Reading Hands, Interesting Hand

[billvan 0]

Interesting hand from a 180 person SNG last night. Speculation on what the villian hand was? What did the hero do? What would you do? PokerStars Game #11230740531: Tournament #56972779, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2007/07/31 - 02:44:16 (ET) Table '56972779 10' 9-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: Player 1(3875 in chips) Seat 3: Player 3 (3293 in chips) Seat 4: Villain(4310 in chips) Seat 5: Hero (4145 in chips) Seat 6: Player 6(1500 in chips) Seat 7: Player 7 (2355 in chips) Seat 8: Player 8 (2160 in chips) Seat 9: Player 9 (2550 in chips) Player 7 posts small blind 50 Player 8 posts big blind 100 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [8h 8c]Two folds, MP1 calls 100, Hero calls 100, Two folds, SB calls 50, BB checks. (400) *** FLOP *** [8d 3d 2s]SB checks, BB checks, MP1bets 200, Hero raises 400 to 600, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls 400. (1600) *** TURN *** [8d 3d 2s] [4h]MP1 bets 400, Hero raises 1200 to 1600, MP1 calls 1200 (4400) *** RIVER *** [8d 3d 2s 4h] [7d]MP1 bets 2010 and is all-in, Hero...??????

[augmented 0]

wow its hard to imagine villain not hitting either that turn or river. he'd then have to be pretty scared of that river card and to just move in there seems really impulsive unless he hit his straight or flush. i could see him having A5d or A2d or something.88 is gonna have a hell of a laydown to make, but i dont really see a hand with that villain line that doesn't beat top set. i fold.as in, i call but i should fold.

[BrandonPL 0]

I put him on an under set or two pair. You are good, call, and take the pot! If I am right I will explain why I put him on that and if I am wrong, then there is no need to!

[billvan 0]

wow its hard to imagine villain not hitting either that turn or river. he'd then have to be pretty scared of that river card and to just move in there seems really impulsive unless he hit his straight or flush. i could see him having A5d or A2d or something.88 is gonna have a hell of a laydown to make, but i dont really see a hand with that villain line that doesn't beat top set. i fold.as in, i call but i should fold.

Intersting read and response, I will post the outcome of the hand after a few more posts......

[billvan 0]

I put him on an under set or two pair. You are good, call, and take the pot! If I am right I will explain why I put him on that and if I am wrong, then there is no need to!

I am interested to hear your thoughts on why you put villian on middle, bottom set or 2pair whether your right or wrong

[AKProdigy 0]

1) Raise more on the flop. You're giving him 400 to call in a pot of 1200. I'd probably up it to about 900 - 1000. 2) He seems like a typical bad 4.40 player. Bets 400 into a pot of 1600, then calls a raise upto 1600. This could either be a flush draw, or maybe something goofy like one pair.3) I really can't say without reads. If you have none, I'd probably call. I'm guessing he had something like K 7 and hit two pair. There's also the chance he had a flush draw and completed (I've seen bad players play it similarly, check and call raises with bad odds) but ur given better than 3:1. Definite call.

[WhatArunAA 0]

heres my analysis..villain is representing some type of diamond draw.. he leads out on the flop and then calls your raise.. then he makes a small blocking bet on the turn ( if he knows how to do that ) to keep the pot small and allow him to draw to a flush... I think he has something like 4d-5d but I still call the river shove.. the pot is sooooo large right now and this guy could be doing the same thing with 66

[rogerwilco 0]

I think a lower set, as well as 99 and TT, and Adxd are strong possibilities here, maybe AA (but that more of a long shot) - all these hands are consistent with his play in a 4.40, preflop and postflop. I'd be surprised if villain has two pair or a straight (unless it's a wheel) - open limping from MP with suited connectors isn't nearly as common as with the other hands I mentioned.Difficult spot on the river, it sure looks like a flush and essentially you only beat a bluff...

[JesterSB 0]

wow its hard to imagine villain not hitting either that turn or river. he'd then have to be pretty scared of that river card and to just move in there seems really impulsive unless he hit his straight or flush. i could see him having A5d or A2d or something.88 is gonna have a hell of a laydown to make, but i dont really see a hand with that villain line that doesn't beat top set. i fold.as in, i call but i should fold.

I would call only because this is a $4.40.

