Value Betting The River

[NYIsles 0]

I've realized that a serious flaw in my game is determining when to bet the river for value. I'm almost certain that I'm too passive here.Generally speaking, if I've had the lead in a hand the entire way, I'm up against a limited number of players and the board isn't too scary, a bet for value is usually automatic. But I often find myself unsure of what to do when the third flush card hits, or there's four to a baby straight in a pot that was raised PF, or there are several players who have called through the turn while I'm holding nothing more than top (or an over) pair.Forum posters would, I'm sure, say it depends on your read of the players. But let's face it... even with tools like Pokertracker and PokerAce HUD, the low-limit online game is very transient, and more often than not, you won't have a reliable read on your opponents.While I may be falling victim to the psychological phenomenon of only remembering the decisions that go against you (somewhat like a blackjack player who only recalls the bad plays of other players that have hurt, rather than helped, his hand), it seems like my decisions to bet into a mildly scary board invariably result in a raise behind, where my decisions to check result in a lost bet.In making the decision, I usually try to think of the axiomatic "what hand could he possibly call with that I could beat..." But, at low limits, that's a bit subjective. I'm often surprised at what people will call with on the river...Here's a couple of hands, as an example. What would you guys do here?PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver) Preflop: NYIsles_fcp is MP3 with Js, Jc. 2 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, NYIsles_fcp caps, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls. Flop: (17.50 SB) 9h, 2c, 7d (4 players) UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, NYIsles_fcp bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls. Turn: (10.75 BB) 5h (4 players) UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, NYIsles_fcp bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls. River: (14.75 BB) 6s (4 players) UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, NYIsles_fcp ????? **********************************************PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver) Preflop: NYIsles_fcp is Button with 9h, 9c. UTG raises, 3 folds, NYIsles_fcp 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls. Flop: (7.50 SB) As, 9d, Th (2 players) UTG bets, NYIsles_fcp calls. Turn: (4.75 BB) Jh (2 players) UTG bets, NYIsles_fcp raises, UTG calls. River: (8.75 BB) Ac (2 players) UTG bets, NYIsles_fcp raises, UTG 3-bets, NYIsles_fcp ?????Thanks in advance for your thoughts...

[Zach6668 513]

Wow... the first hand isn't as easy as it seems.If I had enough of a read on them to know that they'd donk with a straight, I'd fire all day.I don't get into many spots where I have 4 people at showdown, since I mostly play SH.The upside to a bet here, is that with 3 potential callers, it doesn't have to be correct very often.Can we fold to a raise though? I imagine there's nothing we can beat, but the pot is massive, so I'd hate to throw it away and see some retarded bluff.What happens a lot to me in these spots, is I'll bet, a couple players will just call, and I'll assume I have the best hand, and then someone will show me a retarded 2 pair or something.Basically, I'm undecided on hand 1, but I lead towards a value bet.************Hand 2 is tough too. His line is so retarded.AJ and AT are so possible. He donks the flop, which means he got a piece of it, at least. But he doesn't 3-bet when you raise the turn. Most players would 3-bet 2 pair there. Could be be that scared of the straight? I guess you did play it quite a bit like KQs.Basically, it comes down to whether or not we think we're ahead on this river 50% of the time. If we are, we can cap. If he'd do this with just Ax, then I think we can cap. Let me run a quick stove.Most people cap AK, JJ, and maybe TT, but I don't think we can rule any of those out. Although JJ would be very unlikely.Well, against this range (JJ-TT,A8s+,A9o+), we're only 48%, so we'd actually be losing money on this river by capping. I think it's pretty good, if not too loose.A bit tighter range for an UTG raiser, given the flop and turn play, would be (JJ-TT,ATs+,AJo+), which actually gives us better equity, at 55%.If he's a moron, and you can include other Ax hands like this, then we can prolly 3-bet a bit more easily, but as it stands, vs an unknown, I think it's just a call.

[Zach6668 513]

Also, I'm sorry that you are an Isles fan.

