$4.40 180 Man - Qq On The Bubble

[Yahkin 0]

19 left, 18 paid. UTG has 160 chips left and is sitting out, so the bubble bursts next hand.Hero (t11463)SB (t50564)BB (t3700)UTG (t160)MP (t6082)CO (t6260)Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q. 1 fold, MP raises to t2400, 1 fold, Hero ???I'm not worried about MP as I have him covered nicely...but the CL is left to act and has been a real table captain calling down everything. Last hand he started with 30k and called down ace high to the river putting 20k of his stack at risk. He rivered the ace and knocked out KK.Standard play here is to raise to isolate, but do we pass this spot up to avoid a confrontation with the CL? $8 is squat, but is better than $0 and 2 hours wasted.

[AKProdigy 0]

Shovel. If CL's range is fairly loose, I'll take a 70-30 against his range in order to double up and get myself in position for a dominating stack at the final table. There's no way we pass up this spot. In addition, your also probably ahead of MP's range, so if he calls, worst case scenario is he takes down the pot IF cl calls (if mp calls, and CL wins the pot, you bust out 18th making the money). If he folds getting 4:1, there's additional dead money in the pot. Get it in there.

[monix 0]

I'd push here, and HOPE the chip leader comes along...

[simo_8ball 0]

$8 is squat, but is better than $0 and 2 hours wasted.

Win this pot and you give yourself an awesome shot at getting very deep with a far better cash.

[rog 0]

I'm really torn. This is a pretty interesting decision to have to make. On the one hand, you are 100% guaranteed to money if you fold since BB is sitting out and uber-short. On the other hand, QQ is a beautiful holding to isolate with. On the third hand (first foot?), table captain may call you with anything, so you could bust here 30% of the time or more. Hmmm...I'd probably shove, but the more I think about it, the more I like fold. 11k is a TON of chips to be going to the final 2 tables with. Especially with a 50K chip leader. You might be as high as 4th in the standings right now.Shove or fold. I dont think either is much of a mistake here.

[the_moil 0]

I'm really torn. This is a pretty interesting decision to have to make. On the one hand, you are 100% guaranteed to money if you fold since BB is sitting out and uber-short. On the other hand, QQ is a beautiful holding to isolate with. On the third hand (first foot?), table captain may call you with anything, so you could bust here 30% of the time or more. Hmmm...I'd probably shove, but the more I think about it, the more I like fold. 11k is a TON of chips to be going to the final 2 tables with. Especially with a 50K chip leader. You might be as high as 4th in the standings right now.Shove or fold. I dont think either is much of a mistake here.

Pretend the bubble is not there.I would definitely push with this hand here and hope the CL calls. Win with both calls and you're at 29k. Thats a dominating stack and you could almost fold to the FTI think the tough decision would be AK in this spot(I would fold).....not QQ(Push)

[Yahkin 0]

Ok, so I raise to 6k to isolate the short stack. CL had his call any selected because it instacalled the second I hit raise.MP folds and the flop comes. 3 hearts and one of them is a Q so I hit my set but the flush is sitting out there now. Ack.CL checks. This does not particularly raise a warning flag with me because CL has not been real aggressive post flop. He's a calling station.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Hero (t11463)SB (t50564)BB (t3700)UTG (t160)MP (t6082)CO (t6260)Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q. 1 fold, MP raises to t2400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t6000, SB calls t5600, 1 fold, MP folds.Flop: (t14300) 5, Q, 9(2 players)SB checks, Hero ???

[monix 0]

Let's see:1 - Open folding is not going to happen (LOL)2 - Checking does not make sense as it gives a free card3 - Betting - a half-pot size bet is 3/4 of your stack...so you might as well...PUSH.

[simo_8ball 0]

Shovel.

[Yahkin 0]

Let's see:1 - Open folding is not going to happen (LOL)2 - Checking does not make sense as it gives a free card3 - Betting - a half-pot size bet is 3/4 of your stack...so you might as well...PUSH.

I'm not sure I agree with #2. If he has any heart he has odds to call my shove with 2 cards to come. If I check behind and the turn blanks, He's not getting as good of a price to call with a heart. If a heart does come on the turn, I can get away from the hand and still money. I'm shoving or calling any non heart on the turn if I check...and if he is afraid of the heart as well, he may actually lead the turn where he would have folded to my flop push.

[jmbreslin 0]

That's an interesting way to look at it, kind of a compromise between getting involved and folding to the money. Since Villain will instacall a push on the flop with a heart anyway, might as well see if you can keep some chips aside in case that fourth heart comes on the turn. Of course, then you leave yourself open to Villain bluffing you off the pot on a heart turn.

