Tough Call

[kidprodigy08 0]

this hand took place in a 10$ 180 on stars. i have no read on the villian before this hand.PokerStars Game #11157292356: Tournament #56586712, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/07/27 - 01:58:25 (ET)Table '56586712 15' 9-max Seat #1 is the buttonSeat 1: pbpoker (6465 in chips) Seat 2: CHINNOOKAN (3645 in chips) Seat 4: WeeBaws (4855 in chips) Seat 6: ilikadamoney (5314 in chips) Seat 7: craztch (9545 in chips) Seat 8: BingoKing624 (8145 in chips) Seat 9: guelph gold (1645 in chips) CHINNOOKAN: posts small blind 100WeeBaws: posts big blind 200*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to ilikadamoney [8s 8h]ilikadamoney: raises 600 to 800craztch: folds BingoKing624: raises 1000 to 1800guelph gold: folds pbpoker: folds mattchews is connected Howbout9to5 is connected CHINNOOKAN: folds WeeBaws: folds ilikadamoney: calls 1000*** FLOP *** [Jh 5h Kh]ilikadamoney: checks BingoKing624: bets 1800ilikadamoney: ?my read right here is that he has aa with no heart. given this i know i have odds to call (or push) but i'm not sure if i should commit when i know i'm behind. i would have around 3500 if i fold here, but im very confident in my read. thoughts?

[David_Nicoson 1]

Hi.Please convert your hands in the future. No-limit hold'em tournament hands go in the tournament section by convention.Taking your assumptions as given, I'd raise on the theory that he might fold but I still have a 42% chance of winning if he calls, with 32% being the break-even point.Why don't you think he has a heart?

[kidprodigy08 0]

sorry about the formatting and/or placement.i think he has a hand like aa or ak and i'm very confident in my reads. if he had either of these hands with a heart it would be the nfd, and i think he would check or bet small b/c he would be confident in his hand. this felt more to me like a protection bet with one pair at best. i didn't think there was even a moderate chance he'd fold

[kidprodigy08 0]

i guess what i'm saying is assuming i read him as well as i thought at the time, is it the right push just because of the odds, or does it depend on how comfortable i would be with 3500 chips?

[sabes99 0]

if your read is that strong, then call and see one more card...if you shove he probably won't fold, so there's no point in that playpersonally, i think the best play is probably folding

[StupidKid 0]

Ok so if you're 100% certain those are his only holding (I don't think you can be to be honest though, but lets jus say you're exactly right) then pokerstove tells us.......Board: Kh Jh 5hDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 42.727% 42.73% 00.00% 5076 0.00 { 8h8s }Hand 1: 57.273% 57.27% 00.00% 6804 0.00 { AcAd, AcAs, AdAs, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AcKd, AcKs, AdKc, AdKs, AsKc, AsKd }Thus we have 42% equity.Cue simo to do the rest of the calculations as I'm not quite sure how to do them, I just wrote it down but I'm not sure if I worked out correctly...Also sabes you can't possibly be advocating just calling the 1800 and leaving yourself with ~1.7K here and then folding a non heart turn?This is by far the worst option here, its like fold>shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>call and see a turn. IMO.

[dgostate8 0]

Fold. You are only calculating hands that do not contain a heart. He really could have a heart...not only that, is a set not in his range?

[rogerwilco 0]

this hand took place in a 10$ 180 on stars. i have no read on the villian before this hand.[snipped hand history]my read right here is that he has aa with no heart. given this i know i have odds to call (or push) but i'm not sure if i should commit when i know i'm behind. i would have around 3500 if i fold here, but im very confident in my read. thoughts?

You overestimate the strength of your read here. AA is a possible holding of villain, but in my opinion, there is noone in the world who can correctly put villain on exactly AA no heart just from reading this hand history.Muck it! It is very unlikely that you have the best hand here, and you have nearly zero fold equity if villain isn't a total idiot (1800 more into a 7500 pot if my quick calculations aren't wrong). I mean, what do you beat here? AQ maybe, but not much else and villain won't fold anything...Plus: if you ask me, his flop bet looks strong rather than weak, I think he wants you to push all-in.This isn't a tough call, it is an easy laydown.And I don't like the preflop call either, but that's a matter of playing style I guess. What kind of flop where you expecting and what did you plan to do when you called preflop?

[StupidKid 0]

Stellar advice RW, I was just about to argue that pf is pretty horrible as well with OPs chipstack. ESP if you somehow managed to put him on AA (no heart) since you have no where near the correct set mining odds.Also you have no fold equity on the flop.Fold.

[simo_8ball 0]

Raise smaller preflop.As played, fold to the preflop reraise.As played, open shovel the flop. You will usually have either the best hand, or you'll have a fair number of outs to win. You might get a hand like QQ or TT to fold as well.As played, I shovel anyway.

[sabes99 0]

Also sabes you can't possibly be advocating just calling the 1800 and leaving yourself with ~1.7K here and then folding a non heart turn?This is by far the worst option here, its like fold>shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>call and see a turn. IMO.

i'm not smart enough to read chipstacks in these posts, if the exact read is A-A with no heart then shovebut again, unless you somehow "know" that he has exactly A-A with no heart folding is the best play

[simo_8ball 0]

unless you somehow "know" that he has exactly A-A with no heart folding is the best play

Give a range for villain.

[sabes99 0]

Give a range for villain.

without any history it's tough to do that...typically, he could have A-A w/ or w/o a heart, K-K, Q-Q w/ or w/o a heart, J-J, 10-10 with a heart, and if villain is the kind to lead after re-raising pf 100% of the time, then he could have 10-10 no heart, A-K w/ or w/o the Ah, and maybe A-Q of some sortoh, and i agree with you about raising less pf

[simo_8ball 0]

without any history it's tough to do that...typically, he could have A-A w/ or w/o a heart, K-K, Q-Q w/ or w/o a heart, J-J, 10-10 with a heart, and if villain is the kind to lead after re-raising pf 100% of the time, then he could have 10-10 no heart, A-K w/ or w/o the Ah, and maybe A-Q of some sort

The big thing is that you should call if you either have the best hand OR if you have a live flush draw. The only hands you can fold against are the pairs with higher flush draws, which only make up a limited part of villain's range.

[YBravo 0]

Where's Zach to crack down on these non-converters?

[Zach6668 513]

Where's Zach to crack down on these non-converters?

Meh, the first reply mentioned it.If it had been a complete HH without removing results, cutting it off at the decision, etc, I'd have been pissed...lol.