Huge All In On River

[NYRfan1989 0]

Villain has been loose/passive but has random aggression and is a bit of a donk IMO. Any input on the hand would be appreciated as well as on if my thought process is correct..05/.10 NLHE Cash 6 handedVillain - $12 (SB)Hero - $13 (BB)Hero is dealt Qs 7h(Pre-flop)Folds around, Villain limps, Hero checks(Flop 7c Ac 5d ) pot .20Villain checks, Hero bets .20, Villain Calls .20I figure the c/c is either a weak A or a flush draw)Turn (6h) pot .60Villain Bets .10, Hero raises to .60, Villain calls .50Not really sure what to make of min bets in general. Now I figure he is either value betting his A or maybe something bigger, making a weak bet with a 5 or (most likely from the way he's played) on a flush draw. So I raise it up to chase away the draw, and hopefully get some info. When he c/c's again I'm a little confused. Villain flamed someone earlier for not raising 55 preflop saying any pocket pair is probably a coin flip pre-flop, that he would raise 22 against AKs all day, etc. So i don't think he has a set since no pre-flop raise, but I'm somewhat wary of one, maybe some random non-A 2pair.River (Qd) pot 1.80Villain goes all in ($11) Hero ...This guys gotta have a set here right? But based on what I've been watching for the past 2 hrs this guy limps SB heads up w/ anything less then K10 and always raises with a PP. Any and all input appreciated.

[E-Cart6 0]

If your read is correct and he does not have a set, i'd put him on either a straight/lower 2 pair or he slowplayed something like 2 queens or AQ.He could've just limped with his queens/AQ because he wanted action and was afraid he wouldn't get any because everyone folded to you.he could just aswell have a lower 2 pair or straight or something. It's too hard to say. I'd fold it. The pot's fairly small and i wouldn't risk so much on this weird hand. On top of that i often find myself overplaying a crappy hand from the small/big blind, trying to steal the pot, because i think no1 else's got a good hand anyway. I often end up losing such a hand.

[pdr87 0]

He's got you beat 90% of the time here imo.

[MinhLyFan 1]

This spot only sucks because you are so deep. I have played a million pots just like this with and without the raise on the river,the majority of the time they have a draw. That min bet on the turn is generally used as a blocking bet, although a very bad one, or a bet that is trying to induce a raise. The latter is very unlikely because it is so small and hardly accopmplishes anything in terms of making the pot bigger. And the villian didn't put in a re raise on the turn. If he has something like a set here, I would honestly believe that he would want to get the money in asap. just shoving on the river is silly considering the stack sizes and the pot size. Furthermore, two pair heads up in this spot is way strong considering the game you're playing and the obvious lack of skill/discipline of your opponent. But, pot is tiny, and he will probably give it away in a better spot later.

[pezeveng 207]

He could very easily have 7-5.

[Dubey 1,035]

looks like a missed draw to me. The minbet on the turn is a blocking bet from a draw a lot of the time. On the other hand, huge overbets on the river are a monster hand a lot of the time. The villain's line doesn't really make sense here. *shrug* maybe he has Qc5c

[Novice26 0]

I think he missed his straight/flush, and knows he needs to bet to win the pot.

[AimHigher 0]

This line makes absolutely no sense,it's probably not a setit's probably not a straightI would guess either two pair or a busted flush draw. The turn bet is extremely weird, it does look like a blocking bet but to be honest is that even in the typical .5/.10 cent donk's arsenal? I am thinking two pair is more likely.One thing I would say is that most players are strong at these stakes when they overbet the pot. Also you have represented an ace. Maybe he hit his two pair and thinks you'll pay him with your pair. I probably call and hope he shows a two pair that we beat.

[Ricer98 0]

Not a huge fan of the turn raise, I see the reasons but I'm not sold on it. It seems like it turns our hand into a bluff as only draws and better hands call, I would not be wanting a call. Our hand has a fair amount of showdown value and it is impossible to put the villain on a range, besides that we know he probably doesn't have a pocket pair, so I would play to get it showdown as cheap as possible. Just call the turn then probably fold the river to a strong bet or if an obvious draw hits. As played, you can find a better spot. Villian very easily made two pair with an Ax type hand or a straight and the pot isn't that big. We need to have the best hand 90% of time just to break even; there is no way we are ahead that often.

[Zach6668 513]

As played, you can find a better spot. (1) Villian very easily made two pair with an Ax type hand or a straight and the pot isn't that big. We need to have the best hand 90% of time just to break even (2); there is no way we are ahead that often.

(1) Completely irrelevant in a cash game. It's either +EV or it's not.(2) No. You did the math wrong. Rough guestimate, it'll be more like 45% of the time.

