feeling on his hand... and you risked a LARGE amount of chips to play against a guy you had no info on.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

you seem like the guy who gets the chip lead, and loses it in 5 minutes because you think you are allowed to play like an idiot now. just because you have chips to give away doesn't mean you need to be the ubor-aggressor and give them... in fact, one of my close friends... I LOVE when he gets big-stacked in tourneys... because he loves to give it away, and I know how to take it from him.

Actually, you're very correct about this. It's the same way that Swedish fellow in last years' Main Event, (Thor Somethingorother) dropped from a dominating chip lead to out of the tournament in two hands.It's the same thing that happened to D'Agostino at the final table of the US Poker Championship. (I'm not talking about the Corkins meltdown. I'm talking about him calling off about a third of his chips before the bad beats started coming.) It happens at almost every home game. Some radical with a J10 suited knocks out a couple of short stacked players on a miracle flop and thinks he's the second coming of Stu Ungar before he starts calling off all his chips, trying to put people all in with inferior hands. Eventually he falls out of the chip lead and the tournament. I think everyone sees it happen at some point or another. Everything from sit and gos, to freeze outs, to gi-normous freaking free rolls. It happens. I can agree whole heartedly with that assessment. That's why I kept waiting for Raymer to start crapping it down his leg at the WSOP.

[SabaAba 0]

sorry bro... but I've played in those freeroll tournaments at the "poker pubs" and "big league poker" and normally the guy with the early chip lead isn't the good player at all...it's the guys who call 4XBB from out of position holding 3,5 just cuz it's suited and get lucky, hit a flop, and eliminate four guys in one hand cuz it's a freeroll and everyone's playing like idiots...BUT, I wasn't trying to say he's not good, he could be very very tight and just be getting an amazing string of cards...  but the thing is, after he plays so many hands, eventually I will label him as loose...  also,.... I mean he played a suited ace from out of position, I'm guessing he really isn't that good. so I can put him on an ace and an undercard very easily....  BUT, even if he has Ax(overcard)I can give him 12 outs... 9-flush plus three over.I'm somewhere beteen 55-60% now... and since the point of tournaments is to finish in first place, and not just to stay alive... and since it WAS a freeroll, I'm going make this call because 55-60% of the time... I'm gonna get an easy coast into first place.

If you are putting him on 12 outs you are about 50-55%, not 60%. Yeah it's a freeroll, but let's assum it's not, do you still make the call? Also, I thought the guy 2nd in chips is the guy who called, am I wrong here? I thought the A9 limped in UTG (which you obvoiusly would not have done, right? then how can you say you would have made the call?) anyway, and afer the flop, the BB bets 1000, the 2nd chip A9 guy calls then you go all in, the LP guy folds as does the BB who started the betting. That's how I see the play unfolding.

[Lord Ben 0]

Since the post really took off I'll explain the situation a little bit better. I think I'm the best player on the table (I ended up winning 1st out of 29). The guy 2nd in chips is probably 2nd best. I won the 12000 by taking down a few semi-decent pots of 1-2k each. No suckage doubling down. This all in play by me was the first of the evening (for me) and the last until the final table when I was short stacked. So I don't do it often. I was sitting to the right of the dealer so I could fold my A8 if I didn't hit anything and maybe bluff and take it down if I did. The player with A9 was big blind. I don't regret limping into a lot of pots early in the tourney trying to catch hands against the fish. I could afford it. The pot was about 3000, any bet would have put everyone all in. Just calling means I piss away 1000 at a time without the chance of a fold. I wasn't willing to do that. In previous hands when holding a good hand I'd make a pot sized bet (typically 700 or so) and either collect when people folded or end up winning it in the show down (sometimes losing, but it was working in the long run). In this situation with the 2 people betting 1000 each the pot was 3000 and any chance of winning it by having people fold would basically be an all in bet to them. So I was faced with betting big or folding because I didn't want to just call. I knew he'd bet again after the turn and I didn't want to chase cards. I wanted to be aggressive and commit to winning the pot now or drawing down on it, or I wanted to fold and just let them duke it out. Since he was a skilled player, I figured he'd fold in the 30 player tourney with 20 people left in the game. No sense in risking his 2nd place chip stack on A9 which is what I put him on.

[Lord Ben 0]

Also, it's not a freeroll game. It's a $25 homegame in my brothers garage. 29 people were there for $725 in winnings.

