Bet Sizing With The Nuts Against An Aggressor

[sierradave 0]

$1/2 nl, local philly cardroom.Villain has $550, hero barely covers. Villain plays pretty loose preflop, likes getting his money in there on a draw and gambling it up. The stakes are low for him and he makes it clear that the money on the table doesn't matter.Hero is generally perceived as a TAG by this crowd, and has been card-dead for much of the night, so that's especially true when this hand comes up.Preflop, 7-handed, UTG limps, villain limps, Hero has KsQs, raises to $12. Cutoff and button fold, blinds fold, UTG and villain call.Flop (3 players, $36): As7s3sUTG checks, villain bets $50. Hero calls, UTG folds.Turn (2 players, $136): 9dVillain checks. Hero bets $75. Villain calls.River (2 players, $286): 6hVillain checks. Hero bets $125. Villain calls.I felt a little hamstrung by my table image here. I have the nut flush and the Qspades, meaning if villain is betting on the come with a flush draw, he's got at best a draw to the third nuts. Or in other words, he isn't betting on the come. He usually raises preflop with any pair, certainly with AA or 77, so the only set I was worried about was 33. Besides that, I figure to be up against two pair, a smaller flush, or a bluff. How do I get more/all of his stack in there?

[ActionFalko 0]

I raise the flop. If he really wants to draw to the third nuts let him pay for NOW. If he misses on the river he will not pay you. If he has a scared set he maybe plays with you. maybe even raises to "protect his hand". And you cant give someone with a FH-Draw a cheap card by just calling. And since he overbets the pot, he seems to have something. AND you have the nuts right know. Build the pot on the flop and then proceed from there on. BIG HAND BIG POT. You build a big pot by betting and raising.

[rdtedm 0]

I don't raise the flop, as the overbet generally looks like TPGK or two pair trying to protect against the flush. The turn we can bet around $100 to try and keep him in, and that sets us up for a bigger river bet. Your hand is somewhat disguised because the 4-flush didn't hit the board and so it's less likely that you have the flush.

[dms26 3]

I think you have to raise somewhere, against an aggressor probably the turn. It's the only way you're going to build a big pot so that you can get a nice value bet in on the river. You could also try betting 200-250 on the river, it may look like a desperation bluff and get called. Especially by a player who doesn't care about the money.

[crankin 0]

Granted, I play almost exclusively online, but I see the big overbet used a lot with middle and bottom pair trying to buy the pot. So, I'm ok with the flat call on the flop (even though, in this case, based on subsequent calls, it doesn't appear he has a smaller pair). As rdtedm said, I think you can bet around $100 on the turn, which would allow you to bet around $225 or so on the river. Is there any chance this villian would sense weakness if you just bet like $75 again on the river and then check/raise you? If so, then that's another option to get more money in.

[Naismith 0]

For me, the hero's call on the flop would scream "big hand". I prefer a raise there to represent something like AK or AQ because if he can't beat either of those hands, we're probably not getting a ton out of him anyway.I'd probably put closer to 2/3 or 3/4 pot on the turn, but I also never do less than 2/3. On the river, you can safely bet larger since he's probably not folding anything on the river that he called the turn with.

[crankin 0]

I think you have to raise somewhere, against an aggressor probably the turn. It's the only way you're going to build a big pot so that you can get a nice value bet in on the river. The problem here was that the villain went into check/call mode, so he couldn't raise the turn or river.You could also try betting 200-250 on the river, it may look like a desperation bluff and get called. Especially by a player who doesn't care about the money.Now that I think about it, I actually like this idea as well.

[Temporary Nuts 1]

People that live in philly can't play cards.Overbet all in on the flop and let him make the "Hero Call" on your "Bluff"

[dms26 3]

oops I thought villain lead the turn. I think OP could bet a little more on the turn then.

[Acid_Knight 2]

For me, the hero's call on the flop would scream "big hand". I prefer a raise there to represent something like AK or AQ because if he can't beat either of those hands, we're probably not getting a ton out of him anyway.I'd probably put closer to 2/3 or 3/4 pot on the turn, but I also never do less than 2/3. On the river, you can safely bet larger since he's probably not folding anything on the river that he called the turn with.

I agree with all of this.What hands would you raise his flop bet with if not with the nuts? I'm just curious.

[mtdesmoines 3]

$1/2 nl, local philly cardroom.Villain has $550, hero barely covers. Villain plays pretty loose preflop, likes getting his money in there on a draw and gambling it up. The stakes are low for him and he makes it clear that the money on the table doesn't matter.Hero is generally perceived as a TAG by this crowd, and has been card-dead for much of the night, so that's especially true when this hand comes up.Preflop, 7-handed, UTG limps, villain limps, Hero has KsQs, raises to $12. Cutoff and button fold, blinds fold, UTG and villain call.Flop (3 players, $36): As7s3sUTG checks, villain bets $50. Hero calls, UTG folds.Turn (2 players, $136): 9dVillain checks. Hero bets $75. Villain calls.River (2 players, $286): 6hVillain checks. Hero bets $125. Villain calls.I felt a little hamstrung by my table image here. I have the nut flush and the Qspades, meaning if villain is betting on the come with a flush draw, he's got at best a draw to the third nuts. Or in other words, he isn't betting on the come. He usually raises preflop with any pair, certainly with AA or 77, so the only set I was worried about was 33. Besides that, I figure to be up against two pair, a smaller flush, or a bluff. How do I get more/all of his stack in there?