[Temporary Nuts 1]

Play to win. Shove.This is only a fold in a satellite.

[Yahkin 0]

I did push. He instacalled with 66 and one heart. Turn blanked, river was a heart and I'm out in 19th.I know I played this hand exactly like I should have, but I still feel like a complete idiot for getting knocked out on the bubble with UTG out the next hand.Here's an interesting question. Clearly missing the money of $8 was insignificant. But what if this was the WSOP ME and cashing means $20,000. Do I play it the same?

[firingblind 0]

I did push. He instacalled with 66 and one heart. Turn blanked, river was a heart and I'm out in 19th.I know I played this hand exactly like I should have, but I still feel like a complete idiot for getting knocked out on the bubble with UTG out the next hand.Here's an interesting question. Clearly missing the money of $8 was insignificant. But what if this was the WSOP ME and cashing means $20,000. Do I play it the same?

Good god, I feel your pain. I had similar circumstances occur yesterday, playing hands the way I should be, with a clear thought process, aggressive etc etc. And of course getting drawn out. Don't beat yourself up about this one. I believe you played this very well. And like the others mentioned above, you are playing for the top 3 spots in these 180's, everything else is chump change. Although... your WSOP scenario may change it personally for me, b/c I need 20K . However I would hope there isn't a donk would would play the WSOP bubble like he did, calling off with 66 and a weak flush draw. My 2 chips.

[rog 0]

I know I played this hand exactly like I should have, but I still feel like a complete idiot for getting knocked out on the bubble with UTG out the next hand.

If this is played exactly right, I have a problem in my game. I would never raise to half my stack with a premium hand preflop like that. I would simply shove it in. Convince me 6k is better than a shove...

[Yahkin 0]

If this is played exactly right, I have a problem in my game. I would never raise to half my stack with a premium hand preflop like that. I would simply shove it in. Convince me 6k is better than a shove...

I feel the burden of proof is on you. Convince me shoving is better than 6k.Who doesn't fold to 6k that does fold to a push? Absolutely nobody. And generally someone who comes along is going to cooperate to eliminate the short stack on the bubble. Why risk your whole stack when you really don't need to?Feel free to spew the "play to win" mantra, but keep in mind...you can't win from the rail. Taking unnecessary risks with get you to the rail faster.

[rog 0]

I feel the burden of proof is on you. Convince me shoving is better than 6k.Who doesn't fold to 6k that does fold to a push? Absolutely nobody. And generally someone who comes along is going to cooperate to eliminate the short stack on the bubble. Why risk your whole stack when you really don't need to?Feel free to spew the "play to win" mantra, but keep in mind...you can't win from the rail. Taking unnecessary risks with get you to the rail faster.

I never spew the "play to win" mantra, so I'm afraid you have me confused with someone else. My problem is that raising half your stack leaves no room for play if the CL has or hits some kind of hand and decides to protect it. Are you planning on folding to a reshove? Are you planning on folding to a flop bet? With no overs? 1 overcard? 2? I feel I'm probably committed with this raise, so why not maximize my fold equity, and get my chips in while they are good against a wider range.Edit: Not one person in this thread advocated raising half your stack. Most people said shove, so I know I'm not the only one that feels this way.

[rog 0]

Feel free to spew the "play to win" mantra, but keep in mind...you can't win from the rail. Taking unnecessary risks with get you to the rail faster.

I just get sick of people repeating the mantra of "playing to win" like it means something. Sometimes it's the right thing to do, but you have to be open to other tactics if you want to win at this game.

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...howtopic=105233I believe you owe me royalties. I'll take PS or Party transfer. ;)Edit: even more ironic is that you were telling me to shovel in that thread.

[the_moil 0]

I never spew the "play to win" mantra, so I'm afraid you have me confused with someone else. My problem is that raising half your stack leaves no room for play if the CL has or hits some kind of hand and decides to protect it. Are you planning on folding to a reshove? Are you planning on folding to a flop bet? With no overs? 1 overcard? 2? I feel I'm probably committed with this raise, so why not maximize my fold equity, and get my chips in while they are good against a wider range.Edit: Not one person in this thread advocated raising half your stack. Most people said shove, so I know I'm not the only one that feels this way.

QFTwhen you bet more than half your stack PF-------seriously----what flop will hold back that last 5.5k????

[Yahkin 0]

QFTwhen you bet more than half your stack PF-------seriously----what flop will hold back that last 5.5k????