[jgarza 0]

I disagree completely with what m0st of you are saying. NEVER move in? No, that is completely wrong. In many situations it is correct to move in and gamble because you have the proper expectation of winning the pot outright. However, in a situation like this you clearly do NOT want to move all in because it seems very unlikely that you will pick up the pot.I think reraising with the flush draw can be a very very powerful move at the right moment. For example, my style in higher stakes cash games is very loose, and I make continuation bets to try to pick up the pot the majority of the time after ive raised because I feel such bets usually have proper expectation even if I never win the pot when I am called. As a result of this, i get a lot of loose action. especially when i am out of position. If someone reraises me and I have the nut flush draw, and EsPECIALLY when I am out of position, A lot of the time I will come over the top. Here's why: even if someone has an overpair or say top pair without any real kicker problems, its STILL very likely they will fold to such a show of strength. I mean, maybe I have a big draw or a pair and a draw, but I also play sets and two pair and similar hands in almost exactly the same way. And they KNOW if they call a reraise on the flop, they will be facing a bet on the turn (of course they might not really if I have the draw and miss). So, the CORRECT play for them a lot of the time is to lay down their JJ on the 1045 board. In a tournament, this is different because you usually do not have so many chips relative to the blinds. In a multiway pot, unless you feel a reraise is very likely to pick up the pot, i would just take the great pot odds and call.-"Action" Jeff Garza

[Royal_Tour 0]

I disagree completely with what m0st of you are saying. NEVER move in? No, that is completely wrong. This sentence is completely wrong.. You do realise you contradict yourself right after you say this.There is a huge difference froma cash game, to a tournament. Moving in is foolish in this situation.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Moving in is foolish in this situation.

I agree with this statement. You are an underdog to win this pot based solely on pot odds (meaning you will lose more times than you will win in this scenario). Getting lucky to win this hand does not mean you made the correct play (results don't matter). :wink:

[Lord Ben 0]

Sure, but I think you're not including the odds of them just folding to a pot sized bet (which is what it was essentially). They'll fold that call enough times to give me more money in the long run.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Sure, but I think you're not including the odds of them just folding to a pot sized bet (which is what it was essentially). They'll fold that call enough times to give me more money in the long run.

Please explain the math on that statement for guys like me that have a hard time believeing that until I see it. I do not think it is correct, but perhaps the math will make it so...

[Lord Ben 0]

If they fold 50% of the time (I win 3000), call and lose 20% of the time (I win 8k), and call and win 30% of the time (I lose 6k) then the math is basically that I'll win money 70% of the time.Now assume that we do the scenario 10 times.I'll win 15k by them folding, and I'll win 16k by them calling and losing. If they call and get outdrawn I'll lose 18k. Over the course of 10 hands I'll be up 13k in chips. 20% of the time I'll eliminate a player, and 30% of the time I'll still have 6-7k left in chips even if I lose which still makes me 2nd in chip position (we essentially swap places).I like the odds personally.

[Royal_Tour 0]

If they fold 50% of the time (I win 3000), call and lose 20% of the time (I win 8k), and call and win 30% of the time (I lose 6k) then the math is basically that I'll win money 70% of the time.Now assume that we do the scenario 10 times.I'll win 15k by them folding, and I'll win 16k by them calling and losing. If they call and get outdrawn I'll lose 18k. Over the course of 10 hands I'll be up 13k in chips. 20% of the time I'll eliminate a player, and 30% of the time I'll still have 6-7k left in chips even if I lose which still makes me 2nd in chip position (we essentially swap places).I like the odds personally.

I hate to break it to you, but this makes no sense.. heres why., if they flopped a set, they will call 90% of the time.Your basically guessing how often people will fold just because you pushed all your chips in.. That is not accurate at all.and 70% you will not win money. your hand is only a 40% fav. to win.

[Lord Ben 0]

40% IF they call. But they won't call every time and the pot was already a monster pot.

[Rocketwadster 0]

I hate to break it to you, but this makes no sense.. heres why., if they flopped a set, they will call 90% of the time.Your basically guessing how often people will fold just because you pushed all your chips in.. That is not accurate at all.and 70% you will not win money. your hand is only a 40% fav. to win.Royal, can you please show us what the math is supposed to be like. I am tyring to do it with pen and paper, but I am terrible at figuring it out. :pray:

[Royal_Tour 0]

