Fenxis 99 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 2 wins in a rowTime to plan the parade route!Meh.. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 I've been meaning to do this for a while but have put it off till now. I wanted to make a post on what I think the Sens should do going forward. Now, someone like Serge will tell you this team needs to be blown up but that's just not possible with their contracts. Now we all know Serge is crazy but this team does need to be shaken up but not blown up and it is possible to do.Currently the team sits in the 27th spot in the league with 37 points after 43 games played. That means we have a shot at Tavares or Hedman but the team has played better of late, has games in hand and I doubt the will finish in the bottom 5. That being said I highly doubt they will make the playoffs so it is time to build for next year.Players we should be trying to trade this year:Vermette: He just hasn't proven he can be a top 6 forward on this team and at 2.763 million dollars its time he was given a change of scenery. His play this year has decreased his value but he is signed on next season and is a a very good penalty killer. His play has improved of late so we might be able to get a bit more for him at the trade deadline.Neil: He's in his last year and at 29 we should be looking at younger and cheaper players to fill his position. He makes 1.1 million and might be looking for a bit more next year. Try and trade him to a team looking for 3rd and 4th line grit entering the playoffs.Schubert: He has a year left after this year and might be hard to find any takers. He is affordable though at a hit of 0.883 million. He can also play forward or defence so a team might want him for some insurance entering the playoffs. I don't see him long term on our back end and up front he's very replaceable.McAmmond: I like McAmmond and what he has brought to our team but at 35 and in his last year it's probably time to let him go. He's been everywhere and a playoff bound team might want him for his experience on theur 3rd or 4th line. Maybe he'll get to win his first cup.Kuba: He's are best trade asset and at 3 million he's very affordable. He will get us the best return and I could easily see a team like Vancouver trading for him. He could probably get us a prospect and a pick and we should definitely be aiming for that.Gerber: With Elliot playing fairly well Gerber's time in Ottawa is over. It doesn't look like anyone wants him but I'd take anything for him. We got Elliot with the 2nd last pick in his draft year so you never know. A 7th for him can't hurt considering he won't be back next year.So I'm not really up to date with all of Ottawa's current prospects, if we really even have any, but I will try and do my best to outline what the team should look like next year.*Note* The number in brackets beside a player name indicates his age at the start of NEXT season. Also, a player in black is a returning player from last years roster and one in red is a FA, Binghamton call up or draft pick.ForwardsPlayer/Age/Cap Hit1. Dany Heatly (28) - 7.5002. Jason Spezza (26) - 7.003. Daniel Alfredsson (36) - 5.4004. Mike Fisher (29) - 4.2005. Chris Kelly (28) - 2.1256. Jarkko Ruutu (34) - 1.3007. Nick Foligno (21) - 0.8508. Shean Donovan (34) - 0.6009. Jesse Winchester (25) - 0.550---------------------------------------Cap Hit: 29.525 3 Spots to FillDefencemenPlayer/Age/Cap Hit1. Chris Phillips (31) - 3.5002. Jason Smith (35) - 2.6003. Anton Volchenkov (27) - 2.5004. Brian Lee (22) - 1.2505. Alexandre Picard (24) - 0.800---------------------------------------Cap Hit: 10.65 1 Spot to FillGoaltendersPlayer/Age/Cap Hit1. Alex Auld (28) - 1.0002. Brian Elliot (24) - 1.500 (RFA - Estimated Salary)---------------------------------------------------------------Cap Hit: 2.5Overall Cap Hit: 42.675 4 Spots to Fill (3 forward, 1 defencemen)Ok so lets assume the cap stays the same next year at 56.7 million. That leaves the team with 14.025 million left to spend on 3 forwards and 1 defencemen. 2 of the forwards should be permanent call ups from the AHL and 1 a FA signing as well as a defencemen as a FA signing. If we do finish bottom 5 then maybe we end up with Tavares or another forward who can step into the lineup right away. If not we might need to go the FA route as I'm not sure any other prospects are ready to step in. On defence I'd obviously like to see us get Jay Bouwmeester locked up for 7+ years at around 7.5 million, maybe 8 and we should have that much money left over to sign him. We NEED a #1 defencemen like this going forward. If we can't then we should definitely be looking at a guy in the 4-5 million range for a deal worth a couple of years.Forwards1. Cody Bass (22) - 0.5122. Ilja Zubov (22) - 0.8503. FA Signing or Draft Pick (?) 2.000-3.000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Cap Hit: 3.362-4.362Overall Forward Cap Hit: 32.887-33.887Defencemen1. FA Signing (?) - 4.000-8.000------------------------------------------------------------------Cap Hit: 4.000-8.000Overall Defencemen Cap Hit: 14.65-18.65--------------------------------------------------Overall Estimated Cap Hit (09/10) - 50.037-55.037Estimated Lines For 09/10Heatley - Speeza - Alfredsson - Our big line stays intact and hopefully rebounds from this off year.Foligno - Fisher - FA/Draft Pick - Foligno should only get better, hopefully Fisher bounces back and we find a scoring FA/Draft Pick for their wing.Zubov - Kelly - Winchester - Responsible checking line with Zubov who can hopefully provide a bit of offensive threat.Ruutu - Bass - Donovan - Grind line with the ultimate agitator and a guy who loves to fight. These are our energy guys.Our secondary scoring might still be weak but if