Lots.My bet is designed to put the short stack raiser all in. And is enough that only a very strong hand is likely to call us(One that will call a push as well)...especially this close to the coin. But leaves me wiggle room to get out in case of bad flop against someone who has us covered. (Remember CL is to our left with 5x our chips.)So, like our situation, one of the blinds wakes up with a strong hand and calls our bet. What's his range typically gonna be? AK, JJ+. The flop comes with an A or a K and the EP caller puts us all in. Pretty easy fold. We have 5500 chips, are in the money, and live to fight on. I've taken 2nd in these with far less at the bubble.With your plan, we put it all in PF and pray that the big stack doesn't wake up with a big hand. When he calls, we pray for a good flop, and pray it holds. We've lost all ability to salvage anything if the cards fall wrong. Granted, we are shoving 80% of the flops we see, but we can get away from those 20% situations.Frankly, I feel that a shove PF has exactly 0% more FE than a raise to 6k.

[Yahkin 0]

I never spew the "play to win" mantra, so I'm afraid you have me confused with someone else. My problem is that raising half your stack leaves no room for play if the CL has or hits some kind of hand and decides to protect it. Are you planning on folding to a reshove? Are you planning on folding to a flop bet? With no overs? 1 overcard? 2? I feel I'm probably committed with this raise, so why not maximize my fold equity, and get my chips in while they are good against a wider range.Edit: Not one person in this thread advocated raising half your stack. Most people said shove, so I know I'm not the only one that feels this way.

Apologies on the mantra comment...It wasn't directed specifically at you. Temporary Nuts had mentioned it further up. I understand the concept as do most here, but I think solely thinking that way can lead to taking unwise risks. I'm not a nit on the bubble and play very aggressively to build my stack at this stage. But I also recognize that there is a time to protect your chips to salvage a tough bubble.As for the rest. No, I call a reshove PF. But if I get a call and the flop brings an over...I can fold to a bet. Like I said in my last post. $5500 and ITM is better than $0 and on the rail. As for FE, there is a point of diminishing returns. If they will call 6k, then there is VERY little chance that they would fold to 11k. You have to take the stacks left to act into account. One has 50k, 6k vs 11k is irrelavent. The other has 4k, so 6k puts them all in anyway. If the stacks were different...say the CL has 20k or less...then I completely agree. Shoving is definately more FE. But not in this situation...so why take that risk?

[armen13 0]

Yahkin, I think you are missing the point here. You want him to make a mistake and call, you want to double up while being 60%-80% ahead. 11k sounds comfortable, but 26k gives you a much better shot at top 3. Average stack will increase dramaticly on the final two tables, and you may not get a better spot. And you will most likely have to confront this guy before it is all over, why not do it while realy ahead?Your WSOP question is relevant here. If 20k means a lot to you (it does to me), then you should be carefull on the bubble. The reason is that in that spot you are essentialy playing far out of your bankroll and can not handle the variance. You won't be playing enough 10k events to get the bennefits of +EV plays. Instead you are focused on surviving THAT day. A pro at that same table will be playing many 10k events and will have a bigger bankroll than you, so for them it is important to maximize their EV in the long run (by making final tables) and not minimize their variance on that one day.The 4.40$ is the exact opposite, you are the pro there and have the ability to play 100's of these, so for you the best play in THIS situation is to max your EV by accumulating chips and making more final tables in the long run and going deeper than if you played tighter in this spot. So that being the case, how much more value does doubling to 26k give you in this spot? Looking at Chip equity (this is not accurate with 19 players left but is a very rough guide, also assuming the MP1 folds)There are 270000 chips in play. If you fold you will have 11k/270k or about 4% equity which is about 28$. If you shove and everyone folds You get about 4 k (you didn't mention blinds so guessing 1k) so 15k=40$. If you shove and are on average 70% to winn, then 30% you will loose -4.4$70% you win 26k chips = +69$This adds up to about 47$ which is significant compared to the 8$.Anyway the above is rough and full of assumptions but you get the idea.

