Official Toronto Maple Leafs Thread

[pezeveng 207]

Arp I hope u know i was only kidding about the trolling, i find it funny when people say that.

 

Dan u know Beckett was touted as the ace of that staff and even though Gonzalez had a short stint he was to be 1a behind Ortiz when they brought him in.

 

Return back to the point sometimes getting rid of proven stars can help a team create a new identity and thats what the leafs need.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Arp I hope u know i was only kidding about the trolling, i find it funny when people say that.

 

Dan u know Beckett was touted as the ace of that staff and even though Gonzalez had a short stint he was to be 1a behind Ortiz when they brought him in.

 

Return back to the point sometimes getting rid of proven stars can help a team create a new identity and thats what the leafs need.

 

Ya, I assumed you were kidding.

 

To be honest, I completely forgot AGonz was part of that deal. He was a great year when they dealt him (at least thats what I recall)

But I never thought of Beckett as the ace of that staff, always way too many inj issues.

 

I saw the deal as getting rid of very high salaries that werent paying off dividends. I think in baseball, esp when you're Boston, you can find great FA's every year, and replace whatever you take out. They took that money, reinvested in the offseason with players they deemed to be more what they wanted.

The problem with the Leafs-Phaneuf is....ok, trade him to Florida for next to nothing....take that 7million, and do what? Andrew McDonald just got 6million, would you really rather have him+1mill than Phaneuf? Take a look at this off seasons UFA, there aint much there.

 

If you think the Leafs can survive without Phaneuf or a comparable D, we disagree. I think they just get even worse.

[Zach6668 513]

That's the thing, all these people who want Phaneuf gone... they need to replace him with someone. It can't be Mark Fraser.

[mrdannyg 274]

MDG I will come back to you at the end of the year that Rasmus and Melky have not yet hit their peak potential.

 

Melky had a serious health problem last year and Rasmus just needs to clear his head.

 

Melky looking good so far.

 

Arp I hope u know i was only kidding about the trolling, i find it funny when people say that.

 

Dan u know Beckett was touted as the ace of that staff and even though Gonzalez had a short stint he was to be 1a behind Ortiz when they brought him in.

 

Return back to the point sometimes getting rid of proven stars can help a team create a new identity and thats what the leafs need.

 

Just because your evidence is correct doesn't mean it supports the premise. As a general statement, teams getting rid of very good players does not improve them, and comparing a team like the Red Sox, who have both the prospects and finances to make other trades, as well as the other roster pieces that allow them to take on some risk, and play in a league where great players are often available via trade or free agency, to the Leafs, who have...none of those things...is absurd at best.

 

The only reason to trade Phaneuf would be if you thought he wasn't very good, you thought he made the other players on his team play worse (which would also make him not very good), or his teammates hate him so much that they are unable to play a good team game because of him. The last point is a media creation - I would happily argue that no single player in any sport but basketball ever has that much effect on his teammates, and that the real reasons are more complex, so we make up an easy narrative.

 

he also led the team in rbi's. So batting avg and rbi's are not 2 tools used to decide on best hitter on a team.

 

Referencing 1-year batting average, on a team with a lot of injuries, is kind of like calling Rudy Gay the best player on the Raptors because he led them in points per minute. Well, it's actually much less relevant than that, since at least scoring is the whole point of basketball, whereas getting hits is a small proportion of baseball. Adding RBI's improves it slightly, though still almost pointless.

 

By WAR/game, Adrian Gonzalez was the 4th best hitter on the Red Sox (after Pedroia, Ortiz, Middlebrooks. I didn't count Shoppach and other small sample sizes). They were hurt, but considering career numbers, most would agree that Crawford and Ellsbury are also better offensive players.

 

Considering all factors, I think a fair assessment is that Adrian Gonzalez was the 5th-best offensive player on the Red Sox that year (better than Middlebrooks, even though he wasn't that year).

 

As far as pitching goes, Josh Beckett only pitched 127 innings (due to injury), so not sure he was really their "ace". But he could fairly be assessed as at least their second best pitcher (after Lester). He accumulated less WAR than Doubront, but he is a better pitcher than Doubront, no doubt. Buchholz had a poor year, though given their ages, you could argue that on a go-forward basis, he was a better bet than Beckett...that's close though and I'll give it to Beckett.

[digitalmonkey 929]

I bet Serge is loving all this Red Sox talk here lolol

[Zach6668 513]

There are WOWY charts produced somewhere on the Internet that show the Corsi or fenwick of every player who has played >x minutes with a certain player, say Phaneuf, and without them.

 

For example, one I saw yesterday, every single player, except two fourth line scrubs, on Columbus has a significantly worse Corsi with Jack Johnson than without him.

 

I would say it's very possible for one player to make his team worse.

 

That said, that's because Johnson isn't that great, but is used like a #1 d-man.

 

I don't know what Phaneuf's WOWY would be like, given that his CF% rel is -2.8, maybe he does a bit. I don't know.