we can find a good scorer to fill in on the second line, Foligno becomes even more of a threat and Zubov can handle the NHL game then we should be okay for next year.Picard - FA Signing - Picard has already shown improvements this year and often plays with Kuba. I'd love to see J-Bo as his partner signed for about 7.5.Volchenkov - Phillips - The good old shut down unit. Not expected to do anything but stop the other teams 1st or 2nd line.Smith - Lee - Smith is getting too old and Lee is still a bit young so they get the least minutes. We at least have Lee who can move the puck with Smith as the stay at home defencemen who can mentor Lee about his defensive game. Lee could probably play a similar role as Tom Preissing did a few years ago that worked very well for the team.Elliot - As long as he proves himself this year then we go with him as our goalie for at least a few Years and will be cheap for the first few years, allowing us to spend money elsewhere.Auld - No reason not be our back up again next year and will be a good influence on Elliot and a capable replacement if he gets tired or has some consistency problems.Going forward we really aren't handcuffed by bad contracts. Alfredsson is a little risky at 5.4 considering his age but if he doesn't slow down much over the next couple of years it will be fine. Fisher is a bit pricey at 4.2 for what he has given us this year but if he can stay healthy and get back to about 50 points it will be fine. You have to pay a back to back 50 goal/100 point score 7.5 and Spezza is certainly worth 7 million if he can get back to 90+ points and continue to improve his overall game. Recently he has been carrying the team on his back and if he can play a whole season like that then we will be very glad to have him. Our defencemen and goalies next year will be very affordable and if we can get our elite #1 defencemen then that should only improve our scoring while helping keep the puck out of the net. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 i stopped reading at when the bozo called me crazy..every ****ing post I get attacked even when I am not involved.. Link to post Share on other sites
Piddle Duck 0 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 i stopped reading at when the bozo called me crazy..every ****ing post I get attacked even when I am not involved..lolyoure a nut Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 i stopped reading at when the bozo called me crazy..every ****ing post I get attacked even when I am not involved..You weren't exactly attacked. I bet you read the whole thing and are actually just mad that when I break things down, the Sens aren't in as bad shape going forward has you thought/hopped. Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 wall of textDue to are games in hand I doubt we would have seriously looked at being in the Tavares/Hedman sweepstakes. However, Paavaji/Kane wouldn't be all that bad!Neil: The only problem with ditching him is that the Sens would have zero fighters ... other than Fisher?Kuba: would be nice to keep him but obviously on the likely chance he doesn't sign a cheap extention they should trade him.IMHO putting Zubov on the 3rd line is lolstastic, ditto Picard on the top pairing. J-Bo at 7.5 is a possibility but there's a lot of teams are interested... he might just even go for 8. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 You weren't exactly attacked. I bet you read the whole thing and are actually just mad that when I break things down, the Sens aren't in as bad shape going forward has you thought/hopped.The truth is they are worse than the Leafs, and they are handcuffed...I will say though that was a very good post you have and very detailed...We will see what they can do in the coming months. Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 The truth is they are worse than the Leafs, and they are handcuffed...I will say though that was a very good post you have and very detailed...We will see what they can do in the coming months.They are somewhat handcuffed for next year (well at least for any overhaul moves) true, but fortunately if the cap in 10/11 drops to $50m as anticipated they are covered by the virtue of Vermette+Smith coming off of the payroll. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Due to are games in hand I doubt we would have seriously looked at being in the Tavares/Hedman sweepstakes. However, Paavaji/Kane wouldn't be all that bad!Neil: The only problem with ditching him is that the Sens would have zero fighters ... other than Fisher?Kuba: would be nice to keep him but obviously on the likely chance he doesn't sign a cheap extention they should trade him.IMHO putting Zubov on the 3rd line is lolstastic, ditto Picard on the top pairing. J-Bo at 7.5 is a possibility but there's a lot of teams are interested... he might just even go for 8.Neil goes because we have Cody Bass who can fight. We don't need a fighter for the last 20 games or so.We really need to trade Kuba unless we are very certain we can resign him and we can't get anyone better. Whats wrong with Zubov on the 3rd line. He has looked comfortable there this year. Give him another half year of development and why wouldn't he be even more comfortable there? Also, Picard HAS played on the top pairing with Kuba for much of the year so before you laugh make sure you know whats actually going on with the pairings. It wouldn't be ideal but with what we have right now I think he fits best next year unless we break up the shut down pairing.Yes, J-Bo might even go for 8 and I have no problem paying him that. Every body wants him but not many good teams can afford him. Hopefully he wants to play in Canada and believes we are close to being a strong contender again. