Insane In The Sb Brain

[Lavitz 0]

It will never be -EV. We arent checking to the river to make a move.

We're never folding this hand by river yet we're giving opponents correct odds to chase by not even betting, thus bad for our expected value?

[Royal_Tour 0]

We're never folding this hand by river yet we're giving opponents correct odds to chase by not even betting, thus bad for our expected value?

we are betting.The idea (if you can call it one) is to make sure i string at least 1 player along for the entire ride of my double up.Instead of making it a mistake for him to call with a FD, i want to give him a better reason to chase. I win this hand from this flop vs a nut fd 3 out of 4 times.meaning my "EV" if u wanna call it that is x2 of my investment. I will never lose money in this situation.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Instead of making it a mistake for him to call with a FD, i want to give him a better reason to chase.

NO YOU DON'T!!!!!!! If your bet doesn't offer them worse pot odds, you ****ed up!Dude, I know you've been playing long enough to understand this. You do not want them to have the right odds to draw you out. You especially do not want them to make a mindless call against you becuase you gave them 4-1 to call and they're like "Oh, wow, I don't even have to worry about implied odds here, this guy gave me the right odds to draw to my flush on the next card alone! I can just fold if he goes all in on the turn and I'm not getting the right odds..."Also, you win against a flush draw closer to 2/3 times, not 3/4 times.

[mtdesmoines 3]

we are betting.The idea (if you can call it one) is to make sure i string at least 1 player along for the entire ride of my double up.Instead of making it a mistake for him to call with a FD, i want to give him a better reason to chase. I win this hand from this flop vs a nut fd 3 out of 4 times.meaning my "EV" if u wanna call it that is x2 of my investment. I will never lose money in this situation.

Better yet, push all in and price two flush draws into calling, and sit back and watch as they eat each others' outs. Even if they do turn their flush, that gives you awesome odds for the board to pair on the river.

[KramitDaToad 0]

NO YOU DON'T!!!!!!! If your bet doesn't offer them worse pot odds, you ****ed up!Dude, I know you've been playing long enough to understand this. You do not want them to have the right odds to draw you out. You especially do not want them to make a mindless call against you becuase you gave them 4-1 to call and they're like "Oh, wow, I don't even have to worry about implied odds here, this guy gave me the right odds to draw to my flush on the next card alone! I can just fold if he goes all in on the turn and I'm not getting the right odds..."

Can someone supply the page number from the Theory of Poker: "I make money when my opponents make mistakes"

[Royal_Tour 0]

NO YOU DON'T!!!!!!! If your bet doesn't offer them worse pot odds, you ****ed up!Dude, I know you've been playing long enough to understand this. You do not want them to have the right odds to draw you out. You especially do not want them to make a mindless call against you becuase you gave them 4-1 to call and they're like "Oh, wow, I don't even have to worry about implied odds here, this guy gave me the right odds to draw to my flush on the next card alone! I can just fold if he goes all in on the turn and I'm not getting the right odds..."Also, you win against a flush draw closer to 2/3 times, not 3/4 times.

Duuude, I know everything you are saying. (kermit, i've read the book, and several others)Here is what you guys are missing. I want to double up. So where is the difference if the money goes in on both the flop and turn? If he has a FD His odds dont change just because he gets a better price. KK vs Ah9h on a Kh 7h, 4c board is 75/25 me.Obviously if i make a pot sized bet and he calls, he makes a mistake. But at that point i'm commited and we're seeing 5th street anyways.So what do i gain by making him call a pot sized bet? Do i get to call him names if he hits his flush?Acid: If you're in my spot and 1 villain has air, and the other has the Nut flush draw, you want to get all the money in here before the river right? (please tell me you want all your chips in the middle.)Are you folding if a heart peels off on the turn? You guys make it sound like his winning % goes up because he gets 3.5:1 instead of 2:1 on the call. I know the price you need to draw, I know you want your opponents to make mistakes.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Here is what you guys are missing. I want to double up. So where is the difference if the money goes in on both the flop and turn?