Don't mind the smooth call on the flop, but I think you could have bet more on the turn which would have committed him for any river bet. As it was, he was committed to any bet on the river since the turn and river were essentially blanks for anything that overbets the flop.

[crankin 0]

What hands would you raise his flop bet with if not with the nuts? I'm just curious.

Good question. For me, this is villain/read dependent. Is this scenario, hero has been really card dead and then suddenly wakes up and is raising an overbet. Depending on villain, he could view that as frustration or "he finally hit something". In this specific situation, I like the flop call.If hero hadn't been card dead and villain was known to overbet the pot frequently, then I'd agree with the raise.If I'm in villain's shoes, the hero's flat call looks like top pair good kicker with a flush draw (or maybe a set afraid of the flush). I could see villain going into check/call pot control mode with something like two pair (hoping the four flush doesn't come).On the flip side, what hands do we reasonably expect that villain will call a (non-min) raise of an overbet with on the flop? A baby flush certainly, and possibly a set. I don't know, the fates have to really align well to get that situation. In this particular situation, I still think the flat call is better. But, I'm willing to be wrong.

[ActionFalko 0]

I agree with all of this.What hands would you raise his flop bet with if not with the nuts? I'm just curious.

I thought I am the only one here who would raise on the flop... glad that it is not the case...

[Acid_Knight 2]

Good question. For me, this is villain/read dependent. Is this scenario, hero has been really card dead and then suddenly wakes up and is raising an overbet. Depending on villain, he could view that as frustration or "he finally hit something". In this specific situation, I like the flop call.If hero hadn't been card dead and villain was known to overbet the pot frequently, then I'd agree with the raise.If I'm in villain's shoes, the hero's flat call looks like top pair good kicker with a flush draw (or maybe a set afraid of the flush). I could see villain going into check/call pot control mode with something like two pair (hoping the four flush doesn't come).On the flip side, what hands do we reasonably expect that villain will call a (non-min) raise of an overbet with on the flop? A baby flush certainly, and possibly a set. I don't know, the fates have to really align well to get that situation. In this particular situation, I still think the flat call is better. But, I'm willing to be wrong.

I think that it's important for the Hero to ask himself, "what would I raise this bet with?"Also as Naismith pointed out, if the Villain can't beat an AK/AQ type of hand, we're not getting a lot of money from him anyway. I think you raise this flop every time, let him put you on a hand like that and push to "protect" his 2 pair.

[crankin 0]

I think that it's important for the Hero to ask himself, "what would I raise this bet with?"Also as Naismith pointed out, if the Villain can't beat an AK/AQ type of hand, we're not getting a lot of money from him anyway. I think you raise this flop every time, let him put you on a hand like that and push to "protect" his 2 pair.

This still seems villain (and hero) dependent. If villain is known to overbet regularly, then he's also likely to get played back at fairly regular, so a raise here would make a lot of sense. In this specific situation, what would a TAG player that's been card dead raise this bet with? If we believe villain may believe we are frustrated and raising to drive him out, then raise away. But, if hero isn't the type to tilt like that, wouldn't villain interpret a raise here as extreme strength?I agree that there are plenty of times that this is a raise. I'm just not convinced that it is here. Maybe OP can lend some more insight into hero/villain play habits and perceptions.

[sierradave 0]

What hands would you raise his flop bet with if not with the nuts? I'm just curious.

AK with the K of spades, a set, or a smaller flush. I would probably be calling with a decent ace against this opponent.I agree that my choices were between raising him on the flop and betting $100/$200 on the turn/river. My thinking at the time was that he either had a smaller flush, two pair, a bluff, or a set, in that order. I called on the flop expecting that he'd fire again with the smaller flush, the set, and possibly the bluff. At that point I could raise him, getting all the chips committed against the first two and extracting an extra bet from the third. I also gave a little consideration to letting UTG stay in on the flop, as he was one of the main targets at the table, but in retrospect that was kind of foolish, as UTG would be getting all his chips in regardless if he had the smaller flush and folding just about anything else whether I called or raised.When he checked the turn, my feel was that he had at best two pair, possibly a decent ace like A10 with the 10 of spades. His call was reluctant, as was his river call. He spent the next 15 minutes complaining about how he knew I had the flush and he shouldn't have called my river bet (he had A7o for top two on the flop). That said, I think $100/$200 would have gotten the same crying calls, so that's about $100 in missed value.I think I like a min-raise on the flop best. My hunch is that would look enough like AK with the redraw that it would have prompted a move-in from sets, smaller flushes, and two pair (two pair only from this particular aggressor. I don't expect that to work as often). Worst of all, by just calling the flop and betting relatively small on the turn, I risked another spade coming and completely killing my action... sort of a modified example of the "we don't wait for safe cards" rule. On the turn and the river, he had only 4 outs to a win, but he also had 8 outs to an easy fold.thanks for the feedback, guys...