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 The truth is they are worse than the Leafs, and they are handcuffed...I will say though that was a very good post you have and very detailed...We will see what they can do in the coming months.Worse in the standings but not a worse team overall. No need to get into an argument about that though because we will never change each others minds. I would though like to know why you think we are handcuffed after what I have outlined. We could have up to 14 million in cap space next year depending on where the cap goes. Really all we need is a puck moving defencemen, a top 6 forward and maybe another 3rd liner. Lets say we get J-Bo for 8, we can still sign a top 6 for around 4 and fill in the other spot from with the organization or find someone for about 1 million. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Are you guys high? 8 million for J-Bo??? Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 I would though like to know why you think we are handcuffed after what I have outlined. We could have up to 14 million in cap space next year depending on where the cap goes.That's strongly dependent on being able to move Vermette/Schubert/etc for draft picks/assets/something other than salary dumps in return.Really all we need is a puck moving defencemen, a top 6 forward and maybe another 3rd liner. Lets say we get J-Bo for 8, we can still sign a top 6 for around 4 and fill in the other spot from with the organization or find someone for about 1 million.A PMD is a must... getting a top 6 forward might be achievable draft. What about the implications on the cap space 2 years from now. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Are you guys high? 8 million for J-Bo???When we let Chara walk he got 7.5. Campbell got 7.14 and he's 4 years older.I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for 8. He's 25 and can play 30 minutes a game. Now I'd prefer to sign him for 7-7.5 and I think that's what he will go for because of the cap possibly going down. I'd be ecstatic if we signed him for 10 years at 70 million though. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 That's strongly dependent on being able to move Vermette/Schubert/etc for draft picks/assets/something other than salary dumps in return.A PMD is a must... getting a top 6 forward might be achievable draft. What about the implications on the cap space 2 years from now.I'd be shocked if we couldn't move Vermette before the deadline or before the start of next year. I mean we might keep him because we want to or because no deal is good enough so we pencil him in on the 3rd line, Zubov stays in the minors and we have about 2 million less in cap space for next year. Not the worst thing really.For Schubert we can stick him in the minors (not sure if he has a 2 way) but he makes less then 1 million anyways. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him sign in Europe next year if it looks like he will be in the AHL and then he is gone for good anyways. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 That's strongly dependent on being able to move Vermette/Schubert/etc for draft picks/assets/something other than salary dumps in return.A PMD is a must... getting a top 6 forward might be achievable draft. What about the implications on the cap space 2 years from now.I'd be shocked if we couldn't move Vermette before the deadline or before the start of next year. I mean we might keep him because we want to or because no deal is good enough so we pencil him in on the 3rd line, Zubov stays in the minors and we have about 2 million less in cap space for next year. Not the worst thing really.For Schubert we can stick him in the minors (not sure if he has a 2 way) but he makes less then 1 million anyways. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him sign in Europe next year if it looks like he will be in the AHL and then he is gone for good anyways. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Sens fans, a couple of questions....1. Elliott. Is he looked at by mgt. as next years #1 goalie? Do you think he can pull it off and be successful? How good are the chances they trade for/sign someone else in the offseason. Whats your opinion on him and his status for 09-10.2. Vermette. Is he playing like a 60pt player again? Will he get dealt?thanks. Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Sens fans, a couple of questions....1. Elliott. Is he looked at by mgt. as next years #1 goalie? Do you think he can pull it off and be successful? How good are the chances they trade for/sign someone else in the offseason. Whats your opinion on him and his status for 09-10.2. Vermette. Is he playing like a 60pt player again? Will he get dealt?thanks.1. I think right now Elliott is on a trial to see if he is the guy -- note that he is a RFA so if he continues to play well they could be boned with an offer sheet. With the cap going down I think they are more than likely looking to save money here if they can. UFAs that are available. Backstrom is the gem of the group, the rest have age/performance/salary questions.2. I believe versus Capitals he got 3A... playing as a center. The man has wheels, just no hands -- if playing center works out there may be potential. I'm pretty sure every trade thought up on the web since the lockout has involved Vermette, Eaves, Corvo, Gerber, (Spezza), Schubert. Apparently Martin liked Vermette so I'd say there's a reasonable possibility he'd be included in a package for j-bo; otherwise you'd have to think if teams wanted Vermette they would have traded for him by now. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 1. I think right now Elliott is on a trial to see if he is the guy -- note that he is a RFA so if he continues to play well they could be boned with an offer sheet. With the cap going down I think they are more than likely looking to save money here if they can. UFAs that are available. Backstrom is the gem of the group, the rest have age/performance/salary questions.2. I believe versus Capitals he got 3A... playing as a center. The man has wheels, just no hands -- if playing center works out there may be potential. I'm pretty sure every trade thought up on the web since the lockout has involved Vermette, Eaves, Corvo, Gerber, (Spezza), Schubert. Apparently Martin liked Vermette so I'd say there's a reasonable possibility he'd be included in a package for j-bo; otherwise you'd have to think if teams wanted Vermette they would have traded for him by now.Yea, Elliot is for sure on trial to be the #1 next year. I actually don't really see him being offered an offer sheet. I mean most teams have a goalie for next year. Maybe Colorado, Edmonton or St. Louis could but even I don't see them going after him. I would think those 3 would go after Backstrom if he isn't resigned, possibly Khabibulin for a year or 2 or just go with whats in the organization.I don't see J-bo being traded this year. They will keep him as long as they are in the hunt for the playoffs or get a sick offer for him.As for Vermette, I think it comes down to the fact that Murray just hasn't been offered enough for a guy like Vermette. He played pretty poorly to start the season and his value was low. He has picked it up and his trade value is probably increasing each game. I rather keep him then trade him for a 3rd rounder since he's a very good utility player what CAN put up 50+ points with the right line mates.I think Vermette and Kuba could be a very good package to offer up at the trade deadline that could get us a very good return. Their combined salary's are 5.763 so it is possibly we could move them to the same team looking for defensive and offensive depth. Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 I think Vermette and Kuba could be a very good package to offer up at the trade deadline that could get us a very good return. Their combined salary's are 5.763 so it is possibly we could move them to the same team looking for defensive and offensive depth.I think so far Murray's trades have been pretty good on paper but I think he's a bit gunshy after Lapointe and Eaves/Corvo/Stillman/Commodore. He strikes me as a fairly stubborn GM that will hold out until he gets what he thinks is fair value. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 I would like to recommend to Melnyk and his cronies that Fenxis be hired to be the GM of this franchise. It is obvious he knows more than that clown Murray and he would be the right guy for the job.Might be off the wall, but I think its effective..I love reading Fenxis's analysis as its usually bang on, and not filled with homer bs that we are all guilty of providing.Just my opinion. Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 It is obvious he knows more than that clown Murray and he would be the right guy for the job.lol, first I need to be able to run a fantasy franchise (not into the ground) -- I seem to be pretty good at scouting though. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Thanks guys, good insight.I think I'm overvaluing Vermette, I keep thinking he could be 70pts. I can't tell how good Elliott will be. I guess like everyone else, I'll just have to wait and see how this "trial" goes. Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Thanks guys, good insight.I think I'm overvaluing Vermette, I keep thinking he could be 70pts. I can't tell how good Elliott will be. I guess like everyone else, I'll just have to wait and see how this "trial" goes.IMHO -- compare Vermette to other 2nd line / PP2 forwards in the league (not named David Krejci), being a 60 pt player is not unexpected. Skill-wise I don't think he'll ever be a top-3 player plus as he is a PK'er he looses out on even strength time as well.Elliott looked sharp in early play; I'd say yes he'll be #1 next year IF he can keep his focus once the adrenaline stops pumping and the press honeymoon is over. Link to post Share on other sites
Fubar The Sperm 1 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 I think so far Murray's trades have been pretty good on paper but I think he's a bit gunshy after Lapointe and Eaves/Corvo/Stillman/Commodore. He strikes me as a fairly stubborn GM that will hold out until he gets what he thinks is fair value.Also, he's probably waiting for Melnyk to give him the nod on a fire sale. There probably hasn't been a worth while offer and as long as Melnyk thinks the team has a shot he is probably telling Murray to wait to make a deal. There are practically no trades anymore until the deadline so we will have to wait till then and see whether the Sens are sellers or not.I actually think Murray has done a good job in not acting too quickly or in order to try and save his job. He probably could have made deals that would have improved us right now but destroyed our future. I think this year should just be a year we restock our prospects at the trade deadline with picks and players. With the right moves this year and in the off season there is no reason why the team can't be back in the playoffs next year and with some good young players back in the system. Link to post Share on other sites
Fenxis 99 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 I actually think Murray has done a good job in not acting too quickly or in order to try and save his job.Agreed - he's done a great job solidifying the future of the franchise with his drafting. Link to post Share on other sites
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