Here is what you're missing. Doubling up is not the point of playing poker. If not enough money goes in on the flop, then they're not making a mistake calling you. Maybe the turn blanks, you shove and they fold. Maybe the turn completes their flush, they shove and you call and draw out or don't. None of that really matters. All that matters is if your money goes in good or bad. If your money goes in good, you're not making a mistake. Poker is a zero-sum game (less the rake) and their gain is your loss. If you don't bet enough, in the long run, you're losing money. Bottom line.

If he has a FD His odds dont change just because he gets a better price. KK vs Ah9h on a Kh 7h, 4c board is 75/25 me.

Of course they do! They're called pot odds. Obviously the odds of him making his flush are independant of whether you go all in or check it down, but that's not what we look at in poker. All that matters is the price the pot is laying him compared to the odds that he'll make his draw. It is your job to set a price where it's incorrect to call. Really, your goal should be to bet the largest amount that he will incorrectly call. If you bet too little, he's not making a mistake and he makes money in the long run.

Obviously if i make a pot sized bet and he calls, he makes a mistake. But at that point i'm commited and we're seeing 5th street anyways.

Explain how this is relevant. He's made a mistake. You profit from his mistake. Even if he makes his flush on the turn (after calling incorrectly) and shoves, you'll be given the odds that you need to try and make a boat. He's made another mistake here becuase he is giving you the correct price to outdraw him. Whether or not you don't (or he doesn't) have enough chips to offer the incorrect price doesn't matter. The fact will remain that you will have put in money on the flop where he made a mistake to call you. Then on the turn, when he gets lucky, he cannot cause you to make a mistake becuase there isn't enough money behind. You win twice by playing perfectly on the flop AND turn while he makes 2 mistakes.

So what do i gain by making him call a pot sized bet? Do i get to call him names if he hits his flush?

Profit in the long run. The only thing that matters.

Acid: If you're in my spot and 1 villain has air, and the other has the Nut flush draw, you want to get all the money in here before the river right? (please tell me you want all your chips in the middle.)Are you folding if a heart peels off on the turn?

Of course I want my chips in the middle. Any way I play this hand, they'll all be in there on the turn. The point of making a big enough bet on the flop is for 2 reasons. The first is that he will be making a mistake chasing the flush when he calls. The second is that on the turn, if he does call, the pot will be big enough that we'll have correct odds to call all-in if a heart falls, even if he flips over his hand and we see he's turned the nut flush.

You guys make it sound like his winning % goes up because he gets 3.5:1 instead of 2:1 on the call. I know the price you need to draw, I know you want your opponents to make mistakes.

Winning % does not matter. His profit goes up if he gets the 4:1 that you offer him. Long Term Profit >>>>>> Winning Percentage.

[KramitDaToad 0]

What you are doing is taking 2 events (the flop bet and turn bet) and combining them into one based on the assumption that all the money is going in anyway due to your short stack.However they are still 2 seperate events and need to be treated as such. The turn bet is a seperate event with additional information.Because your stack is shortish there is not much wriggle room but it is possible that all the money doesn't go in. If we work on the assumption that one villain has a flush draw the way he makes a mistake is to call more than his pot odds + his implied odds allow him too. That's a givenThe way you make a mistake is by betting small enough on the flop so that it's profitable for him to call. There are only 2 people that are going to make a profit here, you and 'not you'. Any profit 'not you' makes comes out of yours. He has a % of the existing pot and you are charging him less than it's worth. When the flush does complete it is then incorrect for you to call a large turn bet and you should actually fold (based on the fundamental theorem of poker), relinquishing your equity in the pot.Or, unlikely as it is given your reads, however the villain may realise that he needs about 4-1 to call the turn and fold when you shove. Meaning he plays correctly. Remember your read is less than 1 orbit old as well an there is no accounting for random donk events.There is no doubt you will make money here, you simply want to maximise that profit

[Acid_Knight 2]

Because your stack is shortish there is not much wriggle room but it is possible that all the money doesn't go in.

