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A Very Interesting Hand, Imo


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I am at 4 handed on the bubble of a 9 man $20 SNG. I am very deepstacked with ~4700 with blinds 30/60, the short stack has ~2k so there's no clear shortstack. My image at this table is TAG I believe as I haven't been caught bluffing but I had picked up some pots w/out showdown when I was bluffing/floating. The villain's image is pretty tight and he's fairly decent as he claims to have laid down TT preflop with 2 others all in earlier in the SNG, however he seems to overplay AK preflop by putting in a 4th raise against a guy with QQ.Blinds 30/60 -- $20 9 man Sit N GoUTG (t2405)Hero (t4675)SB (t1990)Villain (t4430)Preflop: Kd, KhUTG folds. Hero raises to t180 on the button. SB folds. Villain re-raises to t420. Hero calls t240.Flop: Jd, Td, 3d (pot is t870)Villain checks. Hero bets t600. Villains re-raises to t1300. Hero ???I flat called preflop because1) I was raising on the button and thus my range is pretty wide in his eyes.2) I wanted to hide the strength of my hand, that way if he has like JJ-88 or something and the flop comes all babies he will probly lose a lot to me.Now this is a pretty decent flop for me, I have an overpair with the 2nd nut flush draw. However, he check raises me on this flop. What would all of you do given our stack sizes, the bubble play, his previous play, etc.? Is this an insta-shove, insta-fold, or a tweener?

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So suddenly, because it's now in the tournament forum rather than general, it's a VERY interesting hand?Hmm.Oh, and instashove. You're only in trouble if he has either AdAx or AdXd.

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So suddenly, because it's now in the tournament forum rather than general, it's a VERY interesting hand?
lolol I guess so.
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In a $20 SNG, I'd call. You probably have the best hand. If you don't, you might win with the flush. If not, you just got unlucky.By the way, I'd shove preflop.

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Push.For a debatable fold you have to out Villain on only a flopped set, or, a higher flush draw with a paired card:Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 14,850 games 0.005 secs 2,970,000 games/secBoard: Jd Td 3dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 45.313% 45.31% 00.00% 6729 0.00 { KdKh }Hand 1: 54.687% 54.69% 00.00% 8121 0.00 { JJ-TT, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ad3s }With only a few more hands in his range, clear push…Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 27,720 games 0.005 secs 5,544,000 games/secBoard: Jd Td 3dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 52.089% 50.95% 01.14% 14124 315.00 { KdKh }Hand 1: 47.911% 46.77% 01.14% 12966 315.00 { TT+, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ad3s }And a few more…Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 20,790 games 0.005 secs 4,158,000 games/secBoard: Jd Td 3dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 58.745% 58.48% 00.26% 12159 54.00 { KdKh }Hand 1: 41.255% 41.00% 00.26% 8523 54.00 { JJ-TT, KJs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ad3s, KJo }

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I would be pushing in pre-flop.But as played I would probably fold as you will still be in decent shape against the other shorties.

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I will say that villain's tiny checkraise looks very strong, but what can villain have? AdQd is pretty much the only way he can have flopped the nut flush, or indeed any flush at all. He could easily have a set of jacks, but even then you're less than a 2/1 dog.

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Does anyone think I could fold based on the fact that I don't need to gamble here with blinds and stack sizes and the fact that a goal of a SNG is to cash and not to win? I mean if I win this hand I have like 9.8k but the shorties still have plenty of play left. They both have over 30 BB's.

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Does anyone think I could fold based on the fact that I don't need to gamble here with blinds and stack sizes and the fact that a goal of a SNG is to cash and not to win? I mean if I win this hand I have like 9.8k but the shorties still have plenty of play left. They both have over 30 BB's.
I wouldn't. Easy shove.
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Does anyone think I could fold based on the fact that I don't need to gamble here with blinds and stack sizes and the fact that a goal of a SNG is to cash and not to win? I mean if I win this hand I have like 9.8k but the shorties still have plenty of play left. They both have over 30 BB's.
See my post a couple above this one. Post #7My reasoning for finding a fold would be exactly that. You would still be in decent shape against the shorties.Cash first, win later. That is my (and I assume many others) goal for SNGs
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i vote for just calling, you give yourself another card to perhaps gain a more developed read, at which point you might be able to get away from it

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guys we're not that good of shape against the shorties. blinds are still really small, not enough to where we can ignore them and assume we can cash if we fold. If they are solid we will have a ton of trouble against them. I'm shoving with this hand and taking first by the horns, and I don't do that very often.

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See my post a couple above this one. Post #7My reasoning for finding a fold would be exactly that. You would still be in decent shape against the shorties.Cash first, win later. That is my (and I assume many others) goal for SNGs
ummm thats really bad advice for winning. you have to have the attitude to play for FIRST PLACE every time you play, and not just settling for making the cash. you will make a lot more money over the long run, but less scores.
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ummm thats really bad advice for winning. you have to have the attitude to play for FIRST PLACE every time you play, and not just settling for making the cash. you will make a lot more money over the long run, but less scores.
sigh this couldn't be any more far from the truth.
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ummm thats really bad advice for winning. you have to have the attitude to play for FIRST PLACE every time you play, and not just settling for making the cash. you will make a lot more money over the long run, but less scores.
Actually he is right. Well, to a certain extent. You should be willing to pass up some edges on and around the bubble of STTs in order to survive. I'm not convinced we can pass on this edge here though.EDIT: I think the misunderstanding comes from the fact that in any normal MTT you shouldn't pass up edges, but in a STT the payout structure warps equities and $EV diverges noticably from cEV around the bubble.
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:club:
I was referring to single table SNG tourneys ONLYI see your :D and raise you :D
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For those of you who say shove because I'm playing to win and folding doesn't guarantee cashing because of how much the short stacks have compared to blinds. Why am I guaranteed to win if I shove and he calls and I win this hand? The short stacks still have a lot of play (as you said) and anything can happen. I don't think if I win this hand I am guaranteed to win. Obv, if I win this hand my winning % increases, but I don't think I'm guaranteed to win if I win this hand just like I'm not guaranteed to cash if I fold.