[the_moil 0]

Lots.My bet is designed to put the short stack raiser all in. And is enough that only a very strong hand is likely to call us(One that will call a push as well)...especially this close to the coin. But leaves me wiggle room to get out in case of bad flop against someone who has us covered. (Remember CL is to our left with 5x our chips.)So, like our situation, one of the blinds wakes up with a strong hand and calls our bet. What's his range typically gonna be? AK, JJ+. The flop comes with an A or a K and the EP caller puts us all in. Pretty easy fold. We have 5500 chips, are in the money, and live to fight on. I've taken 2nd in these with far less at the bubble.With your plan, we put it all in PF and pray that the big stack doesn't wake up with a big hand. When he calls, we pray for a good flop, and pray it holds. We've lost all ability to salvage anything if the cards fall wrong. Granted, we are shoving 80% of the flops we see, but we can get away from those 20% situations.Frankly, I feel that a shove PF has exactly 0% more FE than a raise to 6k.

K...so, as you said, CL is a donk calling station.Looks like Blinds at 400/800MP has 6k chips. he raises to 2400you raise to 6kCL calls..........Pot at 15k.You're getting almost 3-1 if he shoves into you on the flop.1) So what flop makes you a 3-1 dog against 2 random cards???2) What flop will be bad enough that the CL will fold to your bet of 5.5k?3) Are you going to fold if he reraises you allin PF?If your answer is nothing in the first 2, and no in the third----tell me again why you dont push PF??

[firingblind 0]

Yahkin, I think you are missing the point here. You want him to make a mistake and call, you want to double up while being 60%-80% ahead. 11k sounds comfortable, but 26k gives you a much better shot at top 3. Average stack will increase dramaticly on the final two tables, and you may not get a better spot. And you will most likely have to confront this guy before it is all over, why not do it while realy ahead?Your WSOP question is relevant here. If 20k means a lot to you (it does to me), then you should be carefull on the bubble. The reason is that in that spot you are essentialy playing far out of your bankroll and can not handle the variance. You won't be playing enough 10k events to get the bennefits of +EV plays. Instead you are focused on surviving THAT day. A pro at that same table will be playing many 10k events and will have a bigger bankroll than you, so for them it is important to maximize their EV in the long run (by making final tables) and not minimize their variance on that one day.The 4.40$ is the exact opposite, you are the pro there and have the ability to play 100's of these, so for you the best play in THIS situation is to max your EV by accumulating chips and making more final tables in the long run and going deeper than if you played tighter in this spot. So that being the case, how much more value does doubling to 26k give you in this spot? Looking at Chip equity (this is not accurate with 19 players left but is a very rough guide, also assuming the MP1 folds)There are 270000 chips in play. If you fold you will have 11k/270k or about 4% equity which is about 28$. If you shove and everyone folds You get about 4 k (you didn't mention blinds so guessing 1k) so 15k=40$. If you shove and are on average 70% to winn, then 30% you will loose -4.4$70% you win 26k chips = +69$This adds up to about 47$ which is significant compared to the 8$.Anyway the above is rough and full of assumptions but you get the idea.

This is basically what I meant in my little blurb (lol) but He said it way more better and detailed

[Yahkin 0]

Yahkin, I think you are missing the point here. You want him to make a mistake and call, you want to double up while being 60%-80% ahead. 11k sounds comfortable, but 26k gives you a much better shot at top 3. Average stack will increase dramaticly on the final two tables, and you may not get a better spot. And you will most likely have to confront this guy before it is all over, why not do it while realy ahead?Your WSOP question is relevant here. If 20k means a lot to you (it does to me), then you should be carefull on the bubble. The reason is that in that spot you are essentialy playing far out of your bankroll and can not handle the variance. You won't be playing enough 10k events to get the bennefits of +EV plays. Instead you are focused on surviving THAT day. A pro at that same table will be playing many 10k events and will have a bigger bankroll than you, so for them it is important to maximize their EV in the long run (by making final tables) and not minimize their variance on that one day.The 4.40$ is the exact opposite, you are the pro there and have the ability to play 100's of these, so for you the best play in THIS situation is to max your EV by accumulating chips and making more final tables in the long run and going deeper than if you played tighter in this spot. So that being the case, how much more value does doubling to 26k give you in this spot? Looking at Chip equity (this is not accurate with 19 players left but is a very rough guide, also assuming the MP1 folds)There are 270000 chips in play. If you fold you will have 11k/270k or about 4% equity which is about 28$. If you shove and everyone folds You get about 4 k (you didn't mention blinds so guessing 1k) so 15k=40$. If you shove and are on average 70% to winn, then 30% you will loose -4.4$70% you win 26k chips = +69$This adds up to about 47$ which is significant compared to the 8$.Anyway the above is rough and full of assumptions but you get the idea.

Well stated and this does make sense. So clearly we want to get all of our chips in the middle in this situation.Is is better to bet the smaller amount PF then to give him reason to join in the pot to maximize our equity then?