This was from another post a few weeks ago. I'm too lazy to whip up math for this hand. so from these you can understand the basic idea, expect change the dollar amount, and the turn push, to a flop push.Also take into account that this was a player with what was the winning hand at the time, up against a set. which then paired on the river to make the boat. but the basic idea is still there.Notice the "out of tournament averages if you push all in"Adjusting for a 9k pot instead of a 7k pot. And now no more small bet on the river, you push if an apparent blank comes.(1) Calling on turn, pushing on river with apparent blankIf he calls the river 100% of the time that he doesn't make the boat77% of the time you end with 41k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 34kOut of tournament 7%If he calls the river 75% of the time that he doesn't make the boat58% of the time you end with 41k19% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 31kOut of tournament 7%If he calls the river 50% of the time that he doesn't make the boat38.5% of the time you end with 41k38.5% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 28kOut of tournament 7%If he calls the river 25% of the time that he doesn't make the boat19% of the time you end with 41k58% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 24kOut of tournament 7%(2) Pushing on turnIf he never folds77% of the time you end up with 41k23% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 31.5kOut of tournament 23%If he folds 25% of the time25% of the time you end up wtih 25k58% of the time you end up with 41k17% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 30kOut of tournament 17%If he folds 50% of the time50% of the time you end up wtih 25k38.5% of the time you end up with 41k11.5% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 28kOut of tournament 11.5%If he folds 75% of the time75% of the time you end up wtih 25k19% of the time you end up with 41k6% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 26.5kOut of tournament 6%

[Lord Ben 0]

Rocket, the math is pretty easy. But only IF you know what to punch in. First you need to figure out your chances of winning the pot (you don't know this at the table). In my case I figure I'd only win if a club hit, so about 40% or so. Then you need to try and guestimate how often your opponent will fold. I figured he wasn't willing to gamble on his pair of 9's so I put the chance of him folding pretty high (in my mind it's higher than 50%). Then you just need to figure out how much you'll win or lose in all the various situations and tally them up.The easiest way to tally them up is to take the amount you'll win or lose and multiply it by the % chance you have of that particular event happening. Then add up all the various things and that's what you'll win/lose over 100 hands of playing the same thing over and over. However it can be wrong if you're reads are wrong. For instance if the guy with a pair of 9's actually was bluffing to get the 1000 already in the pot he'll never call my all in and I'll win every single time. Or if he hit trip 9's he'll probably call 90%+ times. So your reads need to be right too.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Rocket, the math is pretty easy. But only IF you know what to punch in. First you need to figure out your chances of winning the pot (you don't know this at the table). In my case I figure I'd only win if a club hit, so about 40% or so. Then you need to try and guestimate how often your opponent will fold. I figured he wasn't willing to gamble on his pair of 9's so I put the chance of him folding pretty high (in my mind it's higher than 50%). Then you just need to figure out how much you'll win or lose in all the various situations and tally them up.You are telling me the math is easy, but Royal is saying that you are not doing the math right. I am trying to do it using simply values (ie. $10 to win $x and am still having a difficult time with it). I don't know who is right just yet...

[rawl316 0]

I do not see how being 2nd in chips... and being a 65% favorite to DOUBLE UP is a bad play at all.

You only know you are a 65% chance based on what he flipped over. If you had a hand like 10c Jc, Qc Kc as well as several other hands, you are indeed a 40% underdog to win the pot after the flop (6 overcards, 9 clubs).

[rawl316 0]

And I'm sure you are a good player Jist, but because you disagree with me "ALMOST ALWAYS", doesn't mean I suck, it could mean we are both good but think differently

I believe Phil Ivey once told Lederer, "you get your chips your way, I'll get my chips my way"

[rawl316 0]

40% IF they call. But they won't call every time and the pot was already a monster pot.

Plus, there is a chance your ace is live. in which case, it's a coin flip.

[flintsword 4]

What an incredibly long thread! What is interesting that once you filter out all the posturing and trash talk, there were some really good points made.Risky? Yes. Clearly there are enough hands that put the play in jeopardy.Logical? Yes. Lord Ben played this move with a plan in mind, which is a LOT better than playing it with just a hope. Depending on the opponent game behaviors up to that point, it might actually be a very good play.Example: If both limpers have historically folded over 50% of the time when faced with critical decisions, the chances of emerging victorious from current hand are better, since you are improving your chances of winning by creating a situation where they can fold.I liked the fact that Lord Ben had a good thought process for the hand.Also, it is an aggressive strategy using your chip advantage, and you want to "use" your chip lead as a tool to extract more value from your plays.I am not a big fan of betting big "just" for a flush draw, but I have to say that late into a tournament, with the objective to make a significant step up, you have to really factor in the risk benefit of such a move.In the same position, I would not play it, but that is me.Great post Lord Ben!