[Dubey 1,035]

I haven't seen WOWY's for Phaneuf, but I do know he plays really tough minutes and has an abnormally high defensive zone start %. I think the analytics guys tend to be fairly positive about Phaneuf in general.

[mrdannyg 274]

There are WOWY charts produced somewhere on the Internet that show the Corsi or fenwick of every player who has played >x minutes with a certain player, say Phaneuf, and without them.

 

For example, one I saw yesterday, every single player, except two fourth line scrubs, on Columbus has a significantly worse Corsi with Jack Johnson than without him.

 

I would say it's very possible for one player to make his team worse.

 

That said, that's because Johnson isn't that great, but is used like a #1 d-man.

 

I don't know what Phaneuf's WOWY would be like, given that his CF% rel is -2.8, maybe he does a bit. I don't know.

 

To be clear, I think it is definitely possible for a player to make other players worse. But if the cause of that is his style of play (for instance, a ballhog, or a player often out of position), then that relates directly to the quality of that player in a way I'd differentiate from a narrative that people don't play as hard with Player B because he drives fancy cars or dates Elisha Cuthbert or is gay or whatever.

[pezeveng 207]

There are WOWY charts produced somewhere on the Internet that show the Corsi or fenwick of every player who has played >x minutes with a certain player, say Phaneuf, and without them.

 

For example, one I saw yesterday, every single player, except two fourth line scrubs, on Columbus has a significantly worse Corsi with Jack Johnson than without him.

 

I would say it's very possible for one player to make his team worse.

 

That said, that's because Johnson isn't that great, but is used like a #1 d-man.

 

I don't know what Phaneuf's WOWY would be like, given that his CF% rel is -2.8, maybe he does a bit. I don't know.

 

This is way over my head, I wonder if Chris know how the other players feel about him.

[Fenxis 99]

For example, one I saw yesterday, every single player, except two fourth line scrubs, on Columbus has a significantly worse Corsi with Jack Johnson than without him.

 

Makes all of the JJ for captain talk very interesting.

[digitalmonkey 929]

Phaneuf and Clarkson had a heated argument at least once.

[gruven 530]

Phaneuf and Clarkson had a heated argument at least once.

Based on who's info?

[digitalmonkey 929]

Based on who's info?

 

Hearsay. It allegedly happened in Anaheim.

[gruven 530]

Hearsay. It allegedly happened in Anaheim.

I asked. The answer was no. I believe the answer.

[serge 904]

Still in shock over whats happened..few comments:

 

Shanahan signing:

 

At first I was like meh..Another big name figure like Ken Dryden, comes in and nothing happens..HOwever I think its growing on me..While he doesnt have any team management experience, he is smart..Working in the NHL office for 5 years is huge experience, like Brian Burke..

 

Nonis and Carlyle

 

90 percent of pundits believe Carlyle should be fired and some Nonis as well...The one question I have for everyone, would they have fired Carlyle at the Olympic break?

 

At one point the Leafs were second in the division and the 3 seed...In 14 games from that spot, we ended up 9 points out of a playoff spot..

 

We can argue the Leafs cant compete when the pressure is on..Maybe a valid point...But do we judge the coach and the players on 14 games, or 68 games...

 

There are excuses like during that stretch we lost our best goalie, and he was playing hurt going into it...But excuses are for losers...I just dont think there needs to be a major overhaul...This lineup for 68 games was one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference...The stats guys can argue and say, but look at the shots...Well its not only the analytics that have to be determined..

[FCP Bob 1,312]

Still in shock over whats happened..few comments:

 

Shanahan signing:

 

At first I was like meh..Another big name figure like Ken Dryden, comes in and nothing happens..HOwever I think its growing on me..While he doesnt have any team management experience, he is smart..Working in the NHL office for 5 years is huge experience, like Brian Burke..

 

Nonis and Carlyle

 

90 percent of pundits believe Carlyle should be fired and some Nonis as well...The one question I have for everyone, would they have fired Carlyle at the Olympic break?

 

At one point the Leafs were second in the division and the 3 seed...In 14 games from that spot, we ended up 9 points out of a playoff spot..

 

We can argue the Leafs cant compete when the pressure is on..Maybe a valid point...But do we judge the coach and the players on 14 games, or 68 games...

 

There are excuses like during that stretch we lost our best goalie, and he was playing hurt going into it...But excuses are for losers...I just dont think there needs to be a major overhaul...This lineup for 68 games was one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference...The stats guys can argue and say, but look at the shots...Well its not only the analytics that have to be determined..

 

I would have fired Carlyle in the off season as would Dubey I think so probably not the right person to ask.

[serge 904]

I would have fired Carlyle in the off season as would Dubey I think so probably not the right person to ask.

 

ya but thats not relevant..Question is if the Leafs finish the last 14 games at .500..Maybe beat Tampa Bay in the first round and give Boston or whomever a run in the second round, do we fire Carlyle..

 

I think the answer is no..

 

I am also shocked that he still isnt fired, IF he is going to be fired.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

ya but thats not relevant..Question is if the Leafs finish the last 14 games at .500..Maybe beat Tampa Bay in the first round and give Boston or whomever a run in the second round, do we fire Carlyle..