[Ricer98 0]

(1) Completely irrelevant in a cash game. It's either +EV or it's not.(2) No. You did the math wrong. Rough guestimate, it'll be more like 45% of the time.

Yeah, apparently I suck at math, week break from school my brain is set on coast. Let me rephrase, you can find a better spot means I don't think its a +EV play, maybe break even at best. Also, not completely irrelevant. In spots like this where it is very close to either a big hand or big bluff I will often lean towards fold and find a better spot if he is betting a worse hand. Calling a 6x the pot bet where I am only slightly +EV against his range just increases variance, which psychologically can be worse than $1 in expected value I would stand to gain over the long run.

[Zach6668 513]

Calling a 6x the pot bet where I am only slightly +EV against his range just increases variance, which psychologically can be worse than $1 in expected value I would stand to gain over the long run.

Variance is not an issue for a cash game player. That is why we play within our bankroll.Our only goal in cash games is to maximize our expectation. If you're passing up +EV opportunities, you aren't doing that. Maybe you don't like money, maybe you don't want to win as much as you can, but your reasoning does not make it correct to pass up an edge.

[Ricer98 0]

Variance is not an issue for a cash game player. That is why we play within our bankroll.Our only goal in cash games is to maximize our expectation. If you're passing up +EV opportunities, you aren't doing that. Maybe you don't like money, maybe you don't want to win as much as you can, but your reasoning does not make it correct to pass up an edge.

Variance is not an issue for a player who can keep a perfect level head. To some people simply losing can effect the rest of their play. One thing I am personally working on is that I tend to not play my best when I'm stuck. When I'm winning my A game usually comes out, but after I take a couple beats and get stuck 2-3 buy ins it occasionally effects my play and I do not make as good of decision. I will do things that looking back the next day, or even right after it happens, I go WTF that was just dumb. So, lets look at how this applies to this specific hand. To call the river we are getting 1.16-1 odds to call and need to have 46.3% equity to break even in the hand. Just for fun, say we're 48% against his range, giving us an EV or +0.42. The times I call and win the hand I think okay I made a good call everything stays fine. Now the 52% of the time I lose, maybe 10% of the time I question making the call. Which in turn, leads to questioning my thinking in future hands, which leads to costing me more money because I'm not playing my A game that the 42 cents I make off the call. Or, since I know its a very close situations and I am not sure if it is slightly positive or slightly negative I just let the hand go. I won't even question the fold which means I just keep playing my winning game and don't let any negative thoughts creap into my head. Variance can be tough to deal with psychologically and easily starts to effect our play. How many times do you hear from people on here in a big down swing questioning the simplest of plays. The variance of the game effects our play, which in turn effects our ability to maximize our expecation during an entire session. It can be a huge issue for players who can't perfectly control their play in the face of it.

[Zach6668 513]

I realize that some people may have tilt issues (and I certainly may, as well), but that doesn't really change the optimal play. Working on tilt issues should be something you deal with seperately. If you tilt from losing a buyin at a certain level, you really aren't rolled big enough to play it for a living, sorta.I'm also really not talking about this specific hand. I really don't know what the odds are here, or whatever, but rather just responding in generics to a statement I believe to be untrue.

[Ricer98 0]

I realize that some people may have tilt issues (and I certainly may, as well), but that doesn't really change the optimal play. Working on tilt issues should be something you deal with seperately. If you tilt from losing a buyin at a certain level, you really aren't rolled big enough to play it for a living, sorta.I'm also really not talking about this specific hand. I really don't know what the odds are here, or whatever, but rather just responding in generics to a statement I believe to be untrue.

I look at this two different ways, the optimal play for one specific hand or the optimal play for a given session. Maybe I shouldn't, but I see a difference. Personally I know the effects of variance can throw my game out of whack so I feel making the optimal long term play has a greater effect on my overall expected value than the optimal play for one specific hand. Granted, only in very close/unsure situations. I'd probably never throw away a hand if I knew for sure it was a +EV play because I was worried about the consequences of variance.Its not really the issue of losing one buy in that sets me on semi tilt, its knowing or thinking I'm not playing my best. Once that happens I can often beat myself up over a play or try to force my best play; neither of which do me any good. As for this specific hand, I was just merely using it to illustrate a point. This hand could be switched out with just about any close call where it is either very slightly positive or very slightly negative. Either way, its all of sudden 2:00am and definetly time for bed.

[Zach6668 513]

Shouldn't passing up +EV situations tilt you then, if you go on semi-tilt from not playing your best?

[Acid_Knight 2]

I don't think you find a busted draw enough to make this call profitable.