In no way should there ever be a series of events where Royal doesn't get all in here. He'll either do it on the flop if he's raised or he'll do it on the turn, regardless of what card rolls off.

[krup24 0]

Of course you are! You are the one with the made hand. You are the one who should be offering them incorrect prices to draw. If you bet $40, giving them 4-1 to improve on the next card, they make a mistake BY FOLDING a flush draw. You job in a poker hand is to make bets that cause your opponents to make mistakes. Here you are the one making the mistake.

Don't wanna get too involved here but this is very very important. Basically the fundamental of Skalansky's Book of NL Cash. Its a great read on odds and EV.

[Naismith 0]

I think the problem we have here is short sightedness vs the big picture.Ignore this specific hand for one second. The objective in poker is to get your opponent to put money in as often as possible getting inappropriate odds to improve his hand to a winner. If you consistently give a 3:1 dog 4:1 on his money, he will win in the long run. If you consistently give a 3:1 dog 2:1 on his money, you will win in the long run. It's difficult at times to seperate the big picture from the specific hand you're playing in. I'm sure at the time, you were thinking about doubling up in that exact spot. Maximizing profit in a hand is important, of course, but this isn't a tournament. You don't *need* to double up to stay alive. If you let the opponents make the correct play "just this once" and then the next time you have a set, they make the correct play "just this once", eventually you have a bunch of "just this onces" that loses you a lot of money.Where is Zach to give us some poker cliches that are loosely applicable?

[Royal_Tour 0]

If you consistently give a 3:1 dog 4:1 on his money, he will win in the long run. If you consistently give a 3:1 dog 2:1 on his money, you will win in the long run.

You guys are missing what i'm getting at. I KNOW everything we have covered. IMO, i'm trying to approach this differently because I want all my money in, and the slight chance that he folds a draw because he wasnt getting good enough odds is losing some EV. (just in this 1 spot, not always)Naismith, this makes little sense. You need to always get your 3:1 draw in with 3:1 on your money to make it breakeven/profitable. if we played this hand 1,000,000 times over where i have 180.00 vs 2 other players who both cover. 1 of which always has a FD. I will win this hand 750,000 timesI'm am not giving him 4:1 from my stack. He's not getting 25 cents on the dollar here. He will always be drawing as a 3:1 dog.

[KramitDaToad 0]

In no way should there ever be a series of events where Royal doesn't get all in here. He'll either do it on the flop if he's raised or he'll do it on the turn, regardless of what card rolls off.

Appreciate that, I'm talking about all the money though - villain's as well

[Acid_Knight 2]

You guys are missing what i'm getting at. I KNOW everything we have covered. IMO, i'm trying to approach this INCORRECTLY because I want all my money in, and the slight chance that he folds a draw because he wasnt getting good enough odds is losing some EV. (just in this 1 spot, not always)Naismith, this makes little sense. You need to always get your 3:1 draw in with 3:1 on your money to make it breakeven/profitable. if we played this hand 1,000,000 times over where i have 180.00 vs 2 other players who both cover. 1 of which always has a FD. I will win this hand 750,000 timesI'm am not giving him 4:1 from my stack. He's not getting 25 cents on the dollar here. He will always be drawing as a 3:1 dog.

FYP

[nomad_monad 0]

i understand what you're going for Royal but here's where it starts to break downyou lead for 40, let's say just one of them calls with a FDpot = ~185 on the turneffective stacks are now ~105if the FD hits, you're not folding, but you're betting/calling to outdraw with worse odds than you gave him. assuming you don't think of the money you've already put in the pot as dead money but rather as a two part process of getting him to get AI with you, then yes, your total equity over all 5 cards doesn't change and you come out ahead. except, this relies on one really important assumption - that villain tags along with you when you shove the turn even if he hasn't hit his FD. if he folds, the money only gets AI when you're the underdog and you can't think about equity in this hand over all 5 cards, all the time.you bet 105 on the turn, pot becomes 290 giving villain a bit worse than 3-1 to hit his flush on the river with no implied odds. maybe he still doesn't fold there, but if he doesn't then he's probably going with you anyway on a bigger flop bet/flop push, while at the same time, the risk of him folding the turn when you bet small on the flop isn't totally insignificant. this really wrecks the expectation you're basing the decision on.

