So I Got There (sh) (2/3)

[CobaltBlue 662]

Bodog 2/3 NLHE (5-handed)CO $210Cobalt $983Cobalt is BB w/ K 5 . CO just got to the table the hand before, so no read unfortunately.Pre-flop:1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Cobalt checksFlop ($9): Q T 2 (3 players)SB checks, Cobalt bets $5, CO calls, 1 foldTurn ($19): 7 (2 players)Cobalt checks, CO checksRiver ($19): 4 (2 players)Cobalt bets $14, CO raises to $128, Cobalt ?(CO has $74 left.)I think flop/turn is fairly standard, but if anyone's got a preference for a different direction, feel free to offer it. Often in these default situations, I'll continue betting if I "improve" on the turn in some manner (hitting the flush, hitting a pair, or picking up a straight draw). On the river, it seems apparent that my opponent has a flush. Is anyone wanting to muck this? Does anyone thinks there's value in re-raising him in?

[simo_8ball 1]

CO can have other flushes than Ah-Xh, and it could be a random bluff. I call. I don't think we are ahead of his range though, so I wouldn't shove.

[mtdesmoines 2]

Bodog 2/3 NLHE (5-handed)CO $210Cobalt $983Cobalt is BB w/ K 5 . CO just got to the table the hand before, so no read unfortunately.Pre-flop:1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Cobalt checksFlop ($9): Q T 2 (3 players)SB checks, Cobalt bets $5, CO calls, 1 foldTurn ($19): 7 (2 players)Cobalt checks, CO checksRiver ($19): 4 (2 players)Cobalt bets $14, CO raises to $128, Cobalt ?(CO has $74 left.)I think flop/turn is fairly standard, but if anyone's got a preference for a different direction, feel free to offer it. Often in these default situations, I'll continue betting if I "improve" on the turn in some manner (hitting the flush, hitting a pair, or picking up a straight draw). On the river, it seems apparent that my opponent has a flush. Is anyone wanting to muck this? Does anyone thinks there's value in re-raising him in?

Since I think CO would raise SH with a suited A preflop, I'm inclined to lose big with this hand if I have to. Shove.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I don't think we are ahead of his range though, so I wouldn't shove.

Not ahead of his range? We have the 2nd nuts. That means that we're going to assume that most of his range is made up of specifically the nuts? I disagree with that.I go ahead and push here. He's never folding a smaller flush and if he has the nuts, you're not gonna lose that much more anyway. I just think that he's got some flush other than Axhh at least 2/3 of the time.

[simo_8ball 1]

I just think that the overbet is more likely to be the nut flush than lower flushes.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

I think it's borderline between push and call, but, I think it's a push.

[NoBBiR 0]

I think I probably call here, but maybe I play too passively. It just seems like with that kind of overbet, my tiny king flush might get a little scared.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Let's do this.We're never folding and we'll pretend he always has the flush and therefore always calls if you push. Then it's simple. If he has the nuts >50% of the time, you should flat call (folding would technically be better once you reach a certain % but we will ignore that) and if you think he can have another flush even 51% of the time, then it's profitable to push.

[simo_8ball 1]

Let's do this.We're never folding and we'll pretend he always has the flush and therefore always calls if you push. Then it's simple. If he has the nuts >50% of the time, you should flat call (folding would technically be better once you reach a certain % but we will ignore that) and if you think he can have another flush even 51% of the time, then it's profitable to push.

Almost.There is a small chance he folds a baby flush to a shove.Then again, a player that makes this overbet with a small flush is probably the sort to instacall a shove with it. In any case, the % is greater than 0.I'm being pedantic, I know.I just think that such an overbet will normally come from the nuts or nothing.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Then again, a player that makes this overbet with a small flush is probably the sort to instacall a shove with it. In any case, the % is greater than 0.I just think that such an overbet will normally come from the nuts or nothing.

I agree that the kind of player who makes this bet with the flush is instacalling a push without thinking of the implications of it.It doesn't even have to be a necessarily small flush. I mean, he could be pushing the 3rd nuts here.Also, I think it's highly unlikely that he's putting almost his whole stack in, overbetting the pot THAT much without a flush. I stick by my percentages

I'm being pedantic

Hmm, this meatloaf is shallow and pedantic

[sabes99 0]

i think this is an easy shove, if he has a smaller flush then he stacks off to you for the extra $70 or so, and if he has you beat well then you should probably go home and cry

[IBFT 0]

I don't play much short handed... is CO really open limping an ace here?

[mtdesmoines 2]

I agree that the kind of player who makes this bet with the flush is instacalling a push without thinking of the implications of it.It doesn't even have to be a necessarily small flush. I mean, he could be pushing the 3rd nuts here.Also, I think it's highly unlikely that he's putting almost his whole stack in, overbetting the pot THAT much without a flush. I stick by my percentages :)Hmm, this meatloaf is shallow and pedantic

It's the second nuts on a SH table against a short-stack. Tell him GH if he has the nuts.

