Would This Be A Brutally Bad Call?

[wildspoke 2]

5 players left. Top 4 pay. One player is EXTREMELY short stacked. I am the first to act and see A8 of clubs. I raise it to 720. Folds to the BB who bangs to 1200 total. I call. The flop comes 5c 6c 7h. With the possible exception of flopping the joint, I flopped a massive draw both str8 and nut flush. The BB moves all in putting my tournament at risk. Do I call? I believe he has either a big ace or on a steal. Even if he has a pair, I'm still have a monster draw.Thanks in advance,JoeFull Tilt Poker Game $10 + $1 Sit & Go, Table 2 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:35:05 ET - 2007/09/23Seat 3: dsjake (8,175)Seat 6: OUR HERO (6,330)Seat 7: THE BAD GUY (8,660)Seat 8: Brautigan (3,295)Seat 9: ClaytonHopper (540)ClaytonHopper posts the small blind of 120BAD GUY posts the big blind of 240The button is in seat #8*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to OUR HERO [8c Ac]HERO raises to 720smokethat foldsBrautigan foldsClaytonHopper foldsBAD GUY raises to 1,200HERO calls 480*** FLOP *** [5c 6c 7h]BAD GUY bets 6,975, and is all inInsta fold right?

[dgostate8 0]

Call

[pokerinc 0]

A8 cc 55%aa 45%vs. other pairs it's even better.call it up.

[AKProdigy 0]

A8 cc 55%aa 45%vs. other pairs it's even better.call it up.

Ignores ICM.Assuming 40,30,20,10 payout....Fold:0.27290.2258 (You)0.29220.18140.0278Call and Win:0.28340.3214 (You)0.16390.19670.0347Call and Lose:0 (You)Percentage favourite you need to be vs. his range:Fold: 0.2258Win: 0.2258/0.3214 = 70.26%I think your maybe 60 - 65% at best. Fold.

[Wingman008 0]

I call. If your read is correct we have the 70% a good portion of the time.Also, if we win this hand our chance of winning the tourny goes from 1/5 to 1/3.

[wildspoke 2]

Call and Lose:0 (You)

Don't know what ICM is. Can you explain. Thanks.As I read the responses, the majority thought I should call. But as I thought about the hand without the time pressue/heat of the moment, AK was dead on. At best, I was a 70% fav. Which is a great place to be but if I lose, I get nothing. I will have finished 5th out of the money. I have been playing fairly well lately and one of the things I am trying to do less of is gamble. At this point, I don't have a made hand. I am calling off my tournament life with a draw. Granted it's pretty strong but if I lose I'm done.If I was already ITM, I make this call without a thought but because we're on the bubble, I think the proper play is to fold. Which is not what I did.I called. He turned over AK (no clubs). So as someone wrote earlier, I was about a 70% chance to win. Well, the turn was a king and the river was a red seven. So although I had huge draw, I missed and was sent packing in 5th place. Since I was in second place, I could have easily have waited until I was ITM before risking my tournament life. Thanks for responses. Greatly appreciated.Joe

[sholden 0]

Don't know what ICM is. Can you explain. Thanks.

Have a play with the caclulator at http://www.icmpoker.com/ It's a way determining what portion of the prize pool is yours at the moment (given the chipstacks of everyone left and the payout structure) and hence whether a push/call is +EV or -EV prize wise instead of chip wise.Since it's a tournament your chips aren't cash equivalent (which is most obvious when you win the tournament and get far less money than you have in chips - once scaled to how much the chips cost at the start). It boils down chips having less value as you get more of them, which means what is a +EV play in a cash game can be +EV chipwise in a tournament, but -EV prize money wise (which is what matters of course).The extreme case is the satellite bubble when there are a few short stacks and you are middle of the road, folding AA preflop to a push from a big stack can become the correct play since the extra chips don't matter, and the 20% chance of being knocked out is too high...

