2/4 Plo (6 Max) Naked Overpair Facing A Weak Raise

[Merby 3]

Button is 16/8 through 38 hands. He is listed as a LOOSE BOMB in Poker Edge. No independent reads on his play yet.Normally this is an easy fold, but it reeks like a "let me buy a free card" sort of raise with some weak to moderate draw (like a naked nut flush draw or OESD). Part of me wanted to punish him with a pot 3-bet.Thoughts?PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)BB ($310.25)UTG ($386.40)Hero ($2217)CO ($109.30)Button ($515.40)SB ($1340.15)Preflop: Hero is MP with , , , . 1 fold, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, Button calls $14, 2 folds.Flop: ($34) , , (2 players)Hero bets $32, Button raises to $88, Hero...?

[deadlysyns 0]

easy fold.All you have is a overpair, no redraws or anything. I wouldnt even be raising PF with your hand.

[simo_8ball 0]

I think I like calling the flop raise and then bet/folding a blank turn. On the turn he is unlikely to raise you with a draw, but will almost certainly raise a set.

[BudBundy 0]

I am folding too. Two hearts make me uncomfortable. Make it Q73r flop and i am more like to call

[iggymcfly 0]

Meh, I'd just fold this. You never what can be going through these nits minds. I think this could easily be two pair or even QQ. If you're not going to fold, calling and pushing a safe turn is way better than 3-betting the flop. If you 3-bet the flop, you only punish yourself since you're still about a 60/40 dog against most draws that raise here. Seriously though, don't get fancy here. Just get out of the pot.BTW, to Bud, calling or raising on a Q73 rainbow flop would be 10x worse than doing it on this flop. The only thing we're in decent shape against here is draws. On a rainbow flop, we're pretty much guaranteed to be behind.

[BudBundy 0]

Meh, I'd just fold this. You never what can be going through these nits minds. I think this could easily be two pair or even QQ. If you're not going to fold, calling and pushing a safe turn is way better than 3-betting the flop. If you 3-bet the flop, you only punish yourself since you're still about a 60/40 dog against most draws that raise here. Seriously though, don't get fancy here. Just get out of the pot.BTW, to Bud, calling or raising on a Q73 rainbow flop would be 10x worse than doing it on this flop. The only thing we're in decent shape against here is draws. On a rainbow flop, we're pretty much guaranteed to be behind.

I was thinking about him making a play at us. He is more likely to raise our c-bet with top pair or complete air on a Q73r flop. Because he won't repot it with QQ or 77 on a Q73. He will want to get called and bet smaller or he can even flat call on that flop. But i agree that would be more of a read based play.

[Merby 3]

Some insanity took a grip of me, and I got fancy.I 3-bet pot to $296.30, and after a moderate pause (~20-30 seconds) he ships it for $501.40. Oops.I am now faced with calling $205.10 to win a pot of $828.70. Obviously, I am crushed, but I'm getting 4:1 odds to call. Is this sufficient to force us to call here, or do we fold. The last thing I want to do is follow up my horrible mistake of my flop check-raise with making the wrong call/fold decision here.My problem now, is that since the board is relatively coordinated (flush draw and straight draw flop, but no made flushes or straights), I may be up against a monster draw, where I would have the odds to call. On the other hand, if he has a set, I don't have the odds. My question here: are these sufficient odds against his range.

[simo_8ball 0]

Is it even POSSIBLE to be more than a 4:1 dog in PLO?I'd call. I think you're looking at a big draw a decent enough % of the time which should make the call ok.

[Merby 3]

Is it even POSSIBLE to be more than a 4:1 dog in PLO?I'd call. I think you're looking at a big draw a decent enough % of the time which should make the call ok.

Yeah, my thinking exactly... I used my timer and timed down to like 20 seconds remaining, but no matter how I looked at it, I couldn't find a way to avoid calling.I called and he turned over [9c 8h Qd Ah] (top pair, GSSD, NFD). This was about as good as I could have hoped: he's a 69% favourite for the hand.Turn and river were both aces, and he took it down.Bottom line: Fancy play syndrome cost me $500The moral of the story: A stone-cold bluff 3-bet is *very* minus EV, no matter how weak you think your opponent is.

[iggymcfly 0]

I was thinking about him making a play at us. He is more likely to raise our c-bet with top pair or complete air on a Q73r flop. Because he won't repot it with QQ or 77 on a Q73. He will want to get called and bet smaller or he can even flat call on that flop. But i agree that would be more of a read based play.

I repot QQ and 77 in that spot about 95% of the time. Putting villain on air there is making a pretty big assumption.

[Merby 3]

I repot QQ and 77 in that spot about 95% of the time. Putting villain on air there is making a pretty big assumption.

The issue was that the villain made a weak raise that wasn't anywhere near a repot. Unfortunately for me, this seemed to trigger the FPS* switch in my head.*FPS = Fancy Play Syndrome

[iggymcfly 0]

I was talking about Bud's hypothetical, not the actual hand. We all have our FPS switches though. Mine lately has been the 1/2 pot lead in a reraised pot. I've come over the top twice there with naked flush draws and both times, villain had AA or KK with a better flush draw. Luckily, I managed to suck out a running two pair on one of them so my mistakes didn't end up costing me.

[BudBundy 0]

I repot QQ and 77 in that spot about 95% of the time. Putting villain on air there is making a pretty big assumption.

Why do you repot QQ or 77 on a Q73r flop?

[iggymcfly 0]

For value. To get more chips in with the best hand. So that someone with an overpair gets suspicious and stacks off with me. Because even on that "dry" flop, there are still 12 scare cards that could kill my action from a lower set and 32 scare cards that could kill my action from Q7. Because if I do call the flop and raise the turn that looks even stronger to a good player and could cause them to make a big laydown that they wouldn't have made on the flop.