[HijackedAffairs 0]

It looks like how a bad player might play a flush draw. Bet small, call a raise, bet small again on the next street, and go all-in when the draw hits. That said, I still call because only a flush beats you and getting better than 3-1. No way anyone plays a straight like that.

[doudave 0]

I feel like he either had 45 or two pair. I don't think he had the flush draw and believe if you called you won. If he had the bottom set he would have shoved on the turn.

[Kick 0]

i think he must have a flush or a straight because he allways bet just a little bit, what seems like a little defenser bet to me, and you raised about the amount which he could call with a draw. So i think you made one mistake in this hand, the raise on the turn should be bigger to not allow him to draw.But at the end, i think i would fold (theoretically, i dont know if i would be able to fold if i have 30secounds to think about).

[Kick 0]

he might have had a flush and a straight draw and made his bets to defend, and not let you have control of the hand.

[darkrider88 0]

Yes the board is a little scary, but getting better than 3-1 I don't see how this is a fold. At least 30% of the time he doesn't have the flush here, and throwing away top set here would be throwing away money.

[jmbreslin 0]

I feel like he either had 45 or two pair. I don't think he had the flush draw and believe if you called you won. If he had the bottom set he would have shoved on the turn.

I can't see many players limping in MP1 and then calling a raise with 45 or any combo of cards that gives him 2 pair here. Gotta be a flush or a lower set. My vote is for a set.

[sabes99 0]

i think you have to call, too much out there and too many hands you can beat

[billvan 0]

Thanks for the posts so far! Some variation on opinions which is why I felt this hand was interesting and have been discussing offline with my friends and decided to post. Here is a little more information about Hero's read. Villian is a Tight Solid Player, who has not step out of line so far. Villian has showed down 2 hands up to the point, one was the nutz, one was second nut. Hero's read on Villian's potential holdings in no particular order, Big over pair AA KK etc,87, 33, 22, 4d5d, 6d4d,ad5d, ad4d,ad2d.After some more discussion I will explain how I eliminated many of these holding and my action on the river.

[cubbybri 0]

How do you think he perceives you here? I think that might make the decision easier.I could see A-rag suited here Maybe something like suited OCs as well. I do not see how he could drag you along here with two pair or a set without pushing.A suited connector makes sense here too. Just seems like he is trying to slow you down which the draws make most sense. With the underset he has you nabbed(as most don't fear set over set) and I don't think there is anyway he needs to let this go to the river as you are interested obviously in this pot.Just seems like he thinks you are in love with your hand and can stack you if he hits his draw. Not that he played it well but to me only a flush draw makes any sense to me if you are respecting he knows a little something of what he is doing. If he has no respect for how you have played, well that could change matters a bit but not very much.

[billvan 0]

How do you think he perceives you here? I think that might make the decision easier.I could see A-rag suited here Maybe something like suited OCs as well. I do not see how he could drag you along here with two pair or a set without pushing.A suited connector makes sense here too. Just seems like he is trying to slow you down which the draws make most sense. With the underset he has you nabbed(as most don't fear set over set) and I don't think there is anyway he needs to let this go to the river as you are interested obviously in this pot.Just seems like he thinks you are in love with your hand and can stack you if he hits his draw. Not that he played it well but to me only a flush draw makes any sense to me if you are respecting he knows a little something of what he is doing. If he has no respect for how you have played, well that could change matters a bit but not very much.

My image at this point was aggressive but solid, I busted 2 players at this point, showing down strong hands.

[billvan 0]