[copernicus 0]

Youre on the bubble and the big stack is in the big blind and you have a mediocre hand, even 5 handed. If you raise pf, he calls and leads the flop what are you going to do with anything but a set or two pair? Unless you know that the table is very tight and BB doesnt defend his blinds, limp pf. Its a lot easier to get away from if BB then bets big, and its also not as tempting for him to bet big. As played its an easy fold with a stack that short.Another reason not to raise is that the tables main objective right now is to knock out the small stack. Keep pots small without the nuts to encourage him get him to get involved then cooperate, avoiding butting heads with each other wtihout the nuts/near nuts.

[monix 0]

Youre on the bubble and the big stack is in the big blind and you have a mediocre hand....

Welcome back Cop...where have you been for the last 2 months?

[Sheiky 0]

I'm not giving up a straight and flush draw no matter how short the shortstack is, go big or go home imo.

[copernicus 0]

Welcome back Cop...where have you been for the last 2 months?

Thanks...moving, a ton of work, and the timing has been good for a couple of Vegas trips in between.

[copernicus 0]

I'm not giving up a straight and flush draw no matter how short the shortstack is, go big or go home imo.

Depends on the payout schedule. Since this was a 2 tabke sng with only 4 spots paid, the ICM calcs above show that getting it all in here is definitely -$EV with a 4/3/2/1 payout. It would have to be much steeper than that to make risking the tourney right.

[Sheiky 0]

Really?I'll take your word for it then i guess, do those numbers mean i'm right to aim to cash first in one to five table SNGs instead of taking more risks hoping to finish first?I'm trying to get my strategies and aims sorted for micro SNGs on stars

[jmbreslin 0]

Yes, patience is a real virtue in micro SnGs. But the main point is that it often doesn't pay to take unnecessary risks when you're on the bubble because you'll make more money in the long run (+ev) sitting tight and waiting for the shortie to bust out. In the hand posted here there is one player who is on the verge of being blinded out, with less than 3BB. It doesn't make sense to even get involved with a hand like A8s (let alone raise with it) when the shortie is about to be knocked out of the tourney (thus guaranteeing you $). This is especially true in micro SnGs, where people make all sorts of stupid decisions and will let themselves get virtually blinded out of the game.

[Temporary Nuts 1]

5 players left. Top 4 pay. One player is EXTREMELY short stacked. I am the first to act and see A8 of clubs. I raise it to 720. Folds to the BB who bangs to 1200 total. I call. The flop comes 5c 6c 7h. With the possible exception of flopping the joint, I flopped a massive draw both str8 and nut flush. The BB moves all in putting my tournament at risk. Do I call? I believe he has either a big ace or on a steal. Even if he has a pair, I'm still have a monster draw.Thanks in advance,JoeFull Tilt Poker Game $10 + $1 Sit & Go, Table 2 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:35:05 ET - 2007/09/23Seat 3: dsjake (8,175)Seat 6: OUR HERO (6,330)Seat 7: THE BAD GUY (8,660)Seat 8: Brautigan (3,295)Seat 9: ClaytonHopper (540)ClaytonHopper posts the small blind of 120BAD GUY posts the big blind of 240The button is in seat #8*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to OUR HERO [8c Ac]HERO raises to 720smokethat foldsBrautigan foldsClaytonHopper foldsBAD GUY raises to 1,200HERO calls 480*** FLOP *** [5c 6c 7h]BAD GUY bets 6,975, and is all inInsta call right?

FYP

[copernicus 0]

Really?I'll take your word for it then i guess, do those numbers mean i'm right to aim to cash first in one to five table SNGs instead of taking more risks hoping to finish first?I'm trying to get my strategies and aims sorted for micro SNGs on stars

Big difference between 1 table and 5 table SnGs. At 1 and 2 tables (paying 4 spots) playing to cash first and move up later is clearly correct. A 5 tabler is a MTT for all intents and purposes and your focus is more on the top couple of spots. In between it depends on the exact payout structure and your bankroll vs the lower payouts. If your deeply funded at these stakes you can take more risks for higher placement. If your roll cant stand variance then play for the cash first.