[David_Nicoson 1]

Naismith, this makes little sense. You need to always get your 3:1 draw in with 3:1 on your money to make it breakeven/profitable. if we played this hand 1,000,000 times over where i have 180.00 vs 2 other players who both cover. 1 of which always has a FD. I will win this hand 750,000 timesI'm am not giving him 4:1 from my stack. He's not getting 25 cents on the dollar here. He will always be drawing as a 3:1 dog.

If y'all were doing a physics problem, this would be arguing about where to place the datum. A guy drops a cat off the roof of a 100m tall building. How long does it take the cat to land on the ground?You can set this problem with the top of the building as d=0 and the cat lands at d=-100m. Or you can set the set the problem up with the ground as d=0 and the top of the building as d=+100m. It doesn't, in the end, make any difference.Royal is right that he gains incrementally for every amount the he bets and the villain calls as compared to not betting.Naismith, et al. are right that the hero loses money when he bets an amount the villain can call justified by pot odds as compared to betting more. From a strictly pot-odds standpoint, the villain makes a mistake even drawing at 4:1, since he has dirty outs against the set. With cards exposed, the (assuming there's just one) villain breaks even when he gets 5.6 : 1. I think practically it's clear that the villain makes a good play by drawing for 4:1 here with implied odds such as they are. If the hero offers exactly the right pot odds, the villain can't make a FTOP mistake by folding or calling, only raising. The argument for a big bet on the flop is that we want to encourage a big mistake on the part of the villain, not a small one. If the point of the weak lead is to induce a raise, I don't think there's anything theoretical to argue about there.

[Naismith 0]

If y'all were doing a physics problem, this would be arguing about where to place the datum. A guy drops a cat off the roof of a 100m tall building. How long does it take the cat to land on the ground?You can set this problem with the top of the building as d=0 and the cat lands at d=-100m. Or you can set the set the problem up with the ground as d=0 and the top of the building as d=+100m. It doesn't, in the end, make any difference.Royal is right that he gains incrementally for every amount the he bets and the villain calls as compared to not betting.Naismith, et al. are right that the hero loses money when he bets an amount the villain can call justified by pot odds as compared to betting more. From a strictly pot-odds standpoint, the villain makes a mistake even drawing at 4:1, since he has dirty outs against the set. With cards exposed, the (assuming there's just one) villain breaks even when he gets 5.6 : 1. I think practically it's clear that the villain makes a good play by drawing for 4:1 here with implied odds such as they are. If the hero offers exactly the right pot odds, the villain can't make a FTOP mistake by folding or calling, only raising. The argument for a big bet on the flop is that we want to encourage a big mistake on the part of the villain, not a small one. If the point of the weak lead is to induce a raise, I don't think there's anything theoretical to argue about there.

Man, you just shot holes through the entire debate.Haha. Shot holes.

[NoBBiR 0]

Man, you just shot holes through the entire debate.Haha. Shot holes.

Hahaha - dick move.There is another problem with your arguement royal. Betting so that your opponent is making a mistake on the flop by calling you is one, but you should also be looking to get quite a bit more in on the flop incase your opponent does not have specifically a flush draw and folds the turn. The times that that happens and he folds the turn after you bet 1/2 the pot lose you money. If you bet the pot on the flop, he's probably not laying down the nut flush anyway and he may fold the turn if you act strong. You want as much of your money in though, before your villian hits the flush if that is indeed what he is drawing to. I don't like pricing my opponent in and then shoving when I'm sure he got there. It's much more calming to my nerves if I know I got it all in on the before he got there.