[NYIsles 0]

Also, I'm sorry that you are an Isles fan.

lol, thanks, Zach. It's OK, I'm old enough to remember the four straight cups, so I figure I've already experienced all the success one hockey fan should reasonably be allowed in a lifetime, lol...And thanks for your thorough analysis. I'll leave it open for awhile in case anyone else wants to chime in...

[KowboyKoop 0]

In hand #1 I'd probably check the river.............in hand #2 I probably put in as many bets as I can on the river...I think he plays pretty much any ace like this on the river..AK, AQ, AJ, AT, Ax suited.........with the pot size, I go ahead and cap the betting..if he hit a four outer on you.....so be it.

[Frez 0]

The first one is tough, but like Zach said, you only need to be right sometime in order for a bet to be mathematically correct. The preflop action is a little nuts though. What is UTG+1 RFIing, then capping preflop that he's going all the way with here? If it's AK, it almost must be AhKh for himn to call on the turn. And if MP2 is timid, he could have QQ here and be calling down, scared the cap may have meant AA or KK. You're hoping to be against TT, AK, and a busted draw. I'm not too worried about an 8 here, so in position I think I bet this river. OOP I would check/call.On the second, he sure could be on AK or AQ. JJ would be consistent with his play. He should have 3 bet the turn with AJ or AT. Perhaps he has AQ and was playing cautious, thinking you for AK, AJ or AT - now when another Ace comes on the river he may discount those hands a less likely since you would have to have the case Ace, so he bets out on the river. I would always raise on the river as you did, but when he 3 bets I get nervous and just call, unless I have information on him to the contrary.I'm also sorry you're an Isles fan, but I love your answer. As an Oilers fan, I'm going to steal that for the future. 5 cups in a 30 team league means that, assuming parity, I got to see 150 years worth of championships.

[NYIsles 0]

Thanks for your responses, guys. And yeah, Frez... we still trot out that "Drive For Five" slogan every so often, even though we've been doing so for a quarter century now, lol... Sorry about the Smyth thing, btw...Here were the results. I got both of them wrong, unfortunately...

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver) Preflop: NYIsles_fcp is MP3 with Js, Jc. 2 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, NYIsles_fcp caps, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls. Flop: (17.50 SB) 9h, 2c, 7d (4 players) UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, NYIsles_fcp bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls. Turn: (10.75 BB) 5h (4 players) UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, NYIsles_fcp bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls. River: (14.75 BB) 6s (4 players) UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, NYIsles_fcp checks. Final Pot: 14.75 BB Results: UTG+2 has Kh Qd (high card, king). MP1 has Qs 9s (one pair, nines). MP2 has As Kc (high card, ace). NYIsles_fcp has Js Jc (one pair, jacks). Outcome: NYIsles_fcp wins 14.75 BB.On this one, I was thinking along your lines, Kowboy... I've seen lots of situations where pocket queens played passively to the river when the pot was capped pf, in fear of kings or aces... But I probably only missed a call from the nines...PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver) Preflop: NYIsles_fcp is Button with 9h, 9c. UTG raises, 3 folds, NYIsles_fcp 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls. Flop: (7.50 SB) As, 9d, Th (2 players) UTG bets, NYIsles_fcp calls. Turn: (4.75 BB) Jh (2 players) UTG bets, NYIsles_fcp raises, UTG calls. River: (8.75 BB) Ac (2 players) UTG bets, NYIsles_fcp raises, UTG 3-bets, NYIsles_fcp caps, UTG calls. Final Pot: 16.75 BB Results: UTG has Jd Ah (full house, aces full of jacks). NYIsles_fcp has 9h 9c (full house, nines full of aces). Outcome: UTG wins 16.75 BB.

[Gene zzz 0]

I think it is your flop betting not the river that cost you also youcame out negative you have to cut the odds on hand one if you can. Also the raise on 2 was giving your hand to much, in 1/2 players bethands and are timid .