On The Topic Of Folding Tptk

[Zach6668 513]

So, in a thread in the LHE forum, I made a (bad) broad point about rarely folding TPTK.This isn't exactly TPTK, but it should have the same effect. That thread got me to thinking. Is there any way we can find a fold in this specific hand?CO is 45/13.5/1.28 after almost 800 hands, but plays pretty weird overall. I'm not sure I have an overall feel on his game yet, which is strange for having played so many hands with him.BB is 35/13/1.56 after 444 hands. He is someone who I used to think was a decent TAG, but his numbers suggest otherwise. He isn't very spewy postflop, but overall, isn't as good as I originally thought, several months ago. Mikey made a comment about him as well at one point, how he used to think he was decent, but no longer thinks it as well.Anyways, onto the hand. For me, it's incredibly standard for me to just call down here after the turn raise, but I think I should be looking for more spots to fold these weakish 1 pair type hands. I mean, he's shown a retarded amount of strength, after I've shown a huge amount of strength, right?Absolute PokerLimit Holdem Ring gameLimit: $3/$66 playersConverterPre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with K J 2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, Hero raises, BB calls, CO calls.Flop: 3 9 J (6SB, 3 players)Hero bets, BB calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, CO calls.Turn: 2 (7.5BB, 3 players)Hero bets, BB raises, CO folds, Hero calls.River: 5 (11.5BB, 2 players)Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.Results:Final pot: 13.5BB

[sabes99 0]

i like the way you played itare you really going to fold for one more bet on the turn? that seems awfully difficult, but he has a wide range...could he raise you on the turn with Q-J or J-10 here? i think there's a possibility of that, and with so much money in there it's pretty tough to just get away on either the turn or river

[MrNiceGuy 0]

I don't like the preflop raise; BB seems fairly unlikely to fold, and you don't feel you have good control over CO even if you do get it heads-up, so why bloat the pot from OOP?As played, I'd have trouble folding on the turn myself, but I suspect that it's the best play against a "non-spewy" player. If he was going to make a raise with an OESD, I'd expect him to do so on the flop, rather than the turn after two opponents have shown considerable strength. So the only realistic hands you can beat are worse J's. This is an odd way to play a J, but a fairly standard way to play a big hand (J9,99,33). He could be making a free-showdown raise with a J and a flush draw, but even then you're losing to AJs, and KJs is freerolling you. You're getting roughly 5-1 to call down, but it does seem. If villain rarely raises the turn without a big hand, then I think you should fold. If he likes to make plays on the turn, then you can't fold.

[Zach6668 513]

Actually, I'm glad you touched on preflop, MNG.It's something I'd started doing a bit more lately, and that's isolating weaker players who open limp OTB, when I'm SB. I have to think I've got an equity edge here preflop, right? (Yes, I know that shouldn't be the only consideration.)I'd like to hear what others say on the pfr.

[KowboyKoop 0]

I raise this preflop more often than not I think, especially if I feel I am a better player post-flop than the limper..and I want BB out. I think preflop raise is good. Is it possible that opponent has a hand like JT of spades for the pair and the flush draw?? To me, I see this as either a big hand or a pair and a big draw...I can't see him playing it this fast with just QJ or JT with no draw....but maybe that's just me. I think we're either crushed or slightly ahead..but needing to fade a lot of outs.....I consider folding here......however, the only set I could put him on is 33...surely he isn't limping with 99 or JJ.......J9 seems like it'd be an odd limp...I think villain has JT spades here...I probably call down on turn and call on river too given pot size.

[Actuary 3]

each hand is different and it's no small consideration that the turn suit is not the Top flop card suitBecause, if we want to put him on a free sd raise on the turn with a J+fd, we have to ask, why is he not raising TP on the flop? ........ (he could be hoping to better protect his hand by waiting till the turn, not anticipating that CO would raise the flop)That is to say, I'm not comfortable saying he does this with KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, on the turn, that often, when he isn't rasing the flop.Also, those hands would want to bring CO along a decent percentage of the time But, how can I forget about the Fold Equity he generates with this play. In this case, with all you've shown though, I would dscount his FE angleIf the flush draw was on the Top pair flop card, I'd consider more that he waited for the turn (but then again, I don't see mid pair making it to the turn)Now OTOH the hands that crush you, JJ/99 3 bet preflop a decent amountHow often he calls with J9 OFFSUIT is huge here. Because there is only one combo of J9 SUITED left.He's playing it like J9 and 33 more than anything.And given the discount I put on how he would play the hands you are ahead of (i.e. if he raises the turn, and not the flop, I discount worse J's)This is a good hand to discussIn conclusion, I imagine the math would tell me that folding the turn is slightly better than calling down.But very close

