Stud8 River Mobnies Extraction

[Cappy37 0]

PokerStars Game #14238916282: HORSE (7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit, $0.50/$1.00) - 2008/01/01 - 00:43:00 (ET)Table 'Modestia' 8-max Seat #7 is the buttonSeat 1: patleafs ($36.25 in chips) Seat 2: KrakHeadEd ($19.80 in chips) Seat 3: PlumCreek ($22.50 in chips) Seat 4: egyptcamel ($23.75 in chips) Seat 5: cpe1704tks ($28.40 in chips) Seat 7: Cappy37 ($29.70 in chips) Seat 8: FeltingYou ($20.50 in chips) *** 3rd STREET ***Dealt to patleafs []Dealt to KrakHeadEd []Dealt to PlumCreek []Dealt to egyptcamel []Dealt to cpe1704tks []Dealt to Cappy37 []Dealt to FeltingYou []Cappy37: brings in for $0.25FeltingYou: folds patleafs: folds KrakHeadEd: calls $0.25PlumCreek: raises $0.25 to $0.50egyptcamel: calls $0.50cpe1704tks: folds Cappy37: calls $0.25KrakHeadEd: calls $0.25*** 4th STREET ***Dealt to KrakHeadEd [] []Dealt to PlumCreek [] []Dealt to egyptcamel [] []Dealt to Cappy37 [] []PlumCreek: checks egyptcamel: bets $0.50Cappy37: calls $0.50KrakHeadEd: calls $0.50PlumCreek: calls $0.50*** 5th STREET ***Dealt to KrakHeadEd [] []Dealt to PlumCreek [] []Dealt to egyptcamel [] []Dealt to Cappy37 [] []PlumCreek: checks egyptcamel: checks Cappy37: checks KrakHeadEd: checks *** 6th STREET ***Dealt to KrakHeadEd [] []Dealt to PlumCreek [] []Dealt to egyptcamel [] []Dealt to Cappy37 [: ] []PlumCreek: checks egyptcamel: checks Cappy37: bets $1KrakHeadEd: calls $1PlumCreek: calls $1egyptcamel: calls $1*** RIVER ***Dealt to Cappy37 [] []PlumCreek: checks egyptcamel: checks Cappy37: ??????????????????I got the low absolutely murdered with a 6 perfect. Plumcreek would need 3 wheel cards underneath, and he's more likely to have a pair and a flush draw than anything low-related. EgyptCamel cannot have a better low, period. With the duece of diamonds out and Krak likely on a diamond draw, it's *highly* unlikely he even had a draw to tie me, much less beat me.River is checked twice to me, which is horrible, imo. Egypt is your likely scoop candidate going for the straight, and Plum should either have made diamonds (unlikely) or improved to a low worth betting at this point. I pretty much am forced to bet here, although I'm thinking that Krakhead may bet if it's checked 3 ways to him. Any possible reason to get greedy and check to Krakhead? Or is it even far more likely to bet and pray someone else was planning on check raising?Meh.. I guess the real question is: should I have bet 5th with a strong low draw, or was checking the more optimal play? I'm trying to fine-tune my: "maxing value" in hands and this one stuck out in my memory. I think a bet on 5th would be confusing at best, and with no other 3's visible could I get some marginal high hands out repping the set to go heads up with a low draw? Or is it far, far better to have high hands stick around in order to get as much money into a pot I have a great shot at taking at least half of?

[Frez 0]

As I read through the hand, before I got to your comments, I thought that you should have bet 5th. But not to thin the field, but just because you have best low draw and against three you should have +EV if at least two call. I don't think it's going to make anyone think you have a set of 3s - IF they even think, they might put you on 4 low and a 4 straight, but I think they would just call along.

[SpiderGuard 0]

As I read through the hand, before I got to your comments, I thought that you should have bet 5th. But not to thin the field, but just because you have best low draw and against three you should have +EV if at least two call. I don't think it's going to make anyone think you have a set of 3s - IF they even think, they might put you on 4 low and a 4 straight, but I think they would just call along.

Agreed with Frez on 5th - you have to bet on 5th street there. You called on 4th, caught just about the best card in the deck for your hand, and didn't bet. Plus I never disagree with raw aggression ;)I think you have to bet on 7th...Egypt hasn't shown any aggression so far in the hand, and unless he caught a river straight I wouldn't count on him doing it here. What do we think Plum had here? buried Jacks? Split 9s? His line is really weird to me.

[Cappy37 0]

As I read through the hand, before I got to your comments, I thought that you should have bet 5th. But not to thin the field, but just because you have best low draw and against three you should have +EV if at least two call. I don't think it's going to make anyone think you have a set of 3s - IF they even think, they might put you on 4 low and a 4 straight, but I think they would just call along.

