What On Earth Does This Guy Have?

[Sheiky 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Hero (t1475)SB (t5495)BB (t1005)UTG (t1400)MP (t4125)Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J. 1 fold, MP calls t50, Hero raises to t200, SB calls t175, 1 fold, MP calls t150.Flop: (t650) 4, K, J(3 players)SB checks, MP bets t200, Hero calls t200, SB calls t200.Turn: (t1250) T(3 players)SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets t400, SB folds, MP calls t400.River: (t2050) 9(2 players)MP checks, Hero checks.Final Pot: t2050Is there a case for moving all in on the turn here or flop here?I think i may not be being aggressive enough and letting people semi-bluff and catch better hands, do i need to bite the bullet and shove in more spots to force people of?

[BoBetter 0]

Are you serious? You're beat and should probably fold the flop. If not, at least check the turn and get a free draw to the nut flush and a cheap showdown. It's early in the tournament, this guy has a big stack, and is probably limping with KQ, AK, or KJ. Or he has a set of 4's and is scared of the flush, or a bigger set since you've shown aggression.

[jmbreslin 0]

Turn bet is too small, you're giving both villains tempting odds to stay in and chase hands. Since you're down to 1000 chips at that point and any reasonable bet will commit you to the pot, might as well put it all in if you want to bet. MP2's betting pattern tells me he's probably playing a K. The flush draw doesn't concern me all that much, since the Ah, Kh, and Jh are all accounted for. A flush draw would mean someone called your PF raise with a mediocre Q-high heart hand. Not impossible, since this is probably a $1 tourney, but much less likely than if the Ah and Kh were still out there.Once the Th comes on the turn, you actually pick up a bunch of outs to the nut flush to add to your J and A outs, which is all the more reason to get the rest of your chips in. Another option is to raise the flop, but any decent-sized raise will leave you pot committed anyway and I'm not crazy about putting all my chips in on the flop against 2 opponents with 2ndPTK when one of the villains limped, called my raise, and led into me on a K-high flop.

[jmbreslin 0]

Are you serious? You're beat and should probably fold the flop.

So you raise PF to isolate w/ AJ and then hit a J on the flop (almost the best-case scenario), and you're going to fold to a 1/3 pot bet?

[rog 0]

So you raise PF to isolate w/ AJ and then hit a J on the flop (almost the best-case scenario), and you're going to fold to a 1/3 pot bet?

1) isolation failed2) K figures prominently in the hands that limp/call. Not that I hate the flop call here, but there's a pretty good chance you're beat here.

[jmbreslin 0]

Ignore, double post.

[jmbreslin 0]

Agreed, but I think it's worth calling to see what happens on the turn. Once the 3rd heart falls and MP checks, Hero is in a good spot to push with a semi-bluff. If Hero doesn't improve on the turn and MP leads out again, then he can bail with his 1000 chips. Still plenty of play at 25/50 blinds.

[Sheiky 0]

Agreed, but I think it's worth calling to see what happens on the turn. Once the 3rd heart falls and MP checks, Hero is in a good spot to push with a semi-bluff. If Hero doesn't improve on the turn and MP leads out again, then he can bail with his 1000 chips. Still plenty of play at 25/50 blinds.

Yeh that was my thinking behind the hand, largely inspired by DN's article on smallball before which i used to raise to find out where i was at all the time and learn nothing.This type of situation happens a lot in SNGs and i feel i handle it pretty badly because i'm too timid to shove.

[throwemaway 0]

I like the hand all the way up to the turn...Checking behind and keeping the pot small at the time is the best play there, especially since we have a draw to the nut flush..We would hate to get check raised here so lets not open up the betting to give him a chance at that..Shoving is also an option on the turn but I think checking is a bit better

[copernicus 0]

Certainly smells like a set or a draw that was missed or slow-played. Moving in with your stack does nothing to shut down draws on the flop. With that turn card I would check. You would much rather see the river than be put to a decision by a raise/push, and you can close out the betting with a check.

[Sheiky 0]

So no need to push in this hand then?He turned over Q8 for a backdoor straight.

[copernicus 0]

So no need to push in this hand then?He turned over Q8 for a backdoor straight.

I can't see pushing. You could be behind, you could be facing a two way draw that you cant push out. Throwemaway alluded to the Sklanskyism "Don't bet if you'll hate a reraise", which you certainly do here. Its a tough hand to fold to a reraise, so why risk being put to that test?

[jmbreslin 0]

Now that I look at it again you don't have as many outs as I originally thought. You have 2 J outs and 3 A outs, but with the T, J, K on the board an A would complete the straight for anyone holding a Q. So you can't count the full 3 A outs. There are a maximum of 9 hearts left, but with two villains in the hand they may not all be live. So the absolute best case scenario is that all your 14 outs are live, but you could be as low as 9 or 10.Copernicus is right, this is not a great semi-bluff push situation on the turn.

[Stuples 0]

I'd say raise the flop because we have position and pre-flop aggression and he's made a prob-sized bet that begs for a raise but I cant help thinking that I'm being results based. You posted the results after 3hrs of creating the thread, whats the rush?