Aces, Near The Bubble, 90 Man Ds Sng

[hblask 1]

Observations: 1) Big stacks have been playing most hands2) I pushed this particular villain off a hand one orbit ago with a big bet3) Despite 1), I haven't seen any bad hands go to showdown.4) 18 spots paid, 21 left, I can easily coast to the money. As usual, though, only top 3 or 4 are meaningful.Can I call this? Can I fold it?Full Tilt PokerNo Limit Holdem TournamentBlinds: t200/t400(Ante: t50)7 playersConverterStack sizes:Hero: t13780UTG+1: t14375MP1: t5055CO: t15773Button: t22068SB: t6430BB: t17790Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is UTG with A A Hero raises to t1200, 2 folds, CO calls t1200 (pot was t2150), 3 folds.Flop: J K K (t3350, 2 players)Hero bets t2000, CO raises all-in t14523, Hero ???

[tskillz187 0]

That's pukey. Bigger raise PF IMO, I guess I call off here. I'm a station.

[Wingman008 0]

If we're playing to win, easy call.If we're playing to finish in the money, fold.I think we're ahead here a good portion of the time because in my experience that large of a bet means he doesn't want any callers, if he has the King, what draws are he scared of reaching? If he has the Jack, we're still ahead.

[cubbybri 0]

#3 is the reason I lean to fold. I think it's pretty even here though. I don't see how he can push here without a K the way hand has played so far(presuming he is somewhat good player). How does he not have you on a king(the likely hand that would call him. If he has a king I'm sure he would think the chance you have it is a lot smaller. As well, you can cripple villain if he is wrong and I think it is just dumb for him to put his life on the line without a hand here.At same time, he could be tilted if he thinks you stole a hand from him. If he is a poorer player or you have been extremely laggy than I lean more towards a call but there will still be quite a bit of play here for you if you fold.Pretty tough but folding doesn't mean you cannot still win this tourney. You're in tough here.

[hblask 1]

That's pukey. Bigger raise PF IMO, I guess I call off here. I'm a station.

I meant to add that as soon as I clicked I wanted to take it back and make the PF raise bigger, it was sort of a slip. I hate the controls at FT. THey never stop where I want. I also considered just shoving PF, but decided against it. Does anyone do that?

[simo_8ball 0]

Preflop is fine.I probably check the flop.As played I instacall and expect to see JT.

[jmbreslin 0]

#3 is the reason I lean to fold.

That's actually what leans me toward calling. If no bad hands have gone to showdown, he has no reason to think a worse hand will call his push - which would be the only reason for him to push with the K (or JJ). This looks a lot more like a basic attempt to steal the pot with a draw or some other hand Hero has beaten here.

[cubbybri 0]

I just believe if only good hands have gone to showdown, we have no reason to believe this particular player does not have the goods. That is why it is tough choice IMO. If you have been taking a lot of pots without showdown, that leans to call. If you think opponent is just trying to get chips back from the previous hand, that is a call. I would need more info to make this a definite call. And since I have a healthy stack with a fold still. I can handle folding if I think I'm beat. I do not like folding here but I thik I could in this scenario.But again the tipping point to calling is very close.I guess it depends on what kind of credit to give the opponent. And nothing here gives me the proof to say, he doesn't have a king. Concrete anyway. I cannot see fault in either way if we are just going on previous experience. I would want a read here.

[rog 0]

I'm with Simo. Preflop is fine, but I would never lead here. The lead really invites the shove, so as played, I'd have to call.

[tskillz187 0]

I can't imagine not leading at a pot this late with AA and after I am an UTG raiser.I don't shove PF we have AA and want to get some action, shoves will likely only get called by hands that are reraising us PF anyways. I'd put it to like 1500ish, with antes out there and being UTG 3x is a little small IMO.

[darkrider88 0]

Tough spot, but I think a call is in order.After the flop bet you have 10580 in chips. The pot contains 3350+2000+2000+10580=17930, and it will cost you 10,580 to call, which is about 1.8-1. If you are ahead more than about 36% of the time (which you definitely are, his range includes Jx(good kicker), high pocket pairs, and maybe even a draw (Q10?). You want to be going for top 3, so calling is definitely the correct move.

[RyanPriceDotCA 0]

I chalk this up to a shitty flop for my aces and I get rid of them. Even if he hasn't made his K there's so much out there to draw to I can't justify gambling with it this close to the money.

[simo_8ball 0]

I chalk this up to a shitty flop for my aces and I get rid of them. Even if he hasn't made his K there's so much out there to draw to I can't justify gambling with it this close to the money.

Errm...the only draw out there is QT, T9 or AQ with 4 outs. I guess a Jack or a pocket pair would have 2 outs as well. You're not thinking about folding to a gutshot straight draw are you?This is simply a question of does he have us beat more than 36% of the time?

[mk 11]

simo is right, as usual.one thing to add: put yourself in villain's shoes with KQ. are you jamming the flop?

[hblask 1]

Interesting mix of opinions. Result? I folded, because FullTilt has been cruel to me, and I just wanted to cash ONCE. I had a bad feel about the call from villain, and even worse about the shove, but I don't know if that's because I'd been snakebit on FT, or because of the play by villain leading up to this one. I never really saw any good hands after this, ended up 12th or 13th for a small cash, and, even after reading through this thread, can't decide if it was the right play. I think if I had had a couple of nice cashes on FT before this, i just shove on any flop. But I was determined not to bubble YET ANOTHER tournament on FullTilt; I got my wish but am not thrilled about it.

[SBriand 4]

simo is right, as usual.one thing to add: put yourself in villain's shoes with KQ. are you jamming the flop?

That, right there, is nice.

[Al Smooth 0]

I think the raise pre was fine...no need for 4x or 5x here.Obv the flop presents a problem...If you lead, and he folds, you're relieved...if he calls, you have no idea where you stand and are forced to check flod the turn unless an Ace falls...if he shoves you're in a cr@ppy spot. Do you guys agree or disagree with these assumptions?IMHO, I think I would have checked the flop and depending on my read either smooth called to keep the pot size small and see another card/his action on the turn (this would be my most likely play vs this flop live and online), or possibly check raise if I sensed weakness (obv more likely to be able to do so in a live tournament than online).