Ok, Thanks for the posts, been a cool well spoken thread! I will summarize the hand and Hero's thinking during the hand. Analyze and critique away :)Preflop: Hero [8h 8c]Hero is second in the pot, there definitely can be a case made for raising preflop here to try to isolate. In this situation Hero would probably raise 50/50, or 75/25 raising. With the blinds at 50/100 and Hero not in any chip trouble at the point, Hero is trying to make a set then play a big hand(watch out what you with for lol), instead of raising to 400 or 500 and having to fold if any players left to act pushes. Hero can still call a 3 or 4x BB bet flop a set and win a monster or get away cheaply if scary flop hits. Hero has been playing pretty aggressive up to this point and getting played back at at this point is certainly possible. I don't feel there is a "set" way to play 8's in this spot, mixing it up is how Hero's play here.Flop: [8d 3d 2s]SB checks, BB checks, Villain bets 200, Hero raises 400 to 600, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls 400. Obviously good flop for Hero. However, strong draw possibilities exist with 3 others in the hand. Villain bets $200 into Hero. Hero wants to make a raise in this spot but still not drive out action. He wants to raise enough for either the remaining 2 players to act or the original better to go over the top a large amount. Hero raises $400 to $600 total. 2 remaining players folds Villain calls $400. After having time to look back at this hand(more than the original 30 seconds to act Hero would have liked to raise just a little more, making it 800 or 1000 to go. Giving remaining players less pot odds to call, and still give them rope to commit all their chips.With the Villain call, Hero is thinking Villain is on a draw but hasn't counted out the possibility that Villain may been holding an overpair opening limping with aa or kk then waiting to see what actions brews on the turn, or just calling and setting up turn with second or bottom set. At this point hero is leaning towards a draw. With the 4 way action preflop and a draw heavy board, Hero believes Villain would not wait until the turn to try to protect an overpair or middle/bottom set. Up to this point in the tournament Villain has been a playng solid and has not played reckless.Turn: [8d 3d 2s] [4h]MP1 bets 400, Hero raises 1200 to 1600, MP1 calls 1200 Hero would have preferred a much bigger non diamond card here, but the 4 only really helps 2 hands, a5 and 5,6. Both hands if suited in diamonds are definitely possible holdings going into the flop. Villain bets $400. Hero's read on the bet is mixed. The bet certainly feels like a weak lead to try to slow Hero down on turn and hopefully let Villain see and draw on river. It is possible the Villain is probing with a8 or over pair to see if Hero is on a draw and hopng Hero just call his bet and help determine if a hand like a8 or an over pair is good. Again, Hero looking back after the 30 seconds, Hero felt he should have raised one more minimum to raised 1600 to 2k. This raise will still tempt a draw to call but definitely not give proper odds to do so. Giving 3 to 1 was borderline, but implied odds for Villain made it closer to call.When villain just calls this raise, its screaming draw. At this point Hero eliminate overpairs, middle/bottom set Hero felt that the money would all be in the middle at this point. A8, 78 unlikely as this point as I gave credit to Villain for not playing one pair so bad. Hero also felt 45d at this point unlikely as well, as Hero felt more money would have been put in on the flop. Therefor Hero has narrowed possible holdings to the following a5d, a2d, a4d, 56d, 64d. Hero is leaning towards a pair and flush draw, with pair and str8 draw becoming second likely holding, with a5 and 56d being least likely as the strength Hero has shown Hero feels money would have gone in on turn if Villain had a5d or 56dRiver: *** RIVER *** [8d 3d 2s 4h] [7d]POt $4800MP1 bets 2010 and is all-in, Hero...?????? Pot 6810Yea, that card stung, Villains' moves in, Hero getting almost 3.5 to 1 to call. What can Hero beat at this point? a8, 87 or any other 2 pair combo 33, 22, 44, 77. Hero's read says all these holdings doubtful. A bluff is out of the question here. So what does Villain have? Hero does not believe he can beat anything. Although the pot was laying 3.5 to 1 Hero lets his hand fold after his time bank expired. With the blinds still only 50/100 there was plenty of time to come back. Yes, because it was only a $4 buy in it was tempting to call just see if Hero was correct but Hero chose to play as if he would have in a higher limit tourney. I wish I could tell you what villain had, but I can't, he never showed. The next hand Villain showed down was the nutz and he went on to do cash in the tourney. I wish I could turn this post into a brag post and tell you that laydown helped me go on to win the tournment lol, I did not, however, after that hand, I did make a charge and was chip leader with less than 30 players left. However, One bad preflop call, 2 bad beats and one lost coin flip finished me off in 12th.Enjoy and discuss :)Bill

[rogerwilco 0]

I don't completely agree with your reasoning, but the only thing I can say is, that you put more thought into that hand than 99% of 4.40 players have ever thought about poker in their lifetime, so props to your read and laydown.

[Al Smooth 0]

interesting analysis...I don't think AA or KK were possibilities pre flop, but 99 and 1010 were definately in his range as well as the afformentioned A5dd and A2dd. It's a sick laydown, and like the original response stated, it's the right one, but I don't know if I can make it in an online tournament without any sort of physical read on my opponent.