[crankin 0]

I think I like a min-raise on the flop best. My hunch is that would look enough like AK with the redraw that it would have prompted a move-in from sets, smaller flushes, and two pair (two pair only from this particular aggressor. I don't expect that to work as often). Worst of all, by just calling the flop and betting relatively small on the turn, I risked another spade coming and completely killing my action... sort of a modified example of the "we don't wait for safe cards" rule. On the turn and the river, he had only 4 outs to a win, but he also had 8 outs to an easy fold.

Ok, with this nugget of knowledge, I would like to humbly change my vote from call to raise.

[Acid_Knight 2]

AK with the K of spades, a set, or a smaller flush. I would probably be calling with a decent ace against this opponent.I agree that my choices were between raising him on the flop and betting $100/$200 on the turn/river. My thinking at the time was that he either had a smaller flush, two pair, a bluff, or a set, in that order. I called on the flop expecting that he'd fire again with the smaller flush, the set, and possibly the bluff. At that point I could raise him, getting all the chips committed against the first two and extracting an extra bet from the third. I also gave a little consideration to letting UTG stay in on the flop, as he was one of the main targets at the table, but in retrospect that was kind of foolish, as UTG would be getting all his chips in regardless if he had the smaller flush and folding just about anything else whether I called or raised.When he checked the turn, my feel was that he had at best two pair, possibly a decent ace like A10 with the 10 of spades. His call was reluctant, as was his river call. He spent the next 15 minutes complaining about how he knew I had the flush and he shouldn't have called my river bet (he had A7o for top two on the flop). That said, I think $100/$200 would have gotten the same crying calls, so that's about $100 in missed value.I think I like a min-raise on the flop best. My hunch is that would look enough like AK with the redraw that it would have prompted a move-in from sets, smaller flushes, and two pair (two pair only from this particular aggressor. I don't expect that to work as often). Worst of all, by just calling the flop and betting relatively small on the turn, I risked another spade coming and completely killing my action... sort of a modified example of the "we don't wait for safe cards" rule. On the turn and the river, he had only 4 outs to a win, but he also had 8 outs to an easy fold.thanks for the feedback, guys...

If you think that his most likely hand is a smaller flush or 2 pair, you should raise the flop like 100% of the time. If he has a smaller flush, you should get all of his money. If he has 2 pair, you'll get more by raising the flop and letting him think you have AK or something. By flat calling, you risk a spade rolling off on the turn and killing your action from the smaller flush or 2 pair.The thing that you should say to yourself is "if he has a small flush or 2 pair, how much does he like his hand now?" and if the answer is that he'll like it more on the flop than on later streets, then it's time to start raising!Either way, nice hand.

[Naismith 0]

I don't know, man. I think if you're raising with the AK, you have to be raising the flush. Certainly, his overbet on the flop suggests to me that he's protecting. He's not protecting with a hand that can't beat AK since AK is such a likely hand for you here.I'm not being results-oriented here, but the only way I think you can justify not raising here is that you thought this guy might put you on just the draw and keep firing. Still, what's the point? He's firing out > pot sized bet into the pre-flop raiser...I don't see him doing this often with a hand that can't beat AK.

[sierradave 0]

The thing that you should say to yourself is "if he has a small flush or 2 pair, how much does he like his hand now?" and if the answer is that he'll like it more on the flop than on later streets, then it's time to start raising!

Agreed completely. My thought process at the time was more along the lines of "I have the nuts." "He didn't actually just bet out at me on this hand, did he?" "[devolves into maniacal internal laughter...]" That is, in retrospect, maybe not the ideal thought process for maximizing my win rate.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Agreed completely. My thought process at the time was more along the lines of "I have the nuts." "He didn't actually just bet out at me on this hand, did he?" "[devolves into maniacal internal laughter...]" That is, in retrospect, maybe not the ideal thought process for maximizing my win rate.

Reference what Naismith said above. When people overbet a flop like that into the raiser, they can usually beat 1 pair. Raisy Daisy.

[sabes99 0]

If you think that his most likely hand is a smaller flush or 2 pair, you should raise the flop like 100% of the time. If he has a smaller flush, you should get all of his money. If he has 2 pair, you'll get more by raising the flop and letting him think you have AK or something. By flat calling, you risk a spade rolling off on the turn and killing your action from the smaller flush or 2 pair.

bingo...i didn't mind smooth-calling the flop to represent a draw until it was said that we think villain's most likely hand is a flush/set/2 pair...then it should be an easy raise, and probably a big raise too to make it look as if we are really trying to protect against a spade