[sabes99 0]

i like raise pf, generally you will have the best hand, and you want to isolate down to yourself and the limper

[CoranMoran 0]

The biggest factor for me in this hand is that the turn raiser is not the same guy that raised the flop.If CO had raised me on the turn for a 2nd time, I could still view his hand range as somewhat wide.Because he could be playing for a free showdown.Or continuing his semibluff.And i call it down with my TPGK.But the fact that the turn raise came from BB convinces me immediately that I am behind.Because his play narrows his hand range immensely, in my opinion.Our out of position preflop raise represented strength. BB called this nonetheless.He then was not scared of our continuation flop bet and called again.When CO raised and we 3bet, we were clearly announcing that we were not bluffing and that we certainly had a real hand.Despite knowing that the flop could easily get capped, BB called 2 more bets anyways.What can we put him on?He should never make this play with only 1-pair.So he either has 2Pair+ or QT/T8.When we bet out on the turn, BB knows that CO could easily have called the flop 3bet to set up another raise now.But BB shows no fear of this danger by raising the turn himself.This play is never a draw, imo.(Maybe if he was heads up with position. But never against 2 aggressive raisers when sandwiched in between.)BB's turn raise tells me that I am always behind.Maybe I still have 5 outs.Maybe I'm drawing dead.Against an unknown who may not make rational plays, I often call down.But once we know that our opponent is a real player, I fold the turn with only 1 pair.Oh and I always raise this preflop.I like the chances of getting it heads up with a hand that is often ahead.I have not yet developed a fear of bloating the pot when my hand is good.--CM

[Actuary 3]

I have not yet developed a fear of bloating the pot when my hand is good.--CM

solid post.but this is Gold!Gold I tell you.

[Zach6668 513]

solid post.but this is Gold!Gold I tell you.

lol, I almost did the same thing you did.

[aim786 0]

Wow, some really good stuff here. In my opinion, BB has shown extreme strength in this hand, and therefore I think the turn is an easy fold.When BB cold calls on the flop, and then pops the turn, his range is as follows imo (in order of most likely to least likely): J9, 33, 99, QsTs, Ts8s, JJ. Against that range, you are abt a 9-1 dog, clearly you are not gettin the effective odds to call down.A general rule I use in HU situations that I think would apply here is when I 3bet on the flop and bet the turn, I will generally fold alot of my one pair hands to further action against passive/straightforward players. I think this is a situation where the rule would apply.From a balance perspective, I think we can achieve the same answer. Zach's range when he leads out on the turn after his flop action is precisely JJ+, 99, AJ, KJ. Against that range and villains range above, Zach is a 4-1 dog. He has hands he can 3bet (JJ/99), hands he can calldown with (QQ+) and hands he should fold (AJ/KJ). Note that with QQ+, he has 2 clean outs always if he's behind, and another 5 or 6 if he's against 2pair. With AJ/KJ, he's drawing dead often and has upto 3 outs that may not be good at all.All in all, I think this is a pretty clear fold. Lol sorry I cant express my thoughts as well as Actuary/CM!

[Zach6668 513]

When BB cold calls on the flop, and then pops the turn, his range is as follows imo (in order of most likely to least likely): J9, 33, 99, QsTs, Ts8s, JJ.

Good read, sir.

[Actuary 3]

Good read, sir.

thanks!

How often he calls with J9 OFFSUIT is huge here. Because there is only one combo of J9 SUITED left.He's playing it like J9 and 33 more than anything.

I guess I was biased by your talk about how often draws are fast playing and overplaying.In real games, I'd see this as an easier fold against normal players.CM nailed it with the new raiser. "Im sitting here thiking it but did not include it in my analysis. Or maybe I did..its late.I'm a stickler for proper word choice when trying to make a point, his inclusion of the word "yet" cinched it.

[GCP 0]

I don't see myself folding the turn in the games I play. We have too many hyper-aggressive players that would be trying something with spades and a straight draw or spades and a jack.

[DinkDonk 1]

As much as I am impressed by the analysis of the people advocating a turn fold here, how -EV can a calldown really be here?

[Actuary 3]

As much as I am impressed by the analysis of the people advocating a turn fold here, how -EV can a calldown really be here?

assign hands to BBAssign likelihoods to each hand, based on play and any readsDetermine outs you have and outs he has Assign likelihoods to river action based on holdings and certain "outs" hittingdo lots of multiplying and adding and dividing.