Here's the *weird* part about 5th... I have the best low draw, or do I? 2 aces, the *only* card that guarantees me the "best low" are gone.. 2 fives are gone, as well on 5th.. and egypt checking can make us wonder if that 5 paired him, which is good news for our *low*, but kills even more outs for us actually making a low at all. Two 8s are out, as is one 6.. Doing the math: We actually have *9* outs to make a low. That's it. *7* outs to make a 76 low or better... out of.. 17 seen cards, 35 unknowns.. So we are roughly 40% (7*2/35(because 7/35+7/34 is too TI-85 for me to worry about) to make a 76 (likely winner) low.. We are 52% to make an 87 low (ick) on the river.This is the kind of $#!t that makes split games so darn frustrating. Can I bet 5th? I got 7 cards on 6th that will make me do the happy dance, but does betting on 5th even get me a free card on 6th? With a (xx)493 showing, if I brick 6th, anyone with a brain is going to make me PAY to see 7th, and now I'm 20% to win 1/2 of the resulting pot, potentially 25% if an 87 does the trick.In my experience, i've been pretty 50/50 with the "I'm glad I built that pot up" vs. "I'm glad I kept that pot small" line of thinking. If I narrow the field and brick 6th, someone betting into me really hurts my pot odds for playing for 1/2 on 7th.

[Cappy37 0]

Agreed with Frez on 5th - you have to bet on 5th street there. You called on 4th, caught just about the best card in the deck for your hand, and didn't bet. Plus I never disagree with raw aggression

In o8b, I agree.. But in Stud8, especially facing this trio of opponents, I actually disagree with this statement. 3 players in this hand, the only real info we have is Egypt raised/completed on 3th, which tells me he is likely going low as well, or drawing both ways with a straight. He may have paired, but I don't know. The passive play of my villains in this hand lend me to believe that I'm up against high hands, but not high hands silly enough to go to war against each other to build up the side of the pot I'm likely to drag. Can we really bet 5th with no high potential and a low draw? I'm not certain. I'm starting to really like this hand as a strat post, because I muffed it originally: I thought I acted first on the river and wanted to weigh betting out vs. check-raising... but in actuality that wasn't even the case and 5th street is far more interesting. We don't have nearly the live outs we'd be comfortable with here.

I think you have to bet on 7th...Egypt hasn't shown any aggression so far in the hand, and unless he caught a river straight I wouldn't count on him doing it here. What do we think Plum had here? buried Jacks? Split 9s? His line is really weird to me.

I agree all around. I have to bet in this spot, not even a question.Here's Villain Holecards for posterity's sake:Plum: (TTd) hidden pair + flush draw on 6thEgypt: folded river, we'll never know...Krak: (J8off) 2 pair on 4th... never improved.

[SpiderGuard 0]

Can we really bet 5th with no high potential and a low draw? I'm not certain. I'm starting to really like this hand as a strat post, because I muffed it originally: I thought I acted first on the river and wanted to weigh betting out vs. check-raising... but in actuality that wasn't even the case and 5th street is far more interesting. We don't have nearly the live outs we'd be comfortable with here.

5th street was perfect for you, but also really bad for you.You caught the second best card you possibly could have. But at the same time not only did everyone else catch low cards, they caught low cards that you need...didn't see that the first time.I dunno - I still think you have to bet 5th street. You caught the card you were hoping for, go with it. I may be an aggro-donk, but I tend to lean toward bet > check > call in these situations. At least in my experience, taking control of the betting lets me make easier decisions on 6th and 7th.

[Cappy37 0]

5th street was perfect for you, but also really bad for you.You caught the second best card you possibly could have. But at the same time not only did everyone else catch low cards, they caught low cards that you need...didn't see that the first time.I dunno - I still think you have to bet 5th street. You caught the card you were hoping for, go with it. I may be an aggro-donk, but I tend to lean toward bet > check > call in these situations. At least in my experience, taking control of the betting lets me make easier decisions on 6th and 7th.

Just to grill you further, there are 2 prime examples:1. ) Betting 5th builds the pot for us to hit our draw on 6th.2. ) Betting 5th gets us a free card on 6th if we miss.So...1. ) 20% of the time this was a "great" bet when we hit our draw to a 76 better.1b. ) 26% of the time we now have a made 8 low in a bigger pot.2. ) We've paid $1 on 5th with one to act behind us, to not pay $1 on 6th.Kind of weird in black and white, is it not?

[Frez 0]

Just to grill you further, there are 2 prime examples:1. ) Betting 5th builds the pot for us to hit our draw on 6th.2. ) Betting 5th gets us a free card on 6th if we miss.So...1. ) 20% of the time this was a "great" bet when we hit our draw to a 76 better.1b. ) 26% of the time we now have a made 8 low in a bigger pot.2. ) We've paid $1 on 5th with one to act behind us, to not pay $1 on 6th.Kind of weird in black and white, is it not?

Weird? You figure a 40% chance to make a 7 by the river. Bet 5th like Frez says. If you get 2 out of 3 of them calling, you're profitting. Plus you may push out someone else with a low draw and then maybe if you make an 8 it's good.

[SpiderGuard 0]

Weird? You figure a 40% chance to make a 7 by the river. Bet 5th like Frez says. If you get 2 out of 3 of them calling, you're profitting. Plus you may push out someone else with a low draw and then maybe if you make an 8 it's good.

That's often my rationale for trying to make someone call 2 bets even when I know I'm behind - if I can push out a better low draw then I figure I stand to profit, even if I'm getting my money in badly now. Not sure if it's good rationale or not, but it's mine dammit