 

I think the answer is no..

 

I am also shocked that he still isnt fired, IF he is going to be fired.

 

a lot depends on whether he has lost the players or not.

 

To me the best thing about them not making the playoffs is that Carlyle has to be toast now. If they sneak into the playoffs and he kept his job I think it would have been a disaster.

[digitalmonkey 929]

ya but thats not relevant..Question is if the Leafs finish the last 14 games at .500..Maybe beat Tampa Bay in the first round and give Boston or whomever a run in the second round, do we fire Carlyle..

 

I think the answer is no..

 

I am also shocked that he still isnt fired, IF he is going to be fired.

 

They have plenty of time to decide. Maybe they have their eye on someone who's still with another team. I don't think Shanahan is the type to make a rushed decision and I don't think he cares what the media or majority wants him to do. He's learned from some very well managed organizations. Hiring him is the best move MLSE has made in awhile.

[serge 904]

They have plenty of time to decide. Maybe they have their eye on someone who's still with another team. I don't think Shanahan is the type to make a rushed decision and I don't think he cares what the media or majority wants him to do. He's learned from some very well managed organizations. Hiring him is the best move MLSE has made in awhile.

 

I agree..Maybe they want to wait and see who is available..The main question is do they go for a rethread like we have recently like Carlyle and Wilson, or do we go without a non NHL experienced coach a la Dallas Eakins was in Edmonton...

 

I am not sure of which is better...If Dan Blysma is fired in Pittsburgh a week after being eliminated, is he a good candidate?

[digitalmonkey 929]

I agree..Maybe they want to wait and see who is available..The main question is do they go for a rethread like we have recently like Carlyle and Wilson, or do we go without a non NHL experienced coach a la Dallas Eakins was in Edmonton...

 

I am not sure of which is better...If Dan Blysma is fired in Pittsburgh a week after being eliminated, is he a good candidate?

 

Barry Trotz might be a good option. Naysayers will point to his lack of overall success with the Predators, but has Nashville ever had anyone who can score like Kessel? If someone like Trotz can teach the Leafs how to play a good defensive system without sacrificing the offense then that's who they need. It's hard to know when you don't know the personalities involved, though.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

Barry Trotz might be a good option. Naysayers will point to his lack of overall success with the Predators, but has Nashville ever had anyone who can score like Kessel? If someone like Trotz can teach the Leafs how to play a good defensive system without sacrificing the offense then that's who they need. It's hard to know when you don't know the personalities involved, though.

 

Trotz is thought of as a player's coach which is probably a good idea after having assholes for the last 2 coaches.

[serge 904]

This is the main issue with this team...Defensive system...Scoring isnt really an issue..Goaltending seems to be fine..Need a better defensive system not just the dman...Cant spend the game playing in our own zone and expect to score all our goals on the rush..

 

We dont get any garbage goals it seems like..I think the personnel for the most part doesnt need to change...Therefore Nonis isnt getting fired

[Zach6668 513]

I agree..Maybe they want to wait and see who is available..The main question is do they go for a rethread like we have recently like Carlyle and Wilson, or do we go without a non NHL experienced coach a la Dallas Eakins was in Edmonton...

 

I am not sure of which is better...If Dan Blysma is fired in Pittsburgh a week after being eliminated, is he a good candidate?

 

I can't make up my mind on Bylsma. He was so sharp in his first couple years here, but hasn't really found the results lately, though I don't know how much of that is on him vs Shero or the players. I think he tends to rely on scrubs a tad too much, especially when they're leading like in the last game.

 

This does a really good, simple job of explaining why that happens, and what leads to "score effects". http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2014/04/01/on-the-ducks-comeback-over-the-jets-and-why-score-effects-exist/

 

I tend to think of Bylsma has a pretty smart coach, but he still does the odd, sort of archaic thing when I'd prefer to see some more new-age, stats-based type thinking, if you know what I mean. On the whole, though, he is definitely above average as a coach.

 

Trotz is thought of as a player's coach which is probably a good idea after having assholes for the last 2 coaches.

 

I was going to say I wasn't sure on Trotz, so hard to gauge based just on Nashville. A players coach would definitely be good for Toronto, though.

 

This is the main issue with this team...Defensive system...Scoring isnt really an issue..Goaltending seems to be fine..Need a better defensive system not just the dman...Cant spend the game playing in our own zone and expect to score all our goals on the rush..

 

We dont get any garbage goals it seems like..I think the personnel for the most part doesnt need to change...Therefore Nonis isnt getting fired

 

I think Trotz can do that, as well. He had the benefit of Weber and Suter in Nashville for so many years, plus a string of insanely good goalies, so maybe his defensive-minded image is a bit skewed on those facts, but he does seem like a d-first coach, one who can implement a solid system. The catch is that it can't be stifling to the offensively gifted players. Nashville never had a Kessel, but they could never score, either.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Congratulations to former Maple Leaf Ron Francis on his new job as GM of the Carolina Hurricanes.