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I was referring to single table SNG tourneys ONLYI see your :club: and raise you :D
i still stand by my :D
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and i'm saying to call not because you'll win, but because it will still be hard to cash if you fold and I call because of that. If the blinds were higher/ short stacks had less chips I'd say fold.

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For those of you who say shove because I'm playing to win and folding doesn't guarantee cashing because of how much the short stacks have compared to blinds. Why am I guaranteed to win if I shove and he calls and I win this hand? The short stacks still have a lot of play (as you said) and anything can happen. I don't think if I win this hand I am guaranteed to win. Obv, if I win this hand my winning % increases, but I don't think I'm guaranteed to win if I win this hand just like I'm not guaranteed to cash if I fold.
Ah, there IS a way to reduce some of the subjectivity from this debate; it is call the Independent Chip Model (ICM), and if we apply it to this hand, it confirms a push...1) Assume we fold. We finish the hand with 3,655 chips. Using an ICM calculator, we find out we have 27.5% equity in the prize pool.Now we need to compare this result to the possible alternative scenarios:2) We push and the Villain folds. We finish with 6.425 chips and 36.1% equity. Let’s assume this will happen 20% of the time3) We push, Villain calls and we lose. We finish with 945 chips and 12.2% equity. From my previous post above, the WORST case scenario said we lose 55% of the time.4) We push, Villain calls and we win. We finish with 9.135 chips and 42.9% equity. From my previous post above, the WORST case scenario says we win 45% of the time.5) Calculate the weighted average Equity: (36.1*0.1)+(12.2*0.55)+(42.9*0.45)=28.0%6) Compare to the equity when we fold of 27.5% and we see this is a very close decision; probably a fold given the uncertainty around the assumptions.However, if we use a more likely scenario (say the third one above) we find we have 31.4% equity…Push.Check here for links to calculators and all the background on this approach:http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat...?Number=8517129
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I haven't read any replies yet. Here's my take:First off, I don't like your PF action very much at all. I think that there are very few spots where it is correct to slowplay a monster PF in 9-man sngs, and this is definitely not one of those spots. I would reraise him there like 99.8% of the time. The time to slowplay a monster in a sng is when you can commit your opponent to the pot with a single bet post flop. Example - same situation as above, but blinds at 100/200. You raise to 600, villain makes it 1800, now I can see an argument for smooth calling. The reason is because villain is likely pushing pretty much any flop in my example, and as long as you dodge an ace you can instacall and stack him. But even in that situation it's probably better to just push pf. Don't get fancy in 9 man sngs. So, don't play a small(ish) pot here with kings. Villain says he has a hand, go ahead and see if it's good enough that he wants to risk bubbling. Pop it to like 1500 IMO. As played you have to go broke here. You slowplayed your kings so villain would have no idea you had a monster - thus you really have to go broke on most flops that don't have an ace. You have a disguised overpair with a big draw, you should be itching to get it in on this flop. Poker is hard enough, don't make it harder. You have to reraise preflop.If this were after the bubble burst I could maybe see slowplaying there sometimes, but on the bubble you're just asking to come in 4th here by letting your opponent see a flop.

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Results....looking back his play screams a monster but I'm not sure if I'm good enough to fold this. I felt like the only hands I was really worried about was AdXd, and Ad, Ax. Sure enough.....Full Tilt Poker Game #3064206348: $20 + $2 Sit & Go (23404587), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:35:44 ET - 2007/07/26Seat 2: bigkevcpa (2,405)Seat 3: iNFiNiTE88 (4,675)Seat 4: vitalo (1,990)Seat 5: sdi1362 (4,430)vitalo posts the small blind of 30sdi1362 posts the big blind of 60The button is in seat #3*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to iNFiNiTE88 [Kh Kd]bigkevcpa foldsiNFiNiTE88 raises to 180vitalo foldssdi1362 raises to 420iNFiNiTE88 calls 240*** FLOP *** [2d Td Jd]sdi1362 has 15 seconds left to actsdi1362 checksiNFiNiTE88 bets 600sdi1362 raises to 1,300iNFiNiTE88 has 15 seconds left to actiNFiNiTE88 raises to 4,255 and is all insdi1362 calls 2,710, and is all insdi1362 shows [Ah Ad]iNFiNiTE88 shows [Kh Kd]*** TURN *** [2d Td Jd] [Kc]*** RIVER *** [2d Td Jd Kc] [8d]sdi1362 shows a flush, Ace highiNFiNiTE88 shows a flush, King highsdi1362 wins the pot (8,890) with a flush, Ace highThe blinds are now 40/80*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 8,890 | Rake 0Board: [2d Td Jd Kc 8d]Seat 2: bigkevcpa didn't bet (folded)Seat 3: iNFiNiTE88 (button) showed [Kh Kd] and lost with a flush, King highSeat 4: vitalo (small blind) folded before the FlopSeat 5: sdi1362 (big blind) showed [Ah Ad] and won (8,890) with a flush, Ace highSuch a sick hand for so many reasons. And then to top it off the K comes on the turn to give me the lead and he hits a flush on the river. lololol

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