[owise1 0]

Not ahead of his range? We have the 2nd nuts. That means that we're going to assume that most of his range is made up of specifically the nuts? I disagree with that.I go ahead and push here. He's never folding a smaller flush and if he has the nuts, you're not gonna lose that much more anyway. I just think that he's got some flush other than Axhh at least 2/3 of the time.

+1Agree completely

[Footballguru 0]

insta push

[Lavitz 0]

Pushaments. He is never folding a smaller flush and for what he has invested he might even call with other random crap. I think he has nut flush a good amount of time but I think he has smaller flush/set/two pair/air enough for a push to be profitable. While he isn't calling with air obviously, he may not be able to get away from anything else he idiotically slowplayed and is never ever laying down a smaller flush here with what he has invested.

[3A 0]

As there was no preflop raise I am inclined to think he doesnt have a suited ace, maybe suited small connectors. You only were there for one hand so I guess my read might be as good as yours. I put him on an entirely different read. He flopped an open ended staight draw or a low suited flush draw, with only a 10-15% chance he has the nut draw also to be considered might be playing a set off the flop. However, with a scary board like that he is likely reraising strong with a flopped set which really makes me more inclined to think he has a draw also. The turn could be his made straight and possible flush redraw. If he is that strong he is hoping you catch something on the turn or just hope the turn doesnt pair to get you a boat.With the huge reraise on the turn I really feel that he thinks your bluffing at a flush and has a straight and possibly hops your strong enough to call with TPTK or even a set, he has no idea you really have the 2nd nuts and crushed him. I wouldn't fold if you lose with the 2nd nuts then you do, his story just doesn't add up to me and I push and get max value out of the hand.

[cwik 0]

I am pushing here.

[LongLiveYorke 38]

I don't know. I really think the overbet here means the nut flush. It must be pretty obvious to him that we have a flush. We played it exactly like our draw. I don't think any real hands check the turn, so on the river we must either have a flush or nothing (from his eyes). So, knowing that he knows that we have a flush and having him still overbet so much frightens me. Now, I'm not saying that we should fold this (by a long shot) but I think a push is going overboard. I agree with Simo that we could even get a small flush to fold with a push, so we lose a bit of value from those types of hands.

[mtdesmoines 2]

I don't know. I really think the overbet here means the nut flush. It must be pretty obvious to him that we have a flush. We played it exactly like our draw. I don't think any real hands check the turn, so on the river we must either have a flush or nothing (from his eyes). So, knowing that he knows that we have a flush and having him still overbet so much frightens me. Now, I'm not saying that we should fold this (by a long shot) but I think a push is going overboard. I agree with Simo that we could even get a small flush to fold with a push, so we lose a bit of value from those types of hands.

I'm taking the overbet to mean short stack made a flush and is willing to lose to a higher made flush. His actions mirror the hero's.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Let's figure out the "reasonable" (as far as open-limping the CO is ever reasonable) flushes...AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3hJh9h,Jh8h,Jh7hTh9h,Th8h,Th7h9h8h,9h7h,9h6h8h7h,8h6h,8h5h7h6h,7h5h6h5h5h3hThere are 16 hands we beat and 8 that we don't. For the sake of this argument, I'm assuming that he's never going to fold a flush on the river. I also think that he's much more likely to be making this huge raise with the top range (particularly the nut flushes) as opposed to the bottom since it's apparent that I've got a flush. The debate obviously lies in how much more likely. If anyone cares to crunch the numbers, I'd be grateful.

[Lavitz 0]

I know they're more unlikely but I think you have to add in other hands besides flushes because a small percentage of the time this will be air/misplayed set/misplayed 2 pair.

[PoppinFresh 0]

def. just call, it might even be a fold but I would never fold just because that's no fun

[simo_8ball 1]

I know they're more unlikely but I think you have to add in other hands besides flushes because a small percentage of the time this will be air/misplayed set/misplayed 2 pair.

I can't believe this is a set or two pair, and if he has air then raising or calling are the same.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Let's figure out the "reasonable" (as far as open-limping the CO is ever reasonable) flushes...AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3hJh9h,Jh8h,Jh7hTh9h,Th8h,Th7h9h8h,9h7h,9h6h8h7h,8h6h,8h5h7h6h,7h5h6h5h5h3hThere are 16 hands we beat and 8 that we don't. For the sake of this argument, I'm assuming that he's never going to fold a flush on the river. I also think that he's much more likely to be making this huge raise with the top range (particularly the nut flushes) as opposed to the bottom since it's apparent that I've got a flush. The debate obviously lies in how much more likely. If anyone cares to crunch the numbers, I'd be grateful.

I'd chop out the 3 bolded hands becuase it's just TOO weak to limp those from the CO. I dunno, I think that this is a super standard push here since he's got so little behind.